Erick Erickson's Blog, page 153

"It's a Weak Field". No, It Is Pretty Typical.

A lot of people are taking some comfort in my post from this morning. But there is also a lot of "the field is weak" comments.

Let's review, shall we? Let's go back to 1964, which was arguably the first year of the modern campaign era. Then we'll work our way forward with those open years or years when the GOP was the out of power party.

In 1964 we had:

Hiram Fong of Hawaii

Barry Goldwater of Arizona

Walter Henry Judd of Maryland

Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. of Massachusetts

Nelson Rockefeller of New York

George Romney of Michigan

William Scranton of Pennsylania

Margaret Chase Smith of Maine

Harold Stassen of Minnesota

In 1968 we had:

Frank Carlson of Kansas

Clifford Case of New Jersey

John Lindsay of New York

Richard Nixon, then of New York

Ronald Reagan of California

Jim Rhodes of Ohio

George Romney of Michigan

Nelson Rockefeller of New York

Winthrop Rockefeller of Arkansas

Harold Stassen of Minnesota

John Volpe of Massachusetts

In 1980 we had:

John Anderson of Illinois

Howard Baker of Tennessee

George H. W. Bush of Texas

John Connally of Texas

Phil Crane of Illinois

Bob Dole of Kansas

Larry Pressler of South Dakota

Ronald Reagan of California

Harold Stassen of Pennsylvania

Lowell Weicker of Connecticut

In 1988 we had:

George H. W. Bush of Texas

Bob Dole of Kansas

Pierre S. du Pont, IV of Delaware

Alexander Haig of Pennsylvania

Jack Kemp of New York

Paul Laxalt of Nevada

Harold Stassen of Minnesota

Pat Robertson of Virginia

In 1996 we had:

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Pat Buchanan of Virginia

Bob Dole of Kansas

Robert K. Dornan of California

Steve Forbes of New York

Phil Gramm of Texas

Alan Keyes of Maryland

Richard Lugar of Indiana

Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania

Morry Taylor of Ohio

Pete Wilson of California

In 2000, we had:

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee

Gary Bauer of Kentucky

Pat Buchanana of Virginia

George W. Bush of Texas

Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina

Steve Forbes of New York

Orrin Hatch of Utah

John Kasich of Ohio

Alan Keyes of Maryland

John McCain of Arizona

Dan Qualye of Indiana

Bob Smith of New Hampshire

In 2008, we had:

Sam Brownback of Kansas

Mike Huckabee of Arkansas

Jim Gilmore of Virginia

Rudy Giuliani of New York

Duncan Hunter of California

Alan Keyes of Maryland

John McCain of Arizona

Mitt Romney of Massachusetts

Ron Paul of Texas

Tom Tancredo of Colorado

Fred Thompson of Tennessee

Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin

This year so far we have:

Michele Bachmann of Minnesota

Herman Cain of Georgia

Newt Gingrich of Georgia

Jon Huntsman of Utah

Gary Johnson of New Mexico

Ron Paul of Texas

Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota

Mitt Romney of Massachusetts

Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania

Some of them dropped out before the primaries, some after, and some garnered votes at the convention without doing much. But looking at the field, 2012 doesn't seem more or less weak than most of the others.

I'd argue that 1964 to 1980 showed the rise of conservatives and after 1980 everyone largely ceded the field of ideas to conservatives. 30 years later, some Republicans wavering, but by and large the candidates still pay homage to Reagan. If anything, the GOP field right now is a reflect of our past successes and wins.

Of the candidates listed, I think the candidate who can tap into the spirit of one year I didn't mention is the guy who will be the nominee — Reagan '76. He defied the party structure and wound up losing the nomination that year. But then the tea party movement didn't exist back them. Whoever stands up as a credible outside voice of conservatism is going to go far. Conversely, those too tied to the "establishment", whatever one might view it to be, will be hurt.

But don't tell me it is a weak field. It's a pretty typical field for the GOP.

Off to the races with the horses we have

On Saturday, several thousand people showed up in the humid heat of Atlanta to hear Herman Cain announce his bid for the Presidency.

Today, in Iowa, Tim Pawlenty will announce his bid. If you have not seen it already, go watch Pawlenty's preview. I am actually floored it is so well done.

Newt Gingrich is already in.

