Ed Mitchell's Blog, page 2

Safe Recover or Stupid Stagnation

Many times I’ve stood up against stupid federal, state and local decisions, laws, ordinances, or rules. That’s why on Monday, I’m going to break one of Monterey County’s restrictions during this pandemic.

I’m going to deliberately support a local roofing-contractor to replace the old roof on my house. Why? So, income can start flowing to workers while not jeopardizing anyone from coming down with the Wuhan China coronavirus. And I’m going to do it without a county permit. A permit we asked for and were willing to pay. But oh no! I, and my neighbors, can’t do that until the brilliant supervisors and county staff say we can.

Please, let me quickly lay out how brilliant it is to impose a you-can’t-go-to-work policy if one-place in the county has a pandemic problem.

California open farm land

Fact 1: I live in Monterey County, California which is a coastal agricultural area 125-miles-long and 35-miles-wide. The majority of the population is in two urban areas near the ocean. The rest is county-jurisdiction, mainly farmland or mountains. I live in the rural area called North County where the vast-majority of parcels are 2.5 acres or larger.

Fact 2:  Here’s today’s pandemic statistics by location:

Salinas City = 62% of the infected people.
South County = 16%
Peninsula / coastal towns = 16%
North County = 5%

Fact 3: Here’s the City vs. County roofing permit status

>> Salinas City is issuing roofing permits in the 62% infection-area.
>> The county is NOT issuing building / roofing permits in the 5% area

Fact 4: This job can be safely performed. I’ve directed my roofer to ensure his people are socially distanced while working on my property. I will also not get near them. For example, I will put a start-work payment check on the porch instead of handing to the foreman. Plus, I will supply a sanitation station for the crew with hand sanitizer and hand washing items (hose + bowl + soap).

Conclusion 1: The county government is not flexible in removing work restrictions in the safest place to work in the county. That course of action delays the economic recovery for small-businesses in North County, California while the supervisors keep cashing their $10,000-a-month checks.

Laborers can socially distance themselves

Conclusion 2: A low-risk back-to-work transition can be started in sections of this county, state, and country with confidence, thought, and trust in working men and women.

Oh, and Ed’s a damn revolutionary.

Pandemic Learning: Fast or Slow — Safe or Sorry?

Our government took excellent action in January by quickly placing constraints on entry into U.S. airports by travelers arriving from countries infected with the Wuhan, China coronavirus. And behind the scenes there may be other excellent actions. However, since the sudden cluster of coronavirus victims and deaths in Kirkland, Washington officials on the federal government’s containment-team, as well as esteemed doctors from around the country, have been communicating well-intended but conflicting advice to the public. How poor? Often the public rejects it, and sometimes, city officials fight it.

Why am I speaking up when I’m no doctor? First, we all have skin in this game. In my case, my grandparents lived in Kirkland Washington for 50+ years, while much of my remaining family resides in the Seattle-Tacoma-Everett area.

Second, we need to rapidly surface and share the best containment and self-protection techniques during this pandemic. Not just locally — but city to city and nationally. Additionally, my background in high performing systems behavior caused me to spot some early-on mistakes and ineffective communications by federal, state, and city teams trying to do their best during the first fast-spiking virus-cluster in the U.S.

I comment based upon the following perspective:

>> High performing systems (HPS) learn faster than their opponent.

>> High performing systems have a quick feedback loop that identifies what’s working & not working well, and shares this information across the team, seeking a fix. (If the latest new-hire on the team has a better fix than the president of the company — fine!)

>> Low performing systems bicker and blame instead of focusing on fixes.

Therefore, the following assessment is intended to set aside personal blame and instead encourage people on the front-lines of the pandemic to routinely use HPS techniques.

High performance teams communicate clearer than lower performing teams.

While I was recently in Seattle, the Seattle KOMO TV report of February 26. excellently captured the similarity of advice from multiple expert sources about how people should self-protect. Below, in brown text, is a summary of that advice from federal containment personnel, along with national and local TV / radio talk-show doctors. The advice commonly includes the phrases “average person” or “general population”. Those phrases mean people in normal low-risk daily influenza conditions.

>> CDC doesn’t recommend people use face masks.

>> Only wear a face mask if you are sick.

>> Don’t buy and don’t wear face masks for protection against the coronavirus.

>> We don’t have enough masks for U.S. caregivers.

>> Better to lower the risk to caregivers than lower the risk for the general public.

>> Don’t panic.

But what wasn’t said by the experts?

There was no advice on what happens if low-risk conditions in your neighborhood or workplace swiftly turn into high-risk conditions. And that’s exactly what surfaced on February 29th at the Life Care Center of Kirkland, Washington, along with the subsequent movement of infected people into the EvergreenHealth Medical Center.

The first coronavirus cluster began in my grandparent’s home town.

After the outbreak and as the death count rose, federal, state, or city officials who were leading the pandemic-containment effort did not tell the public that there was a significant change in risk status within one facility. Nor, did I hear how that spike in risk would or would not affect the public living next door or working at the businesses a couple of blocks away. CNN reported on March 4th “… patients and family members say they are left in the dark.” To me, officials basically communicated along the lines of: Just keep doing what you’re doing even if you live and work near the cluster-site.

A better approach would have included the following high performing systems “feedback and fix information” shown in green.

>> Initially, these containment steps went well.

>> These steps didn’t.

>> Here’s what we’re going to do to immediately improve containment and protect nearby residences and businesses.

>> Here’s what families can do if at-risk family members are in a cluster-site.

>> Here’s what care centers/hospitals in the state need to do if they suspect or have a spike in their facility.

This additional, honest and timely information would have better quelled local concerns/anxiety, would have increased confidence in fed-state-city containment officials, and would have quickly transferred learning to other front-line families and facilities. People would have better felt that help and corrections are on the way or have arrived.

U.S. Cavalry to the rescue

Establishing the Kent city quarantine hotel

What went well.  Seattle, Kent, and Kirkland cities are in King County. During March 4 and 5, King County announced it was establishing several quarantine centers distributed around their jurisdiction. This course of action has merit and appeared responsive to the rising number of citizens exposed to infected people. The Kent solution was creative. County officials quickly bought a motel that was up for sale. It was selected because individual rooms did NOT open into a common hallway and each room had individual HVAC so NO potentially-contaminated air circulated from room to room.

Plus, I believe the individuals assigned the task were busting their butts to get the sites up and running in days to better protect the public. Many people agreed with the need for Q-sites, while recognizing that the risk level was going to rise for people and businesses that would be close to the sites within the cities receiving the quarantine centers.

Three things did not go well.

#1 A pre-planned communication effort did not immediately emerge with the contractual and physical work to bring the Kent facility on-line. The mayor of Kent was not notified of the county’s plan to position a Q-site within her jurisdiction before county people showed up. She had to call the county. Neighboring businesses did not hear about the site until county personnel arrived at the hotel. Even the workers were not informed what would happen to their jobs. Most troubling was the county plan to allow quarantine folks to come and go at will. Upon hearing that, locals felt this was a dangerous plan that would guarantee spreading the virus to them. Compounding that belief was the mayor could not get the county to modify their plan and actually restrict people inside the Q-site. for 14-days. Thus, the City of Kent sued the county to stop the plan. That’s how poor they judged the plan, the communications, and the cooperation they received from the county.

#2 At the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak Seattle-area elected officials appeared reluctant to forcibly constrain the movement of citizens via 14-day quarantines. Taking quick action that disrupts peoples’ lives was clearly a new behavior for state, county, and city officials. Unfortunately, it’s a once in a lifetime pandemic that requires new behavior. Yes, elected officials will be berated and disliked for constraining-actions that they must take to protect a broader group of people. Yes, the personal lives of many people and the finances of local businesses will be affected very quickly.

