Erick Erickson's Blog, page 148

Short Memories And Republican Successes

Back on March 15th, I wrote a post pointing out what happens when Republicans get milquetoast — their polling goes down.

If you will go back to March 15th, there was a poll out that said the GOP hadn't been compromising enough. In fact, the poll said that "71% say the GOP is not willing enough to compromise with Obama on the deficit."

I noted at the time that the GOP had been muddying the waters with Barack Obama and the Democrats. I said that "House Republicans have been muddying the water so much since November and painting their policy positions in pale pastels. The public voted in November with bright colors — mostly in red."

I also said, perhaps counterintuitively, that the GOP needed to stop being so compromising, even though the poll suggested otherwise, and start leading. "As long as the Republicans are being milquetoast on spending and the budget, the Democrats will see the polling benefits," I wrote.

In the debt ceiling fight, it appears I was right. As the GOP has held a firm and consistent line insisting on massive spending cuts and entitlement reform, their poll numbers have gone up — exactly opposite what the chattering class of compromising good government types insisted would happen.

In a new Washington Post/ABC poll of adult Americans, the headline drawing the big buzz is that Mitt Romney is head of Obama among registered voters. That's huge and good news for Romney. It's even better than the poll suggests because that data comes from the registered voters. Obama and Romney are tied among all adults. But registered voters, unlike likely voters, also skews to the Democrats by a few points, though not as badly as among all adults.

So if Romney is ahead of Obama by 3 points among registered voters, he's probably ahead 5 or more points among likely voters. That headline, however, overshadows a more important finding.

In another indicator of rapidly shifting views on economic issues, 45 percent trust congressional Republicans over the president when it comes to dealing with the economy, an 11-point improvement for the GOP since March. Still, nearly as many, 42 percent, side with Obama on this issue.

This is among all adults surveyed. So in a pool of respondents that favors the Democrats, the GOP is ahead 3 points. With registered voters, I'd suspect the GOP is ahead more and even more with likely voters.

For the GOP to be ahead on this issue is significant. And what has the GOP message been for the past month and half? Significant cuts in spending and reforming entitlement programs.

The GOP has had a consistent message and drawn a firm line in the sand. It has been portrayed as terrible, heartless, nasty, and impractical. But the public is responding to it. The public recognizes the need for it.

I am plugged in enough to the goings on in Washington and talk to enough congressmen and senators to sense a disturbance in the force. I suspect Republican leaders feel like they have dialed up the rhetoric and positioning too much and are going to find a way to weasel out of their statements and scale back.

That is what they do.

But they shouldn't. They have the public with them. The polling reflects that. The public wants the GOP to win on this issue. We cannot rely on polls and a clearly fickle public on this issue. The polling will go up and down.

But the lesson we can take away is the one I pointed out in March — the public wants leadership. Leadership always wins in the face of milquetoast statements and compromise. As I said then and repeat now, saying the sky is falling, but then not doing anything about it really is not what any reasonable person could call a winning strategy.

The GOP has the winning strategy right now. They better not blow it or it will blow up the GOP. I hope the Presidential candidates are paying attention to this.

Morning Briefing for June 8, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For June 8, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. Short Memories And Republican Successes

2. The Infamous, Updated, Romer-Bernstein Chart.

3. Voter ID and Voter Contempt.

4. Jim Tucker's Fight to Keep Workers on the Government Dole in Louisiana

5. The Pretense of Obama's 'Other' Labor Board's Investigation of Delta

———————————————————————-

1. Short Memories And Republican Successes

Back on March 15th, I wrote a post pointing out what happens when Republicans get milquetoast — their polling goes down.

If you will go back to March 15th, there was a poll out that said the GOP hadn't been compromising enough. In fact, the poll said that "71% say the GOP is not willing enough to compromise with Obama on the deficit."

I noted at the time that the GOP had been muddying the waters with Barack Obama and the Democrats. I said that "House Republicans have been muddying the water so much since November and painting their policy positions in pale pastels. The public voted in November with bright colors — mostly in red."

I also said, perhaps counterintuitively, that the GOP needed to stop being so compromising, even though the poll suggested otherwise, and start leading. "As long as the Republicans are being milquetoast on spending and the budget, the Democrats will see the polling benefits," I wrote.

