Erick Erickson's Blog, page 198

Morning Briefing for December 20, 2010

RedState Morning Briefing

For December 20, 2010

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

Just a brief note: the Morning Briefing will take a Christmas vacation later this week. On Thursday and Friday and Monday we'll have some down time.

— Erick
1. Gays, Hispanics, and National Security, Oh My!

2. An Avenue for Mike Pence?

3. Potemkin Villages of Democratic faith.

4. …And, So It Begins: The Public-Sector Ponzi Scheme is Collapsing

5. Filibuster Reform - "The Quest for Absolute Power"

6. Why Ken Paxton Should be Texas Speaker, and Why it Matters

7. Obama's Path to Energy Independence?

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1. Gays, Hispanics, and National Security, Oh My!

It's not lions and tigers and bears we're dealing with this morning, but gays, Hispanics, and national security.

Over the weekend, the United States Senate voted to repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell." Suddenly there are reports in the media about gays currently serving in the military. Who knew there were any?!

But in siding with their gay constituents, Democrats threw their Hispanic constituents under the bus — they're as reliably Democrat as African-American voters, so they really don't care. The DREAM Act died.

Now the question is whether the Democrats can get enough votes for the START Treaty. According to the Constitution, they'll need two-thirds of the Senate to pass it. Republicans, who are rumored to have tried a deal to pass START and kill DADT, may very well kill the treaty now.

At least Congress will finally go home. By the way, did they ever do anything about jobs?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. An Avenue for Mike Pence?

Ron Brownstein has a very interesting article out today for National Journal about how the field of candidates is shaping up for 2012. He posits that the field is shaping up to be between managers like Mitt Romney and populists like Sarah Palin.

I think that is, largely, a false dichotomy, but if you change what he means by "manager" I think he is on to something. I'd use a word like "establishment" or even "conventional" to describe the end of the field Brownstein calls "managerial."

But there is a relevant point here that I think needs to be explored, because I this I think Brownstein hit on something that is going to be exploited, or could be exploited, by someone like Mike Pence and only a select few others.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Potemkin Villages of Democratic faith.

This New Republic article on the Democrats' abrupt loss of religious voters suffers from a fatal flaw: it's all 'how,' and no 'why.' Despite the slightly breathless tone of the author, the 'how' is both obvious and not particularly surprising: from 2004 to 2008 the Democrats actively went out and told voters that liberalism and religious belief complemented each other. The Democratic party spent a good deal of money and resources on that message, and it paid off in 2006 and 2008. Since that point, the Democrats have effectively stopped their religious outreach except among African-American voters - and their support among religious voters has effectively cratered. That's the 'how.'

'Why' is more interesting, though.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. …And, So It Begins: The Public-Sector Ponzi Scheme is Collapsing

You've been hearing for quite a while now that public-sector unions are a threat to the economic survival of the United States. With an estimated unfunded liability of up to $3 trillion (and perhaps much more), public-sector pensions are a noose around the neck of America's taxpayers and it is threatening to strangle the nation.

More specifically, you've been hearing that the expensive wage and benefits packages that union-bought Democrats have given to their union benefactors could collapse our economy. The question is, can we stop it before it it too late, or at a minimum, contain the damage?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Filibuster Reform - "The Quest for Absolute Power"

Liberals want to do away with the filibuster, in the name of "Filibuster Reform," so they can have complete control over the Senate agenda in the next Congress. Before Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) took over his position as the most powerful member of the Senate, he was against filibuster reform. Now he is for it. The fight for so called Filibuster Reform is merely a "quest for absolute power" by Senator Reid and his liberal allies.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Why Ken Paxton Should be Texas Speaker, and Why it Matters

he race for Texas Speaker is now in full sprint. The finish line will be the first week of January – and it's time for all good Texans to take action to make sure we have a conservative Speaker of the House.

Erick and Drew Ryun have written several posts detailing this fight. Joe Strauss is the incumbent Speaker, having risen to that post two years ago by garnering the overwhelming support of Democrats (65) as well as 11 weak-kneed Republicans. The result? Almost half of committee chairmanships to liberal Democrats and still others to those weak Republicans, causing a much larger percentage of Republican bills to be killed than Democrat bills, and abandonment of important measures like Voter ID.

