Heather Cox Richardson's Blog, page 37
April 8, 2025
April 7, 2025
Major indexes on the stock market began down more than 3% today when, as Allison Morrow of CNN reported, a rumor that Trump was considering delaying his tariffs by three months sent stocks surging upward by almost 8%. The rumor was unfounded—it appeared to begin from a small account on X—but it indicated how desperate traders are to see an end to President Donald J. Trump’s trade war.
As soon as the rumor was discredited, the market began to fall again, although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s announcement that he is opening trade negotiations with Japan and looking forward to talks with other countries appeared to reassure some traders that Trump's tariffs will not last. The wild swings made the day one of the most volatile in stock market history. It ended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 349 points and the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite staying relatively flat. Futures for tomorrow are up slightly.
Foreign markets fared badly today, suggesting that the reality of Trump’s tariffs is beginning to sink in. Sam Goldfarb of the Wall Street Journal notes that Hong Kong’s Hang Seng took its biggest dive since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, losing 13%, and that other markets also fell today.
Goldfarb reports that in the U.S., traders are deeply worried about losses but also anxious about missing a rebound if the administration changes its policies. Hence the extreme volatility of the market. Generally, values over 30 are considered indicators of increased risk and uncertainty in the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, the so-called fear gauge. Today, it spiked to 60.
Business leaders are speaking out publicly against Trump’s tariffs. Today, Ken Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot and a major Republican donor, told the Financial Times: “I don’t understand the goddamn formula.”
Senate Republicans are also starting to push back. Seven Republican senators have now signed onto a bill that would limit Trump’s ability to impose tariffs. The power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, but Congress has permitted a president to adjust tariffs on an emergency basis. Trump declared an emergency, and it is on that ground that he has upended more than 90 years of global economic policy.
Trump has threatened to veto any such legislation, but he will not need to if Senate majority leader John Thune (R-SD) and House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refuse to bring the measure to a vote. Jordain Carney and Meredith Lee Hill of Politico report that while Republicans express concern about the tariffs in private, leaders will stand with the president because they must have the votes of MAGA lawmakers to pass any of their legislative agenda through Congress, and to get that they will need Trump’s support. Others are worried about incurring Trump’s wrath and, with it, a primary challenger.
“People are skittish. They’re all worried about it,” Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) told Carney and Hill. “But they are putting on a stiff upper lip to act as though nothing is happening and hoping it goes away.”
But so far, it does not look as if it’s going to go away. Today the European Commission has announced 25% countertariffs in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
Trump’s response to the crisis has been to double down on his tariff plan. This morning he wrote on his social media network that he will impose additional 50% tariffs on China effective on Wednesday unless it drops the retaliatory tariffs it has placed on U.S. products. Rather than backing down, China said it would “fight to the end.”
Today, in a press conference convened in the Oval Office, Trump explained his thinking behind why he has begun a global tariff war. "You know, our country was the strongest, believe it or not, from 1870 to 1913. You know why? It was all tariff based. We had no income tax,” he said. “Then in 1913, some genius came up with the idea of let’s charge the people of our country, not foreign countries that are ripping off our country, and the country was never, relatively, was never that kind of wealth. We had so much wealth we didn’t know what to do with our money. We had meetings, we had committees, and these committees worked tirelessly to study one subject: we have so much money, what are going to do with it, who are we going to give it to? And I hope we’re going to be in that position again.”
Aside from this complete misreading of American history—Civil War income taxes lasted until 1875, for example, tariffs are paid by consumers, the Panics of 1873 and 1893 devastated the economy, few Americans at the time thought the Gilded Age was a golden age, and I have no clue what he’s referring to with the talk about committees—Trump’s larger motivation is clear: he wants to get rid of income taxes.
Congress passed the 1913 Revenue Act imposing income taxes to shift the cost of supporting the government from ordinary Americans, especially the women who by then made up a significant portion of household consumers, to men of wealth. Tariffs were regressive because they fell disproportionately on working-class Americans through their everyday purchases. Income taxes spread costs more evenly, according to a man’s ability to pay. The switch from tariffs to income taxes helped to break the power of the so-called robber barons, the powerful industrialists who controlled the U.S. economy and government in the late nineteenth century.
To get rid of income taxes, Trump and his Republicans have backed the decimation of the government services that support ordinary Americans.
Today, in the Oval Office press conference, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested where they intend to put government money, promising a defense budget of $1 trillion, a significant jump from the current $892 defense budget. “[W]e have to be strong because you’ve got a lot of bad forces out there now,” Trump said.
Allison McCann, Alexandra Berzon, and Hamed Aleaziz of the New York Times reported today that the administration also intends to spend as much as $45 billion over the next two years on new detention facilities for immigrants. In the last fiscal year, the total amount of federal money allocated to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement was about $3.4 billion. The new facilities will be in private hands and will operate with lower standards and less oversight than current detention facilities.
