Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 79

Holiday Reads From .99p

Ideal holiday/travel reading. From departure lounge to beach, two compelling reads with a spooky touch. From .99p download and £4.99 paperback. ($1.29 and $.7.99)

         Click Images  U.K.

U.S.  Amazon.com                U.S. Amazon.com

 

Afghanistan: Trump’s U Turn

The fundamentals have not changed and the posture of this blog remains. It is this. The central government in Afghanistan is corrupt and does not command the support of the whole country. Left to its own devices it would be overthrown. US forces, now largely in an advisory and training role and supported by NATO contributions, prevent that happening. Even so, the Taliban now control almost half the country. So the mission, after sixteen years and between one and two trillion dollars spent and nearly 2500 American lives lost, is failing by any rational standard.

Without a central government capable of clean rule for all, which has majority support across the country and is accepted  or participated in by the Taliban, there can be no solution. All the military might of America cannot deliver this fundamental foundation to move forward. Trump’s instinct was to pull out.

He has changed his mind because there is a real risk that IS, in retreat all over the Middle East, will re-establish itself in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda hangs on there as well. To prevent this the US military want to beef up their operation to support the Afghan government forces and perhaps play a more proactive role, at least to stop further loss of territory to the Taliban and for sure to crush the IS threat. On the face of it that makes sense.

So does the desire to negotiate with the Taliban and to engage with Pakistan and India, not only to join in the process of finding a settlement, but also to resolve their own differences which contribute to instability in the region. Failure to do any of this could precipitate a Taliban take over on its own terms, triggering another mass migration with which Europe would be hard pressed to cope. Moreover there must be enough troops to deal with IS decisively and enough lateral thinking to understand that the Taliban is an ally in that aim. As are both Pakistan and India. The details are not yet clear but the clear impression from the Trump administration is that all branches understand this.

Nevertheless the core problem remains, even after this re-engagement gets under way. The central government in Kabul is fundamentally incompetent and corrupt, not as bad as the last one certainly, but still not good enough to prevail. Until that is put right there can be no solution. So the US and NATO will either have to abandon the project and let Afghanistan  go its own way like Viet Nam, where the corrupt government of South Vietnam torpedoed the entire US effort,  or stay at least to contain the terrorist threats within Afghanistan’s own borders. That could be a long haul. Think 100 years. Even then it may fail. It always has in the past.

Political Thriller from £2.08: Bargain Summer Read

CLICK IMAGE FOR DETAILS

CLICK HERE FOR U.S.and Amazon.com

Another Naval Collision

It is surprising to learn of another collision between a U.S. warship and a cargo vessel in the Far East. Once again it involves significant loss of life among U.S. navy personnel. In the earlier incident serious disciplinary penalties have been applied to several crew members, starting with the captain. We do not know the cause of this latest collision, nor who will be found at fault in which vessel. Certainly we feel for the families of those injured and missing.

It may be that these similar incidents represent the pure coincidence of misfortune. or it may be that some kind of update is required to the rules of navigation of modern warships in crowded waters. Perhaps all navies should review their procedures, not just that of the U.S.

Gothic Crime from .99p

Ideal holiday/travel reading. From departure lounge to beach, two compelling reads with a spooky touch. From .99p download and £4.99 paperback. ($1.29 and $.7.99)

         Click Images  U.K.

          U.S.  Amazon.com                U.S. Amazon.com

 

Brexit Economics

A group of Brexit economists has proposed that a hard exit would actually boost the economy. Their proposition has been widely condemned by other economists. This is the problem with economics. As a science there is no such thing, but as a discipline it is almost infinitely variable. One move this way will trigger consequences that way; everything is cause and effect. It is a matter of opinion which is good and which is bad. It is often a matter of ideology too. It is very much a matter of where you are in the economic fabric. Your neighbour’s advantage can be your disaster.

