Atlantic Monthly Contributors's Blog, page 861

'The Sound of Music Live!' Was a Ratings Success: What's Next?

NBC

NBC's big Sound of Music risk paid off in the ratings, so another like it is definitely on the way. What should the network do? 

The special event scored 18.5 million viewers and a great 4.6 rating in the coveted 18-49 demographic. Per Deadline, that's the largest Thursday night audience for the network since the Fraiser finale in May 2004. Tossed salad and scrambled eggs, that's a good number! This means one of two things: a) stunt-casting Carrie Underwood worked, and b) there will be more events as such in the future. 

Of course, the evening was by no means perfect from a critical standpoint, with a major weak spot being Underwood herself. (The von Trapp kids from the movie didn't like it!) So we brainstormed some perhaps better options for the next starry extravaganza. We're not blind to the necessities of stunt-casting, if NBC wants to repeat those gaudy ratings, but but here are a few ways the network could have their cake (attention-grabby stars ... ) and eat it too (... who are right for the part).

Bye Bye Birdie: In the ultimate bit of stunt casting the beloved but loutish pop star Conrad Birdie will be played by beloved but loutish pop star Justin Bieber. Ariana Grande, who is on Nickelodeon's Sam and Cat and has a hit album, will play Kim, the teen infatuated with him. In a bit of winking at the audience, older pop star Justin Timberlake will take on the role of songwriter Albert. Penelope Cruz will play his love interest/secretary Rosie Alvarez. 

Damn Yankees: In this remake of the classic story of a wannabe baseball player that makes a Faustian bargain, Scarlett Johansson would play seductress Lola. Joseph Gordon Levitt plays Mr. Applegate, the Devil. Whatever Scarlett wants, Scarlett gets. 

My Fair Lady: Though a new movie adaptation of  has been reported to be in the works with Carey Mulligan, we bet TV can get there faster. Though Downton Abbey's Michelle Dockery (Lady Mary) is super posh, she'd dress down as the flower girl Eliza Doolittle and put her pipes to use. Maybe he's too young for the role, but we'd make the infinitely charismatic Tom Hiddleston the infinitely charismatic Henry Higgins. 

Carousel: The network should take on this more challenging of Rogers and Hammerstein musicals with noted opera singer Emmy Rossum as Julie Jordan, a millworker who falls in love with the dangerous carousel barker Billy Bigelow. Hugh Jackman's done Bigelow and done him well, so we say give him the part again. 

Oklahoma!: Okay, okay so they've filmed the production Jackman was in London a while back, but if NBC wants to cast a country star in a musical this is the one to do it in. Put Broadway people in the central roles of Curly and Laurey—we're thinking Stark Sands and Laura Osnes—but make the supporting characters big time country stars. Miranda Lambert for Ado Annie; Blake Shelton for Jud. 

       

Joe Biden's Gaffe-Filled Asia Trip, as Told by China, Japan and South Korea's Media

China's "Global Times"

This week Vice President Joe Biden found himself in a tense situation as he visited Japan, China and, currently, South Korea. What was meant to be a routine visit to the three countries turned into a diplomatic peace keeping mission regarding China's expanded air zone, and the media there has been keeping tabs on how well Biden's doing.

Japan and South Korea are upset with China because it expanded its air zone into their air zones on November 23. China thinks Japan started it — it being the escalation of tensions — but the world points out that China announced the air zone after debuting its nuclear submarine fleet in early November. To complicate matters more, South Korea and Japan's presidents don't talk. As The Military Times explained, South Korea doesn't think Japan has been remorseful about the sexual slavery it put citizens of its former colony through, and they're undergoing a territorial dispute. 

Throughout the week, China's English-language state-run press have been closely following Biden's trip, with a series of pointed op-eds and pro-China news pieces. On Friday, the top story on People's Daily, the Communist party's paper of record, was a story reporting the Chinese president's request that the US respect the country's interests, with the hope that both countries would continue to "keep the bilateral relationship moving in the right direction." Japan and South Korea's independent media outlets have covered Biden's trip as well, with slightly less sass. 

