Rishad Tobaccowala's Blog, page 26

Growth and Change are about People.

1. Organizations grow and change only when people grow and change.

Photo by Richard Thompson III

Organizations everywhere are struggling with change and seeking new ways to grow.

Many specialists help them on the way forward.

A cavalcade of consultants convey and communicate with countless charts potential choices to the C-Suite.

A flurry of futurists frame, focus, and filter the way forward with the finesse of fortune tellers.

Masters of the Universe market M&A moves that might make multiples move upwards and mean many more millions in market-cap.

PR professionals produce and promote points of view that provoke the press to perceive with pristine perspectives.

And while many of these will be essential ingredients to a recipe of change and growth none of these will work without helping grow and change the people in the organization.

Because while firms are a collection of ideas, technologies, patents, brands, ecosystems and people, it is people who are the the key since they create the ideas, technologies, patents, brands and eco-systems!

Michael Tyson said, “Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”.

Boards and leadership of firms come quickly to the realization that everything is easy until people get in the way.

Telling people that change is good, threatening them with job loss if they do not change or creating communication materials and slogans to goad them into a cult like devotion to the new dear leader or the way forward rarely works in the short run and will likely fail after the threat of flagellation fades.

Because if there is nothing in it for them, people will out-wit, out-wait, out-pretend, and out-maneuver “management”. Until then they will fill the time genuflecting and bowing and going through the monitored motions of attending the right meetings, muttering the motivational mantras and stating the slogans required.

If you want your organization or team to grow and change you will need to deliver answers to four questions to your staff:

Why are the recommended changes good for them?

How can it help them grow ?

What are the monetary or other incentives to change?

When and where will training w be provided to help them learn the new skills needed?

Change does not happen because of M&A, Press Releases, Re-organizations or a new Leader, all of which undoubtedly play a role.

An organization changes and grows when the people in the organization change and grow.

2. There are two ways to change an organization: Get people to change or change the people.

Photo by Richard Thompson III

What are the key ingredients that helped drive successful transformation of companies including very large ones like Walmart or Microsoft?

Both firms had “lifers” take over as the CEO after years of each company roaming in the wilderness. They both succeeded in rejuvenating their firms by combining two different approaches.

A) Upgrading the mindset of a majority of the people at the firm.

This is best seen by the changes Satya Nadella has made at Microsoft which including moving from a “know it all mindset” to a “growth mindset”, a focus on enterprise and business professionals, a focus on openness and cloud (into which the Xbox strategy neatly fits) and the elimination of the Windows Operating division. He also engineered a move away from a prickly approach of a “We vs the World” mindset to the embrace of the everything in the world including Linux with the purchase of GitHub.

Along with these initiatives to upgrade the people there was the leveraging of new talent brought in via “LinkedIn” and some nip and tucking in other key areas.

Through it all the focus has been on new behaviors and mindsets of people including top level and key talent.

B) A recruitment of key outsiders and high-level leaders to bring in new skills and thinking.

This can be seen at Walmart which had fallen behind Amazon in the world of E-Commerce. Doug McMillon made two huge purchases in Jet and FlipKart, putting their leadership in charge of the re-vitalization of their online efforts. While there continues to be “silo-wars” at Walmart there is little doubt that the company is a newly armed and respected player and is seen as a future force and not just a huge operator from the past.

What is central to all successful changes is that companies that grow combine revitalized/new leadership, a re-defined strategy and or organization with an emphasis on growing and helping as many employees as possible transform themselves.

A new strategy, a new leader and a new organization are often necessary, but they are never sufficient to regain growth and manage change. To achieve this aim it is critical that the rank and file needs to be communicated with, incentivized and trained to change and grow.

3. The Six C’s Required of Modern Talent. [image error]

Photo by Richard Thompson III

Today like never before we are living in a world of rapid transformation and change.

New industries rise and fall and the inter-connected unstoppable forces of globalization, demographic change and technology twist and toss all of us.

In this landscape how do we train talent or hone our own skills?

What will remain relevant and in demand in an age of shorter and shorter half-lives of firms and business models?

Six key skills will be essential in the future. Three of these have to do with the individual (Cognition, Creativity, Curiosity) and three how we connect with each other and the world outside our minds (Collaborate, Communicate, Convince).

Cognition is simply learning to think and keeping your mental operating system constantly upgraded. This requires deliberate practice and sustained work. Improved cognition is achievable.

Creativity is connecting dots in new ways, looking beyond the obvious and this skill will be key as AI powered computers, data crunch and co-relate faster than we ever will. To be human is to be creative. We need to learn and feed this inside us.

