Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 95

Public Service Funding: The Problem Will Become A Crisis

Today there are new warnings about funding shortages in education. The government retorts that they are spending more on education than ever before. Of course! There are more children, costs are rising and education is more sophisticated and more costly to deliver. I know of one secondary school which has had to write to parents asking for contributions because they having a funding shortfall of £1 million. On the news bulletins there are funding shortages in all public services. Only in overseas aid are the coffers flush.  Problems are mounting right across the piece, because after nine years of austerity absolutely nothing is properly funded.

This is not because public expenditure is out of control. It is because this government, now in power, either in coalition or with a majority, for seven years, has  promoted about the least efficient economical model it is possible to design. There is no end in sight to austerity because revenues are too low. There is too little wealth creation and too much asset inflation. Productivity is the worst in Europe and we are becoming accustomed to a low wage economy where incomes no longer rise. The tax system is way out of date and utterly unable to deliver what is needed to pay the bills. So government borrowing goes on and on, passing targeted end dates not by the month or the year, but by the parliament. We were promised a surplus at the end of the first. We are now aiming for the end of the third. That will be fifteen years!

And coming down the line is Brexit. That horror story is just beginning.

Boris Johnson Humiliated : Gove Was Right?

First he cancels his trip to Moscow. All commentators who know Putin, Medvedev and Lavrov thought this a mistake. He should have gone there, tested possibilities and reported back. No, not Boris the showman. Grandstanding, one liners and soundbites flowed like a river in flood. Then came a plan this Blog saw no prospect of working, involving backing the Russians into a corner and demanding they do as the West tells them. It could not work,  was pointless and the other European foreign ministers vetoed it.

So now Tillerson is off to Moscow. Boris has egg on his face. The UK has been sidelined by Europe. The hard  truth is that both Washington and Moscow regard him as a clown with zero grasp of diplomacy. They are right. May must rid herself of this court jester whom she cannot any longer afford. Neither can the country. At least we understand why Gove knifed him in the back.

What a fiasco.

US Foreign Policy: A Seismic Shift

This is important and to make it easier for younger adults who do not recall the detail of the Cold War or Pre 9/11 policy, I am going to state the facts, rather than argue the case.

9/11 unhinged America’s judgement and gave life to a misguided theory of democratization through regime change, brought about by armed intervention. This proved calamitous and led to an era of endless fighting, human suffering unknown in modern times and a reduction in Anglo-American influence to its lowest  level post WWII. Trump was elected on a non-interventionist ticket. But he also said, repeatedly, that he was going to keep America safe, expand the military and make America great again. People listened to that and cheered, but they did not hear.

Suddenly comes the chemical attack. This produces an opportunity as well as a provocation. Obama would have dithered and dawdled. Huffed and puffed. Trump ordered an immediate strike. Carefully crafted to send and immensely powerful message, without doing much actual damage, the Russians warned in advance. What next? A nuclear armed and powered naval battle group is sailing to the Korean Peninsular capable of wiping North Korea from the map within an hour. The days of wild threats from Pyongyang are over. In Moscow and Beijing  lights burn 24/7. China and Russia know that they have new and important roles to play, but the era of doing as they like is over. There will be no attempt to run other countries or effect futile regime change. Nor will there be nation building.  But nothing is going to happen to America, its allies or its interests unless Trump says yes. And if he says no and it happens, he will use force at once.

Is this all unexpected? Certainly but the clues were there. All the key posts to do with foreign policy, defense and national security in the Trump administration are held by retired or serving generals. Except for one. The State Department. Here there is a CEO from a multi-national, with a reduced departmental budget and a skeleton personal staff. His job is not to negotiate a deal, but to state the terms. These will only be varied if the attraction of the counter offer is compelling. That is business. But the driver is raw power.

So there we are. It is not the first time people voted for one thing and got another. It happened in GB not all that long ago. Voters elected a housewife and got Thatcher. In America they voted for a wild card and got Trump. Now they learn that you do not snatch the Presidency from the political establishment or make a multi billion dollar fortune just by pinching bottoms and fooling on Twitter. It is obvious when you think about it. But nobody did.

 

Trump Strikes: What Now?

It goes without saying that this Blog, like the whole world, was shocked and repelled by the  images of the aftermath of the infamous gas attack on innocent civilians in Syria. It is impossible to understand the motive for this attack by the Assad regime. Militarily it will have little impact because although horrible, it was limited to a single strike. But it is a colossal strategic reverse for Assad and a huge annoyance to his allies and backers, Russia and Iran, who are fuming behind the scenes at having to publicly defend the indefensible. Even the Nazis did not use chemical weapons in conflict. Before the attack the Americans were saying Assad could stay and be part of a peace settlement. After it they say he has to go before there can be one. Before Assad had the political advantage. Now he has lost it.