The situation

Two weeks ago China announced an expanded air defense identification zone and basically claimed a giant swath of the sky that overlaps with Japan, Taiwan and South Korea's air zones. More importantly, the new air zone covers a group of islands, called Senkaku by Japan and Diaoyu by China, that both countries claim ownership of but Japan runs, as explained by Jiayang Fan in The New Yorker. China demanded all airlines announce their flight plans before entering the zone, which Japan isn't having. The US — Japan's military ally, but China's economic ally — doesn't formally recognize the zone but hasn't told commercial planes not to announce their flight plans. Biden's job was to remain impartial and tell everyone to play nice. Here's what Japan, South Korea and, most importantly, China, think of Biden and how he did.

Japan: Biden known for "slips of the tongue"

Biden's reputation precedes him, even on the other side of the world. Here's how The Asahi Shimbun, a Japanese daily paper, described Biden on Tuesday in a column urging him to "speak clearly" to China: 

In the United States, Vice President Joe Biden is often likened to “a drunken uncle at a wedding party.” He may be having the time of his life, but many around him fear he might get carried away and say something outrageous.

Biden is known to have made slips of the tongue, but that apparently is also what makes him affable and interesting.

Well, yes. The title of the column is "Clear words, not gaffes, needed from Biden in China," a request not quite met during his days in Japan. For instance, while promoting the need to integrate women in the workforce, Biden asked a group of women “Do your husbands like you working full-time?” Of course, the column had harsher words for China, which it called "a country that often refuses to accept common sense from the international community," and "an elephant riding a bicycle called ... single-party dictatorship."

China: "Careful handling better than knee-jerks"

Also while in Tokyo, Biden expressed America's concern over the expanded airspace claim, calling it an effort to "unilaterally change the status quo in the East China Sea” that might lead to "accidents and miscalculation,” according to The New York Times. Well, China didn't like that much. An op-ed in the state-run China Daily called on Wednesday called "Facts for Biden's Reference" took him to task:

First of all, despite trying to present the image of being an impartial mediator, Washington has obviously taken Japan's side. Turning a blind eye to Tokyo's provocations, the root cause of the tensions, the United States is wrongly pointing an accusing finger at China for "unilaterally" changing the "status quo" in the East China Sea.

The piece goes on to tell Biden he won't succeed if he just plans to "simply to repeat his government's previous erroneous and one-sided remarks." But once again, the real attack is on someone a little closer to home:

If the US is truly committed to lowering tensions in the region, it must first stop acquiescing to Tokyo's dangerous brinkmanship. It must stop emboldening belligerent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to constantly push the envelope of Japan's encroachments and provocations.

Once he arrived in China, Biden, in "typically pugnacious form" as The Telegraph put it, on Wednesday told a group of Chinese students waiting for US visas that challenging the status quo is part of the "DNA of every American." "Innovation thrives where people breathe freely, speak freely, are able to challenge orthodoxy, where newspapers can report the truth without fear of consequences," he said. The Global Times wasn't having that, and ended a Friday op-ed chastising Biden:

Discussing American freedom with Chinese students at the US embassy is just a "routine event" involving senior US officials during trips to China. Americans will find Chinese society does not put high demands on their country. They should also not hold prejudice toward China's so-called nationalism.  They may reflect if they need to adjust their behavior when a society as undemanding and mild as China cultivates nationalism toward the US.

China, in all its mildness, thinks everyone just needs to relax about this ADIZ thing. As the media correctly point out, other countries, including the US, Japan and South Korea, have their own airzones. Why can't China? And  a Friday op-ed in China Daily titled "Careful handling better than knee-jerks," praises the US for trying to "be more reasonable after its initial response of dispatching bombers," since Biden hasn't called out right for China to retract its new air zone. The op-ed argues that everyone is kind of just overreacting, to be honest:

The initial response in some countries was so exaggerated you would think China was going to shoot down any plane flying into the ADIZ, something that China has never said it would do, and, of course, has no intention of doing.

South Korea: Not quite ready to "place its bet" on US policy

On Friday, Biden assured South Korea that America has its back. “The United States never says anything it does not do. It’s never been a good bet to bet against America," Biden said. "And America will continue to place its bet on South Korea.” Of course, according to The Korea Herald, there's been some skepticism on America's "strategic shift" in Asia due to America's economic problems. 

