Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 96

Terror Breaks Through

We had been warned repeatedly, yet when it comes, the raw tragedy of so many people killed and injured for no reason and without warning tears the heart. This blog joins the endless list of those expressing shock and sympathy. Having lived through the years of the IRA campaigns there is a cold familiarity of the sequence as it unfolds. Not bombs now or even guns, but vehicles used as weapons. But with the same outcome measured in human suffering.

Yet across the Irish Sea there is today an event remarkable for all the opposite reasons; the funeral of Martin McGuiness. He began as a terrorist commander and ended as a statesman whose drive to bring peace to Northern Ireland enhanced the lives of all who live not just in the island of Ireland but across the British Isles. The mourners told the story. From the illustrious to the humble, Catholic and Protestant, Unionist and Republican, together assembled to pay tribute to a remarkable life. Thousands died in the Troubles, yet with peace at least there is meaning.

If Britain wants to give meaning to yesterday’s victims it must do all in its power, not simply to defeat IS, but to ensure there is a fair and just settlement across the Middle East so that fighting ends and the Shia, Sunni and Kurdish populations each receive a homeland which they can themselves independently rule, according to their own traditions, without fear of each other. If we fail in that endeavour we will see more of the suffering and violence spread to our shores.

Labour’s Agony Goes On.

A political party has members at its base and , depending on how successful it is, it has elected representatives in local, regional and national government. Labour is a Movement and has a formal link and relationship to most, though no longer all, trade unions. Normally there is lively debate between members and the party leadership in all political parties. These are democratic institutions in a land of free speech, so people can say what they think, more especially in politics. But broadly, although every political party is something of a coalition, everyone pulls in the same direction. If they don’t they go nowhere.

But in Labour now there is a rift so glaring and a naval gazing fest so addictive, that the party is becoming arguably unleadable and certainly  unelectable. There is a schism between the majority of the party in parliament and the majority of its members in the country. This Blog will not now explore the whys and wherefores, as many previous posts have done that.

But it is important to warn that unless this stops, there will be massacre at the polls for Labour, whenever an election takes place. Nobody wants everlasting Tory government in England, even Tories. The parliamentary Labour party must set aside its hate of Corbyn and get on with the demanding job of Opposition. Never mind their own problems because their country has many more. And they come first.

May’s In Tray Piling Up?

Lord Heseltine could have been right when he suggested that it would have been better for May to position her government in the active left centre running the country and improving people’s lives by a combination of reform and efficiency, supported by economic revival, to create an economy fit for whatever kind of Brexit happened. He also suggested the Brexiteers should have been put together to sort out the strategy and detail of Brexit, for the rest of the government to approve. In others words tell the Brexiteers ‘you got what you wanted, now deliver it.’

Instead she has embraced Brexit with the blind fervor of the gullible convert and is pushing forward regardless of problems piling up. She exhibits a reckless disregard for the need for both a proper costing of the bill for her chosen hard Brexit and a well rehearsed plan to deal with its aftermath. We continue to hear reports of shambolic meetings behind the scenes and have watched the damaging spectacle of the unraveling budget. Now she has been politically outsmarted by Sturgeon, who knew from the very beginning that there was no chance of a referendum on Scottish independence being agreed, but huge political mileage to be gained from a refusal. This would highlight Tory willingness to over-ride the Scottish parliament, reinforcing the injustice of pulling Scotland out of the EU when two thirds of its voters opted to stay in.

As a consequence Scotland is now the elephant in the room of the the coming EU negotiations, with  the prospect of doing a deal to keep it in an attractive option to EU hardliners anxious not to give Britain an easy time. Moreover the consternation about the sudden fragility of Britain’s Union is noted in every EU capital and will weaken May’s bargaining power. The picture of what she has to lose is now floodlit.

Further complications arise from the loss of the Unionist majority at Stormont and the near impossibility of creating a customs free border between the North and South in the event of hard Brexit. At the moment the two economies work as one, only the politics are split, and when it comes to jobs, free movement and trade, the North, faced with a choice of fencing itself in to remain in the Union, or staying open and doing a political deal with the Republic, will chose Dublin over London, not least because, like Scotland, the majority voted to Remain.