Curiosity is simply being alive to possibilities, questioning the status quo and asking what if? Today the key competitor or opportunity in any category comes from outside it. Curiosity may have killed the cat, but the lack of curiosity killed the careers of many people.

But being cognitively gifted, creative and curios will not be enough since we are living in a connected world where eco-systems, teams and linkages is how ideas are born, value created, and long-term careers forged. For these we need to hone and build and train for three other skills.

Collaborate: Collaboration is key to work in a world where API’s (Application Protocol Interfaces) are not just about handshakes between software/hardware but between individuals with different skills, teams in different countries, partners, suppliers and much more.

Communicate: Learn to write. Learn to speak. Learn to present. It may be so old school but watch the people who succeed, and they are good at communication. And all of these can be taught and learned.

Convince: Every one of us is a salesperson regardless of what we believe our title is. This is true even if we do not sell anything at work. We have to convince colleagues of our points of view. We have to convince our partners to join us on our life journey. Learn to convince and learn to sell.

4. The Four Keys to Evaluating Experienced Hires Before Letting Them In.

Photo by Richard Thompson III

It is rare that a company can avoid hiring significant talent from outside if it is serious about transforming itself to change and grow. New skills, new mindsets and new blood enhances the corporate genetic pool.

But these hires are particularly fraught, and experience indicates that focusing on four key criteria can minimize the risk.

These are a) Mental Agility, b) Integrity, c) Impact and d) Fit/Chemistry.

Two of these filters Mental Agility and Fit/Chemistry require multiple interviews (Zoom or in person) and two of them —Impact and Integrity —require deep investigation (background checks, references).

Mental agility is key to lead a team or a company in a world of change and only in an interview can one test for this. Similarly, chemistry matters. Too many companies bring in a wunderkind who either fails to adapt or is chewed up and spit out by the organization. While “Culture” may eat strategy for breakfast it honed its chewing skills by gnawing on the bones of outside talent.

Integrity and the Impact needs to be evaluated over time and requires in depth research.

Integrity has never been more important and in today’s correctly sensitized environment this is not just about financial trust but dealings with people of different backgrounds among other things.

Impact on Business can be measured through financial results but as important is how the individual has built teams, grown people and dealt with long term periods of stress or setback.

Ex-bosses and ex-direct reports rather than colleagues and industry experts are usually the ideal people to interrogate since they can provide perspective, put things into context and provide a multi-faceted picture of the person.

5. How to change and grow yourself.

Photo by Richard Thompson III

In the end we will only change and grow, if we ourselves want to change and grow.

There will be many reasons from lack of time, to looming retirement, to the pain of the new that we will transform into more elegant sounding excuses. But change will come, and change will not care. And if we want to stay successful and retain our jobs and remain relevant, we will have to change.

Three ways to change

a) Invest an hour a day learning: Just as we know daily physical exercise will extend our lives so too will daily mental growth extend our career, relevance (and can provide joy)

b) Grow yourself by developing a new skill or upgrading a skill every few months: It might be a passion like photography or mountain climbing, learning a new language or building competency in one of many areas. Doing and deliberate practice will result in your mind being re-wired in new ways.

c) Build a case for the opposite of what you believe is true: It is critical to look for dis-confirming versus confirming evidence. Today, due to polarized media and a retreat into like-minded groups we often suffer from incestuous thinking. This means we will miss

Change might suck

But irrelevance is worse.

And if we want to grow, we will have to change…

A River of Change

Photograph: Nickel Tailings #34 Sudbury Ontario, 1996 by Edward Burtynsky

A river of change is burning through time, forging new landscapes as we enter 2021.

This river finds its source in multiple headwaters and is powered by the gush of many tributaries.

Photograph: Shipyard #5, Qili Port, Zhejiang Province, China 2005 by Edward Burtnysky.

1. A New Asian Influenced Globalization

Globalization will continue to thrive despite the hand wringing of Western institutions and periodicals. However, it will no longer be a unipolar form of Globalization driven by the West, but a multi-polar mix significantly impacted by Asia, primarily China and India, who between them account for a third of global population and possibly half of future growth.

By the end of 2018 only 2 of the busiest container shipping ports in the world were in the West (Rotterdam in the Netherlands at Number 12 and Los Angles at Number 18).

At current fertility rates Africa’s population will increase from 1.2 billion to 2 billion in 2050 and 4 billion in 2100 becoming home to almost half of the world’s population.

Just as Earth is not the center of the Universe, the West is not the center of globalization that the world revolves around.