His mention of the rebalancing policy came as skepticism over the strategy has deepened due to the financial challenges in Washington, including the congressionally mandated budget cuts, also known as the “sequestration,” and other domestic and external conundrums.

As South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reports on Friday, "there had been concerns that Washington's position appeared to have softened since," the B-52s flew over the ADIZ unannounced. The US repeated that it will not recognize the zone, but also encourages commercial airlines to announce their travel plans through the zone to China as a safety precaution. In fact, Korea is finalizing plans to extend its own air zone into the zone that China claimed. Biden, in a very diplomatic and gaffe-free way, said he "appreciated President Park's explanation and South Korea's efforts," and that both sides would "continue close consultations on this issue," though everyone wanted to know America's stance, reports Yonhap. Vague, measured and not too quotable — South Korea was by far the least Biden-like stop on the tour. 

       

Christian Bale and the Actors Who Work Least in Their Native Accents

Relativity Media

With Out of the Furnace opening this weekend, and American Hustle preparing to assault taste levels across America starting next Friday, Christian Bale is going to be doing a whole lot of what he does best: acting in an American accent. We're tempted to say he's the major actor who works least within his own accent, but we wanted to make sure, so we took a look at a handful of the performers most often asked to play outside their native tongue.

Christian Bale: 15%

Bale is a strong example of an actor who very rarely plays characters who are from where he's from. That'd be the UK. In his last 20 films, Bale has played Brits only three times: The Prestige, The New World, and Reign of Fire. Sixteen other times, he's played Americans. Once, he played a Greek, but it's not polite to talk about Captain Corelli's Mandolin. And he's trending ever more American, including every one of his last ten roles. Batman played a big part in this trend, but even now that he's placed the cowl on the shelf, he continues to work within the muddy flatness of American English. Which accent he chooses to indulge in as Moses in Ridley Scott's upcoming Exodus could be a streak-breaking question.

Meryl Streep: 90%

Okay, this one is purely instructive. Meryl Streep -- queen of accents -- would probably be an American actress who plays non-American quite a bit, right? Not lately. In her last 20 films, Streep has only played Brits twice -- The Iron Lady and Julie and Julia (both Oscar-nominated, however). The flow of accents just doesn't travel this way. Americans don't play Brits (or Aussies, or Kiwis, or Italians), it's the other way around.

Gary Oldman: 40%

You don't even have to have that great of an American accent to play Americans constantly. Gary Oldman's native London accent has been repeatedly called upon to contort itself into any number of American dialects, all with the same chewy results. His numbers are more balanced than Bale's. He's played Brits seven times in his last 20 films -- plus one character of Vague Middle-European extraction in Red Riding Hood -- to his twelve American roles. You can't even say that the Batman films -- where he played police-commissioner James Gordon -- were padding his stats, since his role as Sirius Black in the Harry Potter franchise provided more than enough balance.

Naomi Watts: 10%

Watts is something of a hybrid case, since she was born in Great Britain and lived there until she was 14, at which point she moved to Australia. She's most often described as an Aussie actress, though she's only played women from there twice in her past 20 roles -- once in Ellie Parker and most recently in the son-swapping drama Adore. In that same spans, she's played Brits five times, including her most recent Oscar nomination for The Impossible and Woody Allen's You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger (below), Russian once (Eastern Promises), and Americans twelve times.

Hugh Jackman: 15%

Aussies end up being the actors most often called upon to stray from their native accent, both because Hollywood doesn't make very many movies set in Australia, and also because (we suspect) many American producers and execs figure that Aussies and Brits are interchangeable. And so we have Jackman, who's played almost as many Aussies (3) as Brits (4) in his last 20 films. He's still a predominantly American-accented performer these days, though, padded out a bit by alllll those movies where he's played Wolverine.

Toni Collette: 35%

Collette's another Aussie who has played the majority of her highest-profile roles in an American accent (including her Oscar-nominated role in The Sixth Sense). But she has actually managed to play Aussie in a whopping (for this list, anyway) seven roles in her last 20. Most of them are small Australian films that never got released theatrically in the States, but props to Ms. Collette for keeping it real and remembering where she came from. She even managed to get to stay in her own accent in the California-set Enough Said this year.