But while it is obvious that Joe Straus should not be the Texas Speaker – it's TEXAS, after all – why should it be Ken Paxton, and why should you care?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. Obama's Path to Energy Independence?

Via correspondent Poe Leggette, the Western Energy Alliance's analysis of oil and gas leasing in the RockY Mountain states under the last three administrations . . .

Bear in mind that the Federal government is the primary owner of much of the land in several western states. Combine that with the fact that the March 2010 Lease Sale was the last one we'll see in the Gulf of Mexico for the foreseeable future, and you can begin to see how hostile the Obama administration is to domestic oil and gas exploration.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2012 Asked Another Way

UPDATE from Erick: I've posted a duplicate for Sunday so yesterday's link doesn't break. In the morning I'll take off the lowest vote getter.

————-

Due to a bunch of requests, I'm putting this up this way so you can pick from the full slate of candidates.

I have not added people like Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal because they have been fairly adamant that they are not running and are giving every hint in private that they are not running. Consequently, I'm leaving out an "other" category as well. This will also prevent the Gary Johnson v. Ron Paul fight in the other category.

In any event, here you go:

Who is your initial preferred pick for the GOP President Candidate




Haley Barbour




John Bolton




Jeb Bush




Herman Cain




Mitch Daniels




Mike Huckabee




Sarah Palin




Tim Pawlenty




Mike Pence




Rick Perry




David Petraeus




Mitt Romney




John Thune





  




Free polls from Pollhost.com

2012 Asked Another Way

Due to a bunch of requests, I'm putting this up this way so you can pick from the full slate of candidates.

I have not added people like Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal because they have been fairly adamant that they are not running and are giving every hint in private that they are not running. Consequently, I'm leaving out an "other" category as well. This will also prevent the Gary Johnson v. Ron Paul fight in the other category.

In any event, here you go:

Who is your initial preferred pick for the GOP President Candidate




Haley Barbour




John Bolton




Jeb Bush




Herman Cain




Mitch Daniels




Mike Huckabee




Sarah Palin




Tim Pawlenty




Mike Pence




Rick Perry




David Petraeus




Mitt Romney




John Thune





  




Free polls from Pollhost.com

This Time of Year

I wrote a column in today's Macon Telegraph, my local paper, about this time of year. I figured I'd pass it on here. You can go here to the Telegraph to get the full thing.

There's just so much going on this year that I think it is sometimes important just to stop and reflect on things.

This is an unusual Christmas in the Erickson household. Usually we decorate the yard, have presents neatly wrapped under the Christmas tree, and send out Christmas cards. Not this year.

In the process of buying a new house and trying to close around Christmas, we put up a tree for the kids, but everything else is on hold. A friend of mine commented the other day that Christmas doesn't feel like Christmas unless certain things happen.

. . . .

We look forward to the lights, the commercials, and the rank commercialism in the season and forget what it is all about.

The secular world has tried to wipe Jesus from the season. From banning Christmas trees in businesses to saying "Season's Greetings" to avoid offense, we've chosen to ignore the true meaning of Christmas.

Perfectly happy to rely on Josephus, Tacitus and Pliny the Younger for other bits of history, the secular world pretends those ancient historians never wrote about Jesus or his followers. Likewise, having used the Gospels of Mark and Luke as pretty good records of history for nearly 2,000 years, the world would prefer to dismiss them now as propaganda.

The dismissal would be silly if it were not so sad. Here we have billions of people around the world who worship one man as their living savior, some losing their lives because of it. We know from history that Jesus' friends were so committed to the belief that he was their risen Lord that they were willing to suffer gruesome deaths in defense of the faith.

There are others who prefer not to dismiss Christ outright, but just to diminish him. They are the more dangerous lot who like to say Christ, Mohammad, Buddha, God and Allah, are all the same or mostly the same. As long as you believe in some amalgamation of one of them, or not, you'll go to heaven.

Christ himself does not give us the luxury of believing all the world's religions lead to the same place and history does not give us the luxury of pretending he does not exist.

From Mark 14:61-62, we have this account: "Again the high priest asked him, 'Are you the Messiah, the Son of the Blessed One?' 'I am,' said Jesus. 'And you will see the Son of Man sitting at the right hand of the Mighty One and coming on the clouds of heaven.' "

In John 14:6 Jesus says, "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me."