Mitt Romney will make a big splash soon and for all intents and purposes is fully and already in.

Then were are Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and a few others with Sarah Palin as a late entrant possibility.

I hope like heck that this is it. I hear rumblings of a few wild cards, but let's take the field as officially announced: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty. Add Mitt Romney in there because it is abundantly obvious he has been in this since at lease December of 2008 and you actually have a solid, relatively conservative field to pick from.

Republican angst over a bad slate mirrors the Democrat angst in 1991. But in 1991, the slate that was there went on in 1992 to pick the next President of the United States.

We have our nominee in this field. I can live with the field and I hope you can too.

Republicans, not just conservatives, are at risk of a self-fulfilling, self-defeating prophecy that the field sucks and cannot beat Obama. It's the economy, stupid. It always has been. It always will be. And America can do better than Barack Obama with any of the candidates we now have.

Morning Briefing for May 23, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For May 23, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Off to the races with the horses we have

2. Mitch Daniels as Mario Cuomo

3. The Perils of the Pre-1967 Proposal

4. Israel, Palestine, and Obama: Is the President Already Walking Back his Demands on Israel?

5. Nation's First Unionized Pot Farm Goes Bust, Oakland Loses Bid to Be Cannabis Capital

6. The AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka Pledges a Constant Campaign of Class Warfare

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1. Off to the races with the horses we have

On Saturday, several thousand people showed up in the humid heat of Atlanta to hear Herman Cain announce his bid for the Presidency.

Today, in Iowa, Tim Pawlenty will announce his bid. If you have not seen it already, go watch Pawlenty's preview. I am actually floored it is so well done.

Newt Gingrich is already in.

Mitt Romney will make a big splash soon and for all intents and purposes is fully and already in.

Then were are Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, and a few others with Sarah Palin as a late entrant possibility.

I hope like heck that this is it. I hear rumblings of a few wild cards, but let's take the field as officially announced: Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty. Add Mitt Romney in there because it is abundantly obvious he has been in this since at lease December of 2008 and you actually have a solid, relatively conservative field to pick from.

Republican angst over a bad slate mirrors the Democrat angst in 1991. But in 1991, the slate that was there went on in 1992 to pick the next President of the United States.

We have our nominee in this field. I can live with the field and I hope you can too.

Republicans, not just conservatives, are at risk of a self-fulfilling, self-defeating prophecy that the field sucks and cannot beat Obama. It's the economy, stupid. It always has been. It always will be. And America can do better than Barack Obama with any of the candidates we now have.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Mitch Daniels as Mario Cuomo

The parallels to 1991 continue unabated.

In 1991, Democrats and the media waited with ever increasing intensity for Mario Cuomo to get into the Presidential race. Eventually, Cuomo decided he was more comfortable being Governor of New York than facing an incumbent Republican President with a 90% approval rating.

Democrats and the media lamented the lack of a stellar, high profile Democratic candidate.

The Democrats went on to win without Mario Cuomo. The Republicans still have a strong shot without Mitch Daniels.

So who does this help now? Well, obviously it helps Mitt Romney. There will now be only one high profile gubernatorial wonk in the race. It also helps Newt Gingrich for the same reason, for people looking for someone perceived to be to the right of Romney.

But I think the guy it helps the most is Tim Pawlenty. He now has a clear shot at being the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The Perils of the Pre-1967 Proposal

There seems to be some confusion over why the Israelis should be so hostile to President Obama's suggestion that the two-state solution be achieved by returning the Jewish state to its 1967 borders. The President's supporters argue that since these borders were previously acceptable to Israel, they should be acceptable now. After all, pre-1967 Israel fought to defend those borders and they were on the table in the 2000 peace talks. Can 45 years make that much of a difference?

It is true that 45 years is not so very long in terms of the territorial integrity of the United States. We might even prefer to return to the 1967 context in which our borders were much less challenging than they are today. But what Mr. Obama seems to fail to understand is that 45 years is a very long time for Israel. While the history of the Israeli people stretches back millennia, lsrael itself has only existed for 63 years. What the President is asking is that more than 70% of that history be erased, beginning with the reasons it was deemed necessary to annex the territories in 1967, and continuing on through the failed diplomatic initiatives, UN humiliations and relentless, deadly terrorist attacks of the past decades (including the last one, as Jeff Emanuel discussed yesterday). While some have considered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's terse response to this proposal disrespectful of the President, Mr. Netanyahu might have some very real concerns that once three-quarters of Israel's past has been eradicated, would it be all that outlandish to go all the way to pre-1948? Especially under the leadership of an American president who is asking the Israelis to make this concession on the dubious grounds that hope will overcome hate?

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4. Israel, Palestine, and Obama: Is the President Already Walking Back his Demands on Israel?

As may have been expected, President Obama's decision yesterday to become the first American president to directly and overtly declare that Israel must withdraw to its 1949 borders was met with negative reactions both at home and abroad - particularly within the state of Israel, over 300,000 of whose residents currently live in the territories Obama demanded that the Jewish state cede to a future "state of Palestine."

The problem here, as I noted yesterday, is greater than the "simple" issue of creating 300,000 refugees in a new state that will not take kindly to their presence (to say the very least); it is one of Israel's overall security and ability to protect its people and defend itself against future attacks, which are currently mitigated by the presence of buffer zones and IDF personnel outside the lines within which Obama has declared Israel must recede.

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5. Nation's First Unionized Pot Farm Goes Bust, Oakland Loses Bid to Be Cannabis Capital

Last year, prior to the defeat of California's Proposition 19, it appeared as though unions had a budding new industry in which they could grow their memberships.

First, the United Food & Commercial Workers jumped onto the cannabis bandwagon. Then, the Teamsters waded into the weed growing business when Jimmy Hoffa's union unionized 40 pot growers in Oakland, California.

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6. The AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka Pledges a Constant Campaign of Class Warfare

The Leninist leader of today's labor movement, the AFL-CIO's Richard Trumka, is not happy with the progress of progressivism that the hundreds of millions of dollars his union members have forked over to buy the Democratic Party should have produced. So, he says, unions' aren't going to be in the business of party building anymore.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Mitch Daniels as Mario Cuomo

Well I got that one spectacularly wrong. As I said last week, three people close to the Governor had told me he absolutely was in. They said it was more than reading tea leaves. But they were wrong and I was wrong.

Happy to be wrong on this one.

The parallels to 1991 continue unabated.

In 1991, Democrats and the media waited with ever increasing intensity for Mario Cuomo to get into the Presidential race. Eventually, Cuomo decided he was more comfortable being Governor of New York than facing an incumbent Republican President with a 90% approval rating.

Democrats and the media lamented the lack of a stellar, high profile Democratic candidate.

The Democrats went on to win without Mario Cuomo. The Republicans still have a strong shot without Mitch Daniels.

So who does this help now? Well, obviously it helps Mitt Romney. There will now be only one high profile gubernatorial wonk in the race. It also helps Newt Gingrich for the same reason, for people looking for someone perceived to be to the right of Romney.

But I think the guy it helps the most is Tim Pawlenty. He now has a clear shot at being the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney.

Unfortunately for fiscal conservatives, there is not anyone in the race right now presently perceived by the chattering class as viable who truly lines up with small government types. Pawlenty is really going to have to explain some of his record to get there.

Huntsman is going to make a play now for the moderate voters and media as the new darling. That'll help him generate buzz and name identification. I don't see it ultimately helping him though.

And now all eyes can focus on Sarah Palin. But I suspect we're going to hear continued buzz about others possibly getting in, including now increased media speculation about Congressman Paul Ryan.

By the way, if Mourdock keeps the heat up on Lugar, I'd say we might see Daniels replace Lugar in the primary.

Yes, Tonight I'll Defend Mitch Daniels A Bit #EERS

Tonight on the Erick Erickson Show I'll be defending Mitch Daniels a bit. Believe it or not. And I'll probably rant on Saxby Chambliss some more and on No Child Left Behind.

The show starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.

You can listen at http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

Tim Pawlenty To Make It Official on Monday

Tim Pawlenty will declare his candidacy for the Presidency on Monday.

It's not like this is unexpected news, but at least he is finally making it official.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a laid-back Midwestern Republican who governed a Democratic-leaning state, is running for president and will declare his candidacy on Monday in the leadoff caucus state of Iowa, an adviser told The Associated Press.

The adviser, who disclosed the plans on the condition of anonymity in advance of next week's announcement, said Pawlenty will formally enter the race during a town hall-style event in Des Moines, Iowa.