Mia Wasikowska (20%) and Isla Fisher (6%)

These two actresses are too young to properly compare them to their more veteran counterparts. Still, it's worth noting that Wasikowska (7 Americans, 4 Brits, 3 Aussies, 1 European) has worked far more often than Fisher, who has only played Aussie once in her last 15 roles. 

Melanie Lynskey: 5%

As few films as Hollywood makes in Australia, they make even fewer in New Zealand (well, aside from the ones set in vast fantasy lands). So it's no surprise that a reliable supporting performer like Lynskey wouldn't have too many Kiwi roles in her filmography. She's only played characters with her native accent twice in her past 20 roles, instead playing almost exclusively Americans, to the point where -- despite the fact that her breakthrough role was in the New Zealand-set Heavenly Creatures -- you probably forgot she wasn't American at all. Lynskey would be the performer on this list who worked the least in her native accent if it were not for …

Nicole Kidman: 0% Amazingly, for an actress who is so readily identifiable as Australian, Kidman has not played Aussie even once in her past 20 film roles. She was even in a film called Australia -- AUSTRALIA! -- and even there she played an Englishwoman. In that span, Kidman has played three Brits, provided we are willing to interpret the vague liltings of her voice in the fantasy-set Golden Compass as British, as opposed to, like, elvish or something. She's played more Italians (Nine) and Africans (The Interpreter) than she's played Aussies.  That feisty harpoon-wielder from Dead Calm is gone. Long gone.
       

The Minds That Nelson Mandela Changed

Associated Press

The furious, angry reaction from some conservatives to praise for Nelson Mandela masks the more important change: the leader's steady, inevitable embrace by his one-time opponents. Mandela's power didn't lie in evoking fury. It stemmed from changing minds.

The signal moment in America's relationship to Mandela and South Africa's racist system of apartheid came in 1986, when President Ronald Reagan vetoed a measure that would impose economic sanctions against the country. To lift the sanctions, South Africa would need to meet a number of requirements, including the release of Mandela from the prison in which he'd been held captive since the 1960s. (Captivity initiated, in part, by the CIA tipping off the South African government.)

Congress overrode Reagan's veto, putting the sanctions into place, but not before Reagan convinced a number of senators to his point of view. The Philadelphia Inquirer listed them: "Thad Cochran of Mississippi, Robert Dole of Kansas, Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, Don Nickles of Oklahoma, Alan K. Simpson of Wyoming and Ted Stevens of Alaska" — as well as Barry Goldwater of Arizona.

Cochran and Hatch are still in the Senate, still representing those states. Cochran on Friday announced that he'd seek another term, his seventh. But also on Friday, Cochran also released another statement, making clear that the activist's life had moved into the realm of the admirable. Mandela, he wrote, "will be remembered for his courage, sacrifices and leadership during troubled times." Hatch came around too. His statement read, in part:

From combatting the immoral apartheid regime to his time presiding over the country’s peaceful transition to democracy as President of South Africa, Nelson Mandela’s dignity, courage and conviction made him a lion among men. ... The loss of such a great man will be felt and borne by us all.

Dole and Simpson have similarly recognized Mandela. Last October, Mandela was awarded the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics' Bob Dole leadership prize, with the organization's director declaring that Mandela is "the perfect example of an individual who fought for justice through the political system in place." Simpson, in an interview this summer, had a telling remark: Mandela, he said, "had a look of peace — that he had made peace with himself, peace with the horror of what he went through and decided that – as my mother used to say, 'hatred corrodes the container it's carried in.'"

The progressive watchdog group Media Matters picked out a number of examples in which other conservatives announced following Mandela's death that their minds had been changed — or, in the case of the National Review's Deroy Murdock, that he was (all caps, bolded type) "WRONG."

Nelson Mandela turned out to be one of the 20th Century’s great moral leaders, right up there with Mahatma Gandhi and Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. He also was a statesman of considerable weight. If not as significant on the global stage as FDR, Winston Churchill, and Ronald Reagan, he approaches Margaret Thatcher as a national leader with major international reach.

Matt Lewis, at the conservative Daily Caller, outlined how Mandela "surprised" the right. "In hindsight, of course, some Americans now have egg on their faces," Lewis writes. "It’s always safer to assume the worst and then beg forgiveness later."

