Malcolm Blair-Robinson's Blog, page 140
December 24, 2015
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Coal And Steel: The Killer Pound
Deep coal mining has now ended altogether in the UK not because we have stopped using coal, but because we can import it more cheaply. The steel industry is in crisis because the home industry cannot compete with cheaper imports. Manufacturing is falling as are exports because our goods are too expensive. For all of this there is a common cause. The pound.
The pound is grossly overvalued, killing not just exports but home production as well. The means to reduce its value are out of service; interest rates are already at near zero. Until this fundamental flaw in the economic model is put right there will be no economic recovery of substance based on a foundation stronger than house price inflation and shopping.
The latest figures are not promising. Trade gap is up, growth is down, tax revenue is down and government borrowing is up. Osborne has a lot to think about.
December 23, 2015
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Brexit: Hague Warns
William Hague was always regarded as a Euro sceptic. But he now warns that, for all its faults, Britain is better off in than out; the same view as this blog. He also warns, as this blog has done for months, that a vote to leave which would be achieved by the weight of English votes, would lead to the end of the United Kingdom. Scotland, which is pro the EU simply would not be willing to be yanked out against its will and a new referendum would take it out of the UK for certain. Wales and Northern Ireland would be left in difficulty. They are both pro EU. The case for a united Ireland would become stronger. Wales would have little option but to grin and bear it, but the nationalist movement would gain ground as time went on. The out campaign waffle about trade deals but nobody offers even a hint of what these would be; either with whom or on what terms. They do not discuss the impact on the integrity of the UK. They know they cannot because they have no answer. Hague’s intervention will come as a blow to their pride.
Few discuss the effect on the EU itself of a British exit. It is becoming clear that it could be a disaster for the whole project. Europe has four major pillars. Britain, Germany, France and Russia. Foolishly Russia is excluded, so it holds up with three pillars. Take Britain away and you are left with France and Germany. But Germany is by far the stronger economically and would bear the weight and call the shots. The EU would be the new German Empire in all but name. This is just beginning to dawn upon many European capitals. No wonder the Polish President is anxious.
December 22, 2015
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Osborne Misses Another Target: Wow Really?
So soon after his bravura performance in his Autumn Statement during which his party, lined up on the benches behind him, became hysterical with delight as he found big increases in tax revenue, about which nothing had been know before, the first test has been a spectacular disaster. Government Borrowing in November is up on last year, reaching above a hefty £14 billion in the month. So another forecast from our George is wrong. Dear me! Who would have guessed it? Practically everyone.
Trouble In Helmand
Once again we arrive at the predicted point. The government we left behind in Afghanistan is weak, divided and losing authority. Its forces are low in morale and ready to switch sides. An assertive Taliban grows in confidence and piles on pressure with its own distinctive and deadly brand of moped warfare. A weary population is often willing to accept the medieval order of Taliban rule in preference to the corrupt incompetence of the Kabul authorities.
The response to this in the West is to call for some kind of military intervention. It will not work, it will cost many lives, it will make the lives of Afghans a misery and the project would be supremely futile. The Russians tried for years and lost. The West mobilised almost all of NATO for thirteen long years and have achieved next to nothing. Political authorities in the West are deaf and blind to reason and their military do their bidding for fear of budget cutbacks if they don’t.
There is no solution to the tides of tribal traditions and loyalties in Afghanistan and has never been since the Ripping yarns of the North West Frontier. Fundamental Islam actually fits the piece better than most other visions of life. To ensure it is more progressive and less bloodthirsty requires a settlement of rivalries in which Pakistan is the regional power, and must be in the driving seat of any brokered deal both in Afghanistan and its own tribal territories. Everybody else can help by supporting Pakistan and providing aid to establish economic reform so that an economy based on more than poppies can emerge and lift living standards into the twenty-first century. That will be the most effective engine of social and every other kind of reform. Anybody who asserts that more military intervention from the West will somehow speed the process is being little short of idiotic.
December 21, 2015
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December 19, 2015
Christmas Book Sale : Free Downloads
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