So it is difficult to fathom what Assad thought he was going to gain and why this Blog would like to see a bit more evidence from the US which makes them certain he did this. I hope and imagine that this involves surveillance, hacking, tacking, drones, satellites and listening processes which are incontrovertible. All of those technologies are light years beyond where they were in 2002. But if today the US has relied on human intelligence which, like the infamous weapons of mass destruction debacle, is flawed or deliberately falsified to set the US on the wrong path, things for America and Trump could yet go very badly wrong.

But assuming that grim scenario is not the case, this bold move by Trump, measured, specific and limited, has, at no cost to American lives and in defence terms very little money, established his Presidency as real and not a reality show, re-asserted America’s world leadership roll, and sent clear messages to Moscow. These are that the attack was not aimed at Russia, evidenced by the fact that she was warned of the strike and specific efforts were made to avoid areas where Russian military were present. But America is now engaged in Syria and Assad cannot now win. Russia, which has more or less had a free hand in Syria since it first intervened has lost control. In future the US will have to be part of the calculation. Moreover there is now no military solution possible short of the obliteration of Syria and a political solution will have to be found.

The format of that will have a different character too. Instead of trying for a brokered agreement among warring factions which cannot agree anything even among themselves, it will be a deal between America, Russia, Iran and Turkey. It will involve a carve up and enforcement process both complex and robust in which Assad will be lucky if he ends up alive and washing the dishes. The driver will be that Moscow fears that a clash between US and Russian forces in the skies over Syria is now very real and that Washington is okay with that. Tillerson’s visit to Moscow will be more productive than people expect.

For Trump, the icing on the cake is an invitation of a state visit to China, following the overshadowed hosting of Xi Jinping, which he has accepted. A bye product is that his visit to the UK is now definitely on, including I expect, his address to Parliament. With just one caveat overall. This President is uniquely unpredictable and spontaneous. By mid-week everything may have gone pear shaped. He certainly gives us a white knuckle ride in his presidential theme park.

Brexit: Now It Gets Real

Since the fateful referendum in June last year things have been easy for the Brexiteers. Because of the delay in triggering Article 50, nothing had actually changed, so nothing did change. All the consequences remained in the future. But now things are happening thick and fast and even though negotiations have not yet begun, it is clear that the era of lofty rhetoric about a new global Britain, without facts, figures, plans or projections, is over. Now it is the hard grind through much detail and a good deal of vested interests and nobody knows how it will work out in the end.

The foundation upon which May has built her project, somewhat bravely pressing forward without any useful input (apart from rhetoric) from the authors of this peculiar twist in the history of these islands, is that she is acting to carry out the will of the British people. So what ‘will’ is that? Here are the figures. Of those entitled to vote

31% did not bother, thus signalling that they either did not care, did not understand, or were kind of okay with things as they are;

35% voted to remain;

37% voted to leave.

So only 37% actually voted for this Brexit? On matters of this magnitude  that is a minority voting preference. It does not pass a two thirds threshold which should have been part of the referendum structure for so huge a leap into the unknown. It is certainly not a mandate and as things begin to get difficult, that will become ever clearer.

So Is There A Grand Strategic Plan?

Possibly. I have learned from a friendly American source that the QM2 is off Shanghai housing a trade summit for three days designed to improve trade with China post Brexit. Mark Garnier, the UK trade minister is hosting the event. No reports of this appear in the media. So that is interesting. If you read between the lines of May’s Article 50 letter she is looking for a Special Relationship with Europe not unlike the one we have with the US, but with free trade.

We already know that we are working on the same thing with China and now are closer to Beijing than any other Western country. We even gave Xi Jinping, the Chinese President, a gilded State Visit, including an address to Parliament. China is important because with its centralized control, it can potentially deliver a trade deal much faster than either the EU or the US, helping to mitigate the potential shock of Brexit to the UK. Indeed securing a deal that helped grow our exports could well be sufficient to hold Scotland within the Union.

May’s problem is that in order to get any kind of worthwhile free trade deal with the EU, she will have to concede so much that  it will seem to the hardliners in her party and in the country, that leaving is pointless. On the other hand hard Brexit, she now realizes and so does the rest of the government, would be an electoral disaster. Because people have  constantly been told that Brexit will make them better off. If, or perhaps when, that turns out not to be the case, angry voters will be after blood. Hers.

So I could be be onto something here, or perhaps not. There may be a grand strategic plan. Or it might be that, as many report, the government is just splashing about out of its depth in a pool of wishful thinking, without a clue how either to stay afloat or  climb out.