As C.S. Lewis noted in "Mere Christianity," Jesus is either a mad man or God incarnate. And if a mad man, how many mad men have impacted 2,000 years of history and continue to gain followers? The answer, of course, is none. Even Mohammad fails on that point both in length of time and impact.

So when you get depressed this holiday season over it being not as it was or as you wanted, remember that the reason for this season remains. For unto us a child is born and those who believe in him shall have everlasting life.

An Avenue for Mike Pence?

Ron Brownstein has a very interesting article out today for National Journal about how the field of candidates is shaping up for 2012. He posits that the field is shaping up to be between managers like Mitt Romney and populists like Sarah Palin.

I think that is, largely, a false dichotomy, but if you change what he means by "manager" I think he is on to something. I'd use a word like "establishment" or even "conventional" to describe the end of the field Brownstein calls "managerial."

But there is a relevant point here that I think needs to be explored, because I this I think Brownstein hit on something that is going to be exploited, or could be exploited, by someone like Mike Pence and only a select few others.

Brownstein writes:

"At the risk of oversimplifying it, I think that the upper-income college-educated [Republican] group is looking for a CEO for the economy, somebody who knows something about how jobs are created," said veteran GOP consultant Ralph Reed, who was executive director of the influential Christian Coalition during the 1990s. "It is almost a managerial issue. I think what the more culturally conservative grassroots are looking for is a classic tea party candidate who is not intimidated by the establishment, not about to be cowed by media attacks; who will stand up and fight for them and will be a real game-changer, if elected, in terms of how Washington operates."

Republicans have typically picked nominees who fit the manager mold more closely than the populist one (although some, particularly Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, combined elements of both). But the demographic balance of power inside the GOP coalition is shifting downscale, a change that could provide a greater opening for the populists, including Palin if she runs. The party's new tilt could also produce a 2012 race that divides the GOP much more than before along lines of class and education, the same fissures that have often characterized Democratic nominating contests, particularly the 2008 race between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

"We know from history that usually, almost always, the manager wing—the mainstream conservative Republican wing—nominates the candidate," says consultant John Weaver, a longtime senior strategist for 2008 GOP nominee John McCain. "But if we are seeing real cultural shifts inside the party where we will have more blue-collar, noncollege-educated voters, that could change."

Let's ignore the labels Brownstein uses and instead view it in quadrants formed by two axes, an "x" and a "y". The "X" we will label "connects with the base at a gut level". The "Y" will be "connects with the establishment at a gut level." The ideal candidate is someone who is going to be in the top right quadrant. They connect with the base and with the establishment.

For purposes of making it through the nomination this time, unlike most other times, I would venture to say that connecting with the base is going to be more important than connecting with the establishment.

Placement on the x and y axes is very subjective. You and I can perfectly disagree on this. But I think we should both be able to agree that placement in the upper right is best for any candidate.

Right now, looking at the field, I would say that Mike Pence, Rick Perry (who I don't think is actually running), and Haley Barbour do that best. Pence, having been in the House leadership and also unquestionably being a tea party conservative fits into that bracket.

Brownstein is right that the "managerial" or "establishment" or "insider" class typically picks the nominee. See e.g. Nixon, Ford, George H. W. Bush, Dole, and McCain. Reagan and George W. Bush, however, blended both the establishment's trust and the grassroot's trust.

In a wildcard year like 2012, I think the nominee will not by the typical "heir-apparent" as the GOP usually chooses. I think it can we a wildcard and I think of all the wild cards out there right now among existing politicos, Pence makes the most sense.

Taxes

"It will be important for conservatives to draw clear lines in the sand their leadership dare not cross before the debt ceiling fight."

As was buzzing around twitter last night, if you'd said a year ago that in 2010 a Democratic House of Representatives would have voted for the Bush Tax Cuts with a greater margin than the Republicans, the rest of us would have thought you were crazy.

It is, however, fitting that Nancy Pelosi's last major act as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives was was preside over re-passage of George Bush's "failed" tax policy. The irony is rich and ripe.

Many of us, myself included, believed we could get a much better deal that we got. Nonetheless, we will now see the income tax rates stay the same and receive a payroll tax holiday — an idea first floated on the right — along with some solid business breaks the right has also championed.

