Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 78
August 29, 2017
![Downfall in Downing Street: Power, Corruption, Lies and Sex by [Blair-Robinson, Malcolm]](https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/hostedimages/1499696470i/23258667.jpg)
Labour and Brexit: Not a U-Turn
Hard Brexiteers are naturally accusing the Labour leadership of a U-Turn over Brexit, because as the realities become ever clearer, it has decided to advocate the only course available to reduce the negative impact of the whole Brexit folly. This is to support a transitional period when, after formally leaving, we remain inside both the single market and customs union for however long it takes to reach a final settlement. During that time all the current rules will have to apply including the four freedoms. After that it may be even possible to remain in both the market and the union on some Norway style deal.
In case anyone worries that this may damage Labour’s electoral prospects it is worth recording that research has revealed that two thirds of Labour voters voted Remain, even in heavily Leave voting areas, so Labour has no choice but to put the economy and jobs first and above whimsical sound bites about Global Britain, which mean nothing. In the EU we are a leading member of the world’ largest trading area and common market and through that relationship we have trading deals with 37 other countries. All of that goes if we leave and we have to start from scratch with everybody. Even to get back to square one could take years.
Daily it becomes ever clearer that the deal offered in the referendum was never available in the terms described with the outcomes promised. As the truth of one of the greatest political cons in history dawns, the mandate would be reversed if put to the test. The majority in the country know this, the EU knows this, and all the political parties in the UK know this save for three, the Tory party, the DUP and the near defunct UKIP. They are in denial, but soon even the for them the truth will become impossible any longer to avoid.
August 27, 2017
Brexit: Labour’s Dramatic Move
Like many key events which occur in politics today, Labour’s decision to go for remaining in both the Customs Union and the Single Market during a transition period and additionally not ruling out remaining in both as part of a Brexit settlement, is a game changer. So far few commentators have remarked on it in those terms.
There is now no chance of the government pushing through some type of hard Brexit, or cliff edge leap at the end of negotiations failing, because the Parliament now has an overwhelming majority for a soft Brexit, which puts the economy first. Practically every organisation representing either business or the workforce, science, education, the list goes on and on, is pressing for this. In the commons Labour, the SNP, the Lib Dems and a good part of Tory MPs, together with the House of Lords would not allow such madness through. A Brexiteer dash to the country for a mandate for WTO rules etc. would court disaster for the Tories, even oblivion.
So the Brexit of the Red Bus has unraveled. Yesterday we gave Boris a good mark for his Libya efforts. Today that is cancelled out. As the cheer leader of the dishonest and ignorant Leave campaign, he must take his responsibility for this turn of events. Nobody did their homework; they were all clueless about what was involved. And they were, to use Boris’s own turn of phrase, wildly optimistic.
August 26, 2017
Hess Secrets: Download or Paperback from .99p
DOWNLOAD OR PAPERBACK FROM .99P 
Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s deputy and right hand man, flew to Scotland on a mysterious peace mission in 1941, which has never been convincingly explained, to meet unidentified politicians who wanted to end the war. The truth has been covered up for generations because to reveal it would somehow undermine the honour and constitutional fabric of the United Kingdom. Who was plotting against Churchill? What were the peace terms on offer? What happened to Hess? Was he killed in the War? Was the prisoner in Spandau a double?
There are many questions to which in the modern day one man, Saul Benedict has all the answers, because his parents were players in the drama involving Churchill, Hitler, leading politicians and an important Royal. Saul is an author and declares his intention to write a book to reveal all, but he is shot dead, apparently accidentally by a poacher. But was it an accident? Rick Coleman an investigative journalist determines to find out and in doing so to uncover the mystery.
Taking place in the modern day but with flashback chapters which gradually unfold the hidden secrets, the novel is a fast moving and compelling read based on the family knowledge of the author whose parents had connections to both Hess and Hitler and to British Intelligence.
Trump White House: Now Gorka Goes
General Kelly was tasked with sorting out the dysfunctional White House. He appears, with the sacking of Sebastian Gorka, to have completed the main phase. Some will ring their hands in anxiety and wonder if the Trump project is on the rocks. Regular readers will know that this blog judges Trump on his actions. Sometimes he is right, sometimes wrong, but he is the President of the United States and it is in none of our interests if he cannot govern, whatever our politics.
The problem in the early months has been that Trump was not a politician, which is why he was elected, but neither were most of his early appointments. If that were all, they would have quickly learned on the job, but unfortunately in many cases, particularly Bannen and Gorka, they were also ideologues. And the problem with ideologues is that they put ideology first and deliverability second. That leads to chaos. That is because democratic government is about compromise.