One of the most important assessments was that of F. W. de Klerk, the last president of apartheid-era South Africa and the leader that preceded Mandela. De Klerk long held that the country's incarceration of Mandela and its racist past were unfathomable errors, but as the one-time embodiment of them, his embrace of Mandela wasn't a certainty. In the wake of Mandela's death, de Klerk described the beginning of the relationship that resulted in their jointly winning the Nobel Peace Prize. "He had an aura around him, an aura of dignity and an aura of authority [that] I immediately felt," News24 reports his saying. "My gut reaction was, 'I like this man'."

Another other world leader offered praise to Mandela who might not be expected to: Ronald Reagan. Near the end of his presidency — but only two years after that vote in the Senate — Reagan demanded that Mandela be released from prison. From The New York Times' report that year:

In Santa Barbara, Calif., near President Reagan's ranch, where he is on vacation, the White House spokesman, Marlin Fitzwater, issued a statement appealing for Mr. Mandela's release. The statement said Mr. Mandela was widely recognized ''as the embodiment of black aspirations in South Africa.''

''On the occasion of his 70th birthday we renew our appeal to the South African Government to release Nelson Mandela, and other political prisoners,'' the statement said, adding, ''Their release would contribute greatly to creating an environment that fosters serious, broad-based negotiations for the abolition of apartheid and establishment of a nonracial democracy in South Africa.''

Two years later, Mandela was freed, and became the first black man to be president of South Africa.

       

Can Software Be Patented? The Supreme Court Might Finally Settle the Issue

AP

For the first time in decades, the Supreme Court will take up the dispute over the patentability of software, agreeing on Friday to hear CLS Bank International's challenge to a financial software patent held by Alice Corporation Pty Ltd. While the court could end up issuing a narrow decision that only applies to this one case, it opens up the possibility of a broad new precedent on a long-controversial issue.  

Current patent law prohibits patents for abstract ideas, laws of nature, and natural phenomena. Those are broad categories, meaning that court decisions have done a lot to draw specific patentability boundaries. The Supreme Court has previously determined, for instance, that mathematical algorithms are not patentable under law. One would think that software — which at its basic level is a series of calculations — might fall under that restriction, but a later precedent set in the appeals courts allowed it. This has left the status of software patenting in a pretty messy state, something many people would like to see the court tidy up with a decision in this case.

The Washington Post's Timothy Lee explains how the Court could choose to clear things up. 

All it would need to do is to reiterate its earlier position that patents claiming mathematical processes — a.k.a. computer software — isn't eligible for patent protection unless it's tied to a specific machine or physical process. The high court will be reluctant to do this because it would be disruptive. Reiterating that mathematical algorithms can't be patented would call into question thousands of patents held by major software companies. 

Others have argued that the stakes in this case extend beyond the simple software question and into the ongoing legal debate over patent trolls. As the Electronic Frontier Foundation previously argued, the problem of software patents is key to solving patent abuse by trolls: "Software patents by their nature are vague and often broad," the EFF writes, "giving trolls a powerful tool to use to threaten lawsuits and demand licensing fees." 

The issue has also divided major tech corporations Google, Facebook, and Netflix have signed on in support of a challenge to the current software patent practice, while Microsoft and Oracle (arguably the two biggest software giants in the world) want the current protections to stay right where they are. 

       

Lame Bloggers Disinvited from Fashion Week

A blogger poses outside the "Cottonelle Clean and Fresh Restroom" at NYFW in September.  (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

If you're a blogger hoping to cover New York Fashion Week in February, good luck. IMG Fashion, which runs NYFW, has announced it will cut the media guest list by 20 percent. IMG will make "invitations once again an exclusive pass for true fashion insiders."

Wintour's still invited. (AP)

In other words, Vogue editors still make the cut, but silly Internet people do not. "It was becoming a zoo," Catherine Bennett, the senior VP and managing director at IMG Fashion Events and Properties, told The Wall Street Journal. 

As Alyssa Vinigan at Fashionista explains, to be on the media guest list for NYFW does not mean that a designer has invited you to a show. Often, bloggers will attempt to get on the guest list just to skulk around the venues and take photos of themselves. No more, says IMG. Media guests should be "of value to the designers." 