This is why it is in the end politicians who have to take decisions, because it is their job to manipulate the levers of economic power in an order which advances the  well being of the whole of society, bringing improved prosperity to all parts of it. It must also create the environment for the development of new technologies to build new trading opportunities and career prospects. This generates the taxation revenue to pay for health, education and environmental needs which make the whole process function on an upward trajectory. When politicians do that well the nation prospers.

But when they fall short, as now, prosperity flat-lines or retreats. Whatever economists say.

Perfect Holiday Reads from Tor Raven

      

Ideal holiday/travel reading. From departure lounge to beach, two compelling reads with a spooky touch. From .99p download and £4.99 paperback. ($1.29 and $.7.99)

         Click Images  U.K.

U.S.  Amazon.com                U.S. Amazon.com

 

Barcelona Attack

The terrible news last evening produced world wide condemnation and expressions of sympathy for the victims and their families, to which this Blog adds its own shocked voice.

Unfortunately there is really no defence against random attacks by low profile terrorists using ordinary vehicles as weapons. One can only hope that as time goes by a way will be found to increase the protection of innocent people. Having said that the level of protection provided by police and security forces all across Europe is remarkable, considering the ease with which these outrages can be put into effect. The shooting dead of a number of terrorist suspects by the police in what appears to be a repeat attempt to run down pedestrians in Cambrils, shows just how fine is the line between success and failure in this deadly situation.

As always the heroes of the hour are first responders, the police and the medics who rush forward into danger to save and protect. So are those who are free to flee but stay to help loved ones or complete strangers who have been struck down in the mayhem.

It would be good if we could see and end to all this. Meanwhile we have to do our best to minimise and contain it. In that we all have a responsibility to watch and be wary.

 

Holiday Reading: From .99p

Click Image For Details

Click Here For U.S.

Charlottesville : It Is Not About Trump.

On the face of it this is a situation full of hate and extremism which must be condemned. Driving a car at speed at people with intent to kill is an evil act for which there is no excuse and for which retribution is due. White Supremacists, Ku Klux Klan and all similar organisations should simply not be there. But they are. And that is the problem.

The scars of the American Civil War run very deep, as perhaps do those of all civil wars. True the majority accept the way it is and want to live in harmony focused on the future not the past. But a minority passes, from one generation to the next, a bitterness about being conquered which does not dim with time. Rather, it smolders until a bursts into violence over a contentious issue. Perhaps it is made worse because the losing side, the South, has not  ever become generally as prosperous as the North.

Partly it is because of a different culture and interpretation of what America is about. There is a legacy about slavery and about poor whites. None of this provides a set of excuses but it does point to a set of reasons and worst of all it provides a breeding ground for hate. Condemnation is both good and necessary. But so would be action to delve beneath the surface, identify the issues and do something about them. Because extremism can only prosper in a bed of injustice, it does not function without a driver.

This is not about Trump. Yes he did not chose his words well and yes his brawl with the press was neither presidential nor wise. Yes it is the case that most of the Alt Right if they vote at all, vote for Trump. Yet not all the points Trump made were without merit. The business of moving statues is one. And the reminder that Washington and Jefferson were slave owners is another. But the suggestion of equivalence between locals confronting the Alt Right in all its forms and organisations like the Ku Klux Klan, White Supremacists and Neo Nazis, is plainly offensive to most of the world.

What really shocks Brits and I suspect many others is the fact that these organisations which offend and appall are legally protected under the U.S.Constitution. There is surely a distinction between freedom and licence. Moreover they marched in Charlottesville with a formal permit provided by the authorities.

It is now clear to all the world that America has many social fault lines and is both divided and and a lot less happy than it believes itself to be. It has failed to inaugurate a proper healing process from the legacy of the Civil War and it has failed to address the root causes of the schism which caused it in the first place. Only slavery itself has been resolved and while that is indeed good, much else has been left to fester.  All Americans must share the blame.  Now they must unite to start seriously to resolve these issues. They will not go away on their own.  It will take time, patience, tolerance and compromise to deal with them, but time has shown they are not fading away.