You decide.

A Black Day: Article 50 Triggered

I have nothing to say about today other than I hoped it would never come. It is not about economics. It is about the unification of the European family whose blood flows through my veins.

To walk away from what I have repeatedly called the greatest political achievement since the fall of the Roman Empire is an act of deluded vanity without historic parallel. It will do no good to us nor to Europe. Somehow we will all get by, but for me this is a day of shame.  To draw a phrase of inspiration from history,

March 29 2017

A Date Which Will Live In Infamy. 

Mosul: Killing Civilians

It is a sorry fact that war kills. And it kills civilians. Which is why it is no longer a reasonable option for settling disputes. But war goes on and much of it is fueled by the West.

Having raged at Russia for bombing civilians in Syria, it is disappointing that the American led airstrikes, in which the RAF is engaged, in the battle for Mosul in Iraq, are killing even more. The belief is that under Trump the rules of engagement have been quietly relaxed to allow much more aggressive tactics in the battle with IS. The risk/reward ratio is bloodthirsty. Razing one building to take out one sniper can also kill two dozen civilians and injure many more. The rationale behind this tougher approach is that it is better to bring a war to a bloody conclusion, than for it to go on without end.

Unless you are an injured child orphaned by your home collapsing on your family. Then you would say it is better not to have any war in the first place.

Trump Loses Big (ly): But Does He Save His Presidency?

There could be no bigger slap in the face for the President than the collapse of the replacement for Obamacare, the more especially because  the Republicans control both Houses of Congress, the Representatives by quite a margin. There are two points worth making without getting involved in the detail of the issue.

The first is that Trump is not really a Republican, nor is he a Democrat. He is America First, but Trump First of All. So his relationship with his adopted party is of convenience rather than blood, whilst its relationship with him is one of sufferance rather than acclaim. So it is hardly surprising if he runs into problems with his legislative agenda. This is made worse by the fact that the Republican party is broken into three factions; moderate mainstream, liberal leaning and conservative right. Unfortunately they all pull in different directions unable to find common cause with each other. This makes the President look weak and raises worries about his ability to deliver on his promises, including his trade deal with the post Brexit UK.

The White House is therefore wise to go hell for leather for his much vaunted tax cuts, especially the extortionate corporation tax which causes vast profits of US companies to be domiciled in tax havens outside America. The easing of the tax burden for middle income families is a smart move. Together they should  start  a growth spurt which will do much to raise Trump’s ratings profile. It will also create a revenue black hole before the fruits of growth deliver and how to finance that could cause a whole lot of problems on the Hill. But it is the only way forward that makes sense for this unique Presidency.

The second point is this. Had the new Healthcare Act got through, it is estimated that some 14 million Americans would lose their cover and not be able to afford the new deal. Most of those seem to have voted for Trump. So if they had been let down and turned away, there could be a Republican rout mid-term. That would face Trump with the Democrats again in control of both Houses. The first thing you would notice would be a lot of Special Prosecutors. So for Trump his healthcare failure is probably a blessing hardly needing a disguise.

Berlin’s Tribute: A Historic Moment

I had an emotional and proud moment when I saw images of the Brandenburg Gate illuminated as a Union Jack, in a bold statement of solidarity with London after the Westminster terror attack. Having been born into the English segment of an Anglo-German family with a wartime childhood under flying bombs and rockets, whilst we rained firestorms down upon my cousins, the sight of the Brandenburg Gate decked out in the Union flag was an extraordinary and heart warming moment. It was not lit by the British as a symbol of conquest. It was lit by the Germans, free, united and peaceful as a spontaneous act of respect, solidarity and unity of one great European people to another. Because after centuries of fighting and for the first time since the fall of Rome, all the powers of Europe have come together in the EU as one. First we are all Europeans. Next comes our national identity.

But soon my pride turns to anger. For, through a fraudulent prospectus which promised the undeliverable, England, not Scotland or Northern Ireland, with Wales in the process of changing its mind, has voted to walk away from the greatest peace project in all of civilized history. Not only has this stupid display of vanity and bravado placed at risk the EU. It has put a very real strain upon the Union of the British Isles. So the Brandenburg picture may have historic significance. The days of the Union flag itself may be numbered.

I hold these,  mainly English, Brexiteers responsible for a shocking act of political vandalism, which devalues the great sacrifices made in two terrible European wars and squanders the heritage bequeathed to us though the blood of millions. Instead of moving forward as a great power within the European family, their vision is to become some sort of international courtesan, sleeping, sorry trading, with everybody and partnered to no one. We all know how those stories end.