#3 Don’t name a quarantine-site a quarantine-site when it isn’t. Or restrict all quarantined people to stay on-site, within a fenced area, with delivered food and medical observation.

A better solution: When a containment action raises the risk level in a community, that risk will raise valid concerns within the locals and must be proactively and publicly addressed — not ignored. The final result may still be distasteful, but the public and their elected officials will not feel blindside, used, and that their families and businesses are not important. Better cooperation will occur with better communication about restrictions when restrictions are needed and going to be imposed.

Run for your lives!

Preparing not panicking as the pandemic emerged

What went well. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, should be applauded for his ability to present a calm, determined, prepared, and informed demeaner when speaking to the public about preparing for the pandemic and about federal containment actions. His presentations before the first outbreak-cluster were good examples for other containment officials.

The good news is that millions of people from coast to coast are following his advice and the advice on  CDC and state websites to prepare for a pandemic. This is easy for the millions who have previously prepared for  natural disasters. For example, In California the public is encouraged to prepare for earthquakes and forest fires. Stocking up so a family of four can survive without electricity for 3 to 7 days is encouraged. Similarly, along the south-east coast of the United States, people prepare for hurricanes, as do people in tornado alley, stretching from Oklahoma to Ohio.

Conflicting Communications that did not work well. Officials below Secretary Azar, as well as doctors on media outlets repeatedly kept saying don’t panic and implied buying up limited items is panic behavior. The public has the right to know when does appropriate and encouraged preparation become panic? I can’t find on the CDC or state websites any explanation of what panic behavior looks like. CDC does say panic is a state of anxiety.

The communication problem is telling people to “prepare” then saying “don’t panic” when the bad behavior isn’t described. For example, if CDC feels panic behavior is hoarding or trampling others at Home Depot to buy the last few rolls of paper towels  — then say so. Clarity is needed since one official’s panic is another person’s preparation.

For several reasons, it is not unreasonable and it is not panicking, to buy surgical, N95, and N99 masks at local stores to better fight off a coronavirus infection. For example, mothers or fathers are not panicking lunatics when they begin stocking the family pantry with extra food, medical, and cleaning items for a possible self-imposed or forced 14-day quarantine.

This sucks!

Their proactive efforts should be applauded. Unless they run over their neighbor with the car to get a package of sanitary-wipes, knock down a person to get into the pharmacy, or yank a case of soup out of another buyer’s arms.

Preparation also includes home-caregivers handling special needs at home where they are forced into close-proximity with a possible sick person. That is what they are supposed to do when handling people with pre-existing respiratory ailments or compromised immune systems. So, they should buy masks and that is not panic behavior.

The blanket advice for the remainder of the public to not buy masks unless they are sick, conflicts with the guidance to wear masks to protect others when you become sick. Being compliant requires each family to buy at least one package of masks. So, when are they supposed to buy the masks? To the man and woman on the street that means buy now and put the masks on the shelf in case someone in the family comes down sick later.

Advice about surgical masks, as if, the advice applies to N95 and N99 masks, or advice which is just not logical has caused many people to ignore CDC and state official about not buying masks. For example, here’s the advice issued while I was driving into Seattle just before the virus-crap hit the fan in Kirkland. A public health officer from the Seattle area said:

“Masks really don’t block the particles. . . “Air can come around the side of them and you can inhale the droplets if someone close to you is coughing or sneezing.”

Kevin Hart says it best.

>> We won’t inhale the droplets when we are NOT wearing a face mask near a sneezing person?

>> Wearing a mask will NOT reduce the amount of infected moisture inhaled?

>> We get sick if we breathe in the coronavirus, so trying to filter out infected air with any mask is bad?

Advice that masks don’t work also conflicts with what many people see at coronavirus scenes. For example, millions of Americans have watched many quick-reaction and medical caregivers, in other countries and at the Life Care Center of Kirkland, wearing masks. Is it because the firemen, EMT, and emergency room personnel expect the people they will encounter are often sneezing or coughing? Possibly. Or is it also because masks, especially N95 and N99 masks, do increase a person’s protection along with other means of prevention, even when people are not sneezing?

Possible patient signing in to a Wuhan, China hospital.

Advice that masks don’t work conflicts with the real-world condition that, crap happens. For example, there I was in Kent, Washington because a family member was in ICU after a complication during a surgery. Of course, I drove to the Seattle area to be with the family.

But being well informed about the coronavirus, I’m keeping my social distance, not riding the elevator in my motel, washing my hands often, using sanitary wipes to clean my truck, as well as doorknobs into my room, and placing a do not disturb sign so cleaning people stay out of my room. Plus, I’ve had this year’s flu inoculation. I’ve been doing everything right in an area where the health officials say 200 to 300 people may be infected but are unknown in the community .So, no need to wear my N95 mask, even though I brought protection supplies for all my nieces and their loved ones because those items were sold out locally.

Then, the day before I leave town I’m walking down the hallway to get to my room. Just before I reach the alcove where the elevators are, I hear a huge cough. And I’m blasted by a woman who didn’t cough into her elbow because she didn’t know anyone was coming down the hallway. Immediately I wish I was wearing my mask.

Got Ya!

Four days later and I’m at home. Despite always telling people I’m “strong like bull” I’m in a susceptible group. I’m over 65.  So, I’m self-quarantining myself. And guess what? I woke up today with a scratchy throat, have coughed a few times, plus a headache. Hopefully, I’m just feeling poorly from all the hours I spent driving 2,000-miles to avoid planes routinely flying into and out of SeaTac airport. Only 10 days to go.

The last conflicting communication is advising people they don’t need to buy masks because federal officials say the country is critically short of prevention items for hospital and quick reaction care givers. Unfortunately, the communications issued before or since the Kirkland Life Care Center outbreak have never addressed federal and state actions to increase quantities of caregiver protection items, except test-kits.

Thus, it is not panic for a person to feel that federal and state health officials should have been contracting for millions of masks once the coronavirus started arriving in the U.S. in January. So, now that the virus is infecting and killing locals, folks are going to finish preparing by buying what is on the shelf for their families.

Eliminating conflicting communications

If federal and state contracts have been signed, I encourage Secretary Azar and officials to share that information with the public. Plus, they could request that the public only buy 1 package of masks per household and have restraint on purchasing other items during the coming 30 days.

Had the containment team shared the contracting-status then their request for restraint by the public might have slowed some of the buying. Even if it didn’t, the less confusing and more direct messaging would increase the trust for advice coming from the multi-agency containment team trying to squash the pandemic.

About to hit

Conclusion: Well-meaning advice for low-risk pandemic-areas, needs to be accompanied with well-meaning advice about what to do when the virus-crap hits the fan.

It is human nature to buy available products that can help protect one’s family from a forest fire, hurricane, tornado, or pandemic. The federal government has the means to contract for large amounts of critical materials for distribution as it sees fit. Encouraging public-buyers to delay purchases is unlikely to prevent local stock of critical material, like face masks, from being unavailable to the government.

Meanwhile, millions of citizens will decide when to self-mask but could be influenced by the government’s containment experts on when to use self-masking with other self-protection techniques during high-risk pandemic conditions.

Recommended standard operating procedure

Before this pandemic ends its course through the USA, other cities will see cluster-spikes within their jurisdictions. Hopefully, not as bad or worse than what Kirkland is facing. Therefore, containment officials from the Vice-President to local health officials should conduct a daily status meeting that asks-and-answers the following questions for their jurisdiction. Then, periodically communicate the truth to the public.