So how did NYFW become such a zoo of valueless millennials? Connie Wang at Refinery 29 explains, "the simultaneous commodification of street style, ease of capturing the scene via social media, and the rise of editors-as-celebrities has created a culture where Fashion Week is, for many, a chance to be seen and self-promote — rather than a place to do business." 

IMG notes that uninvited bloggers can find all the images they need on their beloved Internet.

       

North Korea Is Still Expanding Its Largest Prison Camps

Amnesty International

Amnesty International has obtained new satellite images showing the growth of North Korea's largest prison complex — camps 15 and 16, or kwanliso — where prisoners are forced to dig their own graves, and women are raped then made to disappear. Amnesty explains in their most recent North Korea briefing the implications of the discovery:

Far from dismantling the political prison camps – places of systematic, widespread and grave human rights violations, such as forced hard labour, denial of detainee’s food quota as punishment, torture and other cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment – they appear active and authorities appear to be investing in maintenance of the prisons’ infrastructure. 

Courtesy of Amnesty International   The organization also spoke with a former security guard, Mr Lee, who worked at camp 16 and discussed the horrifying treatment of the prisoners: 

Detainees were forced to dig their own graves and were then killed with hammer blows to their necks. He also witnessed prison officers strangling detainees and then beating them to death with wooden sticks. According to Mr Lee women were disappeared after being raped: “After a night of ‘servicing’ the officials, the women had to die because the secret could not get out. This happens at most of the political prison camps.”

One former prisoner witnessed the public execution of detainees who tried to escape: “They were brought to a stage after they were badly beaten. The prisoners were tied to wooden stakes and shot three times in their head, chest and feet," she said. 

Courtesy of Amnesty International

According to Amnesty International, among the hundreds of thousands held in North Korean prison camps are children and the families of alleged political criminals. North Korea officially denies the existence of such camps. 

In September, the United Nations published a report describing prison conditions in North Korea as comparable to those at Nazi concentration camps. The report was billed as part of an effort to propel possible criminal prosecution of North Korea's government —a task made difficult by the state's extreme secrecy and independence from the International Criminal Court. 

       

Grammy Nominations Preview: Who's Joining Justin Timberlake and Taylor Swift?

Nothing will make you crazier than trying to predict the Grammy nominees. Just when you think you've got Album of the Year on lockdown, Vince Gill gets tapped for a bluegrass tribute that maybe 24 people heard. The second you get cocky about Best New Artist, you learn that "Ledisi" and "Skrillex" are not, in fact, new street names for heroin.

But randomness injects the Grammys with unpredictable fun.  When this year's nominees are announced at the Grammy Nominations Concert -- airing on CBS tonight, at the viewer-friendly time of 10pm on a Friday night -- I'm sure I'll be infuriated that the ghost of Roy Orbison made the list for Song of the Year, but I'd rather be angry than bored. Plus, if one of my bolder predictions actually pans out, then I can revel in the glory for a lifetime.

So with full awareness of my fool's errand, here are my guesses for the four major categories. I'm feeling confident for the time being, but when "Work Bitch" gets shortlisted for Record of the Year, I'll happily own my mistakes.

Album of the Year

Sure Things:

Justin Timberlake, The 20/20 Experience. This album was not only the year's best seller, but also a reminder that when Timberlake puts his SNL career on hold and actually makes some music, he can still sex our eardrums like a boss. Granted, nobody loves Part 2, but Part 1 is too strong to ignore.

Taylor Swift, Red. "Hasn't this album been out for 100 years?" Yes. However, this year's eligibility period ran from October 1, 2012 – September 30, 2013, so Red is just now having its Grammy moment. And make no mistake: Swift's seamless, multiplatinum transition into arena pop will feel the love, especially considering she won this award for Fearless a few years ago.