In the debt ceiling fight, it appears I was right. As the GOP has held a firm and consistent line insisting on massive spending cuts and entitlement reform, their poll numbers have gone up — exactly opposite what the chattering class of compromising good government types insisted would happen.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Infamous, Updated, Romer-Bernstein Chart.

Via James Pethokoukis comes an updated version of the graph (originally created by Obama's economic advisers Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein) that has been succinctly countering (for years) any and all attempts to argue that the misnamed 'stimulus' worked.

For those without access to the picture: it's a modified version of this graph, which was used to sell the idea that with a stimulus, unemployment would not rise above 8%; and that without a stimulus, unemployment might rise all the way to… 9%!!!!!! That last sentence is what usually gets emphasized in these discussions, and for good reason (it was a nitwit prediction). But I'd [like] to note that according to the original chart we were forecast to be having about 6.5% or so unemployment at this point, with that number dropping rapidly.

3. Voter ID and Voter Contempt.

Wow! Talk about the soft bigotry of low expectations. Democrats across America have risen en masse to fight Voter ID laws. Their talking points all read in a depressingly similar fashion. The quote-zombies vary in location, gender and complexion, but if you just read their words, they all look the same to me. The Democratic Party's argument against Voter ID is based upon voter contempt.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Jim Tucker's Fight to Keep Workers on the Government Dole in Louisiana

It appears that Louisiana Speaker of the House Jim Tucker has won at least a temporary victory in his battle to prevent Bobby Jindal from selling and privatizing three state prisons, a move which would have infused almost $100M in cash to the State's strapped budget as well as saving the state almost $300M over the next 20 years (more on that fight here). The bill failed to pass out of committee today on a razor-thin 13-12 vote, which means the standalone bill is dead - it is at least possible that the sale can be added as an amendment to a bill on the House floor (to which it is germane), but its prospects there look doubtful with Tucker leading the charge.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. The Pretense of Obama's 'Other' Labor Board's Investigation of Delta

Let's cut to the chase, shall we? Within the next several months (perhaps sooner), the odds are President Obama's National Mediation Board will find that Delta Air committed unforgivable sins during multiple union election campaigns last fall, causing the unions to lose the elections. As a result, employees at Delta will be subjected to more union elections until they—in the minds of union bosses—vote the right way (to unionize). It doesn't matter what the facts are—Delta's conduct could have been as pure as virgin snow—the NMB will rule that (at least several) of the elections must be rerun.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Ed Rollins on Sarah Palin, Texas's Success, and Romney Beats Obama #EERS

There is a lot to talk about on the radio. In fact, I didn't even get to show prep until late and I've got tons and tons to wade through over the next three hours.

You can listen live at http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

Selling Endorsements? [updated]

I want to thank Ben Smith at the Politico for letting me know about an email that went out from Eagle Publishing, our parent company. I had not seen and did not know about the email.

Just to start it off, no, my endorsements are not for sale.

I don't know who the guy is who sent the email, but he certainly did RedState no favors.

About two months ago, Hillsdale College approached me to see if I'd be willing to promote their townhall event. I was glad to. The project was a success and we subsequently followed it up with the Heritage Foundation. We've been approached by a few others I didn't much care for and I have declined to help. I guess the sales team decided to take the ball and run with it.

A sales guy at Eagle sent out an email, which you can read below the fold, which neither I nor my boss at Eagle saw before it was sent out. It all but says my endorsement is for sale. It is not.

The focus of these ad campaigns are for conservative organizations I support and am glad to help, never for candidates or groups I don't much care for. In fact, a certain Presidential candidate asked me to do one for an ancillary project and wanted me to use the word "endorse," which I would not do.

That's the situation. With me in Georgia and operations in Washington, I guess something like this was bound to happen eventually.

You can read the email below the fold.

[updated] ***By the way, this is an appropriate time to answer the question of why I have not endorsed a candidate or two you all expect me to endorse and have demanded I endorse. Apparently, one or two candidates I'd like to endorse signed on as sponsors to the RedState Gathering before the sales guys understood that I don't want candidates to sponsor out of an appearance of impropriety should I endorse them. Consequently, I don't think I can in good faith endorse candidates who have sponsored the Gathering. I may like them, but the appearance of impropriety would be too much in my mind. I don't want to mention the candidates, because it is not their fault, but for those of you emailing to have me endorse particular candidates we both like, there's why I have not and will not.