May resorted to one of her vicarage strictures to brush off Surgeon. ‘Now is not the time’ she trilled. She was right over sentiment but wrong over subject. Now is not the time for Brexit. It never was and never will be.

Trump Fiasco : Now A Climb Down

To emphasise the scale of this GCHQ claim blunder, to tap the communications of the president-elect of an ally, or retrieve and release transcripts of communications recorded in bulk data, would require authorisation of the government, i.e the Home Secretary and the Prime Minister. Such authorisation would only be given if they were presented with evidence that the individual was an agent of a foreign power engaged in activities against the interests of the UK and its allies. In other words there was evidence Trump was committing treason.

This is clearly preposterous and why GCHQ, which never comments on security matters, issued a statement saying that the White House claim was ‘nonsense, utterly ridiculous and should be ignored’. As an official put down to the White House by the UK, this is almost unthinkable, especially as that statement itself would have been approved by Downing St.  The White House has now apologized, but this has been a damaging episode in a series of mis-steps that must now end for the credibility of  this Presidency not to be damaged beyond repair.

Tories : The Sleaze Party Returns?

May is not having a good week. It now turns out that gross violations of funding rules were broken by the Tory party in its 2015 battles in key marginals. The police are involved, in addition to the record fine by the Electoral Commission. However, the real issue is whether in these affected marginal seats a re-run will be required.

For example it is now clear that Farage would have won Thanet South without the intervention of these expensive, £18000 apparently, Tory bus-ins of  activists from outside the area. This all means that the Cameron won in 2015 by fraudulent means. Quite shocking. There is no point in warning about Russian hackers when the real threat to the integrity of our democracy comes from cheats in the political parties we are supposed to trust.

Budget Disaster: Corbyn Fluffs It?

It is difficult to think of a bigger political disaster than to have the budget unravel within seven days; more so because the Prime Minister had weighed in and defended it. So she may have expected pretty rough handling form the Leader of the Opposition. Instead she more or less reduced him to laughing stock, silenced the benches behind him and left it to Angus Robertson, the SNP leader in the Commons, to provide the soundbite of the day. Screeching U Turn.

Yet if you are a Tory or a Lib Dem, before you laugh yourself silly, understand this. May is a politician. Corbyn is not. He has been a member of the House of Commons since, well for decades, but he has never shown a single attribute of a politician. He is a campaigner for left wing causes in which he believes, a champion of the weak, the forgotten, the poor and the underdog. He has a vision of a different sort of society which puts the collective good above personal gain and believes that the State is a friend not an enemy. That is why he has been elected Labour leader by not one landslide but by two.

If when the general election comes the stars align, as well they might, for a change of direction after years of bungling austerity, he may turn out to be just the person the voters prefer. Because having been lied to over austerity, Brexit, the single market, and all the rubbish painted on that dreadful red bus, the British public may just decide they have had a basinful of slick politicians. Then Corbyn will be a very dangerous adversary.

Sturgeon Upstages May

It was a dramatic intervention few saw coming. Sturgeon’s decision to seek permission to hold a second independence referendum is a bold political move from Britain’s top political operator. But it is not quite what it seems.

Sturgeon knows that although polls appear to be moving in favour of independence, there is still at best a 50/50 split. This is certainly a much higher starting point than last time when Yes put on about 15 points during the campaign and a repeat of that would certainly see Scotland out of the UK. But last time foundered on a weak economic plan and currency uncertainty and, although different dynamics now apply, the same problems would exist again. However the undoubted clincher for many to vote No before was that this would ensure that Scotland would remain in the EU. That turned out to be a con. So there is a very real chance that next time Sturgeon could win. But she could lose and she knows that.

The calculation is this. To declare now has put enormous political pressure on May and has changed the dynamic of Brexit. The prospect of the UK breaking up over Brexit is now real, on the table and ongoing. The news spread like a forest fire through all the EU capitals, where note will be taken that May is now fighting on two fronts.

The penny may also drop that a compromise for the EU would be to keep Scotland and drop England. It is after all England and the English who have always been reluctant Europeans. By timing the new referendum for either late 2017 or early 2018, Sturgeon knows she is in a window where she has a landslide of Scottish MPs at Westminster and with the Greens a majority in the Scottish parliament. Putting this elephant right into the room of the EU negotiations ensures maximum political influence. But if she delays she could be forced to act after the UK has left the EU, when her own political position will be much weaker, her own power base under threat and the project of Scottish independence fading in a new political climate of uncertainty.