Photograph: Nickel Tailings #31 Sudbury Ontario, 1996 by Edward Burtynsky

2. The “ Three Divides” of Race/Geography/Age

Most nations are going to grapple with the adjustments of “Three Divides”:

a) The Divide of Race/Ethnicity, b) The Divide of Urban and Rural and most significantly c) The Divide of Generations

These “Divides” in the US were most recently seen in the United States during the presidential election. Look carefully and it was not “Red State” or “Blue State” but rather Urban/Rural, Caucasian/Non-Caucasian and Young/Old.

The most significant and not as well understood of these divides is the worldview differences between those younger than 30 and those older than 55. These differences are replicated in almost every nation as new generations brought up with mobile and social Internet, a lack of assets and lower expectations plus a dramatic difference in values and goals from climate change to capitalism come to express themselves and enter the workplace and politics. In the US this generation will in the next 10 years inherit 30 trillion or 30% of all US Wealth( most of it going to a fifth of them) and this will add fuel to their burning belief of the need to change.

From financial products ( Lemonade, Robin Hood, Square, Bitcoin) to fashion (Virgil Abloh, Kylie Jenner) to media usage (Twitch, TikTok), a new language and infrastructure is being forged which will be turbo-charged like never before due to the disproportionate and long term impact of Covid-19 on these younger generations. (Not since the Great Depression have so many young adults lived with their parents. In July, 52% of young adults ages 18 to 29 years old resided with one or both of their parents, surpassing the previous peak in 1940, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of Census Bureau data. )

Their voices do not ring today in boardrooms or councils of power (almost all of whom are much older) but make no mistake the drumbeats of their reality will soon throb in the bloodstream of every business and political discussion.

But in the US, it is not just the young but the older to whom not enough attention is being paid.

Every day 10,000 people turn 65 years old and due to modern medicine will live active lives for 15 to 25 years. A segment of them control most of the wealth in the US while a larger group has no significant assets to retire on. Ageism, Medical Rationing, and many more issues will likely create some intriguing inter-generational dynamics.

These divides occur in every nation. Watch Japan as its population declines by over 25% in the next 30 years unless they allow Immigration or Fertility rates change, or China grappling with the aging population due to the one Child Policy, or countries like India and Egypt grapple to find jobs for their youth.

Photograph: Nickel Tailings #30 Sudbury Ontario, 1996 by Edward Burtynsky

3. The Expansion of an Algorithmic and Automated Society Driven by the Third Connected Age

In 1993/1994 we entered the First Connected Age where we were connected to information via what would eventually be Search (Google/Baidu) and connected to transaction via what would grow to become E-Commerce (Amazon/Alibaba).

Around 2007/2008 we entered the Second Connected Age where due to smart phones (Apple/Samsung) we were connected all the time and due to Social Media (Facebook/We Chat) we were connected to everybody.

These first two “Connected Ages” have impacted everything from Elections to a re-ranking of the Fortune 500. It has created great wealth and benefits to people and also brought about the destruction of many livelihood and the middle-class jobs. It has enabled Uber, AirBnb, Dollar Shave Club.Remember when Facebook paid just 1.5 billion dollars for Instagram with its handful of employees ? That was worth more than the Eastman Kodak market cap on that day when the Kodak had tens of thousands of Employees. Kodak is now worth half a billion while Instagram is probably the most valuable part of the 800 billion market capitalization of Facebook ( A 1.5 billion dollar acquisition now worth probably 200 times what he paid less than a decade ago.The single biggest genius move of Zuckerberg.)

But we have not seen anything yet as we enter the Third Connected Age where we will enjoy four new types of connections as data connects to data and writes software (AI), and all our devices are connected to Supercomputers (Cloud), with much faster connections ( 5G) and new interfaces to connect (Voice/AR/VR).

The age we are going to enter will be both magical in what will become available to us as individuals (AI capability is supposedly doubling every 6 months vs the old Moore’s law of 18 months) but challenging on a Society level (anything a machine can do it will do and more and more things will be done by machines)

While it is some years from Self-Driving cars imagine the impact on everything from the dramatic decline in the need for Insurance Actuaries and Body shops (fewer to no accidents) and removal of the largest job creator (drivers of every type). Many drivers are not necessarily going to magically become coders or afford to live on or be interested in Nursing or Massage Therapy.

Some suggest Universal Basic Income. But will it work? And even if it does what about the meaning, purpose and camaraderie of work?

And with more powerful algorithms which will make today’s sinister newsfeed look childish fueled with the power of facial recognition, will we be entering a utopian or dystopian society or more likely a combination?

These and many issues are going to have to be dealt with. Every leader will need to grapple with these issues. The future is closer than one thinks, and the technology is so distributed across the world and seen as a key to the future by China and and other nations it cannot be slowed down.