We may have gotten a better deal, but this is the deal we wound up with. Seeing so many Democrats vote to extend tax cuts they said were failures was icing on the cake.

Many tea party activists will want to go after Republicans who voted for the tax compromise. I am not one of them. While I strongly disagreed and thought we could get a better deal, this is not a hill to die on. We were able to keep income tax rates down.

As James Carville said on CNN last night, this is foreplay for the GOP. The real fight comes on raising the debt ceiling. On that one we must fight hard to, at a minimum, bring some significant and wholesale reforms to key areas and work to defund Obamacare. Otherwise, we must not raise the debt ceiling.

It will be important for conservatives to draw clear lines in the sand their leadership dare not cross before the debt ceiling fight. Otherwise, the GOP, as is its tendency, will out negotiate itself.

Morning Briefing for December 17, 2010

RedState Morning Briefing

For December 17, 2010

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Obama is Failing: Does This Mean We're Not Racist?

2. Defunding Planned Parenthood

3. Tea Parties on Fire in Texas!

4. Wisconsin Lame-Duck Democrats Bust a Jailbird Out to Vote on Union Contracts

5. Repeal ObamaCare. Then, Let's Do Something Really Radical…Try Freedom.

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1. Obama is Failing: Does This Mean We're Not Racist?

The Democrats' hypocrisy goes much further than their sudden belief that compromise is heresy. From opposition to Obamacare to uttering the phrase "take the country back," Republicans have been accused of racism at every turn for doing no more than disagreeing with the President on matters of policy. In recent weeks, it's become clear that Democrats are allowed to be as disappointed and upset with the President as they want without the racism accusations hurled at them. Apparently, it's cool to oppose the President now. For the record, I opposed him before it was cool.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Defunding Planned Parenthood

Today, abortion giant Planned Parenthood released its 2008-2009 Annual Report.

Behind the colorful graphics and happy faces is a stark number: Planned Parenthood received $363 million in government grants and contracts from 2008 to 2009 alone, all at the expense of the U.S. Taxpayer and the lives of unborn babies.

How many lives are we talking? 324,008 unborn human lives destroyed in one year. How many adoption referrals? 9,433.

And that number of lives ended and women wounded will continue to rise as the amount of federal funding they receive continues to rise.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Tea Parties on Fire in Texas!

For those of you watching the race for Speaker of the House in Texas, this week saw some fantastic events where local tea party groups gathered in front of their State Rep's offices and asked them to vote for Ken Paxton over Joe Straus. I love it. This is what our democratic republic is built on-the freedom of assembly and the right to petition our elected officials.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Wisconsin Lame-Duck Democrats Bust a Jailbird Out to Vote on Union Contracts

Meet Jeff Wood, alleged serial drinker. He's a Wisconsin "independent" lawmaker who (allegedly) has a drinking problem and, right now, he's sitting in jail…Sort of.

Being one vote short in their lame-duck session, Wisconsin Democrats were apparently so desperate to shove stalled union contracts down the throats of Wisconsin taxpayers before incoming-Governor Scott Walker can take office that they busted inmate Wood out of jail to vote with them.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Repeal ObamaCare. Then, Let's Do Something Really Radical…Try Freedom.

First, we need to recognize that government is the problem with America's health care costs, not the solution. Second, we need to start coming up with some fresh and bold ideas in the eventuality that we can slay the beast of government-run healthcare once and for all. Even if ObamaCare is repealed in House, unless there are 67 senators who can be dragged away from the altar of closed-market health care to override a presidential veto, 2013 is the earliest ObamaCare can be aborted—but then what?

As a small business owner who just got hit with a $3600 insurance premium hike for 2011 and who will be paying (at a minimum) $177,500 over the next ten years just for the "privilege" of having one family covered with insurance, you can be assured that my points are more than mere rhetorical ones. If I had my druthers, I would have a catastrophic-only plan that covers emergencies and life-threatening illnesses, and pay the rest out of pocket. I'd probably save well over $125,000 in the next ten years with a plan like that—if one existed.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Failure

Barack Obama says his Presidency will fail if the tax compromise fails. Let's help him!

Nancy Pelosi is having a hard time getting enough votes. The more Republicans we get to vote no, the harder a time Nancy Pelosi will have getting Democrats to make up the difference.

Go here now and call your Congressman. Let him/her to oppose the tax compromise.