Good Bets

I'm guessing either Macklemore & Ryan Lewis or Lorde will get a newcomer's slot with The Heist or Pure Heroine, respectively, but I'm torn on which one will make it. I'm tempted to say that Macklemore's multiple hits will give him the edge over Lorde's bulletproof cool. Meanwhile, Bruno Mars can't be discounted for Unorthodox Jukebox, Drake had a good year with Nothing Was the Same, and if country voters want more than Taylor Swift, they might go with Luke Bryan or Kacey Musgraves (more on her later.) And let's not forget the classic rock/old fogey slot: Critics loved Elton John's The Diving Board and Elvis Costello and The Roots' Wise Up Ghost. I'm guessing Elton has the edge, though, because he's a global treasure.

Wild Card:

EDM will crash this category eventually, so what if Daft Punk rides Random Access Memories into the final five? They've been around long enough to seem like established acts, which might make voters less terrified of those shiny helmets.

Not Happening

Sorry, Kanye. Jesus might be your homeboy, but Yeezus is just too polarizing for the Academy.

Final predictions: Justin Timberlake, Taylor Swift, Daft Punk, Elton John, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis

Song of the Year

Sure Things

"Just Give me a Reason" by Pink and Nate Ruess. Pink has been woefully under-nominated in her career, but I don't see how anyone could deny the songwriting in this capital-p power ballad, which features and was co-written by last year's Best New Artist. (Well, the award went to fun., not Nate Ruess alone, but you know what I mean.) Grammy voters LOOOOVE giving additional nominations to Best New Artist champs, because it makes them seem prescient, and it lets them avoid the one-hit-wonder embarrassment of a Starland Vocal Band or a Marc Cohn.

"Locked Out of Heaven" or "When I Was Your Man" by Bruno Mars. Mars is an old-fashioned songwriter in the best way, and one of these recent hits is bound to get tapped.

Good Bets

We've got to assume that "Mirrors," "I Knew You Were Trouble," and Daft Punk's "Get Lucky" are being considered here. (However, Daft Punk's track might strike some people as more of a production achievement.) Since a country song always sneaks into this category, I'm throwing my money behind Kacey Musgraves's "Merry Go 'Round," and if Ed Sheeran can get tapped for "The A-Team," then why not Passenger for the equally lovely (and more commercially successful) "Let Her Go?" On the rock tip, there may be room for Imagine Dragons and "Radioactive," but since Sting released new music this year, he might get included just for being Sting. There's also a possibility for Lorde and/or Macklemore, especially if the latter submitted "Same Love," but I'm doubtful the new kids will crash all four categories.

Wild Cards

I'm fantasizing about a showdown between Katy Perry's "Roar" and Sara Bareilles' "Brave." I mean… what if the Academy uses this category to decide who the "real" songwriter is? Granted, "Roar" was co-written by Max Martin, who also contributed to "I Knew You Were Trouble," so he may cancel his own votes. But still, I can dream.

Not Happening

I think I need to manage my expectations for Drake's slinky and flawless "Hold On, We're Going Home." It's probably too low-key to get the attention it deserves.

Final Predictions: "Just Give Me a Reason," "Locked Out of Heaven," "Mirrors," "Merry Go 'Round," "I Knew You Were Trouble"

Record of the Year 

Sure Things

"Royals" by Lorde. Can you name a cooler song that was released this year? Neither can I. Neither can the Academy.

"Mirrors" by Justin Timberlake. Because it's the biggest hit from the year's biggest album.

Good Bets

A few weeks ago, I would've said that "Blurred Lines" couldn't miss in this category, but given all the lawsuits flying around about the song, it doesn't seem so bulletproof anymore. And if she didn't seem to turn off the Academy, I'd assume Pink was a lock for "Just Give Me a Reason." Instead, I'm just pretty sure. Meanwhile, I'm terrified to say that Florida Georgia Line could make the cut with "Cruise," which is three and a half minutes worth of the sound of country music dying. On the other hand, Avicii's "Wake Me Up!" and Daft Punk's "Get Lucky" could prove irresistible, since unlike "Cruise," they blend genres without inviting scorn. Once again, we also have to consider Bruno Mars and Taylor Swift, not to mention "Radioactive," which kept Imagine Dragons on the chart for almost the entire eligibility period.

Ultimately, there are so many strong contenders here that I won't be surprised if they extend the field to six nominees, just like last year.

Wild Card

"Skyfall" may not have the staying power of "Someone Like You," but we should never underestimate Adele.