It is about governing for those who support you as well as those who do not. It is about building consensus among competing interests and egos. Moreover this is especially the case with the US Federal system which is designed to do nothing if consensus cannot be built, unless there is a substantial majority uniting both the legislature and the executive on a course of action. Theoretically the Republicans control all three organs of government, but in practice the Republican party is composed of factions who cannot agree. In the country Trump has a pretty solid base around 40% of voters, but he won the electoral college while losing the popular vote.
So for Trump to achieve a solid record sufficient to inspire his base and win over uncommitted voters, he has to deliver beyond the scope of Executive Orders, useful tool of presidential government although they are undoubtedly are. He has to get through Congress legislation to enable tax cuts for business, infrastructure renewal and a workable healthcare plan. He also has to deal with North Korea, IS, Afghanistan, Fair Trade, re-patriation of jobs and immigration.
Whether this is your agenda is irrelevant to this post. It is Trump’s agenda and the one upon which he was elected. He has to score well on all these issues and he can only do that with a White House which has delivery skills entirely absent from his original line up. If you cut through the media feeding frenzy over every word the free-wheeling Trump utters, to try and detect a different meaning to what he said on the same issue an hour ago, there are already signs of steadier hands at the wheels of state in the Executive Mansion.
August 25, 2017
Boris and Libya: He Is Right
It is not often that the blog comes out in support of Boris, but the Foreign Secretary’s visit to Libya, a minor coup for him, revealed a far more realistic minister than the showman clown we have become used to. He told the Libyans not to make the same mistake as Theresa May and call an election before they were ready and also admitted that the UK government (of which he was not then a member but TM was) was wildly optimistic about its Libya intervention and getting rid of Gaddafi was a tragedy for the Libyan people. This candour is both realistic and refreshing. Well done Boris.
It may not go down too well in Downing Street. But Boris is not fussed about that. They can just whistle.
August 24, 2017
Hess Secrets Revealed
DOWNLOAD OR PAPERBACK FROM .99P
Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s deputy and right hand man, flew to Scotland on a mysterious peace mission in 1941, which has never been convincingly explained, to meet unidentified politicians who wanted to end the war. The truth has been covered up for generations because to reveal it would somehow undermine the honour and constitutional fabric of the United Kingdom. Who was plotting against Churchill? What were the peace terms on offer? What happened to Hess? Was he killed in the War? Was the prisoner in Spandau a double?
There are many questions to which in the modern day one man, Saul Benedict has all the answers, because his parents were players in the drama involving Churchill, Hitler, leading politicians and an important Royal. Saul is an author and declares his intention to write a book to reveal all, but he is shot dead, apparently accidentally by a poacher. But was it an accident? Rick Coleman an investigative journalist determines to find out and in doing so to uncover the mystery.
Taking place in the modern day but with flashback chapters which gradually unfold the hidden secrets, the novel is a fast moving and compelling read based on the family knowledge of the author whose parents had connections to both Hess and Hitler and to British Intelligence.
Migration Figures: The Role of the £
One of the drivers of the influx of workers from the EU, particularly the Eastern EU, has in the past been the high value of sterling in relation to the euro. In the eurozone a euro buys more or less what a pound buys in the UK. But if you are from the euro area and you work here and send money home, there has been a handy bonus because the converted pounds produce more euros. With the decline of sterling since the Brexit vote and the increased strength of the euro economy, which is now growing faster than a UK mired in uncertainty about the Brexit deal, the bonus has dwindled to next to nothing. Many analysts expect parity when we reach the actual Brexit moment.
So the fact that the net migration numbers are falling has probably as much to do with the currency as it has to do with politics.
August 23, 2017
Brexit Reality
The latest papers coming from the government explaining its negotiating position, a revelation both for the UK and the EU, is proving beyond all doubt that the project is incapable of being delivered in the terms in which it was promised and that the mandate authorising it was based on a completely flawed understanding of what leaving the EU would actually entail and what it would really mean. That is a terrible indictment of the political class for which it will one day pay a very heavy price.
It also reinforces the increasing number of informed and sober opinions that in the end the outcome will either be very similar to being in the EU without the involvement in the political process of running it, or the whole project will collapse and be abandoned. Because the more the whole undertaking is exposed, the less are the apparent advantages of being out over in. The political reality of that is that few if any voted to be worse off. We need to remember we live in a democracy which, when cheated, will have its revenge.