>> What are the containment and outbreak trends in the last 7-day period?

>> What is the change in the infected-recovered-died statistics in the last 24-hours

>> What containment actions have gone well in the last 24-hours?

>> What’s not gone well?

>> What fixes have we implemented or are needed?

Recommended questions to be answered by federal and state task forces

>> When does appropriate and encouraged preparation become panic?

>> Are people living or working next to a high-risk facility at higher risk of catching the new coronavirus?

>> Are people safer from becoming infected by self-masking in their residence, or business next to a highly-infected site?

>> What is the criterion for closing a local business near a highly-infected site?

>> Several cruise ships have had coronavirus clusters. Similar to Legionnaires Disease, can the new coronavirus infect people after blowing through the ventilation system on cruise ships?

>> Why is it okay to self-quarantine but not self-mask?

>> Under what risk-conditions is it appropriate to self-mask?

>> When and how many millions of protection-gear has the federal government contracted for, before and since the Kirkland Washington Life Care Center outbreak?

  Encouragement for containment teams

In the 4th thriller in my series, The Destiny Relic, I write about using the MERS coronavirus to achieve a security goal in the Middle East. Associated with that incident is a verse from the bible, which may provide a useful perspective for containment teams and families on the front line of the coronavirus-pandemic. “I have set before you life and death, blessing and curse. Therefore, choose life, that you and your seed may live.”

From: Author Ed Mitchell

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Open Borders — An Invitation to the 2020 Pandemic

Please do not presuppose by the title of this article that I’m going to present a political view, for or against some political party while offering answers to the brown-colored questions below. Why, because as a former Army officer I’m not into blaming an opponent. I’m into quick and effective problem solving. One slick way that I’ve learned to rapidly get to a good solution is getting the people facing a problem off of a blank sheet of paper. In other words: free up teammates to provide much needed improvements.

I do that by proposing or writing out a possible solution and then asking my team “What’s wrong with this approach. How can we improve it?” That is what I’m doing with this article. Along the way if you see weaknesses or have a better answer, I encourage you to add a comment to this blog so others can see what you have to offer. He we go.

How should our national leadership respond to the 2020 China coronavirus pandemic along our physical borders and at air/land/sea entry points?

You certainly are not going to get much insight about that macro-question from TV news or opinion outlets. They now practice reporting as fast as possible what happened. But you rarely hear any of them address the importance of proactive planning. That’s why you haven’t heard them ask challenging questions of senior health and security officials, regarding pandemic-mitigation operations at our borders. Such as:

>> What likely arrival scenario is our government preparing for?

>> What criterion will cause additional border restrictions to go into effect?

>> What are those restrictions?

>>  What operational changes are needed to ensure effective implementation?

National Health & Security Scenario: The below likely-scenario is provided to help the reader recognize the risks of allowing entry into our country. The following four variables are addressed to clearly describe a possible pandemic-scenario.

#1  Virus type

….#2  Spread / movement outside and toward the U.S.

…….#3  Weather effect at arrival

………#4  Vaccine availability at the time of the border crossing

Virus Type at Arrival: The Wuhan China virus demonstrates a R4 infection rate (fast spreader), has a 2.3% fatality rate (higher than SARS), and a 20% ICU hospitalization rate. This virus doesn’t care about political parties or if you are brown, black, white, gay, religious, Italian, Brazilian, kind or cruel, wealthy or poor. It just wants to get into the nearest human host it can reach. Then it wants to thrive in the host until it is strong enough to float through the air or be spilled or handed to other unsuspecting humans. And if the host travels across borders the pandemic spreads farther and farther. And open borders are best because there is less chance the virus will be spotted and stopped from expanding into other population centers.

City-Cluster in Daegu Korea

Spread/Movement Outside and Toward the U.S.  The China coronavirus will continue infecting people around the glove during the month of March and April. The total-infected will double from the current number of 83,700+ up to 167,000+ by March 30 and 251,000 by April 30.

Every continent will have multiple cities with infected and dying patients. City-clusters ( a city with 300 or more infected ) will exist in nations in all continents, including Latin and South America. Community transmission (unknown source of transmission) will be more and more common.

City lockdowns will be the standard immediate-response by national health officials and leaders of city-clusters. People will seek to move out-of-country away from infected population areas. Travelers will depart for the U.S. from city-clusters via non-stop and multiple-leg air, land, and sea-transport or by walking.

A steady stream of  travelers seeking to get into the U.S. will appear at hundreds of border entry points requiring screening to determine if they can enter. Many will be contagious but not showing symptoms. As is being seen at departure and arrival-airports today, some people will lie to avoid being quarantined. They will lie that they have not traveled from a city-cluster nation in the last two weeks.

Singapore Hotter than Wuhan, China

Weather Effect: Warmer weather will not significantly slow the infection rate of the virus, as is occurring. February infections in Singapore and Mumbai, India adds doubt to those hoping warmer weather will significantly slow the spread of the virus.

Vaccine Availability: The U.S., China, Israel, and Canada will fast-track potential vaccines into human trials but approval and large-scale production will not allow wide-spread inoculation to begin until late-April. Month-long home/self-quarantining will remain the primary anti-pandemic procedure for families to avoid bumping into virus-carrying people.

Triggering Criterion and Restrictions: As soon as a nation has a reported a city-cluster of 350 or more infected people, the following restrictions shall be implemented:

>> U.S. citizens may return from a nation with a 350+ city-cluster to the U.S., but will be placed into immediate quarantine for 14 days.

>> Any non-American-citizen will not be allowed to enter the U.S. if they have been in a nation within the last two weeks, that has a city-cluster of 350 or more people. Nor will they be allowed to travel by any U.S. owned commercial transportation to the U.S. For example, today travelers from China (78,000+), Deagu South Korea (2,337), and Milan Italy (655)  would not be allowed into the U.S.

>> All aliens attempting to illegally enter into the U.S. will be arrested and immediately sent back outside the U.S northern or southern border.

U.S. Cavalry to the rescue

Implementation / Changes: Currently, the U.S. does not track traveler movements. However, to prevent a person from hiding that they began or passed through a state with a 350+ cluster, the FAA must coordinate with foreign owned airline companies to receive passenger tracking information from the first leg of travel through the final one into the USA.

Conclusion: I believe a pandemic is coming. The scenario presented above scopes how that pandemic can present itself. It also scopes the challenge our government faces to prevent easy entry of the virus. Current traveler entry points need more hardening. Plus, our physical southern and northern borders must be closed to illegal entry.

However, Some readers may prefer open borders so they may disagree with the suggested triggering criterion and restrictions. If you are one of those people, please comment on how open borders can remain during a pandemic. Some may say the restrictions harm privacy rights. Please comment how to balance human rights versus a killer virus. But I hope that a majority of readers will agree that there are likely scenarios that could harm the USA, that triggering criteria and restrictions must be publicized in order to protect the population from uncontrolled spreading of the virus. So, if you think there is some merit in the suggested criterion and restrictions, please comment on this blog.

From: Author Ed Mitchell

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China’s Coronavirus: Natural or Escaped Bio-Weapon?

On December 31st 2019, China notified the World Health Organization of a coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan City, which is often called the Chicago of China1 located 550 miles west of coastal Shanghai. When I heard there was a fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, I said, “Shit!”

My concern was immediate because the epidemic broke out a few miles from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which is located in the center of town. Especially, since it’s the only declared lab site in China capable of working with deadly viruses.2  The CIA, NSA, and U.S. military have excellent intelligence regarding Wuhan. For example, a 2019 State Department report revealed suspicions covert biological warfare work in Wuhan.3 The coincidence of bio-warfare work going on in the same city where the outbreak occurred, triggered my worry that a modified virus may have escaped from the bio-lab.

Downtown Wuhan, China

So, I decided to shine light on this issue to help readers make sound near-term decisions to protect their family or themselves. What I’m trying to do is along the lines of a military intelligence report about what’s happening in the field. So, prepare to read about:

Initial coverup

Key characteristics of the virus

How was the virus transferred to people in Wuhan?

What isn’t happening or being asked in Wuhan?

Decision: Natural or escaped bio-weapon?

Why should you put faith in anything I say?

First, to assist you in accessing the merit of my statements, I’ve footnoted the Internet sources I’ve stitched together in this blog. Each surfaced during the first 73-days of the outbreak. Some I think you will decide are excellent sources. For example, the John Hopkins University real-time infection-mortality-recovery-map.4

Dashboard – Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE. Excellent website for Infection – Mortality status

Second, I’m applying 25.5 years of military experience in the U.S. Army. That includes being suited up within five feet of instantly-kill-you militarized nerve gas. Yes, it caused my pucker factor to spike that day. Plus, I have researched and thought about bio-weapon development long before the appearance of the Wuhan China virus. For example, in my first thriller ( Gold Rush 2000 ), I described impacts from a leak of weaponized-virus from a virology lab in California. Later in my counterterrorism thriller ( The Destiny Relic ) I presented the pros and cons of using weaponized pathogens in the Middle East, including MERS coronavirus, to achieve a national security goal.

Third, I’m applying good research methodology that I learned at the United States Military Academy (West Point).  First, state a problem hypothesis. Then try to disprove it. This approach is intended to force the analyst to avoid being biased. Here’s my investigation hypothesis: The Wuhan coronavirus is NOT a naturally-occurring pathogen and may be an escaped weaponized virus that can cause a pandemic.

To disprove or prove the hypothesis I must seek evidence along the chain of development of a laboratory manipulated virus, through its release into the environment, and finally its physical transfer into patient-zero. But to find that evidence may require filtering through any coverup by officials in Wuhan and up to the top of the People’s Communist Party.

Chain of development and accidental release of the Wuhan coronavirus.

Coverup Concerns

Across the Internet, on TV and radio, and in the minds of many people in many countries a troubling question emerged after the Wuhan outbreak announcement. Are China’s leaders once again treating an epidemic as a state secret and covering up the size of the epidemic in their country, just as they did in 2002-2003 during the SARS outbreak.5 Almost immediately many of those discussing this possibility were labeled as conspiracy whackos.

Chinese authorities in Hubei Province, where the outbreak started, went beyond labeling people. During early-December 2019 they suppressed a doctor and an independent journalist from digitally announcing there was a new coronavirus outbreak. The doctor was arrested and later died from the virus, while the journalist disappeared.6 However, China could not stop all the iPhone videos and social media evidence leaking to the outside world showing what was happening in the hospitals and streets of Wuhan. Plus, numerous sources outside China could not be closed down.

Crowded Wuhan hospital

In parallel, the U.S. National Security Agency communication-intelligence monitoring must have collected Chinese government communications as the outbreak grew, revealing concerns beyond public announcements by China’s leaders. Which may have motivated the U.S. to offer on several occasions to help fight the outbreak by sending epidemic experts from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Offers that were turned down by China until February 2, 2020.7 Of course, the lack of approval caused some people to believe the Chinese had something to hide and did not want American experts finding out their secret. Possibly a virus leak from the local bio-weapon lab?

But on the positive side, on February 11, 2020 Dr. Michael Ryan, executive director of the WHO Health Emergencies Program, told reporters, “We’ve seen no obvious lack of transparency.” 8  Similarly, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services also said China has been more transparent than they were with SARS.9  Supporting those statements is the fact that the death rate, since the total number of infected climbed above 500, has been stable at or near 2.3%. For example, the death rate was 2.26% as shown on the John Hopkins University dashboard on February 11, 2020 when there was a total of 60,286 people infected around the globe.

So, I believe that the combination of social media evidence and outside pressure by WHO, the U.S. and critics, convinced China to stop covering up initial results. One outcome was on February 12th, Hubei province officials “revised” their method of reporting coronavirus infections. Their updated count of infections jumped by 14,840 while fatalities doubled to 242 for the province.10

How ugly is the Wuhan coronavirus? 

The danger of the newest coronavirus outbreak was highlighted by its exponential growth of confirmed infections. It rose from 1 person to above 60,000 11 people during the 73-day period from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020.

During that period, trend data emerged, as shown in Figure-1 below that I created, which provides clarity about key characteristics of the Wuhan virus. That is, if you assume the number of infected and died that is daily reported to the World Health Organization are accurate. Given the reported numbers, my tracking of the mortality rate, once 200 or more infections were reported, always hovered around 2.3%. For example, the death rate on February 11, 2020 for a total of 60,286 people infected around the globe was 2.26%. So, the virus is a fast spreading, slow recovery, low-mortality pathogen. Fast spreading is a good thing in a bio-weapon.

Figure 1 – Key Characteristics & Similarities

But people like Jon Cohen staff writer for ScienceMag.org, argues that the reported infection-death rate is suspect.12 However if underreporting is occurring, how can the Chinese achieve a steady mortality number across all the provinces reporting in China. Well, one way could be if the province officials were ordered to NOT report any deaths above 2.3% mortality. Then, send the unreported bodies to a crematory to eliminate the evidence.

Figure-1 presents several disturbing trends such as, the virus is new so the Chinese do not have an on-hand antiviral inoculation.13  Thus, China is forced to fight the epidemic by physical means, including city-wide and nation-wide quarantine. Also, the infectious virus can be spread by people who don’t show any symptoms of being sick and by aerosol drift from coughing or breathing. Plus, the Wuhan Virus spreads faster (higher infection rate) than the earlier Chinese SARS virus. The result: the 2020 Wuhan virus has killed more people in 6 weeks than the 2002 SARS did in 8 months.”14

More promising news is that Nature Research Journal confirmed that the Wuhan coronavirus and the SARS-CoV are almost identical to each other because they share 79.5% of the same genomes and each uses the same cell entry receptor, ACE2. Thus, the inoculation to stop the earlier SARS outbreak may possible be adapted to stop the Wuhan outbreak.15

Two things I haven’t seen discussed on the internet or TV, except by me here. One is what I call the incapacity rate (IR) where higher-is-better in a bio-weapon to stop enemy soldiers or factory workers from doing their jobs. Figure-1 shows it in doctor-talk as the “serious-complication rate” = 20%.  Wuhan patients with serious complications couldn’t breathe without medical assistance and where sent into intensive care units.

My second metric is the infection-to-recovery rate (I2R), which is a sister to the incapacity rate. You calculate this rate by subtracting died and recovered from total infected, then calculate the percentage left over. By the end of the 73-day period 85% of those-infected remained sick, including the ICU patients. How long that it takes for an average-sick-person to recover and not be able to infect others, with or without medical care, remains unclear at this time.

How was the virus transferred to humans in Wuhan? 

Hunting down the source of an epidemic commonly includes finding “Patient-Zero”. A team from the Jin Yin-tan Hospital in Wuhan set out to do that by analyzing the first 41 people infected by the coronavirus in Wuhan.16  They failed and only got as close as patient-1 for two different groups of people. Here’s how that happened.

The hospital released their results on January 24th, 2020 and Chart-B below, graphically portrays their major findings.  Notice that the chart shows the date of infection for each of the 41 tracked patients and whether they were exposed at the Huanan Seafood Market or somewhere else in Wuhan.

Importantly, the hospital analysis rectified the government’s December announcement that the outbreak began in the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market.17  That claim was incorrect. Yes, the seafood market can be considered cluster-zero. But notice that 14 of the 41 infected people were not associated with the fish market. Those blue-patients caught the virus someplace else and were not identified as another cluster.

Additionally, the earliest infected patient was a blue-patient who had to have caught the disease in November. But that blue-patient and the other blue-patients didn’t infect the red ones associated with the seafood market. Thus, a true, singular patient-zero may have existed in November who has not been found or identified in any hospital. Therefore, a November patient-zero could have infected the blue-patient-1 who appeared on December 1st and also infected the red-patient-1 who appeared on December 2nd. OR an animal infected the blue and red groups.

My independent interpretation of the hospital’s chart is consistent with the assessment by Dr. Daniel Lucey, who is an infectious diseases physician and adjunct professor of infectious diseases at Georgetown University Medical Center. In an interview shortly after the Wuhan hospital report was published online, he said about the December 1st blue-patient-1: “Whether this patient was infected from an animal or another person in November, directly or by fomites (surface contact of infectious material), his infection occurred at a location other than the Huanan seafood market.”18

But the hospital report did not address which animal mutated the coronavirus, which would have helped Chinese health officials know what local animal to clean out of Wuhan. We don’t need them to, because the Nature Research Journal, on February 3rd confirmed one animal connection to the Wuhan virus. As captured in the key characteristics on Figure-1, the Wuhan and SARS 2002 viruses are 79.5% identical. Therefore, since SARS is a bat-origin virus so is the Wuhan virus.

Plus, a second animal was identified by Dr. Trevor Bedford, of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle and a leader of the worldwide Nextstrain collaboration that began to analyze Wuhan virus genomes when they were released in January by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control. He declared a link to host-mammal (not yet identified). During the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in Seattle he said, “There is no evidence whatsoever of genetic engineering that we can find,” . . . “The evidence we have is that the mutations [in the virus] are completely consistent with natural evolution.” . . . “The most likely scenario, based on genetic analysis, was that the virus was transmitted by a bat to another mammal between 20-70 years ago. This intermediary animal — not yet identified — passed it on to its first human host in the city of Wuhan in late November or early December 2019.19

Supporting Bedford’s scenario, researchers from the South China Agricultural University found that samples from coronavirus patients were 99% identical to samples of a virus taken from wild pangolins (anteater type mammal).20  So the pangolin may be Bedford’s “intermediate animal” hosting the new coronavirus until passing it to a human in Wuhan.

The Jin Yin-tan Hospital also did not report the multiple locations where the blue-patients likely caught the coronavirus. But, assuming for a moment that all the blue-patients were another cluster — begs this question: How did two patient-1s (one blue and one red) at two independent locations get infected by a pangolin at nearly the same time in November 2019?

Person-to-Person or Mammal-to-Person transfer?

One animal-to-human transfer sequence to multiple locations during late-November 2019 might be as follows. The true patient-zero ( let’s assume an elderly person) in November 2019 ate infected pangolin meat.21  Then she or he moved around Wuhan without symptoms but able to infect others. Along the way she/he cross paths with the blue-1 and red-1 patients, triggering the epidemic. Elderly patient-zero dies from pneumonia and the doctor/hospital staff do not recognize her death as strange or related to a coronavirus, which is why she/he  didn’t show up in the Jin Yin-tan Hospital report. Therefore, the Chinese have a basis for claiming the Wuhan coronavirus is a naturally-occurring pathogen that was transferred from a mammal to a human.

One remaining finding is important. The death rate for this small group of 41 people was very high at 14.6% (6 people). That rate is over 6-times higher than the 73-day trend of 2.3%. Possibly the high death-rate was because the six people did not get medical care early enough to prevent their demise.

What isn’t seen or being talked about in China?

Often, a problem can be solved by hunting for what is missing. Across all the Internet and TV chatter, here’s the first thing that I noticed is missing: the lack of public announcements about proactive experts within the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) working to clean up the mess and save lives.

The missing piece

At the epicenter of this new coronavirus outbreak, shouldn’t the public know that China’s best virology experts have rolled up their sleeves and taken action? Where’s the publicity to tell the citizens of China that the WIV has taken responsibility to conduct an emergence effort to find an effective inoculation? (They are doing this.) Or news that the WIV has sent several seasoned “principal investigators” to the front lines to gather intelligence on the virus, like a crack team of Airborne Infantry Rangers to save the day. Or some comments about establishing a liaison team of WIV experts to interface with the soon-to-arrive U.S. Center for Disease Control team to work as a united front to save China and the world from a pandemic? It’s as if the Wuhan Institute of Virology never existed.

The missing piece

Meanwhile, the only thing close to telling the public that the cavalry has arrived is Army Maj. Gen. Chen Wei. On February 7th, he set up a mobile testing lab in a tent in Wuhan and began operations to contain the outbreak. He’s the man that the state-run Pengbai news outlet described as “our nation’s ultimate expert” in biological and chemical weapon defenses. Who is credited with working on the successful fight against the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, and the Ebola virus outbreak a decade later.22  Basically, Superman arrived while everyone in the WIV is working behind the scenes instead of in the limelight.

Dr. Shi Zhengli

For example,  Lead Virologist at WIV, Shi Zhengli and twelve other Institute scientists formed an expert group to research the new coronavirus. In February, researchers led by Shi published an article in Nature titled “A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin”, along with a post in bioRxiv, saying that the Wuhan coronavirus is in the same family as SARS and closest to one found in bats. In February 2020, her team published a paper in Cell Research showing that remdesivir, an experimental drug owned by Gilead Sciences had a positive effect in inhibiting the virus in vitro, and applied for a patent for the drug in China on behalf of the WIV.23

While Shi led WIV teams to help stop the outbreak, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported that she was the focus of personal attacks in Chinese social media by people claiming the WIV was the sources of the virus. That led her to post: “I swear with my life, [the virus] has nothing to do with the lab”. When asked to comment on the attacks, Shi responded: “My time must be spent on more important matters”.24

Additionally, Beijing’s Caixin media group reported Shi made public statements against “perceived tinfoil-hat theories about the new virus’s source”. Possibly, Dr. Shi forgot that in April 2004 SARS escaped from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing “due to negligence”.25

Caixin also quoted her as saying: “The novel 2019 coronavirus is nature punishing the human race for keeping uncivilized living habits. I, Shi Zhengli, swear on my life that it has nothing to do with our laboratory”.

Great! If what Shi Zhengli says is true, then as a leader within the WIV she should not mind answering the questions in Figure-2. If one of the WIV staff happens to have been infected in November 2019 he/she could be the true patient-zero.

I wouldn’t be surprised if  Dr. Shi lumps me into the tinfoil-hat folks if she ever learns I suggested these questions. Hopefully, if the U.S. CDC team ever gets allowed to enter China, maybe one of our folks will ask Dr. Shi these hard-hitting questions.

Escaped bio-weapon or natural virus?

The Chinese, who are known for covering up bio-lab leaks, have a strong argument that the Wuhan coronavirus was an animal-to-human transfer to the victims in Wuhan.

On the other hand, here is a list of facts assembled from the information discussed earlier, that corroborates that it is just as likely that the transmission was via a bio-lab leak into the population as by animal transmission.

√  A level-4 virology lab handles high-risk pathogens in Wuhan.

√  U.S. suspects the virology lab√ of conducting bio-weapons work.

√  China covered up an earlier coronavirus outbreak (2002-2003 SARS).

√  SARS escaped from Beijing’s CDC bio-lab because of negligence (2004).

√  China initially covered up the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

√  Hubei Province under-reported the number of infected and dead.

√  No WIV health status of its staff, research fellows, & visiting scientists.

√  China had been handling the SARS virus since 2002.

√  The Wuhan virus is 75% the same as the 2002-2003 SARS virus.

√  The Wuhan and 2003 SARS use the same ACE2 receptor

√  China unable to identify Wuhan’s patient-zero.

√  No animal has been found in the city carrying the Wuhan coronavirus.

√  China can’t prove transmission to citizens by bat or by human.

√  China can’t reconcile multiple infection-sites in Wuhan by animal-transfer for any of the first 41 infected patients.

√  China has not allowed CDC or WHO doctors to enter China.

Yes, it’s an interesting list but is countered by Dr. Bedford’s genetic analysis and declaration his scientific and statistical analysis supports a mammal-to-human transfer. Of course, there are numerous academics in America that have recently been outed for secretly working for and being paid nicely by the Chinese. But since I have no evidence that Bedford has a conflict of interest, I’m ignoring that possibility.

So, let’s go a step further by aligning information provided above along the chain-of-development of an escaped bio-weapon. Possibly, I can generate a picture that will support the hypothesis that a man-manipulated bio-weapon virus is the Wuhan coronavirus.

Pangolin infects WIV researcher who carries the Wuhan infection outside the lab

Pangolins are the most illegally trafficked mammals in the world.26  Because they are environmentally at risk, researchers have studied the animals. Nature Magazine reported on February 7th that before the Wuhan virus erupted that researchers had noted that coronaviruses are a possible cause of death in pangolins.27  Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that Wuhan Institute of Virology experts were aware that the pangolins were host for a coronavirus. They may have brought one or more of the animals into the WIV level-4 laboratory to study. There, one of the staff is infected and while showing no symptoms this patient-zero travels in and out of the lab and around Wuhan infecting others. When symptoms appear, he is quarantined and cured or dies. Meanwhile, the outbreak keeps growing outside the WIV.

Decision: Natural or Escaped Virus

Without any verification that one or more of the staff at the WIV were infected, then the escape portion of the above scenario cannot be proven. Thus, I have disproved my hypothesis. Therefore, based on the available information that I have — I must agree with Dr. Shi Zhengli and Dr. Trevor Bedford. The novel Wuhan coronavirus is a naturally occurring pathogen and not a weapons-lab modified virus.

However, if I had access to the United States’ satellite sensor data and NSA signals intelligence for November 2019 through February 12th 2020 — that might cause me to change my conclusion.

Conclusion

While the U.S. remained blocked from entering China, the Department of Homeland Security took a pandemic-mitigation step on January 31, 2020. The Department issued new entry procedures at our air and seaports. People in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico should thank our government for that action, despite China and WHO’s saying it was not needed.28  I end this blog the total number of infected now stands at 75,778 people.

Footnote Table 

Chicago of China —  Wikipedia   Feb 11, 2020
Wuhan Institute of Virology — Washington Times Jan 26, 2020
Biological warfare work in Wuhan — Washington Times Jan 26, 2020
John Hopkins CSSE  — Infections Dashboard   Feb 12, 2020
China SARS 2002-2003 coverup — Business Insider Feb 12, 2020
China suppresses Doctor and Journalist — The Vox  Feb 10, 2020

similar  Insufficient diagnosis kits — The Epoch Times  Jan 7, 2020

similar  China muzzled whistleblowers —   The Vox  Feb 10, 2020

similar Chen Qiushi missing —   Washington Times  Feb 11, 2020

U.S. Offers to send help  —  Zooming In   Feb 9, 2020
WHO says China transparent —  Newsweek  Feb 11, 2020
DHS says China transparent  —   Newsweek  Feb 11, 2020
Hubei Province revision — Bloomberg   Feb 12, 2020
60,000+ infections dashboard — John Hopkins CSSE Feb 12, 2020
Jon Cohen speaks out —  ScienceMag.com  Feb 11, 2020
Novel coronavirus in Wuhan — The Lancet, Articles Vol 395  Jan 24, 2020
Wuhan virus killed more than SARS — Business Insider  Feb 11, 2020
Near-identical viruses —   Nature Research Journal  Feb 3, 2020
Wuhan Hospital Patient-zero report —   The Lancet  Jan 24, 2020
Coronavirus Timeline first 30 days —Channel-4 News   Feb 12, 2020
Dr. Lucey speaks out —  Science Speaks  Jan 25, 2020
Coronavirus not genetically engineered — Financial Times Feb 13, 2020

similar Wuhan coronavirus mutation — The Telegraph   Feb 4, 2020

Pangolin possible virus transmitter — Business Insider   Feb 9, 2020
Pangolin popular in China — Wikipedia  Feb 19, 2020
MG Chen Wei fights outbreak — The Washington Time s  Feb 16, 2020
Lead Virologist at WIV, Shi Zhengli. — Wikipedia  Feb 18, 2020
WIV  rejects leak concerns — South China Morning Post   Feb 6, 2020
Officials punished for SARS leak — China Daily July 2004
2004 SARS Escaped Beijing bio-lab — Wikipedia   Feb 19, 2020
Pangolin deaths by coronavirus —  Nature  Feb 7, 2020
DHS issues supplemental instructions — DHS   Jan 31, 2020

From: Author Ed Mitchell

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Anger, Grace and Integrity While Sentencing a Killer

Anger

I never expected to witness the sentencing of an illegal immigrant for killing a fourteen-old girl within six miles of my home. But a few days ago I supported a friend at the Salinas, California courthouse. She was a long-time neighbor of the Piña family and vowed to make a statement before the killer was sent to prison.

It took over thirty years and unrelenting determination of the girl’s father, John Piña, to see the predator arrested and tried before a judge. The criminal was found guilty of kidnapping, raping, torturing, killing, and mutilating John’s daughter in 1990. Before the killer was finished he dumped her into an artichoke field near Castroville, California and filled her mouth with mud and tossed dirt on her to cover his actions. That including 23 puncture wounds in her body. It was not his first sexual assault on girls, nor was it his last.

Artichoke Fields near North Monterey County, CA

The Sheriff’s department quickly suspected him because he was a sex offender who lived in Castroville and several years before he had been found guilty of forcing a young girl to have sex with him. But the suspect disappeared into Mexico. Plus, the DNA forensic evidence found with the girl’s body was not accurate enough in 1990 for the prosecuting attorney to assure the family of a conviction.

There was another assault two years later after the predator returned, but a local man came upon the attack and saved the girl. Again he fled to Mexico and over the years fought against extradition. But the advancement of DNA analysis, the Monterey County law enforcement, the FBI, and President Trump led to the killer being extradited and returned to this county.

Now, in the courtroom my friend, Carol Blum sat beside the mother and other family members who planned to provide victim impact statements before final sentencing. Those statements had a similar structure and were delivered with anger and sadness. You are not a human! This is how you hurt me and others! May you suffer in prison!

I’m not being critical. Such emotional statements are common during sentencing of violent criminals.

Grace

But Carol’s statement was different. While struggling not to cry, she said:

“I was a neighbor to the Piña family. Three days after Christy was born I held her in my arms. I saw her often because she grew up with my children. She was a bubbly girl. One day she came to me and said, ‘Christmas is coming and I want to buy presents for my family. Can you give me a job so I can earn some money?’

“I had her do chores for me around the house. After she earned her first check she returned a few days later and handed me a present she had purchased. It was a cup with bears on it and the words ‘I love you’. That was the kind of girl that Christy was.”

In a few words, Carol brought Christy Sue Piña into the courtroom and celebrated her life. The statement had a distinct impact on all the friends and family. They cried. Even the judge tried to hide how the words struck her.

Christy Sue Pina

Integrity

Following the victim statements, the judge sentenced the predator for two crimes he was guilty of. Twenty-five years to life for the crime against Christy. Seven years for assaulting another girl.

After the judge ended the trial, a county representative led all of the family, friends, and enforcement personnel who had helped over the years on the Piña case, into a private room. The group included the lead prosecutor Deputy District Attorney Lana Nassoura, an active FBI agent, and a retired FBI agent who volunteered to work the case. Additionally in the room was the sheriff department’s detective Shaneen Jorganson who never let go of the hunt for and conviction of the predator.

Such a gathering is standard practice. This one was intended to mark the end of the journey the group had been on to close Christy’s case. It also helps people start transitioning from victim to survivor, as well as letting any lingering anger dissipate, and any lingering questions be answered.

As the process seemed to be almost over I offered an observation. “My experience with the legal system has taught me that any benefit or protection we receive from our laws is only as good as the integrity of those who enforce them. In this room we have a number of people who showed great integrity including, family members, the sheriff detectives, the FBI agents, and the prosecutors. Today after you leave you should all be proud of what you did for Christy.”

A Better Way

Before the group departed, John Piña announced that he was going to continue encouraging young offenders held in the local Juvenile Hall to walk away from crime and move toward a better life.

Clearly, for decades John has demonstrated grace and integrity for his daughter, for his family, and for his community. I expect someday he will be rewarded and reach heaven and be with his daughter.

Christy Sue Piña is buried in King City, California.

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From: Author Ed Mitchell

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Joy and Pain of a Romance Scam

Romance Scammers arrested in 2018

Since we were children we have been taught how to stay safe. “Don’t touch the hot stove. Don’t date a guy that mistreats you. Never text and drive at the same time. Beware of internet scams.” But here is my warning that you’ve probably never heard. Con-men and women are always likable — until they screw you. Just like the one that went after one of my relatives.

Wait a minute Ed. I’m cautious. I can take care of myself. I’ve watched shows by Oprah Winfrey and Doctor Phil on scammers. That won’t happen to me.

Yes, most of the time you are Wonder Woman or Superman who takes care of yourself and your family. But life events can make you more vulnerable because you don’t think as well as normally. For example when someone suffers the loss of a job, divorce, death of loved ones, severe storm damage to a home, and other major shakeups to our lives.

Those are the times that the scammer studies people on Facebook or other chat sites, then selects a weak one to pounce on. By studying a person’s running conversations they identify a vulnerability and values. Then they start chatting a little bit, then more and more to lull their target into trusting them. That’s why in 2018 romance scams were one of the most profitable internet/email scams and most financially harmful to their targets. Such scams pulled in $143 million dollars in 2018. It was the type of scam that my wife’s cousin (I’ll call her M.A.) was sucked into.

Both M.A. and I have lost our spouses. But for her it’s only been about a year without her lifetime love. We periodically chat on the phone, because we each represent a connection to our past lives. She also loves my book stories so it is a comfortable topic to discuss because it doesn’t trigger sad emotions.

During a recent call, M.A. was more cheerful than normal. She revealed that she had met a younger man on an internet chat room that she visits since she doesn’t get out of the house as much as she use to. Turns out he’s in the military in Afghanistan, is due home soon, and hopes to meet her then. He has the same faith as her, was married, and has a daughter attending Ohio State University. Furthermore, M.A. said she was totally honest with him about her age and health. But nothing has scared him away, YET!

Scams Always Sound Good

Hearing this story triggered red flags in my mind that this might not be as good as it sounds. So I asked M.A. if it might be a scam? She assured me that there was only a SLIM chance that he was not what he claimed. Some of her other friends had also cautioned her but she was being very careful. She had even found information and photos of him by Googling his name.

Having had a career in the military, as I continue to probe, more red flags start popping up for me. I asked if he had contacted her using a .mil email address. He had not. I also knew from his rank and photo that he was probably twenty years younger than M.A. I’ve had age-gap relationships with older women, like my wife, but twenty years is very uncommon.

A person’s photo can be used in a scam

Continuing to probe, I learned he had sent her a photograph of his passport to help reassure her he was who he claimed. Big red flag for me. An authentic soldier would not make that type of security breach. And if this was a scam, misusing a passport would be a felony crime.

But I can understand why a scammer would try this technique to comfort a jittery target. Most citizens do not have or have ever seen a U.S. passport. Well, I have. Upon receiving the screen shot of the passport, I immediately knew it was fake for three reasons. (I’m not showing the whole picture to protect the real soldier’s name and photo that was used to create this fake passport.)

Passports Must Have a Person’s Signature

#1 The passport did not have a signature. Notice that the person’s first name is actually typed. There are no irregularities in any letter in the name Glenn. The two n’s are identical.

#2 U.S. passports do not have red measles spots. Wavy red and white stripes, yes.

#3. Date of birth and other required information was not on the photo page.

When M.A. saw the discrepancies she was heartbroken but admitted the passport and her friend were a scam.

Just in time I warned her not to send any money to Glenn or anyone helping him trying to transfer funds, should they ask. The very next email from M.A.’s friend requested $900 dollars so a package could be shipped to her by the United Nations Information Service.

Researching romance scams I found that “elderly people are particularly vulnerable to losing large sums in these schemes, according to the Federal Trade Commission.”

Additionally, here are some tips for lonely singles to help spot bogus suitors:

Never send money or gifts to a sweetheart you haven’t met in person.
Talk to someone you trust about this new love interest. In the excitement about what feels like a new relationship, we can be blinded to things that don’t add up. Pay attention if your friends or family are concerned.
Take it slowly. Ask questions and look for inconsistent answers. Try a reverse-image search of the profile pictures. If they’re associated with another name or with details that don’t match up, it’s a scam.
Learn more at ftc.gov/imposters.
Help stop these scammers by reporting suspicious profiles or messages to the dating or social media site.
Also report the scam to the FTC at FTC.gov/complaint.

(In this case, I reported the scam to the U.S. Passport Office, which confirmed my assessment.)

Hopefully, my and M.A.’s experience may help you recognize how easy it is to become vulnerable on the Internet when a heart is yearning for a companion.

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From: Author Ed Mitchell

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I can now share this blog without risking the safety of others

Earlier this year I reported a huge security lapse at an entertainment event that more than 50,000 people annually attend. Please understand that I have good reason to not specify the event’s name, the city, or state which it was held in, nor the month the event occurred. And none of the photos presented in this blog are of the event.

I’m sharing this to provide insights into the Homeland Security phrase: If you see something, say something. As well as, help readers appreciate that even when security professionals try to provide crowd/event safety — they often can’t cover every vulnerability and sometimes they make mistakes.

Years of spotting security vulnerabilities:  As an infantry officer I was trained to lead by example so my soldiers would know I would never ask them to do anything I wouldn’t do.

After Middle East terrorists began small-scale bomb attacks, I tried to understand how did Muslim terrorist commanders talk their foot soldiers into committing suicide missions that they would not do. Especially, bombings that had zip impact on the outcome of the religious war against Western nations.

Big events have big vulnerabilities

I concluded that America would remain safe until it faced a terrorist general as competent as U.S. generals trained to perform winning campaigns.

First, select a strategic goal to change the outcome of the war. Second, mass on the battlefield the needed men and material to accomplish the goal. Third, train the troops to tactically perform the mission using the supplied material / weapons / explosives.

I decided to alert people to such a situation. To do that I set out to write a book series and the third book would be a story about a terrorist general who causes a bad day for America. Silly me. I didn’t know how long it would take to get published.

Gold Fire: Nuclear missile strike on the U.S.

During the years that I wrote and got the first two books published, I looked for security vulnerabilities as I traveled around the country as research for the third book. It became a habit for me to look for security vulnerabilities at stores, building, warehouses, storage yards, drinking-water systems, government facilities, airports, public events, etc. I even reported to airport officials three such vulnerabilities at a California airport.

Unfortunately, by the time I was halfway through drafting my third thriller the world of terrorism changed. Osama bin Laden and his operations officer Sheik Kahlid unleashed their attack in New York City. It proved bin Laden was an effective general. September 11, 2001 was a very bad day for America

Within 24-hours the FBI issued a warning to agriculture communities that terrorists might try to use crop-duster aircraft to spray poison on cities. I was amazed. I had written that very attack scheme in my third thriller. That’s when I realized that over the years I had become really good at spotting vulnerabilities. Plus, I could not release my story about terrorists striking inside our borders because I might reveal too many of our vulnerabilities. Instead, later I released Gold Fire where terrorists threaten America with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles launched from overseas.

What I Recently found:  While on a trip across America, I reached a city and learned in the local newspaper that an event I had always wanted to attend was going to occur the next day. Yippie! Let’s have some fun.

Stadiums and field locations need security

Because I had never been in that town, and knowing thousands of cars and buses would show up, I bought tickets that afternoon and scouted my preferred parking area and entry gate. I also verified the earliest gate-opening time.

The next day, to avoid getting stuck in a mass of traffic, I arrived at the parking area shortly before the schedule opening time. This was my first mistake.

I showed the security fellow my entry ticket but was told the folks selling parking tickets for visitors hadn’t arrived yet. “Don’t worry”, he said, and directed me to turn my twenty-foot-long Class-B recreation vehicle left into an open parking lot, while he returned to handling the line of vehicles behind me.

Class-B RV that was not inspected

It turned out that the “earliest parking time” I had been told was for participants, vendors, and media crews. So, now I was in the vendor parking area. A hundred people scheduled to work the booths selling all types of food, supplies, and souvenirs flowed out of the parking lot into the event area. TV crews also arrived and started their positioning.

I decided to scout a good viewing spot inside the venue. To my surprise, there was no security at the gate where vendors were going into and out of the event area. After talking to a TV reporter about where to find good seats, I  found a great place to enjoy the event. Then I returned to my RV, and with my girlfriend carried armfuls of drinks and blankets back to the perfect viewing spot.

Having fun. Feeling safe.

Within a few hours we were surrounded by more than 50,000 other wild and crazy people, all having a grand time. The weather was perfect. The entertainment was wonderful. Even leaving the event along with thousands of other vehicles was easy.

It was only after driving out of town that I realized what a dim bulb I had been. I had stumbled upon a vulnerability that a domestic or foreign terrorist could easily exploit. But because I felt safe and was focused on having a fun time, I did not think about informing a guard that no security person was at the vendor gate. That was my second mistake.

I felt sick that if I had been a terrorist I could have carried a backpack bomb inside, or one stuffed in a cooler. Also, because no one looked inside my RV, I could have driven in with barrels of gas in my vehicle. So, the worst-case scenario could have been a bomb going off inside the event, forcing a crowd of people to escape into the parking lots, where a bigger RV-bomb explosion would mow them down. So, I tracked down the event manager an reported the security vulnerability so he could eliminate it before the next major event-day.

A Better Way: Should you attend an event in the future, hopefully you will avoid my self-absorbed behavior of being too complacent. And should you see something, say something, far more quickly than I did. Maybe the Homeland Security motto should be: if you see something, quickly say something. Also realize that you are only asking a security person to investigate your concerns. If there is no problem, there is no harm. But if a threat is detected, you helped protect innocent people.

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Every Paradise Has Thorns

Many people living in California think it is paradise despite drought, flash floods, mudslides, windstorms, earthquakes, and wildfires.

Now, after years of drought turned the California landscape and vegetation brittle brown, rain has returned. Fortunately, it’s falling so often and so heavy that the intermittent streams are back, racing down the canyons to stain Monterey Bay.

Before night arrives, I look out my office window satisfied with the now lush-green pastures. But I want the rains to end and the wide stream to subside. The soft soil needs relief so the pastures can dry enough that my neighbor’s horses can visit and fatten up. They and I need sunshine.

Meanwhile, I procrastinate from editing my next thriller. But later, after receiving the pushy publisher’s email I decide to work through the night. I should not complain. Jack just wants more chapters finished so he can get the manuscript printed on schedule.

Working late – Image by Myriams-Fotos at Pixabay.com

By six a.m. I’m close to being finished. It’s then that I hear a this-isn’t-right sound. Earthquake? Instantly, I do the California-freeze, common to anyone who’s lived in the state for a few years, while my mind waits for the unexpected.

BOOM. The house, windows, and my chair really shake. Oh crap! Is there going to be another shock?

Will it be bad? – Image by Angelo Giordano

After several seconds I relax. No. Just a short one! Safe again I go back to work. Jack will be happy about my focus staying on the book.

An hour later the sun is brightening the pastures turning today into a great day. In the kitchen, while the microwave warms my cup of coffee, I slide open the window blind to enjoy the view of my backyard.

Noooooooo!

I can’t see out. A mass of leaves and limbs are crushed against the window. My huge valley oak must have fallen. That’s what shook the house when it slammed down. Staring at the window I worry. How bad is this going to be?

Fallen 80-year-old oak

Outside I discover that drought, rain, winds, and shaky ground finally snapped the 80-year-old giant’s three-foot-diameter trunk, dropping it partially onto my house.

A couple of hours with the chainsaw and I remove most of the small limbs. Then I recognize that my previous trimming of the old oak has paid off. Most of the tree’s mass fell beside and not directly onto the house.

A big task ahead.

No punctured roof. No splintered walls. No broken windows. No cracked sidewalk or displaced retaining wall. Only a mangled rain gutter and a demolished railing above the patio. Now, I just face hours of work to cut and drop the large branches. Sweat and hard work will clear away the debris.

So this is a great day. The house isn’t damaged and the sun is shining.

I hope your day is also great. Please share this blog with your social media friends.

Autographed award-winning thrillers and ebooks available at my website

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All Titles are available as an  autographed physical copy or in your favorite ebook format (Kindle, Nook, Apple, etc) and if you wish an autographed book click the cover below, then select “Add to Cart”.

Book-6 Preview It

From: Author Ed Mitchell

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Free ARC for 50 Goodreads Thriller Readers

Graduate student Hank Cameron is the most hated and most hunted man in the Middle East. Framed by Sheik Sarraf for stealing a religious relic that could inflame or end warfare around the world, he is isolated in Jordan. A dead or alive bounty has been issued for his capture. Agents of the Vatican, the Israeli Mossad, and Muslim terrorists, all want what he has. Where to hide? Who to trust? Can he survive? Will the world?

Email me now to receive a free advanced reader copy (ARC) ebook of The Destiny Relic. In return, by 30 October, please let your Goodreads friends know what you think of the fourth story in my award winning series of adventure / international thrillers.

Amman, Jordan

In advance I’d like to thank you for being an ARC reader for me. It’s taken some time to publicly become active on Goodreads since my wife passed.

Autographed award-winning thrillers and ebooks available at my website

Encourage your social media friends to sign up for one or more of my blogs

All Titles are available as an  autographed physical copy or in your favorite ebook format (Kindle, Nook, Apple, etc) and if you wish an autographed book click the cover below, then select “Add to Cart”.

Book-6 Preview It

From: Author Ed Mitchell

Click to contact me direct

(Also on GoodReads)

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