Not Happening

She may get some nominations in less prestigious categories, but Miley Cyrus isn't riding her "Wrecking Ball" to the big dance.

Final Predictions: "Mirrors," "Get Lucky," "Locked Out of Heaven," "I Knew You Were Trouble," "Royals"

Best New Artist

Sure Things

Kacey Musgraves. The country music community is basically tearing itself apart right now, feuding over the increasing influence of slick, mindless pop, and at every country awards ceremony, Kacey Musgraves has been nominated to carry the torch for the purists. She might be singing about gay relationships and weed, but she's doing it with insightful lyrics, acoustic arrangements, and an obvious understanding of her genre's roots. I won't be surprised if she's an upset winner in this category.

Macklemore & Ryan Lewis. Taken together "Thrift Shop," "Can't Hold Us," "Same Love," and "White Walls" offer something for everyone, and appeal that broad builds consensus.

Good Bets

Lorde released her album on the last day of eligibility, so she'll probably make it here. Avicii could follow in Skrillex's footsteps as an emissary of dance music, and Kendrick Lamar is very popular, so don't count him out.

Wild Cards

What would this category be without a Susan Tedeschi or an Esperanza Spalding to keep us guessing? I'm sure there are potential nominees I've never even heard of, but for now, I'm going to suggest Savages and HAIM. Both are female rock bands with groovy sounds, and as far as I'm concerned, HAIM dropped one of the best albums of the year.

Not Happening

I've heard rumblings of support for American Idol alum Phillip Phillips, who bucked that show's recent fortunes by nabbing both a hit single and a platinum album. However, he's hardly Carrie Underwood.

Final predictions: Kacey Musgraves, Macklemore & Ryan Lewis, Lorde, Kendrick Lamar, HAIM

Mark Blankenship thinks about pop music, and sometimes he even writes about it. Find him at markgblankenship.com or on Twitter @IAmBlankenship

       

How the World's Papers Reacted to Nelson Mandela's Death

Various Newspapers

On Thursday, the world lost one of the most influential and well-respected leaders that history has ever seen. Newspapers and news agencies all around the world were tasked with a question: How do you remember a hero of Madiba's magnitude? And further, how do you do pick out that one sentence or that one photo that "best" captures his life and spirit?

This is how the world's papers including papers in Nelson Mandela's home country of South Africa remembered this beautiful man:

The Mail & Guardian from South Africa:

South Africa's Mercury:

 

The New York Times: 

The Wall Street Journal:

The Washington Post:

Chicago's Sun Times wins the loveliest cover in the U.S.:

New York's Daily News said goodbye to an dear friend:

The Times (UK):

Spain's El Pais:

Lebanon's Assafir:

Colombia's El Colombiano:

 

       

'The Sound of Music Live,' as Experienced on Cameron Diaz's Twitter Feed

20th Century Fox

Actress, tweeter, and upcoming Miss Hannigan in the new Annie remake, Cameron Diaz was all about broadcasting her reaction to NBC's live theatrical event of The Sound of Music. From lederhosen to HD TV settings, here's what had Cameron wanting to #climbeverymountain, via her Twitter feed:

The only live performance on TV I've done is SNL. I couldn't imagine doing #SoundofMusic live for 3hrs. #bravecast #poopingmylederhosen

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

HDTVmakes everything fake look fake takes away from the art of film and TV production#SoundofMusic #fakelightning #fakealps #fakemoonlight

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

#SoundofMusic @AudraEqualityMc @carrieunderwood just made me weep with #climbeverymountain I love spreading the word of #livelovehavenofear

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

#berliniscalling #SoundofMusicLive #poopingmylederhosen

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

Thanks to everyone who has sent word of the ability to calibrate my HD settings especially @llhllabs I feel it will #changemylife #notatechi

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

Nazi's where total dicks #justsaying #SoundofMusic #SoundofMusicLive

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

“@Muzztopher: “@CameronDiaz: Nazi's where total dicks #justsaying #SoundofMusic #SoundofMusicLive”.. Were** #grammarnazi” autocorrect sux

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013

Habits off to the entire cast/crew of @SoundofMusic Nice work to you all! #pulleditoff #hardtodo #talentedpeeps #SoundofMusic

— Cameron (@CameronDiaz) December 6, 2013