Thank You Tom Coburn

Senator Tom Coburn has had an early Christmas gift handed to him in the form of the Ominous Omnibus. Coburn, perhaps best known for making fools of the big spenders in Washington, is doing it yet again.

He has set up a database where you can dig through and find all the corruption, greed, and lunacy in the Omnibus.

If this doesn't pass by Saturday, according to the good senator, the government shuts down.

Perhaps we should let it. Go here now to call your Senator. Tell him to vote no.

Morning Briefing for December 16, 2010

RedState Morning Briefing

For December 16, 2010

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Thank You Tom Coburn

2. Omnibus Spending Bill Loaded with Earmarks and New Spending

3. Senator Ethanol, the Young Guns, and the Politically Expedient

4. A Tea Party Earmark for Paul Revere

5. The Secret Ballot Protection Act & What the Right is Missing with the Card-Check Scam

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1. Thank You Tom Coburn

Senator Tom Coburn has had an early Christmas gift handed to him in the form of the Ominous Omnibus. Coburn, perhaps best known for making fools of the big spenders in Washington, is doing it yet again.

He has set up a database where you can dig through and find all the corruption, greed, and lunacy in the Omnibus.

If this doesn't pass by Saturday, according to the good senator, the government shuts down.

Perhaps we should let it. Go here now to call your Senator. Tell him to vote no.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Omnibus Spending Bill Loaded with Earmarks and New Spending

What do you call the Senate's Omnibus Spending Bill? An Earmark Bonanza — An Earmark-A-Thon — The Earmark-bus. Clearly, this bill is an outrage to the taxpayer and conservative Senators.

The Senate is about to vote on an Omnibus Spending Bill funding the federal government for the year. House and Senate appropriators crafted a bill in secret and, just yesterday, provided text to Senators and the American people. The bill is 1,924 pages long and it will cost you $1.25 trillion, including $8 billion in earmarks. This appropriations measure is loaded with pork barrel projects, ObamaCare spending and other items on the liberal wish list.

Conservatives are outraged. Senators Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) are expected to make the Clerk of the Senate read this 1,924 appropriations bill. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) has identified 6,488 earmarks. Here is a review of what people are saying about this end of year appropriations measure.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Senator Ethanol, the Young Guns, and the Politically Expedient

Senator John Thune took to the Senate floor yesterday to criticize his fellow 2012 presidential contenders for playing politics with the Obama-Kyl tax deal.

"It is easy to stand on the sidelines and criticize this deal," Thune said. "And it would perhaps be politically expedient to stand on the sideline and criticize this tax deal. But to advocate against this tax deal is to advocate for a tax increase."

It certainly is not.

None of the conservatives opposed to Obama-Kyl, including myself, want tax rates to go up on January 1. However, we are simply unwilling to accept the party line that the best deal we could get includes a mammoth 13 month extension of unpaid unemployment benefits (thus caving after a year-long fight on the principle of paying for such extensions), an extension of current tax rates that conveniently ignores the resurrection of the death tax, and a package of tax extenders that includes all sorts of giveaways for big business.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. A Tea Party Earmark for Paul Revere

Paul Revere received a $400,000 earmark in the Omnibus Spending bill – well at least his house did. The Paul Revere House received an earmark, thanks to Congressman Mike Capuano (D-MA). It is ironic that the Tea Party movement has risen up to fight against out of control government spending, yet the elites in Washington, DC think it appropriate to soil the name of an American Patriot by funnelling federal money to the Paul Revere House.

Here are three Massachusetts Earmarks that will make your head spin . . .

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Secret Ballot Protection Act & What the Right is Missing with the Card-Check Scam

Sometimes people can't see the forest through the trees and, while pointing this out among allies during a war being waged by union bosses on the American workplace gives no great pleasure, a gentle prodding is necessary. Here it is: We need to move past the hyperbole of card check.

Once the new Congress is sworn in, card check will not happen legislatively for at least another two years, period. And, more importantly, there is a way to end the entire card-check argument once and for all by garnering support for and passage of the Secret Ballot Protection Act [let the union-bought Democrats oppose secret ballots openly and publicly]. In the meantime, there are more imperative issues to deal with that are undermining workers' rights and jobs, while fattening union bosses' wallets.

Please click here for the rest of the post.