Photograph: Shipbreaking #9A, Chittagong, Bangladesh by Edward Burtynsky

4. In the US a Reckoning for Three Key Industries Escalates Dramatically in 2021

The first significant scaled disruption of the three industries (Education, Finance and Healthcare) that account for over a third of US GDP. This is due to a perfect storm of new behaviors and expectations ( post Covid Experience Mindsets) combined with the rise of Third Connected Age Technologies ( AI, 5G, Cloud and Voice/AR/VR.)

These three massive industries suck in significant capital and assets and are so friction filled and rent seeking that post Covid they will be wracked, with some companies wrecked by change.

Education with 7% of GDP whose inner emptiness has been seen by parents and students in real time as the classes came home and the pedagogy was found wanting especially given the sums being sucked from payers !

Finance that accounts for 8% of GDP whose friction-filled ways and fee grabbing for no clear benefit (in many cases there is a clear benefit but in many there is not) will be hacked by new upstarts, increased transparency and a generation of inheritors who have grown up with Free Trading, Digital Mindsets and Robo-Everything.

Health Care (18% GDP) whose sphaghettiness of complexity and tortoise speed process– where for every 1 doctor, there are 6 supporting health care workers but TEN administrators–will meet an overstretched government and populace who realize with the Covid Vaccines that a bit of urgency and focused incentives can accelerate progress!

Great wealth and power creation and destruction will ensue all over the world. And it will be a key to politics. Just see what happened to Ant Financial earlier this month which was going to be the largest IPO in the world and was personally pulled by President Xi ( it was not just because of a critical speech by Jack Ma.)

Finance, health, education are intertwined into the fabric of society as they twist into new shapes so will a lot more of the landscape, politics and culture around us.

Photograph: Oxford Tire Pile #5, Westley, California 1999 by Edward Burtnysky

5. Global Warming/Climate Change/Environment in a Connected World.

It is not surprising that President-Elect Biden has placed a person of John Kerry’s stature to oversee the United States initiatives on climate and made it a national security level job. In China, President Xi watches and monitors the smog in Beijing and hotels in New Delhi, India which often has the worst pollution of any major city post air quality signs in the lobby to let you know if it is safe to step outside.

Denying climate change is like denying gravity. It does not matter what we “think” for just like if we reject gravity, it will not prevent us from becoming a symphony of broken bones and goo if we step out of a multi-storied building to broadcast our “beliefs. “

Science is reality.

Science does not care what you or me or a dog named Boo thinks or what our mind-corroding social media feed projectile vomits at us.

Everywhere I “Zoom” these days it is heartening to see Business and their Boards/ CEO’s take a leadership role on all forms of Sustainability . They do this not only because it is the right thing to do but because without it no “Purpose Mantra” rings true and as importantly their customers and their employees demand it. Big investment firms like BlackRock monitor it.

The climate is interrelated with everything including mass migration of people.

We can expect over the next decade protecting the climate will be a part of all major political, economic and social discussions, as we move beyond “if” it is a challenge to “how and what” to do as the globe to address it.

Modern Science at speed has shown us a light at the end of the Covid tunnel with 2 and possibly 3 vaccines showing 90% efficacy.

If 2020 is known as the year of Covid and its impact, I believe 2021 will be the year of the Vaccine Drive and its impact.

The logistical, political, ethical, economical and societal effects of the next year will be dramatic.

For instance:

Photo: Deda Chicken Processing Plant, Dehui City, Jilin, China, 2005 by Edward Burtynsky

1) Which countries get access and which populations in a country get access first? Is a European life worth more than an African life? What happens when people of means who got covid-tests on demand ensure they and their families jump the line to get vaccines?

2) Will businesses insist that all employees get a certificate of vaccination before they can return to work? Will employees sue about this interference in their health? Will a cottage Industry of fake certifications like fake driving licenses arise? What if the star employee insists on working primarily from home even after vaccine because they have realized that in a distributed world demand for their skills is global.

3) What happens when side effects of the vaccine are weaponized against vaccinations on social media? What happens with regard to adulterated vaccines?

Never before has anyone dealt with anything like this.

Seven Billion people around the world. Multiple vaccines. A Chinese vaccine. A Russian vaccine. The biggest producer of vaccines is in India, but they produce for the world. Will the Indian Government “nationalize” the output of production for their own people?

The Reason to be Optimistic.The scale of these changes may want you hit pause and to step out of these raging waters.

Change can be scary, but History provides a hopeful plot to the twists in the River

If one looks back at the world 20, 40 or 60 years ago most people would rather be alive today.

Despite all the challenges and tragedies, the world is better off for humanity as a whole (though there are winners and losers.)

Change is nothing but questions seeking and pointing the way to the answer.

And the river of change will feed the tide of growth and the current of life!

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