From: Chris McIntyre

Date:

To:

Subject: New: RedState Endorsement Program Featuring Erick Erickson -

Featured Today at RedState.com

xxxx:

Erick Erickson's reputation along with his rising profile, combine to

make RedState the most influential conservative blog on Capitol Hill

and across America.

Why not put Erick's influence to work for your organization?

Our new RedState Endorsement Program includes:

1. Erick's Video Endorsement (subject to final approval by Erick)

2. Sponsorship of the RedState Morning Briefing (sent 4X)

3. Delivery of RedState Dedicated Email Services (sent 4X)

4. Hosted advertising on RedState.com (interstitial banner overlay)

5. Limited Program Availability

The banner overlay, which is just one part of the program, is running

today. Please click on the following link to take a look:

www.RedState.com

Organizations with issues, candidates and viewpoints that are in line

with Erick's positions can truly benefit from his endorsement. The

program is specifically designed to provide broad, multi-channel

coverage and put your message in front of the people who can truly

support your advocacy and fund raising efforts.

If interested in learning more, I would like to schedule some time to

provide you with additional detail on what is included. Let me know

what your availability looks like.

Thanks.

Chris McIntyre

Senior Account Executive

The Human Events Group - Eagle Publishing

The Triumph of Politics

I am sure you will read a lot about Congressman Weiner and his scandal and morality and failed politicians and us versus them and David Vitter, Larry Craig and Ted Kennedy and what have you. I am sure you will. I am not sure you will read anything similar to my take on this, which is admittedly not as partisan as some other takes may be. But, I think it is the right take.

In a different age, Anthony Weiner would have packed up shop and left Congress with a bag over his head in disgrace. Certainly Congressman Lee left in disgrace, but that had as much to do with his family demands and the demands of his constituency as anything else. In noting that Congressman Weiner staying in office is a failure of morality in the present age, left-wing partisans were quick to bring up the names of Sen. David Vitter, Sen. Larry Craig, Sen. John Ensign, and others.

Instead of saying yes the congressman should leave, the partisans say, "What about this guy?" I believe this is largely because politics has triumphed over morality and we are a lesser people because of it.

Yesterday was the anniversary of D-Day. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and sailors were willing to risk everything, including their lives, to take Europe back from tyranny. They were real heroes, but also ordinary men. In this day, too often we treat people as heroes because they took a vote in Congress or spoke truth to power, whatever that means, or did something run-of-the-mill that plays to our own personal sense and sensibility without really being extraordinary. We search for heroes in an age of ordinariness.

One of the greatest fights in the country right now is politics. We play on teams. We are partisans. We have allowed Washington to acquire for itself extraordinary power over our lives on a daily basis and consequently are willing to stand by our man when our man screws up, because the fight is so important. Were the fight not so important, we would be willing to throw the bums out.

I'll just use myself instead of throwing stones in other directions. At the time of Sen. Vitter's scandal, I was fairly direct that I thought he needed to go. But, in this last election cycle though I did nothing to help in the primary, after the primary all was forgiven. Better him than the Democrat. I was much more willing to see Larry Craig driven from the Senate if only because he was not as conservative as I preferred him to be and the odds were slim to none a Democrat would replace him.

Now, feel free to ridicule me and my values, but I suspect you do the same. The point of all this is because we have allowed Washington to become too important to our lives. When Washington was not so important, the fights not so critical, and the votes not so close, we could afford for morality to triumph over politics.

Now, if we can't beat these guys in primaries, which I fully advocate for, we're left defending our own side because of what the other side will do. It's Republican and Democrat alike. Unfortunately, only one side supports disarming Washington, demilitarizing the politics of the day, and returning power to the states and the people. Sadly, that side also has a greater propensity to throw its bums out than the other. While Larry Craig left and John Ensign left left and Congressman Lee left, Ted Kennedy was heralded routinely as the liberal lion and hero of the Senate despite having killed a woman. Anthony Weiner will stay. Barney Frank stayed.

Conservatives are less tolerant of slimeballs in offce, but we too succumb. We cannot afford, so we think, to relinquish soldiers in the fight for freedom from the battlefield, no matter how immoral they may be. But we shouldn't be that way. We are better than that.

