Bryan Caplan's Blog, page 23

Life-Years Lost: The Quantity and The Quality

A few weeks ago, the NYT reported that “The Coronavirus Has Claimed 2.5 Million Years of Potential Life.” If you read the original study, you’ll discover one crucial caveat: The authors’s calculations assume that COVID victims would have had the standard life expectancy for Americans of their age.  They freely admit that this is unrealistic and inflates their estimate:

The SARS-CoV-2 virus is known to infect and replicate in many different tissues and exacerbates prob...

The Anti-Jerk Law

You’ve probably had a boss who was a jerk.  Indeed, you may be working under a jerk of a boss right now.  Question: Would it be a good idea to pass an Anti-Jerk Law to protect workers from these jerky employers?  Like existing employment discrimination laws, the Anti-Jerk Law would allow aggrieved employees to sue their employer for jerkiness – and received handsome compensation if they prove their charge in a court of law.

I doubt many people would endorse this Anti-Jerk Law.  On what basis, th...

Donehower on the Net Fiscal Effect of Low-Skilled Immigrants

When I emailed the editors of the National Academy of Sciences report on The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Immigration about Jason Richwine’s criticism, they responded swiftly and scrupulously.  Series editor Francine Blau put me in touch with Gretchen Donehower, one of the authors of the section.  Donehower sent me the following response.  Reprinted with her kind permission.

Hi Bryan,

Thanks for reaching out.

Richwine is correct in that piece that he writes, and we actually exchanged a bunch o...

Richwine on the Net Fiscal Effect of Low-Skilled Immigrants

In Open Borders, I heavily rely on the National Academy of Sciences report on The Economic and Fiscal Impact of Immigration to estimate the net fiscal effect of immigration.  Recently one of my graduate students pointed out this post by Jason Richwine criticizing my interpretation of the results.

Among dropouts, immigrants in the 25-64 and 65+ age categories are clearly fiscal burdens, as they cost taxpayers $225,000 and $257,000, respectively. Caplan, however, is tantalized by the age 0-24 colu...

Yucatan and U Texas

Announcements:

1. I’m visiting the Yucatan after Thanksgiving.  I’ll be staying in Cancun, Chichen Itza, Merida, and Playa del Carmen.

2. To all my friends in Mexico: If you want to meet up, let me know. ¡Y si solo hablas español, mis hijos pueden traducir!

3. I’m going to be a Visiting Scholar at the University of Texas during most of December and January.

4. I will be on-campus at UT almost all weekdays, and would be delighted to meet friends old and new for lunch during my time in Austin.

5. ...

Wretched Refuse? vs. Ominous Speculation

An army of immigration skeptics warn that mass immigration paves the road to socialism and tyranny.  When they express these fears, they almost always find a receptive audience.  Even thinkers inclined to favor immigration often get cold feet when they visualize the new arrivals’ broader political effects.

Yet if you search for actual research on what economists call “the political externalities of immigration,” you won’t find much.  George Borjas himself writes: “Unfortunately, remarkably litt...

No Son of Mine Will Marry a Consequentialist!

Fantastic questions from the noble Chris Freiman (author of Why It’s OK to Ignore Politics), reprinted with this permission.

A recent survey indicates that about 80% of Americans have no or “just a few” friends across the political aisle. So, should Democrats stop being friends with Republicans, and vice versa?

Let’s ask an analogous question: should consequentialists stop being friends with deontologists, and vice versa? I assume most people would say “no.” So is political disagreement diff...

“Politically Motivated”

During the Euromaidan protests, journalists routinely described Ukraine’s prosecution and imprisonment of Yulia Tymoshenko as “politically motivated.”  The phrasing always struck me as odd.  If she were innocent, you’d expect journalists to call the charges “trumped-up” or “false.”  And this “politically motivated” meme is still going strong.*  Which raises a general question: When people dismiss charges as “politically motivated,” what do they actually mean?

As far as I can tell, the “political...

Being Normal

I’ve always been weird, but at this point in my life I feel like I understand non-weird people quite well.  If you’re still baffled, my weird friends, one simple principle captures most of what you need to know.

 

The Principle of Normality: A normal person says what others say, but does what others do.

 

Notice that this principle captures two distinct features of normality.

First, conformism.  People dislike expressing views or taking actions unless other people express the same views and take...

Impasse

I’ve spent over 30 years arguing about ideas.  During those decades, I’ve learned a lot.  I’ve changed my mind.  I’ve changed minds.

Normally, however, arguing about ideas is fruitless.  Tempers fray.  Discussion goes in circles.  Each and every mental corruption that Philip Tetlock has explored rears its ugly epistemic head.  You even lose friends.

When a conversation goes off the rails, I’m sorely tempted to bluntly assess the other party’s deep intellectual flaws.  (As I repeatedly barked at ...