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Notes:
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 7, 2025, 11:14 am.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czrvngj03jlo
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.VIX/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-tariffs-live-updates-stock-market-crypto.html
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/senate-tariff-bill-must-become-the-focus
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/07/trump-veto-tariff-bill-grassley
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/mike-johnson-john-thune-trump-tariffs-republicans-00273959
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-congress-republicans-powerless-00271537
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/07/business/wall-street-trump-tariff-nightcap/index.html
https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tariffs-trade-trump-b5010acb08114304d8c36267b47eda13
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/07/media/fake-news-x-post-caused-market-whiplash/index.html
https://meidasnews.com/news/european-union-slaps-25-tariffs-on-united-states-in-retaliation
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/hegseth-trump-1-trillion-defense-budget-00007147
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/28/politics/alien-enemies-act-supreme-court/index.html
YouTube:
Bluesky:
April 7, 2025
April 6, 2025 (Sunday)
After President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 wiped $5 trillion dollars from the stock market, the Republican Party is scrambling.
Farmers, who were a part of Trump’s base, are “struck and shocked” by the tariffs, the president of the South Dakota Farmers Union told Lauren Scott of CBC News, saying they will have a “devastating effect.” Rob Copeland, Lauren Hirsch, and Maureen Farrell of the New York Times report that Wall Street leaders who backed Trump are now criticizing him publicly, with one calling for someone to stop him. The size of yesterday’s peaceful protests around the country, less than 100 days into Trump’s term when he should be enjoying a honeymoon, demonstrated growing fury at the administration’s actions.
Yesterday, in the midst of the economic crisis and as millions of protesters gathered across the country, the White House announced that “[t]he President won his second round matchup of the Senior Club Championship today in Jupiter, FL, and advances to the Championship Round tomorrow.” This afternoon, President Donald J. Trump posted a video of himself hitting a golf ball off a tee, perhaps as a demonstration that he is unconcerned about the chaos in the markets.
When Trump administration officials Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett appeared on this morning’s Sunday shows, their attempts to reassure Americans and deflect concerns also sounded out of touch.
Bessent, a billionaire, told Kristen Welker of NBC’s Meet the Press that the administration is creating a new, more secure economic system and that Americans “who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I think don’t look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what’s happening.” He went on to suggest that the losses were likely not that significant and would turn out fine in the long term.
Lutnick insisted that the tariffs are about national security and bringing back manufacturing, although the administration has frozen the Inflation Reduction Act funding for the manufacturing President Joe Biden brought to the U.S., overwhelmingly in Republican-dominated districts. Lutnick kept hitting on the MAGA talking point that other countries are ripping the U.S. off, and insisted that the tariffs are here to stay.
On This Week by ABC News, Hassett took the opposite position: that countries are already calling the White House to begin tariff negotiations. Host George Stephanopoulos asked Hassett about the video Trump posted on his social media account claiming that he was crashing the market on purpose, forcing him to say that crashing the economy was not part of Trump’s strategy. Hassett claimed that the tariffs will not cost consumers more and that Trump is “trying to deliver for American workers.”
The tariffs not only have forced administration officials into contradictory positions, but also have brought into the open the rift between old MAGA and billionaire Elon Musk.
Trump’s tariff policy reflects the ideas of his senior counselor on manufacturing and trade, Peter Navarro, a China hawk who invented an “expert” to support his statements in his own books. Musk, who opposes the tariffs, has taken shots at Navarro on his social media platform X. On Saturday, Musk directly contradicted Trump and MAGA when he told a gathering of right-wing Italians that he wants the U.S. and Europe to create a tariff-free zone as well as "more freedom of people to move between Europe and North America." On the Fox News Channel this morning, Navarro retorted that Musk “sells cars” and is just trying to protect his own interests.
Republicans also have to quell fires as the demands of the very different constituencies Trump brought into his coalition to win in 2024 are creating growing anger. A second child has now died of measles in West Texas, and as of this morning, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has a history of opposing vaccines, had continued to call vaccines a personal decision. Although he is not a doctor, he pushed the idea that ingesting Vitamin A helps patients recover from measles. Since his suggestion, a hospital in Texas says it is now treating children whose bodies have toxic levels of Vitamin A.
During the confirmation process for his post, Kennedy seems to have promised Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA), chair of the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions and a medical doctor, that he would not alter vaccine systems, but since taking office he has made dramatic cuts. Today, Cassidy posted on X, “Everyone should be vaccinated!” and added: “Top health officials should say so unequivocally b/4 another child dies.”
Evidently feeling the pressure as the measles outbreak spreads, Kennedy this afternoon conceded on X that “[t]he most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine.”
Today, Dan Diamond and Hannah Natanson of the Washington Post reported that cuts to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have even Republican lawmakers and former Trump officials from his first term worried that the country is at risk of food-related disease outbreaks like the 2022 contamination of infant formula. On April 4, Heather Vogell of ProPublica reported that the Abbott Laboratories factory at the heart of the 2022 crisis continues to use the same unsanitary practices. Employees told her that workers still take shortcuts when cleaning and checking equipment for bacteria as supervisors try to increase production and retaliate against those who complain about problems.
The White House told Diamond and Natanson that cuts to the FDA and other health agencies will make them more “nimble and strategic.” Abbott Laboratories told Vogell that the workers’ assertions were “untrue or misleading” and said it “stands behind the quality and safety of all our products.”
Diamond and Natanson note that experts who worked under both Republican and Democratic presidents, as well as former Trump officials and Republican lawmakers are also concerned about cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which monitors atmospheric and ocean systems and predicts weather, and to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) that responds to disasters. Storms across the South have been wreaking havoc in the past days. Today alone saw deadly weather in Arkansas, Texas, Missouri, and Oklahoma; the governors of Tennessee and Kentucky have declared states of emergency.
Reporter James Fallows notes that the U.S. senators from the states hardest hit—Arkansas, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas—are all Republicans and are all backing Trump and Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” which is behind the cuts to NOAA and FEMA.
Today, Michael Sainato of The Guardian reported that workers at the Social Security Administration say that cuts to staffing and services along with policy changes have created “complete, utter chaos” at the agency that is threatening to cause a “death spiral.” Acting commissioner of the Social Security Administration Leland Dudek told Sainato that “we are updating our policy to provide better customer service to the country’s most vulnerable populations.”
Late Thursday, Trump fired General Timothy D. Haugh, the director of the National Security Agency (NSA) and of the U.S. Cyber Command, as well as Haugh’s deputy at the NSA, Wendy Noble, and several staff members from the White House National Security Council. He apparently did so at the recommendation of right-wing conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer. The NSA collects information from overseas computer networks, while Cyber Command engages in both offensive and defensive operations on them.
While Democrats are out front, lawmakers across the political spectrum are concerned about the firings. Senator Angus King (I-ME), who sits on the Senate Intelligence Committee, told Julian E. Barnes of the New York Times: “Our country is under attack right now in cyberspace, and the president has just removed our top general from the field for no reason at the recommendation of someone who knows nothing about national security or even the job this general does.”
And then there is the crisis over the arrest and rendition of Kilmar Abrego Garcia to prison in El Salvador. Abrego Garcia was in the U.S. legally, is married to a U.S. citizen, and is the father of a U.S. citizen. In 2019 a court barred the government from deporting him to El Salvador. On March 31 an official from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) told the court under oath that Abrego Garcia had been arrested and deported to prison because of an “administrative error.” And yet the government also said it could not get him back because he is no longer in U.S. jurisdiction.
After a hearing on Friday, U.S. District Judge Paula Xinis ordered the government to bring Abrego Garcia back to the United States no later than 11:59 p.m. on April 7. The administration immediately filed an emergency motion to stop the order while it appeals her decision. Today, Xinis filed her opinion, which said that “there were no legal grounds whatsoever for his arrest, detention, or removal…. [H]is detention appears wholly lawless.” It is “a clear constitutional violation.” And yet administration officials “cling to the stunning proposition that they can forcibly remove any person—migrant and U.S. citizen alike—to prisons outside the United States, and then baldly assert they have no way to effectuate return because they are no longer the 'custodian,' and the Court thus lacks jurisdiction.”
Today, Cecilia Vega, Aliza Chasan, Camilo Montoya-Galvez, Andy Court, and Annabelle Hanflig of CBS News’s 60 Minutes reported that 75% of the Venezuelans the Trump administration sent to prison in El Salvador “have no apparent criminal convictions or even criminal charges.” Another 22% have records for nonviolent crimes like shoplifting or trespassing. A dozen or so are accused of murder, rape, assault, or kidnapping. When the reporters reached out to the Department of Homeland Security about these numbers, a spokesperson said that those without criminal records “are actually terrorists, human rights abusers, gangsters, and more; they just don't have a rap sheet in the U.S.”
This utter disregard for the constitutional right to due process is raising alarm among Americans who have noted that when Trump declared an emergency at the southern border on January 20, he ordered the secretary of defense and the secretary of homeland security to advise him whether they thought it necessary to invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act. That act allows a president during times of civil unrest to use the military against U.S. citizens.
U.S. stock futures plunged again tonight, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 1,250 points, or 3.3%, S&P 500 futures down 3.7%, and Nasdaq futures down 4.6%. And yet Trump is doubling down on tariffs, posting that they are “a beautiful thing to behold…. Some day people will realize that Tariffs, for the United States of America, are a very beautiful thing!”
Republican leaders have not silenced the chatter about Trump serving a third term, despite its obvious unconstitutionality, at least in part because they know he is the only person who can turn out MAGA voters. But their calculations appear to be changing. Today, Attorney General Pam Bondi told Fox News Sunday that Trump is a “very smart man, and…I wish we could have him for 20 years as our president,” but that “I think he’s going to be finished, probably, after this term.”
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Notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/16/us/politics/peter-navarro-ron-vara.html
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-golf-win-announcement-sparks-backlash-tariff-fallout-2055892
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 6, 2025 12:30 pm.
https://www.esgdive.com/news/ira-funding-freeze-caused-clean-energy-projects-to-pause/741940/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg2xyyj9w5o
https://www.dw.com/en/rfk-jrs-measles-cure-sickens-texas-kids-amid-outbreak/a-72149122
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/06/musk-doge-social-security
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/canada-us-tariffs-north-south-dakota-farmers-1.7502342
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/business/stock-market-plunge-investment-bank-impact.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/05/us/politics/nsa-director-haugh-trump-loomer.html
https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/5233036-trump-ousters-cyber-ops/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuelan-migrants-deportations-el-salvador-prison-60-minutes/
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mdd.578815/gov.uscourts.mdd.578815.31.0.pdf
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/rfk-jr-made-promises-win-key-senators-vote-118500043
The BulwarkWill Trump Invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 Next?IF YOU’VE BEEN FOLLOWING THIS NEWSLETTER, you already know that Trump is fixated on carrying out mass deportations, no matter what the law says—e…Read more3 days ago · 704 likes · 152 comments · Adrian Carrasquillohttps://www.cnn.com/2025/04/06/business/stocks-futures-sunday-tariffs/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/06/pam-bondi-trump-third-term
Bluesky:
peoplefor.bsky.social/post/3lm5vn4uomx2l
jfallows.bsky.social/post/3lm6avtznkc22
ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3lm6m3xfbak2z
X:
SenBillCassidy/status/1908903799701303633
April 6, 2025
April 5, 2025
It’s been quite a week.
On Monday, Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) began an epic speech in the Senate calling out the crisis in which the nation finds itself. He finished just over 25 hours later, on Tuesday, setting a new record for the longest Senate speech. In it, he urged Americans to speak up for our democracy and to “be bolder in America with a vision that inspires with hope.”
Shortly after Booker yielded the floor on Tuesday night, election officials in Wisconsin announced the results of an election for a seat on the state supreme court. The candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump and backed by more than $20 million from billionaire Elon Musk lost the race to his opponent, circuit court judge Susan Crawford, by more than ten points.
On Wednesday, April 2, a day that he called “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced unexpectedly high tariffs on goods produced by countries around the world. On Thursday the stock market plummeted. Friday, the plummet continued while Trump was enjoying a long weekend at one of his private golf resorts.
And then today, across the country, millions of people turned out for “Hands Off” protests to demonstrate opposition to the Trump administration, Musk and the “Department of Government Efficiency” that has been slashing government agencies and employees, and, more generally, attacks on our democracy.
In San Francisco, where Buddy and I joined a protest, what jumped out to me was how many of the signs in the crowd called for the protection of the U.S. Constitution, our institutions, and the government agencies that keep us safe.
Scholars often note that the American Revolution of 250 years ago was a movement not to change the status quo but to protect it. The colonists who became revolutionaries sought to make sure that patterns of self-government established over generations could not be overturned by officials seeking to seize power.
We seem to be at it again….
April 5, 2025
April 4, 2025
The stock market rout continued today. As expected, China announced retaliatory tariffs in response to those President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday. Chinese leaders say they will impose a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods imported into China next Thursday. Apparently, Trump did not think China would respond to his tariffs, and tried to sound as if he was still in control of the situation.
Trump is spending a long weekend in Florida, where he is attending the LIV golf tournament at his Doral club. But at 8:25 this morning, he reposted on his social media channel a video in which the narrator claimed that Trump is crashing the markets on purpose. The video claimed that legendary investor Warren Buffet “just said Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over fifty years.” It went on to explain how “the secret game he’s playing” “could make you rich.” Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway quickly denied Buffett had said any such thing as the video claimed. “All such reports are false,” it said. In March, Buffett called tariffs “an act of war, to some degree.”
Then, about an hour before the U.S. markets opened, Trump posted on his social media channel: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED—THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!” About twenty minutes later, he posted: “TO THE MANY INVESTORS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES AND INVESTING MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF MONEY, MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE. THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH, RICHER THAN EVER BEFORE!!!”
When the markets opened, they plummeted again. During trading today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,231 points, or 5.5%, on top of the 1,679 points it fell yesterday. The S&P 500 fell 5.97% following the 4.84% it lost yesterday. The Nasdaq Composite dropped a further 5.8% after yesterday’s drop of nearly 6%. Oil prices also fell sharply despite the fact that Trump had exempted the U.S. energy industry from tariffs, as traders anticipate lower economic growth and thus less demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Twenty-five minutes before the market closed, Trump posted: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!”
After-market trading continued downward.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today that Trump’s tariffs are “highly likely” to increase inflation and risk throwing people out of work. Economists at JPMorgan now place the odds of global recession at 60% unless the tariffs are ended.
Natalie Allison, Jeff Stein, Cat Zakrzewski, and Michael Birnbaum of the Washington Post reported how Trump came to impose the tariffs. After aides from a number of different government agencies came up with options for Trump to review, he decided instead on a different option, one that has drawn ridicule because it is crude and has nothing to do with tariffs at all. He reached the amounts of tariff levies by dividing the trade deficit of each nation (not including services) by the value of its imports and then dividing the final number by 2.
The reporters note that Trump didn’t land on a plan until less than three hours before he announced it, and made his choice with little input from business or foreign leaders. Neither Republican lawmakers nor the president’s team knew what Trump would do. “He’s at the peak of just not giving a f*ck anymore,” a White House official told the reporters. “Bad news stories? Doesn’t give a f*ck. He’s going to do what he’s going to do. He’s going to do what he promised to do on the campaign trail.”
While right-wing media and Republican lawmakers have worked hard to spin the economic crisis sparked by Trump’s tariffs, Financial Times chief data reporter John Burn-Murdoch used charts on social media to show that Americans are not happy. Consumers give Trump’s economic plan the worst ratings of any administration’s economic policy since records began. He has had the same impact on economic uncertainty as the global coronavirus pandemic did. Almost 60% of Americans expect the economy to deteriorate over the next year, and they are very worried about job losses.
Burn-Murdoch noted that despite the attempt of right-wing media to hide the crisis, more than half of Americans have heard unfavorable business news coverage of the government’s policies. While MAGA continues to approve of Trump, he’s rapidly losing support among the rest of the coalition that put him into office.
The administration apparently doesn’t care much more about the law than it does about the reactions to the tariffs that are crashing the economy. Today, U.S. District Court judge Paula Xinis ordered the government to bring back to the United States no later than 11:59 p.m. on April 7 a legal resident it mistakenly sent to a notorious prison for terrorists in El Salvador. On Monday, administration lawyers told the court that the government had swept up Kilmar Abrego Garcia because of an “administrative error” but that it could not bring him back because he was outside the reach of American laws.
Priscilla Alvarez and Emily R. Condon of CNN note that in a hearing about the case, Xinis said that Abrego Garcia, who was in the U.S. legally and was not charged with any crimes, was arrested last month “without legal basis” and was deported “without justification of legal basis.” “This was an illegal act,” Xinis said. “Congress said you can’t do it, and you did it anyway.”
Trump’s deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, responded to the judge’s order by calling Xinis a “Marxist judge” who “thinks she’s president of El Salvador.” The White House responded to the judge’s order by saying, “We suggest the Judge contact President Bukele [of El Salvador] because we are unaware of the judge having jurisdiction or authority over the country of El Salvador.”
Legal analyst Steve Vladeck responded that while a U.S. federal court cannot order the Salvadoran government to release Abrego Garcia, the U.S. government should be able to secure his release. If it can—and in this case it should be able to—the court can order it to do so.
If that were not the case, the administration could simply get rid of anyone it wanted to by sending them to a prison outside the jurisdiction of the United States and then claiming it had no way to get them back.
Tonight, as the economy is in turmoil, Trump is speaking at a $1 million-per-person candlelight fundraising dinner at the Trump Organization's Mar-a-Lago property for the super PAC, MAGA Inc., that supports Trump. By law, MAGA Inc. can’t coordinate with Trump’s campaign organization, so the invitations for the dinner say that Trump is simply a guest speaker and is not asking for donations.
The terrible storms in the middle of the country continue. Authorities have issued flash flood emergencies in parts of Missouri, Texas, and Arkansas, and heavy rains are also expected in Kentucky.
Finally, four soldiers who died when their military vehicle sank in a deep swamp in Lithuania during a training exercise came home to Dover Air Force Base, in Dover, Delaware, today. Their recovery took about 200 U.S., Polish, Estonian, and Lithuanian personnel a week and required drones, search dogs, Navy divers, and ground-penetrating radar, as well as 70 tons of sand and gravel.
“We consider US soldiers in Lithuania as our own,” the Lithuanian Defense Ministry said after thousands of people joined Lithuanian president Gitanas Nausėda and other dignitaries in a dignified departure ceremony of the soldiers from Lithuania. “The farewell ceremony once again demonstrated our society's solidarity, respect, and gratitude to the Americans.”
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Notes:
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 4, 2025, 8:25 am.
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 4, 2025, 9:25 am.
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 4, 2025, 8:44 am.
Donald J. Trump, Truth Social post, April 4, 2025, 3:35 am.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-tariffs-trade-war-04-04-2025
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/04/economy/jerome-powell-fed-tariffs-jobs/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/business/energy-environment/oil-metals-prices-global-economy.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/04/04/trump-tariffs-reason-advisers/
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/04/trump-exempts-big-oil-donors-from-tariffs
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-hosts-liv-golf-fundraiser-as-stocks-sink-over-tariffs/#
https://apnews.com/article/lithuania-us-missing-soldiers-ceremony-b1877203ae467c5028d1916f1f3fa63e
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/5232651-trump-hegseth-dover-us-soldiers/
Bluesky:
jburnmurdoch.ft.com/post/3llyhgaecsc2b
stevevladeck.bsky.social/post/3llzix6x4xk2p
April 4, 2025
April 3, 2025
April 3, 2025
Trump’s announcement last night that he was placing high tariffs on countries around the world came after the stock market closed, but it drove stock futures dramatically downward. Overseas, global markets also plunged. Today, before the stock market opened, Trump posted on his social media site: “THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING. THE PROGNOSIS IS THAT THE PATIENT WILL BE FAR STRONGER, BIGGER, BETTER, AND MORE RESILIENT THAN EVER BEFORE. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!”
Fittingly, it was former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani who rang the bell opening the stock market today. Giuliani represented Newsmax, the right-wing media channel with ties to Trump. As soon as the market opened, stocks fell straight down. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped 1,679 points, falling about 4%, its biggest fall since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in 2020. The S&P 500 fell 274 points, or 4.8%. The Nasdaq Composite fell more than 1,050 points, or almost 6%. The losses wiped out about $2 trillion.
Trump justified the tariffs by declaring that the U.S. is in the midst of a national emergency, but this afternoon he left the White House for a long weekend in Florida, where his private Doral resort outside of Miami is holding the first domestic golf tournament of the season of LIV Golf, which is financed by the sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia.
Trump’s tariffs are not an economic policy. Tariffs are generally imposed on products, not on nations. By placing them on countries, the White House was able to arrive at its numbers with a nonsensical formula that appears to have been reached by asking AI how to impose tariffs—a suggestion so outlandish that I dismissed when I saw it last night, but economist Paul Krugman today identified it as being a likely possibility. CNBC’s Steve Liesman said: “Nobody ever heard of this formula. Nobody has ever used this formula. So I’m sorry, but the conclusion seems to be the president kind of made this up as he went along....”
Today, former treasury secretary Lawrence Summers posted: “It’s now clear that the [Trump] Administration computed reciprocal tariffs without using tariff data. This is to economics what creationism is to biology, astrology is to astronomy, or RFK thought is to vaccine science. The Trump tariff policy makes little sense EVEN if you believe in protectionist mercantilist economics.”
Editor of The American Prospect David Dayen notes that there is no apparent policy behind the tariffs, no thought, for example, as to whether it is even possible for the U.S. to ramp up the kind of domestic manufacturing Trump claims to want. While Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS, “You’re going to see employment leaping starting today,” in fact, both automaker Stellantis and appliance manufacturer Whirlpool announced layoffs because of the tariffs.
Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo points out that building and establishing a new plant in the U.S. will take a minimum of three to five years even if investors are inclined to support one, but Victoria Guida reported in Politico that corporate executives are saying they cannot invest in manufacturing until they can project costs, and Trump is far too unpredictable to enable them to do that with any confidence.
Dayen writes that Trump’s tariffs are essentially sanctions on the rest of the world. His behavior is, Dayen says, “no different from a mob boss moving into town and sending his thugs to every business on Main Street, roughing up the proprietors and asking for protection money so they don’t get pushed out of business.” Dayen notes that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued last year for using the extraordinary power of the U.S. economy to force other countries to do as the U.S. wants, creating a U.S. sphere of influence through economic pressure.
Extending the comparison to a mob boss, Dayen notes that “protection money” could take many forms: “curbing migration, taking in more U.S. farm exports or weapons systems, reducing industrial capacity in China and forcing more consumption, buying long-dated U.S. debt on the cheap, siding with a war strategy against Iran, literally anything the White House wants.”
Trump’s son Eric appeared to confirm that the tariffs are a shakedown when he posted: “I wouldn’t want to be the last country that tries to negotiate a trade deal with [Trump]. The first to negotiate will win—the last will absolutely lose. I have seen this movie my entire life.…” Foreign affairs journalist David Rothkopf was more graphic: “These aren’t tariffs,” he wrote. “They are a horse’s head in the bed of (almost) every world government and business leader.” Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman suggested that if a government refused to negotiate with Trump, that country’s major companies should deal directly with Trump, exempting that company’s products from tariffs in exchange for a new factory or some other investment Trump wants.
Trump is overturning the past 80 years of global trade cooperation in order to concentrate power in his own hands. Congress began to take down the tariff walls of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries when it passed the 1934 Reciprocal Tariff Act enabling the president to lower the high tariff rates Republicans had established with the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariff. That tariff had worsened the Great Depression. With the turn away from tariff walls and toward international cooperation, global trade has fostered international cooperation and created the rising prosperity of the twentieth century.
“The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday,” Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney said today. “The system of global trade anchored on the United States…is over. Our old relationship of steadily deepening integration with the United States is over. The 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services is over. While this is a tragedy, it is also the new reality.”
Ending systems of global free trade dovetails with the idea of getting rid of the international rules-based order created after World War II. After that horrific war, world leaders decided to create a system of international institutions, like the United Nations and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), to provide ways in which countries could protect their sovereignty and work out their differences without going to war.
Trump’s threats against other countries, including Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark, are a direct rejection of those principles. That rejection reinforces the Trump regime’s embrace of Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which invaded Ukraine first in 2014 and again in 2022 and is trying to justify grabbing Ukrainian territory. Under Trump, the U.S. is siding with Russia rather than Ukraine in this war in a stunning rejection of the institutions and principles that have stabilized the globe since World War II.
Putin is now threatening NATO countries, prompting them to prepare for defense. “We are not at war,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said recently, “but we are certainly not at peace either.”
Some of those advocating tariff walls and forcing our allies to maintain their own defense suggest that creating a U.S. sphere of influence is the best way to counter a rising China, but there is no doubt that the concept of such spheres caters to the worldview of Russian and Chinese leaders. As scholar of authoritarianism Timothy Snyder points out, weakening the U.S. and its allies also benefits Russia by increasing Russia’s power relative to other countries, making it easier to establish the multipolar world Russia wants.
The Trump administration is also undermining post–World War II democracy at home. Last night, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) identified Trump’s tariffs as “a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief.” Murphy pointed to Trump’s shakedown of prominent law firms, four of which he has attacked with executive orders. He also pointed to Trump’s attacks on universities, withholding government funding until their administrators bow to MAGA’s ideological demands.
Sarah D. Wire of USA Today reported that earlier this week the Institute for Museum and Library Studies was effectively closed, and over the past two days the administration told libraries across the country that grants awarded last year have been terminated. Today the administration cut federal grants for arts and humanities across the country: museums, archives, historic sites, educational projects, and so on—all defunded. It also cut this year’s funding for National History Day, a popular history program in schools that is already underway.
On Tuesday, the Department of Health and Human Services slashed jobs and programs in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), even as measles continues to spread and two Louisiana infants have died of whooping cough. Today, news broke that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is implementing a hiring freeze even as flash floods and tornadoes just today have killed at least seven people in the Midwest to the mid-South.
The plan, as Vice President J.D. Vance explained in a 2021 interview, is to destroy the current government, business, educational, cultural, and scientific pillars of the United States in order to replace them with a new system, although there is tension between the Project 2025 wing of MAGA and the technocrats’ wing over whether that new system will be a theocracy or a technocracy. In either case, it will be an authoritarian government in which power and money concentrate in a very few hands.
The administration’s crusade against the state of Maine shows what this looks like. After Maine governor Janet Mills told Trump the state would follow state and federal law rather than bow to his demands, acting Social Security Administration commissioner Leland Dudek canceled contracts permitting Maine parents to apply for Social Security numbers for their newborns from the hospital and for Maine families to report deaths from funeral homes. Told such a change would risk identity theft and wasteful spending, Dudek told the agency to do it anyway in order to punish Mills.
After an outcry, Dudek backtracked, but yesterday the Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, announced she was freezing federal funds for Maine educational programs. The Trump administration would stand against “a leftist social agenda,” Rollins wrote.
The problem for Republicans is that while the sort of inflammatory language Rollins used has been a staple of the party for decades, the MAGA agenda itself is not popular. Only about 4% of voters who knew about Project 2025 wanted to see it enacted, and billionaire Elon Musk, who runs the “Department of Government Efficiency” that is slashing through government programs, is so unpopular that his support for a candidate in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election actually appeared to have hurt, rather than helped, that candidate.
Now party members have to deal with the fact their president has tanked the economy by enacting what the National Review says is likely the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history. Now countries around the globe are imposing reciprocal tariffs on the U.S. while also negotiating their own trade agreements that cut out the U.S. Those agreements are not only for products like soybeans, but also for weapons, a development the administration is protesting.
Republican members of Congress could stop Trump at any time. In the case of tariffs, they could simply reassert their constitutional power to manage tariffs. If they choose not to and the economy doesn’t recover and thrive as Trump keeps promising, voters can be expected to hold them, as well as him, to account.
Right now Republican leaders appear to be hoping that Trump’s attempt to extort other countries will work and the tariffs will be short lived. But their enthusiasm for that strategy seems to be well under control.
Today, Bill Ackman resorted to defending the tariffs by posting: “Sometimes the best strategy in a negotiation is convincing the other side you are crazy.”
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Notes:
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/03/economy/us-jobs-report-preview-march-doge-layoffs/index.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/business/media/newsmax-stock-ipo.html
https://apnews.com/live/donald-trump-news-updates-4-3-2025
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-today-stock-tariff-trump-4-3-25/
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/these-tariffs-wont-stand-make-political-electoral-hay-now
https://www.ft.com/content/2a6e388e-d4b6-4774-8c47-76dcb13e14b9
https://commonplace.org/2025/03/31/americas-three-demands/
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-manufacturing-confusion-00267945
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5350994/neh-grants-cut-humanities-doge-trump
https://www.wired.com/story/cdc-gutted-rif/
https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAOC/bulletins/3da109f
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/02/us/politics/trump-maine-funding-freeze-transgender-athletes.html
https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/track-measles-outbreak-cases-us-map-rcna198932
https://www.ketv.com/article/rising-pertussis-whooping-cough-cases-louisiana/64376803
https://teachingamericanhistory.org/document/speech-at-chicago-illinois/
Paul KrugmanWill Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?A quick thank you to my readers. When I struck out on my own, I wasn’t sure if anyone would follow. But I just passed 300K subscribers. I’ll try to be worthy of your support…Read morea day ago · 3828 likes · 696 comments · Paul Krugmanhttps://prospect.org/economy/2025-04-03-theyre-not-tariffs-theyre-sanctions/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-officials-object-european-push-buy-weapons-locally-2025-04-02/
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-officials-object-european-push-050404725.html
Editors, “Americans Will Pay the Price for Reckless Tariffs,” National Review, April 3, 2025.
The BulwarkThe American Age Is Over1. Canada…Read more15 hours ago · 2013 likes · 755 comments · Jonathan V. LastBluesky:
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April 2, 2025
April 2, 2025 (Wednesday)
Just five months ago, on October 19, 2024, The Economist ran a special report on America’s economy. That economy was, the magazine said, “the envy of the world.” Today, stock market futures plummeted after President Donald J. Trump announced that he will impose a 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, with higher rates on about 60 countries he claims engage in unfair trade practices, including China, Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea, as well as the European Union.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost more than 1,000 points upon the news, falling by 2.5%; the S&P 500 dropped 3.6%.
Trump’s erratic approach to the economy had already rattled markets, which dropped significantly in the first quarter of this year, and consumer confidence, which recently hit a twelve-year low. Trump waited until the stock market had closed today before he announced the new tariffs. Then, in a speech in the White House Rose Garden, he said: “For decades, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. But it is not going to happen anymore.” Instead, he said, tariffs would create “the golden age of America.”
“Never before has an hour of Presidential rhetoric cost so many people so much,” former treasury secretary Lawrence Summers posted. “The best estimate of the loss from tariff policy is now [close] to $30 trillion or $300,000 per family of four.” “The Trump Tariff Tax is the largest peacetime tax hike in U.S. history,” posted former vice president Mike Pence.
Trump claims he is imposing “reciprocal tariffs” and says they are about half of what other countries levy on U.S. goods. In fact, the numbers he is using for his claim that other countries are imposing high tariffs on U.S. goods are bonkers. Economist Paul Krugman points out that the European Union places tariffs of less than 3% on average on U.S. goods, while Trump maintained its tariffs are 39%.
Krugman said he had no idea where that number had come from, but financial journalist James Surowiecki figured out that the White House “just took our trade deficit with [each] country and divided it by the country’s exports to us.” He called it “extraordinary nonsense.” Washington Post economic writer Catherine Rampell posted that she was reluctant to amplify Surowiecki’s theory that the tariff rates were based on such a “dumb calculation,” but then the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative confirmed it.
Certain observers in business had apparently persuaded themselves that Trump didn’t really intend to raise tariffs very much and that his many vows to do so were simply rhetoric, since economists agree that tariffs are a tax on consumers and will raise inflation and slow down growth. Today’s tariffs are higher than expected, and business leaders are alarmed.
JPMorgan tonight said that they “view the full implementation of these policies as a substantial macro economic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts” and that “these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and global economy into recession this year.”
Economist Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations agreed. He told David J. Lynch and Jeff Stein of the Washington Post: “In the short run, the effect is probably a recession. It’s going to raise the price of so many goods that can’t be made in the United States…. In the long run, it’s a vision of the U.S. that is very isolated from the world.”
But not from every other country. While Trump imposed tariffs on Australia’s remote Heard and McDonald Islands, which are uninhabited except by wildlife like seals and penguins, it did not put tariffs on Russia. A different financial shift lifted sanctions against senior Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, to permit him to travel to Washington, D.C., today to meet with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff for what Alex Marquardt, Jennifer Hansler, and Alayna Treene of CNN refer to as “talks on strengthening relations between the two countries as they seek to end the war in Ukraine.”
Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) noted tonight that the tariffs make no economic sense because “[t]hey aren’t designed as economic policy. The tariffs are simply a new, super dangerous political tool.” Murphy suggests they are a way to make private industry dependent on the president the same way he has tried to make law firms and universities dependent on him. Industries and companies “will need to pledge loyalty to Trump in order to get sanctions relief.”
Murphy warns that “[t]he tariffs are DESIGNED to create economic hardship…[s]o that Trump has a straight face rationale for releasing them, business by business or industry by industry. As he adjusts or grants relief, it’s a win-win: the economy improves and dissent disappears.”
There is also Trump’s apparent fascination with President William McKinley, who held office from 1897 to 1901, at a time when high tariffs concentrated wealth in the hands of industrialists while workers and farmers, as well as their families, faced injury, hunger, and homelessness from dangerous working conditions, low wages and commodity prices, and seasonal factory closings.
Trump has frequently claimed those years were the nation’s wealthiest, and today he helped to explain his focus on that era when he referred to the 1913 Revenue Act, a law that has angered the right wing for decades. That act began the process of replacing the high tariffs of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries with an income tax, thus shifting the burden of funding the treasury from ordinary Americans through tariffs to wealthier Americans through the income tax. At least some of Trump’s tariff plans seem tied to his enthusiasm for tax cuts on wealthy individuals and corporations.
But in trying to reestablish the financial patterns of the late nineteenth century—patterns that led to profound economic instability in the U.S., including economic crashes—Trump is undermining the system of global trade that has fostered international cooperation since World War II. CNN global economic analyst Rana Foroohar told CNN’s John Vause: “This is Trump saying…I am going to overturn globalization as we’ve known it.” She added: “I’m hoping it doesn’t push the U.S. and the world into recession.”
Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo makes the important point that “Presidents have no inherent power over tariffs whatsoever.” The Constitution gives to Congress, not the president, the power to impose tariffs. But the International Emergency Economic Powers Act allows the president to impose tariffs if he declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, which Trump did today, declaring a “national emergency to increase our competitive edge, protect our sovereignty, and strengthen our national and economic security.”
That same law allows Congress to end such a declaration of emergency, but so far, Republicans have declined to do so. Today the Senate rebuked Trump by passing a resolution to block his tariffs on Canadian products, with four Republicans—Susan Collins (ME), Mitch McConnell (KY), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Rand Paul (KY)—joining Democrats to pass the resolution. House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is unlikely to take the measure up.
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Notes:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-liberation-day-trade/
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/02/nx-s1-5345802/trump-tariffs-liberation-day
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/02/stock-market-today-live-updates-trump-tariffs.html
Paul KrugmanTrump Goes Crazy on TradeJust a quick update after Trump’s Rose Garden speech…Read more16 hours ago · 2642 likes · 660 comments · Paul Krugmanhttps://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/02/us-tariffs-around-the-world-030348
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/04/02/business/trump-tariffs-liberation-day
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/01/politics/senior-russian-official-washington-visit/index.html
https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/two-thoughts-on-trumps-inferno-tariffs
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5229035-trump-tariffs-great-depression/
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/tariffs-trump-news-04-02-25#cm90wmufk00293b6nsm9aanla
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