I still believe there will come a final and ultimate day. And on that day it will not matter how hard we fought to repeal Obamacare or how hard we fought to change the tax structure in the country or even how hard we fought for marriage or life or many other causes the conservative movement fights for. On that last day, all that will matter is where we placed the cross in our lives. So we should not be willing to surrender moral high ground just because the other side does. And we do surrender the moral high ground on occasion.

It should not be enough for us to say the other side is worse or the other side does this or there were those on our side who the same. It should be for us to admit we have allowed the political to triumph over morality in this country because we have ceded our power, our destiny, and our future to a few people in Washington who have no respect for us or for the values of our founders or for the freedoms that keep us free.

Our fight is not a fight to expose the other side as moral cretins and hypocrites, but to expose Washington for its failings. These are failings on both sides with both political parties willing to keep power in Washington with no consideration for the states or the people. The states have become administrative agencies of the federal government and the people are just servants to Washington.

Were there not so much at stake for either side Anthony Weiner would have been politely escorted off the stage. The left has abandoned all moral high ground and decided that he's their bad guy, but gosh darn it he is right on their issues. The feminists defending Weiner could care less what he did because however much they may claim they care about two X chromosomes more than anything else, in reality they will gladly put down the bra so long as they never have to surrender the hammer and sickle — uterine concerns ultimately take a back seat to advancing the proletariat.

The right succumbs to the same temptations and we should not let the left, in badgering us about those who have fallen short on our side, cause us to ignore that there is a place for real forgiveness and repentance. We should not be willing to throw people overboard at the drop of a hat. But we should also be willing to push people out the door who have such moral failings that they cannot possibly lead.

Unfortunately, as Washington consumes more and more power and we become more and more slaves to the state, politics triumphs over morality and we decide it is better to let the immoral stay on the playing field because we cannot spare the loss than to uphold the standards on which we will actually be judged on that final day.

Morning Briefing for June 7, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For June 7, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

1. The Triumph of Politics

2. A dumping ground for pork projects

3. No, Mr. Diamond, the Fed Doesn't Need Your Expertise

4. Supreme Court Voids Ruling Against Hazleton's Immigration Law

5. Big News From Camp Bachmann

6. Huntsman Not Ready for the Big Dance

7. The Cost of Political Pseudo-Science Shown In Two Examples.

———————————————————————-

1. The Triumph of Politics

I am sure you will read a lot about Congressman Weiner and his scandal and morality and failed politicians and us versus them and David Vitter, Larry Craig and Ted Kennedy and what have you. I am sure you will. I am not sure you will read anything similar to my take on this, which is admittedly not as partisan as some other takes may be. But, I think it is the right take.

In a different age, Anthony Weiner would have packed up shop and left Congress with a bag over his head in disgrace. Certainly Congressman Lee left in disgrace, but that had as much to do with his family demands and the demands of his constituency as anything else. In noting that Congressman Weiner staying in office is a failure of morality in the present age, left-wing partisans were quick to bring up the names of Sen. David Vitter, Sen. Larry Craig, Sen. John Ensign, and others.

Instead of saying yes the congressman should leave, the partisans say, "What about this guy?" I believe this is largely because politics has triumphed over morality and we are a lesser people because of it.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. A dumping ground for pork projects

The Senate is going to take up a bill today that fiscal conservatives need to be aware of.

It's S. 782, the "Economic Development Revitalization Act of 2011? We've issued a Key Vote Alert calling for a "NO" vote on S. 782.

This bill reauthorizes the US Department of Commerce's Economic Development Administration (EDA), which costs $500 million a year, and has proven to be nothing more than a dumping ground for pork projects. Here's just some of the wasteful projects that the EDA has spent our tax dollars on.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. No, Mr. Diamond, the Fed Doesn't Need Your Expertise

Peter A. Diamond, a professor of economics at MIT, has just published a hissy fit in the NY Times titled "When a Nobel Prize isn't enough." I won't link the piece because of the Times's paywall, so I'll just tell you what he says.

Diamond wants to be a governor of the Federal Reserve. Barack Obama wants the same thing, having nominated Diamond three times now. He had only a small amount of support from Senate Republicans, mostly from Michael Bennett and Judd Gregg. After being dissed by Richard Shelby, Diamond is now withdrawing is candidacy. (There are currently two open Fed governorships.)

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Supreme Court Voids Ruling Against Hazleton's Immigration Law

It appears that last month's Supreme Court ruling upholding Arizona's E-Verify law will precipitate a potent counteroffensive against the illegal immigration judicial defense industry.