Finally she knows that by doing it this way, Scotland is already in the EU. In spite of public declarations of a new application by an independent Scotland from spoilers in Brussels, any fool can see that it will be much easier for the EU to leave Scotland where it is than get rid of it and then get it back. Indeed because Scotland is and always has been a separate country even within the UK, it has never been a province, principality, or region of Britain, it is not impossible for Scotland to remain both in the EU and also the UK. London’s worst nightmare. But Sturgeon’s happy dream.

First came the budget shambles. Now this. Not ideal week for May certainly. And of course there is Ireland. The North voted to Remain and the South is secure in the EU.  Although Northern Ireland will still be linked to England, its land border is with the EU in the South and nearest air and sea border are both to Scotland, potentially also in the EU. The Unionists have lost their majority at Stormont and although the two Irelands may not formally unite, in practice they will operate as one economically. The future of the UK now looks more uncertain than at any time in several hundred years.

Book Of The Moment: Paperback or Download

Dr. Rachael Benedict is an American historian and a best-selling author. Through the death of her estranged father she sets out to expose secrets from the Nazi era, which are so sensitive they have been subject to an extensive cover-up lasting seventy years.  This provokes a killing spree as parts of the security services of both Britain and the United States become engaged in the drama, with one side determined to get the secrets out and the other determined to keep them hidden.

Rachael battles forward to unearth the truth from intrigues of the past, but also within her own family, surviving three attempts on her life, before finally achieving her goal. Not only does she expose the truth from history and from her own roots, she has to delve deep into her own emotions to find the truth about hers elf.

Click on image for UK          Click here for US

 

Trump: Is It Going To Work?

Up till now the Trump Presidency has been more spectacle than politics to the average person taking a mild interest, from anywhere across the world. But now the serious business of government is at hand and soon will be in full swing. There is good news for the Travel Ban II, which seems to be regarded as reasonable by the majority and which has survived a Federal Court request, to the very judge who banned the last one, to do the same again. He refused at least until a case can be made. There is mixed news for the Obamacare replacement (Trumpcare?) because it is harassed from two sides. The liberal tendency led by the Democrats oppose it because it is retrograde and leaves millions potentially without cover, while conservative Republicans are against it because it does not go far enough to destroy the fabric of Obama’s legacy project. With that political line up the new plan is not going anywhere.

This will be a test of Trump’s much vaunted deal making skills. If he manages to navigate a healthcare system which is fairer, cheaper but still delivers cover to the millions previously, before Obamacare, without protection, he will be set fair for a full two terms. But if the plan withdraws cover from millions of lower paid blue collar workers who either have to pay more than they can afford, or go without, his Presidency will founder at the end of his first term. Because those very people voted for Trump and if they turn away he cannot win. Meanwhile a lot of political capital has been wasted on the obsession with so called fake news and the spats which result. Rasmussen,which in January had his approval rating at 59%, was yesterday showing 48%. Something must be done about that.

Brexit Optimism: Be Careful

As the trigger moment approaches, Brexit enthusiasts, including the government or most of it, glow with optimism at the great opportunities for Great Britain set free. Remainers, like me, who cherish being part of a free Europe and have immense pride in being a European citizen, look on aghast at perhaps the greatest act of national folly in our history. But there is another group, those who voted Remain but are happy to follow the democratic choice out of the union and into, well whatever, who are beginning to dish out real issues which have to be resolved. And those issues are piling up and will not go away. The time has come to pay attention to what they are saying.

Brexiteers point out that all the warnings of economic disaster proffered by the Remain campaign, together with the forecasts of their allies, were proved wrong. But wait. Those warnings were issued in the belief that Cameron, in the event of a Leave victory, would do as promised and immediately trigger Article 50, so that by the end of June or early July we would have started on our journey out. That has not happened even now, so nothing has actually changed and therefore apart from the fall in sterling, there have been no effects. But when stuff happens, the effects will pile up. Watch this space.

It has echoes of 1939. We declared war, not much happened, no bombs fell and life carried on as normal. Then came 1940. If you do not know what happened then, best to look it up.