Pawlenty will make the announcement in Iowa.

Another Bit of Data Into 2012

I don't think next year is going to be easy for the GOP. But I am increasingly convinced next year's electoral struggle for the GOP will not be fraught with the dire and awful predictions of so many, no matter who the Republican Party nominates.

It remains as it ever was — the economy, stupid!

President Obama off to destroy the Israeli State in the name of a two state solution does nothing but show he is yet again not focused on jobs or the economy. The Democrats fear mongering on medicare while refusing to offer up a budget of their own shows the same.

And now there is new data from Resurgent Repubilc that adds more data and more ability to tie the economic message to a range of Democrat actions and sustain the idea that it is the economy, stupid.

According to a new poll of registered voters,

By a margin of 55 to 36 percent, voters are more concerned that the federal government has too many regulations that will hurt the economy, rather than too few regulations to hold private businesses accountable. Republicans are more concerned about too many regulations by 77 to 16 percent, as are Independents by 55 to 35 percent. Only Democrats are concerned about too few regulations by 56 to 36 percent.

The most striking bit of the data is that 47% of hispanic voters are concerned about out of control regulations and 57% of private sector union members are concerned about government regulation.

The concern about regulations is shared by all age groups, by all income levels.

Now, the regulatory state alone is not enough to pull voters to the GOP. But, it is one more data point that Republicans have a message to sell to the voters and it is tied directly into the economic malaise of the Obama Administration. People understand the oppressive regulatory environment of the Obama Administration contributes to high unemployment, escalating costs, and slow growth.

There Will Never Be Peace In the Middle East

I hate to break the news to you, but until Jesus Christ himself returns there will be no peace in the Middle East.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

American foreign policy should be premised on strongly defending Israel and dealing with as friends those states who remain at peace with Israel.

I realize the American media does a very poor job of it, but as Jeff Emanuel noted yesterday, even today there are near daily rocket attacks on Israeli civilians from Gaza. While Palestinian spokesmen go on English language television and proclaim their undying devotion to the peace process, the very same people go on Arab television and proclaim death to Israel, death to the Jew, and pledge to push the Jewish state into the sea.

The American media rarely focuses on that because they are too busy focusing on the Israeli response to terror as some sort of provocation.

Keep in mind that Hamas is still holding a kidnapped Israeli soldier hostage as collateral for negotiation. He's been in captivity for several years.

You cannot have peace with those who would kill you and have radicalized their people against you as a way to distract those same people from the cruelty inflicted on them by their own leaders.

Golda Meir once said that "Peace will come when the Arabs will love their children more than they hate us." As long as Palestinians are strapping bombs to their children and teaching them to hate Jews, that will never happen.

Obama would be better off focusing on jobs, or at least learning how not to kill off any more in the private sector.

The Greatest Seminar Caller Ever

Last night I experienced a first and I think as long as I am on the radio I may never top the experience.

Friends, meet Candice, my first seminar caller. Not only is Candice a seminar caller, but instead of just taking the talking points sheet and reading from it, she has her liberal friend in the car with her telling her what to say.

If nothing else, consider this your laugh for the day.

Today Barack Obama Meets His Inner Richard Nixon in Libya

I half expect Benjamin Netanyahu to come to the United States today and demand the U.S. cede all territory gained from the 1848 Mexican cession back to Mexico. It, like Obama's Middle East speech of yesterday, would be a key distraction from a date and duty Barack Obama has had 60 days to get ready for.

Under the War Powers Act, today is the day Barack Obama must either get congressional support for the Libyan operation or begin a full withdrawal from Libya.

The media will probably not get the significance of the day. Richard Nixon vetoed the War Powers Act, but Congress overrode his veto. For years the left has hailed the War Powers Act as a restraint against Presidents and the military.

As John Yoo and Robert Delahunty observe in today's Wall Street Journal, Obama originally said he was acting in Libya "consistent with" the War Powers Resolution.

While many on the right believe the War Powers Act is unconstitutional. It is hard to find a liberal who agrees. The law the left championed against both Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush may very well fly apart at the hands of Barack Obama. "If American forces over Libya do not stand down today, the administration would be directly violating the Constitution as understood by Mr. Obama."

Of course we can guarantee one thing — on this historic day, Barack Obama can be expected to do nothing so much as vote present on what happens.