In light of the Court's 5-3 decision validating the right of state and local governments to impose penalties on employers who hire illegal aliens, the high court vitiated a ruling against a similar ordinance passed by government officials in Hazleton, Pennsylvania.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Big News From Camp Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is bring Ed Rollins on board to run her Presidential campaign.

This is big and significant news.

Rollins was Ronald Reagan's campaign manager in 1984, a fact downplayed by a lot of people who think Reagan's landslide in 1984 had nothing to do with Rollins.

Whether you are impressed by that or not, pay attention to the next one: Rollins took Mike Huckabee's 2008 upstart campaign into overdrive and gave Romney, McCain, and the rest a run for their money.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Huntsman Not Ready for the Big Dance

Over the years I have heard presidential candidates state reasons for skipping the Iowa caucuses. It always leaves me wondering if those are the real reasons for not coming to Iowa. The most recent example of this is Jon Huntsman's announcement that he won't compete in Iowa. Apparently, Huntsman believes that he will not get a fair shake in Iowa because he opposes ethanol subsidies. In my opinion, this excuse seems to have as much credibility as "the dog ate my homework."

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. The Cost of Political Pseudo-Science Shown In Two Examples.

Richard Glover and Dr. Donald Brown are two very different men, in different nations, who work towards a common goal. Each man believes that human pollution has driven a series of chemical and physical changes in the Earth's atmosphere. Each man believes this will damage the world around us and must be fought. Neither man has any ability to objectively prove their belief. Neither man will let that lack of knowledge stand in the way of enforcing their views upon others. Both men indulge in unethical behavior that demonstrates yet another cost that pseudo-science imposes on modern society.

Richard Glover writes opinion pieces for The National Times, a newspaper published in Australia. Climate change has been a major agenda item with the Australian Left which has been in power in The Australian Parliament for the last few years. Current Prime Minister Julia Gillard is attempting to impose a carbon tax to restrict CO2 emissions. Glover apparently supports "Lady Galadriel's" approach to the issue. Thus we can treated to disingenuous passages such as the one presented below.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Weiner, Santorum, The Undefeated, and the Tea Party #EERS

Tonight, I'll give the highlights of today's Weinergate saga, including audio from the press conference. I'll delve into Rick Santorum's bid for the White House, Michele Bachmann's campaign news, and review The Undefeated.

At 8:05 p.m. ET, I'm going to spend some time riffing on the state of the tea party.

You can listen to it all at http://wsbradio.com and call in at 1-800-WSB-TALK.

Consider this an open thread.

Big News From Camp Bachmann

Michele Bachmann is bring Ed Rollins on board to run her Presidential campaign.

This is big and significant news.

Rollins was Ronald Reagan's campaign manager in 1984, a fact downplayed by a lot of people who think Reagan's landslide in 1984 had nothing to do with Rollins.

Whether you are impressed by that or not, pay attention to the next one: Rollins took Mike Huckabee's 2008 upstart campaign into overdrive and gave Romney, McCain, and the rest a run for their money.

I'm already hearing from people on the ground in Iowa that Bachmann has the potentially to make huge waves there. Given what Huck did in 2008 and Rollins' knowledge of the lay of the land, it could turn Michele Bachmann into a serious contender for evangelicals and transition her from just being seen as a tea party candidate.

Oh, and full disclosure from me: Ed Rollins and I have frequently sat next to each other on CNN and I like him tremendously, though among my conservative friends there are frequently days when I think I might be the only one who does. Heh.

If Rick Santorum Fell In A Forest . . .

With a hat tip to my friend Charlie for the title, you might have noticed .

The buzz on his announcement has been, to be charitable, non-existent on the series of tubes known as the internet. That's not indicative of a whole lot, but given the mass of grassroots he will need, many of whom are on twitter and Facebook, it cannot be encouraging to enter the race with only a whisper.

June 6, 1944

On this day in 1944, 195,700 naval and merchant navy personnel and 160,000 soldiers participated in Operation Neptune, the landing on the beaches in Normandy to begin the end of World War II in Europe.

One of the most famous remembrances of that effort is Ronald Reagan's speech to, at the time, commemorate the 40th anniversary.  The Reagan Foundation has posted it in its entirety on YouTube, which you can watch below: