Bob Mayer's Blog, page 45

Day 10: 2020 Pandemic. Extreme Scenarios, Good and Bad because Stuff Doesn’t Just Happen

I’m not a glass half full; glass half empty guy. I’m a “what’s in the damn glass?” person.

To understand my psyche, realize I’ve written a survival manual and also two books whose original titles were Shit Doesn’t Just Happen: The Gift of Failure. Because of Amazon rules, I amended Shit to Stuff, but it’s still Shit. The premise of those books is to examine seven great disasters in each one and show how it take seven things going wrong for a disaster to happen—I call them cascade events. And if people are involved, one of them, at least, if not all, involve human error.

There’s a lot
of information out there about projections for the virus. There are actually
people walking around who don’t even know there is a pandemic. Seriously.

Good case:
the virus mutates into something less deadly and peters out. Yeah. We wish.
Happy with that? As we say in da’ Bronx: fuggehdaboutit.

Bad: There
are two ways I’m looking at it: the virus and then the ripple effect on
society. While they are connected, they both have to be planned for.

Right now,
the focus is the virus. Prevention and treatment. Wash hands, social
distancing, lock down. We’ve already bungled it, with states leading the way in
what is an international problem, that at the very least requires a coordinated
federal response here in the States. We don’t have it. Please, if you feel this
is political move on and read someone else. I’m a realist. I’m not going to get
into the reasons for that but it’s what is going on; or rather not going on. This
is a big reason I’m leaning toward worst case.

Worst
casing I’ve seen for COVID-19 is 2.2 million dead in the US. That’s with 40 to
70% infection rate and a mortality rate of 2%. Pretty grim. We’re talking mass
graves; which is what is happening in Iran right now. Washington State has just
banned funerals.

Hospitals
are already getting overwhelmed. Our for-profit healthcare system is going to
get a lot of people killed because the most efficient hospitals are actually
the least prepared for this pandemic because they don’t keep “unnecessary” gear
and equipment on hand based on their operating margins. Gear like masks and
gloves; equipment like ventilators. We’ve got people stepping up and having sewing
groups that are making masks from surgical cloth. Seriously.

Which
brings me to the other aspect: the ripple effect on society. Almost a fifth of
the country just lost their jobs in one week. Let that sink in. Even before
this, 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with $400 for an unexpected
expense. More than half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. Mix those
things together and it stinks and is a powerkeg.

So far
people, overall, are being reasonable. Many communities don’t even feel much of
an effect, especially as we go more rural. There are many who think this is an
urban problem and those out in the country will be fine. Until someone gets
sick and they realize they don’t have a nearby hospital.

Just saw a
tweet that someone stole an 18-wheeler containing toilet paper. Seriously. That’s
just the beginning. During the 1918 Influenza outbreak, there were thieves
sneaking into hospitals and stealing from the sick. People haven’t changed. There
are also those sewing masks. People volunteering to deliver food to those who
can’t get about.

People are
re-watching the move Contagion. When I first saw that, I understood a
lot because, I’d written a pandemic thriller a while ago (every thriller writer
eventually wrote one): Z: Final Countdown. What I thought the movie got
seriously wrong wasn’t the science. It was social reaction. People were way too
fucking calm. They tried showing some of it, but in some areas things are going
to get very hairy, very soon. But there is a logic to it.

I know
everyone is focused on the here and now, but start thinking longer term. I’ll
be posting about that logic in the coming week with ideas on what can be done about
it.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide. Which I’ve managed to reload on Amazon and its in Kindle Unlimited.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (same as above, minus the preparation part in order to be smaller in print)

Once more, the NY Times has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19, Coronavirus. Click HERE to go to it.

I’m noticing a lot more small circles outside of cities. Remember, testing is still very scarce.

Day 9: 2020 Pandemic. California Lock-Down; Get Self-Sufficient

My son just forwarded me the California lockdown order; which is probably a week late, or early, depending on your perspective. It’s a huge pain but when lives are on the line, we can suffer a bit. Remember those in the front lines—and it’s not just doctors and nurses. There are people you don’t think of who will be keeping us alive such as people who handle packages and garbagemen/women. My dad worked over 30 years for the New York City Sanitation Department. The police could strike. Fire department could even strike. But garbage? Nope. Because that affects everyone. You might need the police or fire, but not likely. But garbage piling up is a huge health hazard.

Order what
you can online. At this point prepare worst case in place. I think that means
three months in lock down where you are right now.

I know stores
are rationing even though the supply chain is full right now (except, obviously
for emergency medical gear). Stores are basically behind on restocking because
of the rush. Rationing has a Catch-22. It ensures more people get essentials,
but it also means more trips. Hopefully that will get sorted out.

An important
thing you might have overlooked: hospitals and urgent care—the entire medical
infrastructure is going to be overwhelmed. If something goes wrong other
than COVID-19, are you prepared? Do you have a first aid kit? Do you have a
first aid manual? A bug out bag can be useful, even hunkering down in place.
Lots are sold out on Amazon but here’s what I found this morning, 20 March.
Some are backordered, but I’ve found that Amazon has been fulfilling backorders
faster than is listed. Also there a couple of apps I recommend.

In stock
the following first aid kits:

Surviveware Large First Aid Kit & Added Mini
Kit for Trucks, Car, Camping and Outdoor Preparedness



Lightning X First Responder EMT/EMS Backpack
Stocked First Aid Supplies Kit B



First Aid Kit – 170 Pieces Hard Case and
Lightweight – Includes 2 x Eyewash,Instant Cold Pack,Emergency Blanket for
Travel, Home, Office, Vehicle, Camping, Workplace & Outdoor (Red)



M2 BASICS 300 Piece (40 Unique Items) First Aid
Kit | Free First Aid Guide | Emergency Medical Supply | for Home, Office,
Outdoors, Car, Survival, Workplace



I also recommend having
some QuikClot bandages for bad cuts or scrapes. I’ve used them and they work
much better than regular bandages. I’ve got them in all my bug out bag, on my
bike and in my jeep.



Adventure Medical Kits Trauma Pak First Aid Kit
with QuikClot Sponge

Back ordered
bug out bags—contain useful supplies even in place:

Redfora Complete Earthquake Bag – Most Popular
Emergency kit for Earthquakes, Hurricanes, floods + Other disasters (1 Person,
3 Days)

Complete Earthquake Bag – Emergency kit for
Earthquakes, Hurricanes, floods + Other disasters



Emergency Zone 2 Person Family Prep 72 Hour
Survival Kit/Go-Bag | Perfect Way to Prepare Your Family | Be Ready for
Disasters Like Hurricanes, Earthquake, Wildfire, Floods | Now Includes Bonus
Item!

Both my
survival guides contain a first aid section.

THE GREEN BERET PREPARATION AND SURVIVAL GUIDE

THE GREEN BERET POCKET-SIZED SURVIVAL GUIDE

As far as
APPs go, the Red Cross has some and there are others you might want to
download.

I’ve got a free slideshow on that HERE. As you can see, I’ve got 28 slideshows on various aspects of survival.

Once more, the NY Times has dropped its paywall for information about COVID-19, Coronavirus. Click HERE to go to it.

Day 8: 2020 Pandemic. Better Late Then Never. Preparing. Some items to consider.

The less you have to go out, the better. Hopefully you’ve stocked up as much food and supplies as you can. Your freezer and fridge and cupboard are full. There are many other supplies we should have. I see people loading carts with toilet paper and cases of water and frankly, not a priority. Especially the water. I’m contradicting myself somewhat since the very first task in my preparation and survival guide is a minimum of two cases of water per person in the household as minimum as an emergency supply. Yes, you should have that. But right now, this is an emergency where the taps should still run. Water takes a little bit lower priority than food, which doesn’t come out of the tap.

I posted about what food supplies you should have, looking
long term. Try for at least a month’s worth. We’re on the upswing of infections
right now and the next month is critical.

Checking at Amazon most long term camping/survival food is sold out. But I spent an hour or so searching and found some items—even as I was finding them, some went on back-order. Others are limited in number.

Okay—my recommendation of a Mountain House bucket of meals
is sold out in various configurations on Amazon, but you can still get some if
you go for specific meal packets. This is the type of food we used to LRRPs in
Special Forces: Long Range Recon Patrol. They’re pretty filling and easy to
make; just add hot water. Even I can manage that. I spent some time searching
through, but this stuff is going fast. A couple of items that were in stock
last night are now backordered. Right now, the following are in stock in
limited quantities.

Spaghetti with meat sauce.
 

Chicken and Dumplings.

Breakfast Hash

Trail mix

The last item was called “gorp” and kind of invented it in 10th Special Forces many years ago when we started adding high calorie items like m&m to trail mix for Winter Warfare.

I’ll post more things I think you should have beyond food, even if they go on back-order. I also have all my checklists from my Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide on my web site for free download. HERE. This includes links and QR codes to every item. Also 28 free downloadable slideshares on various aspects of survival HERE.

Here is the map as of this morning, 19 March from NY Times. Which has no paywall for coronavirus information.

Day 7: 2020 Pandemic. Hunkering Down for the Long Haul. 10 Things To Know

At one time in Special Forces, my team was given the mission to parachute into a certain place and conduct covert surveillance on various targets for a minimum of thirty days. The Army, which has acronyms for everything called it SICTA: Strategic Intelligence Collection and Target Acquisition. The plan was to build a ‘hide site’ for two men for each locale and they would do the job.

Sounds simple, right? It is until you try to do it. What we’re
all facing now is a version of that. In some ways easier: hopefully you won’t
have to be in a hole in the ground. But it’s probably going to last longer than
30 days. So what do you need to know?

1. Don’t wait to be told what to do. You have access to lots
of information on the internet. Sort through the sources. Reliable sources have
been beating the drum for weeks on isolating, washing hands, getting food for
the long term. Pay attention. Do the hard right thing.

2. Act like YOU have the virus and don’t want to give it to
others. That’s being empathetic. Which leads us to . . .

3. There are people out there who are mean and don’t give a
rat’s ass about anyone else. Hopefully, while isolated, you won’t run into
them. But beware. As this drags on we’re going to see a lot of meanness bubble
up.

4. People will react differently. An island off the coast of
Maine and the Outer Banks of North Carolina have already closed themselves off
from outsiders. We’ll see more and more of that. Small towns will blockade
themselves. It’s probably too late, as the virus is most likely already there,
but fear makes people do things that were unthinkable just a week ago. Just
think about a month from now as the infected and death toll rise?

5. Develop new habits. We’ve limited our house to one door in
and out; I open the door with my elbow. Inside the door is sanitizer. I use
that on my hands. Then go to the kitchen sink and wash my hands. I let the mail
accumulate for a few days, then put it in the garage for at least three days
before opening. Toss the envelopes in the trash out there. Disinfect, then
bring what’s important in. Packages—the same. They go in the garage for three
days before being opened.

6. Do something physical. You can find workouts on-line that
you do in your one-room apartment. You can go out for walks (law permitting) or
bike rides as long as you keep your distance from others. I take Scout to the
woods every other day to walk. It’s very rare we even see another person. However,
don’t go to the playground or the dog park where there will be other people
possibly clustered. Physical activity is an anti-depressant and we’re all going
to be depressed. For our hide site we learned a series of isometric exercises
because we could even get out of the hole for 30 days. Hopefully you’re not in
a hole.

7. Ration your food and figure out how many days worth you
have. I discussed in my previous post what kind of food you need. Yeah, your
diet might get kind of blah, but blah is better than sick. If and when you have
to go to the store, follow the procedure I outlined in my previous post. You’ll
be amazed how little you need to touch if you know what you need and focus.

8. Adapt to new rules and laws; don’t fight them, regardless if you think they make sense or not. Small example: Amazon unpublished the kindle version of The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide last night. Why? Most likely because I added the word Coronavirus to the product description and keywords and Amazon is purging all the plagiarized hack jobs being uploaded to get people’s money and I got caught up in it. It is what it is. As before, if you find the cost prohibitive, email me at bob@bobmayer.com and I’ll send you a pdf version.

9. Which leads me back to mean people. There are scammers out there taking advantage of this. Beware. While nice people will offer to help, bad people will too, in order to take advantage. Be really leery of offers from strangers. The person who wants your credit card to do your shopping for you, for example. The person pretending to work for the government who wants your information. Beware disinformation being propagated on social media. There are active organizations out there spreading lies and rumors. There are also stupid people.

10. Don’t look too far ahead. Forget about the stock market and your 401k/IRA. Forget about what the job market will be. I’m a writer of fiction and I’ve rewritten the entire history of mankind in my Area 51 series and then projected forward after an alien invasion and I’ve got no clue what things are going to be like in a year but one thing for certain: they will be different. For worse, but also for better. The most important thing you can do for yourself and those you love is make sure you’re around to experience things in a year.

And, like Spinal Tap, we turn it to 11: Take it one day at a time. Just get through today.

I’ve been checking to see what’s in stock on Amazon. Lots of survival gear has been sold out. Here are some ER Bars still for sale. I actually have some of these in my GnG bag.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide is still available in print.

The Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide (the same as above minus the prep portion) is available in print and Kindle Unlimited.

Day 6: 2020 Pandemic. Extremes either way? Priorities. What FOOD to get. What isn’t.

There are those who are still blowing SARS-CoV-2 off, comparing it to the flu or, because of the coronavirus label, to the strains of coronavirus that are colds. The only reason it’s called a coronavirus, which is a type, is because it has spikes on the virus. Beyond that it’s NOT the cold or comparable to the flu. This is ten times deadlier to the flu. Those who quote the seasonal death numbers for the flu being so much higher fail to understand the majority of us will be exposed to SARS-CoV-2 this year and NO ONE is vaccinated. Okay?

Then there are those who are over-reacting the wrong way. After biking yesterday, I drove to the parking lot of a local grocery store to see what people were doing. LOTS of people seem to have a sudden need for toilet paper. You can’t eat toilet paper, folks. Well, okay, Scout can. She’s slowly breaking her habit of snatching the roll off the holder in the master bedroom bath which is just like this hook thing and eating it. Actually, she likes chewing it; nice and soft.

Not saying you don’t need it, but in the priority of things? I saw someone talk about bidets and how if you fell face forward into shit, you wouldn’t wipe it off with some paper. I can’t count the variety of things I’ve used while in the field, including squatting in what must have been poisonous and that turned out not fun. But that’s an intriguing story for another day. I know– you can’t wait.

The other thing was bottled water. I am a big fan of having several cases of water for emergencies in the household. At least two per person. In fact, in The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide, it’s the first task on the first page for people to do. #1 priority. But NOT in this particular emergency. If your taps go dry, well, that’s a post in a week or so when I talk about extreme scenarios, which I don’t want to do right now because I’m trying to be positive. My wife says I’m negative and a contrarian and I always disagree with her.

I think people don’t know what to get and are acting off of
what they’ve heard.

What should be your priority? Food. Medicines. Think ahead for at least two weeks if not more. The fewer times you have to leave the house, the better. Food for Survival. Sadly, many of what I suggest in this slideshow are out of stock right now, but order anyway for the first to come in. Here are some quick things to stock that should be in the store: dry goods such as pasta, rice, beans, and oats. Canned goods. Lots of soups. Canned vegetables. Pack your freezer as full as possible. If you have a blender now might be the time to consider making fruit shakes; you can freeze those too. Don’t forget things you might be used to getting every week such as coffee and tea. Staples such as sugar and salt and other seasonings. I’m a big fan of power bars and Gatorade. Probably not what a nutritionist will tell you, but it will keep you going.

When you do leave home, have a plan. I had to pick up meds at the pharmacy the other day and from the time I went in to coming back out, the only think I touched was one knuckle to the credit card reader (yeah I don’t know how to do that tap thing, I’m old, okay). I don’t carry my wallet any more. I carry one credit card and my drivers license. I took the meds, went back to the Jeep (opening the door with my elbow) and then disinfected both hands thoroughly and used sanitizing wipes on both license, credit card, package for the meds, bottle for the meds, and for good measures anything else I’d touched driving there.  When I got home, I go right to the sink and wash my hands. I also stack the mail in the garage for several days before opening. We canceled our home delivery of the Times several weeks ago.

The positive I saw while biking was lots of families out walking or biking on the greenway. We do have a great system of trail here in Knoxville. People playing in the park while keeping separate groups. Another thing I changed was I don’t let Gus or Scout off the leash in the park any more because they would interact with other dogs which would lead to human interaction.

This is going to be both a positive and a negative time for families. They can do a lot together but can also get stir crazy and on each other’s nerves. After several days with the grandkids in my son’s apartment in San Diego, I fear for his sanity.

Cool Gus says let’s all be nice to each other, like he and
Tigger.

Day 5: 2020 Pandemic. Getting Real; Busting Myths and Getting Smart. Coronavirus map as of this morning.

Lots of closures, some optional, many mandatory. Without clear Federal oversight, states and local governments are doing what they can.

I drove to the woods yesterday for my hike with Scout and
noticed a lot less traffic than normal. However, Univ of TN is on Spring Break,
so that accounts for some of it. I don’t anticipate seeing the students back
until maybe the summer, but realistically the fall.

We still have a percentage of the population who think this is some kind of hoax or not very serious. I still see people saying the “flu kills more people” thing. So here is the page with my free slideshow on myth busting; along with a bunch of other survival information you’ll find useful. Putting it succinctly: we are in a shitstorm.

The map is courtesy of the NY Times, which has dropped its paywall for coronavirus news, so go to the source. This is reported (which is far less than what’s really happening– note the big blank for West Virginia, because they haven’t reported anyone even tested! As of 16 March. This morning!

I’m updating my free preparation and survival slideshows as fast as I can. One problem is some of the things I recommend in terms of supplies and gear from Amazon are already sold out, so I’ve been searching for equivalents and substituting.

I’m of two minds now. One is hopeful that we will pull
together and make it through. I see positive glimmers. There are many great
people out there. Dedicated professionals who will sacrifice everything,
including their lives.

We’re facing a disastrous trifecta: a pandemic, an economic
meltdown and incompetent leadership. I’d feel a lot better if it was just 2 of
3.

My not so hopeful side fears the combination of those events will lead to fracturing. Already, I see profiteering; sadly from the very top. There are those who see this pandemic as an opportunity to make money. We already have for-profit healthcare, which is going to really hurt us in the next few months. We have for-profit war, which has kept us in unwinnable conflicts longer than ever before. Now it seems there are those who see for profit pandemic. Not sustainable. Criminal in the worst sense of the word. Murderers.

Anyway. My not so hopeful side is also the side that flourished in Special Forces. It also tends to be realistic. We are not prepared for a pandemic at every level. What preparation we had at the federal level was dismantled by the current administration. Please—this is not political or partisan. This is reality. We need to accept it and get smart. Right now that means ISOLATE. If you absolutely have to go out, do it smartly. For example, if you have to get gas, use a paper towel when using the pump, then disinfect your hands. That sounds simple, but it’s a quick way this virus can spread to hundreds of people. Expand that concept to everything. Touch everything as little as possible. Use your knuckles, not your finger tips. Disinfect. Wash hands. Wash hands. Don’t touch your face. Keep your distance from people. Cough into your elbow, not your hand. Then you have to wash your clothes. And your hands.

Beyond that, I’ll post more on where things could go as we get further in. But I’m already prepared for that, now getting a bit more organized. But at the very least, try to be prepared to live isolated in your home for a month. Water will not be a problem for all those I see loading up with cases of water—this is one of the few disasters where it’s not a priority. Your taps should still work. If they stop—well, I’ll cover that in a future post. Go for canned soups, pasta, beans, rice, cereal, etcetera. Fill your freezer. It might be bland, but its food. Don’t forget your pets. Get enough dog for that time period.

Use click and pick up for the supermarket, which is what most of them should go to as the only way to shop soon. If you have neighbors, particularly older isolated people, call them on the phone and order for them and then pick up. Leave the food outside their door. This ability to do things remotely can be one part of the glimmer that saves us.

Be safe, people!

More to come.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide

Day 4: 2020 Pandemic. A Sense of Disbelief. Symptoms. Testing so far by state and percent positive.

We “know” SARS-CoV-2 is well beyond containment. Schools are being closed, athletic events canceled, etc. In larger cities, more and more activities are being shuttered. There’s a ripple effect across the country. Here in Knoxville, I’m not getting much of a sense of panic. A low level of anxiety, perhaps. But life seems to be going on as usual.

I say “we know” but actually we don’t. I’m getting emails from people telling me not to spread panic and also to stop talking about the president or saying he’s lying.

Perhaps we’ve all seen too many movies and watched too many TV shows to grasp the full measure of the reality. We believe that the hero will swoop in with a cure at the last minute. All will be good. I write fiction and in my pandemic novel (every thriller writer ends up doing one), I have a form of that “happy” ending: Z-Final Countdown. Unfortunately, reality will be grimmer. Strangely, I used to not understand the importance of “happy endings”. My first published novel Eyes of the Hammer came out roughly the same time as Tom Clancy’s Clear and Present Danger (much better title) with roughly the same plot: special operations interdicting drug trafficking in Colombia. At the end of his book we “win” in the war on drugs. At the end of my book, my hero sees a drug deal going down in the Bronx. That gives you an idea where I come from. You’re not paranoid if they really are out to get you. And this thing is out there.

On a national level, the response is being bungled without firm leadership or guidance. We should be seeing field hospitals being set up by the military. Units mobilized. Hospitals prepared to be inundated with patients. I know at the lower levels there are people working long hours to prepare, but I don’t get a sense of urgency from the higher levels.

We need a complete lock down for two weeks to keep this from spreading exponentially. It’s not happening. That’s not partisan or political. It’s reality. The virus doesn’t care about political parties.

This morning there are images of how bungled the response is with seven hour long lines at airports for people coming into the country. Where people are packed together waiting. Which is silly because it’s already HERE. That’s not to say we shouldn’t be screening but its too little too late and being done wrong.

This is where we stand this morning. Remember, those tested right now, because we have so few tests, are people showing symptoms. Washington State is well ahead in number tested because of the nursing home cluster.

We’re so divided that people are arguing politics instead of reality. SARS-CoV-2 isn’t going to care.`It’s a terrible shame that our commander-in-chief is publicly violating all safety protocols being espoused by this who know.

But we can ‘flatten the curve’ if we are smart this coming week. If we look at what happened in China and in other countries, we know it’s all across the country already. Many who have it are asymptomatic. This is the week where, if we isolate, practice good techniques, we can keep the curve from exploding.

You have to assume it’s in your town, your neighborhood.

On a personal level, because of my Aspergers, isolating isn’t that hard. Ask my wife. My job has been one of isolation for decades. Right now I’m working on a new book and editing the next one coming out in April. I’m more focused on long term consequences. I think about all those in the gig economy or who work in industries being decimated, especially in terms of travel, tourism, or hospitality such as restaurants.

The biggest thing from watching the news and social media is the vast majority of people are not taking this seriously. People are still traveling, going out to eat, getting together. The next two weeks are the critical ones: where we either get it linear or exponential. I fear it will be exponential.

The symptom image is from my blog on 9 March, before I started the 2020 Pandemic. But the key to remember is this: there are hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people walking around.

The best piece of advice I’ve heard this morning is this:

I’ve also read that people are uploading all sorts of coronavirus survival books that are essentially plagiarized reports, cut and pasted. The #1 book in survival since this started has been a book on how to make your own hand sanitizer, which is weird because getting the materials might be as hard as getting sanitizer; although you might have them on hand and it doesn’t take a book to figure it out. I added an appendix to my pre-existing survival guide where there was already a section on pandemics, because one has always been inevitable.

Two weeks, folks. We can do it!

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide

Day 3: 2020 Pandemic. Why it’s key for the most vulnerable to isolate during . .

these next six weeks or so, even though it is likely almost all of us will eventually be exposed to the virus (ie it’s not going away)? Because there is going to be a peak period soon when hospitals will be overwhelmed, we won’t have enough respirators, and doctors will start triaging. You don’t want to be caught in that wave if you are among those for whom this is most dangerous: older, preexisting illnesses and conditions.

If you are going to get sick, it’s better after the peak, when there are facilities and personnel available and, importantly, medical personnel are experienced in how to deal with this. Better late than now, is the saying, I guess.

I was thinking about all that yesterday when walking with Scout in the forest. We live in a system that is highly connected. But with that high degree of connection comes a fragility that is going to be tested in the coming months. We have to live up to it.

The NY Times and other publications have dropped their paywall for information about the pandemic.

As of today, 14 March 2020, here is where we stand:

Please understand that the numbers are skewed because the United State is WAY BEHIND in testing.

I went to the food store this morning, more to see what the status of things was after last night’s events.

Certain areas were pretty picked over. No ramen; people having flashbacks to college perhaps. Lots of soups gone. Certain other items.

People were being extra-friendly, which was interesting. I’ll talk more about this in a couple of days, but there is a curve on that we might go through that won’t be pretty, but right now, everyone is nervous, but sort of okay.

The most interesting part was that only one checkout line was open. Yet there were a lot of people working restacking shelves. Since it wasn’t that crowded this morning, I’m assuming they got swamped last night. But standing near the manager’s desk, she was on the phone and in less than two minutes called five different people asking if they could come in to work. That’s a dark cloud on the horizon.

What really surprised me was people were still waiting in line in their cars at Starbucks and Chik-Fil-A. I don’t want to be a downer, but really? I feel bad for the gig workers. Many have no health insurance (I estimate my wife and I have spent over a half million dollars in health insurance over the past several decades and as deductibles keep going up, getting less and less back– we got zero paid the last two years). Lots of people losing their jobs for an uncertain future.

On a shit does happen note, I got back this morning to see lots of smoke behind our house. A neighbor’s house behind and to the side was in the process of having the fire department put out a pretty serious fire. The couple were taken by ambulance already to the hospital. You could tell the first had started at the fireplace and gutted a third of the house. So the thing is, while we are focused on one thing, we can miss other potentially dangerous things. Keep your head clear. Take deep breaths. Focus on your surroundings.

I tend to be snarky and was going to be that in this blog, but I think it’s already too late for that. Yes, we need a sense of humor, but many people are already hurting. A big key is to be positive. It might seem extreme but I just posted an update to the acronym SURVIVAL on my free slideshow page– if you understand what each letter stands for you can apply it to this brewing storm.

To the right are some of the free slideshows on the page– there are more. Feel free to peruse; they are linked via Slideshare, a vetted web site, so you can also download them if need be.

Remember– no hugs or handshakes. We use:

Day 2: 2020 Pandemic. The Saddest Thing I Heard Today and a Free Survival Guide.

A woman said they were going to the store and someone yelled to them from a car. She went over and there was an older couple sitting inside. The eldrly woman cracked the window. It was obvious she was in great distress and had been crying. She said that they were afraid to go in the store because of the virus.

I can’t blame the couple. SARS-CoV-2 is particularly nasty for older people or those with underlying conditions, particularly with the lungs. I wasn’t particularly worried until my wife reminded me that I have aspergillosis in my lungs from one of many deployments to the dark corners of the world. She can hear it when we’re watching a comedy and I laugh deeply, then start to cough.

Because of the fear and uncertainty, my Green Beret Pocket-Sized Survival Guide is free today and tomorrow on Kindle. If you don’t use Kindle and want a pdf version, email me at bob@bobmayer.com I’ll send you one. It doesn’t have the preparation portion of the larger book, The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide, but it has the survival part and the same Appendix I’ve added about the Coronavirus.

Think of not only older couples, but the elderly who live by themselves. Going to the store could literally be a decision of life and death.

Those who tout low numbers or state that more people have died from the flu are seriously misguided. Yesterday I did the numbers on the low end and they were grim.

We’re prepared here to hunker down here for a couple of months. I’m fortunate in that I’ve worked from home for many years. Also, I’ve prepared reasonably well, given I’ve been trained and taught survival, and written a book about it. But for many people, the current situation is confusing. We have some media outlets spewing propaganda instead of news. I’m stunned at the partisanship that is still being displayed. The reality is many of these politicians, who’ve been denying science, like climate change, for years, are in for a rude awakening.

On 9 January 2020, the Washington Post ran this small article. It was one of the first notices of what has happened.

That’s only slightly more than two months ago. The Chinese, of course, were aware they had a problem well before that. Think of how quickly we’ve gone from that brief mention to now in two months? Think where we’ll be in two months.

Check on the elderly, whether family, neighbors or even known on someone’s door and see how they’re doing. This is when you have to come out of the hunkering down and help. There are plenty of ways to help while maintaining “social distancing”. Anytime I leave the house I essentially disinfect myself and my jeep. Then when I come in the house, I disinfect again.

A positive that makes me feel good about the above chart is that is the extraordinarily low fatality rate for children. I’m happy for my two grandsons. This is unlike the 1918 Spanish Flu which was particularly nasty to the young and in shape.

It’s only Day 2, but we are either going to reveal the better angels of our nature or our demons. I’m hoping for the better angels.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide

Day 1: 2020 Pandemic

CDC is reporting 1,215 cases of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19/Coronavirus. Pick your name. The first is the technical one. The latter is what everyone is calling it, but its misleading because there are at least four other coronaviruses, that are rather different. Regardless.

Deaths: 36

Does it seem silly to chronicle this? Perhaps. But things will get forgotten as time goes on. I think two months from now we will look back on the way we’re acting now and wonder: how stupid and naive were we?

First, the numbers: Ridiculous. We’ve barely tested a percentage of population. The president keeps lying about testing. They turned down WHO’s offer of tests almost two months ago and no one knows why, but my suspicion is the president simply wanted to keep the numbers down. Just the other day he publicly admitted he didn’t want to let people off a cruise ship because they’d double the numbers.

We’re at the very beginning of this while it seems China is coming to the end. So we’re looking at a two month, if not more, worsening.

I told my wife that while the virus is definitely a threat, I’m equally worried about the ripple effect in society. Most people are very unaware how tenuous our supply lines are. I remember watching Contagion years ago and my impression was it was well done, except it under-estimated the societal fragmenting and disintegration that would occur.

I hope we don’t see it, but I fear we will.

Two weeks ago, Italy had 322 confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2. Now they have 10,149. Doctors are triaging treatment.

Here’s the dark storm on the horizon based on the numbers I’ve seen from reputable sources: 40-70% of people will be exposed to the virus. It has at least a 1% mortality rate if not higher. Let’s go with the low end of both numbers.

As of the 2010 census there are 308,745,538 Americans. It’s higher now but let’s use that.

308,745,538 time the low end of exposure, 40%, time 1%, equals: 1,234,982 fatalities.

I think that’s enough sobering possibilities for today. Talk to ya tomorrow.

The Green Beret Preparation and Survival Guide

BTW: Stuff Doesn’t Just Happen: The Gift of Failure is free today. Perhaps some day, someone analyze this pandemic