Stephen Roney's Blog, page 119
September 14, 2022
Underwater
There is a lot of opposition online to the new Disney trailer for a live-action remake of “The Little Mermaid.” Last I checked, it had over 1.5 million “down votes.”
My initial reaction is surprise. There is so little to the trailer; so there seems little to object to. Just a lot of underwater scenery, then a closeup of Ariel singing a few bars of a song, from a sitting position. No hint of action, character, or plot.
That may be the problem: there is so little here. Comments seem to emphasize this, ironically, by referring to the part they liked best, yet citing dialogue not in the trailer. The point is: there is nothing here.
Yes, Ariel in the clip is black. Who cares? What colour is a mermaid’s skin?
With the framing, Disney seems to offer no other reason to see the film but to see Ariel as black. That, however you cut it, is dull, an insult to the audience’s intelligence, and offensively racist.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 11, 2022
More on Residential Schools
Tom Flanagan points out that nobody has ever actually done research to determine whether the Indian Residential Schools did any harm. Nobody has compared the life outcomes of those who attended with those native children who never attended. Why not?
As with the “mass graves,” the powers that be simply want a particular narrative, and will ignore or suppress any evidence that does not support it.
British Confirmation of Ukrainian Gains
Poilievre Takes the Canadian Conservative Leadership
The good news continues to build. Pierre Poilievre has won the Tory leadership with over 68% of the vote.
The talking heads on CBC of course insist that he cannot win an election. He has to “pivot to the centre,” and his positions have been too radical to do that.
But if he is going to pivot to the centre, what was the point in dropping Erin O’Toole? What was the point of electing O’Toole instead of McKay? What is the point of voting Conservative instead of Liberal? What is the point of even voting? Do we all just leave it to the entrenched elite and the deep state to carry on as they have always carried on, without any awkward disruptions? The particular politicians in power just put a smiley face on the same policies, deluding the people into thinking they have made a choice and have a say.
Pivoting to the centre is not just immoral. It is bad electoral advice for the right or those out of power. The need is to make your point. The need is to lead.
Poilievre seems to be a great communicator. That is the essence of all great leaders. That is the essence of Zelenskyy in the Ukraine today. That was the essence of Winston Churchill. That was the essence of Ronald Reagan, and Margaret Thatcher. That is the essence of Donald Trump. Trump did not win by moving to the centre; he moved the centre to him. He reoriented the public agenda. If you cannot inspire, you cannot lead.
And another secret: you cannot be a great communicator if you have nothing to say. A great communicator must always have a message that sounds startling, new, radical. This was the tragedy of Boris Johnson. With magnificent pipes, after Brexit, he had no message.
Poilievre is a great speaker. He is great, like Thatcher and Reagan, perhaps better, at explaining economic concepts in clear terms. In his speech last night, there was the great illustration of ten loaves of bread, and ten dollars in the economy. Make that twenty dollars, and there are still only ten loaves of bread.
Yes, those he opposes say he sounds harsh. That’s how you always sound if you are winning the argument. To those who are losing, you are always going to seem worse than Hitler. As Harry Truman had it, “I never give them hell. I just tell the truth, and to them it sounds like hell.”
Poilievre is also great at social media, like Trump, so that he can bypass the media gatekeepers. The lack of this talent has hindered Maxime Bernier.
It turns out his wife is also photogenic and great at giving a speech, at least based on her performance last night.
During CBC’s coverage, Chantal Hebert noted that Poilievre is more comfortable in French than any Conservative or PC leader since the later incarnation of Joe Clark. In the leadership vote, he carried every Quebec riding but six, running against a prominent native son. His wife is also fluent in French.
He necessarily has a united and energized party behind him. Nobody’s going to soon start an internal insurrection against someone who commands 68% of the party membership; it would be political suicide. And any party opposition to him is not united: 17% for Aitchison and Charest, on his left, and 14% for Lewis and Baber on his right. Either side would rather see Poilievre than the other.
I rather hope Trudeau is arrogant enough to call a snap election this fall or spring. This would follow the old Stephen Harper playbook of defining an opponent and taking him out before the public got to know him. So he and the Liberal operatives might think this clever.
I think it would be a grave misjudgment of the moment. The Conservatives are all fired up, and it feels like a movement—Poilievremania.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 10, 2022
Postcolonial Poverty
With the death of Queen Elizabeth, much is inevitably being said of the evils of the British Empire.
It is an interesting fact that Columbus discovered the New World the same year that the Spanish finally expelled the Moors. In other words, Spain began its greatest, most glorious era the very year it slipped the yoke of colonization itself.
The Dutch repeated the trick: they built an overseas empire just as they were casting off the Spanish yoke in turn.
The Jews, we know, are notably successful. Within living memory, they were hunted and killed throughout Europe.
In 1930, under the British Empire, India was responsible for 6.42% of world GDP. Five years after independence, it was down to 3.8%. In 2010, it was at 4.2%; it has risen in the last few years to 7.19%.
In other words, places like Africa and South Asia cannot blame their present poverty on having been oppressed three generations ago. Modern American blacks cannot blame their present poverty on slavery a century and a half ago. It does not work like that.
More Good News
Keeping track of the good news: reports from Ukraine suggests major gains against the Russians. At last report, the Ukrainian forces near Kharkov are advancing at a walking pace, twenty kilometers a day. They are through the Russian lines and, for now, moving more or less at will. It looks like blitzkrieg.
I would have thought this impossible with modern missile weaponry—unless, that is, the Russians are out of missiles. It is possible the Ukrainians will soon cut off up to 20,000 Russian troops. They have fled so fast the Ukrainians are capturing large caches of weapons and ammunition intact.
If Russian morale is as low as has sometimes been reported, this might lead to general collapse—on the front lines, and perhaps, in Moscow.
It is all going better than could have been expected.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 9, 2022
Signs in the Sky
I'm not sure whether I find this significant or not.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.Justice Denied
Andrew Klavan makes a point I have been waiting to hear someone make for some time. Although Bill Cosby is a serial rapist, he did not get into legal trouble for being a serial rapist. He got into legal trouble for expressing conservative views. Up to the moment he did, he was perfectly free to rape as many women as he liked. But he called for social responsibility, and so went to prison post haste.
Unlike all the folks on Jeffrey Epstein’s list of clients. Unlike whoever offed Jeffrey Epstein. Unlike Hunter Biden. Unlike the Clintons.
These are only a few example of how politically perverted the justice system is, in the US or in Canada. The guy who recently stabbed ten people to death in Saskatchewan, and wounded another fifteen or more, had been released on parole after 59 convictions, some for violent offenses. Although in violation of parole, he had been at large for three months. Tamara Lich, by contrast, was denied bail having never been convicted of any offense, and having been charged only with mischief. She simply had the wrong political opinions. A nationwide manhunt was called for her over supposedly violating her bail conditions, a bogus claim, even though she was sitting in her sister’s home all that time.
Many of the people who wandered into the Capitol Building on January 6, 2021, are still in detention, without trial. Few who participated in the looting, killing and burning of the summer of 2020 have been charged. For they did not support Trump.
The essence of justice is equal protection under law. Biased application of the laws had much to do with the rise of the Nazis in Weimar Germany.
Our current system is not a justice system. It is an injustice.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
The Double Rainbow
And God said, “This is the sign of the covenant I am making between me and you and every living creature with you, a covenant for all generations to come: I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it will be the sign of the covenant between me and the earth. Whenever I bring clouds over the earth and the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will remember my covenant between me and you and all living creatures of every kind. Never again will the waters become a flood to destroy all life. Whenever the rainbow appears in the clouds, I will see it and remember the everlasting covenant between God and all living creatures of every kind on the earth.”
A double rainbow appeared in the sky as Queen Elizabeth died. As a monotheist, I must believe this is significant. While many things look grim, we may be on the verge of a golden age.
One cheerful note: Ukraine seems to be succeeding in their counterattacks. Imagine them pushing the Russians out. Then imagine the possible consequences inside and outside Russia. Imagine this as a civil war, between democrats and autocrats. Imagine Russia going democratic, as did the other countries of Central and Eastern Europe after the fall of the Iron Curtain. Isn’t this the inevitable march of history? Imagine a Europe that includes Russia.
Britain has a new prime minister. For all we know, Liz Truss may turn out to be an especially good one. Margaret Thatcher wasn’t Margaret Thatcher either, before she became Margaret Thatcher. She is making the right noises.
In a day or two, the Canadian Conservatives will have a new leader, almost surely named Pierre Poilievre. Poilievre has stirred up a lot of excitement. Remember Trudeaumania? We are seeing something like that now. This means people are hopeful again and full of energy for Canada’s future. We saw such an outburst of hope too in the Freedom Convoy. Since we have a minority government, an election might be forced at any time, and the worst rascals swept away.
King Charles III is not immediately popular. People blame him for the breakup with Diana; I have always thought he got a bum rap. His relative unpopularity may give him the humility to shut up: the sole necessity to do a good job at his peculiar post. If he can do this, people will warm to him. And the transition after so long a reign feels like a new beginning.
The American midterms are coming up, and the Republicans stand a fair chance of taking both houses. This could end the mad inflationary spending we have been seeing. Investigations could be opened into the corruption of the Biden family, the FBI, and the Deep State. In the days of Watergate, with the Presidency diminished, even before Nixon’s resignation, senators and representatives took up much of the role of leading the public debate. That may happen again, and Biden fade into irrelevance.
The media landscape is shifting quickly in the US. CNN is firing all their ideologues. Warner Brothers and Netflix seem to be awakening from wokeness. New “woke” movies and TV shows seem to be bombing badly. Fox News is dominating the airwaves. Daily Wire is growing daily more powerful. Joe Rogan is moving daily further to the right. There is a tipping point, and things can change suddenly once “everybody knows” something new.
Things are crumbling in China. Many are alarmed at the effect this could have on the world economy. But if this causes the CCP to fall, the longer term geopolitical effect could be much better—like the fall of the Soviet Union. And I expect it to fall. Over the longer term, there is no way central planning can do better than market forces.
If it does not fall, it is going to stall. The magic of development will move on to Southeast Asia, India, and Africa. Where now it is more needed, and can do more good.
We are facing energy crises in Europe and in California, and no doubt other places. Bad as this may be over the coming winter, it may also discredit the “global warming” hysteria and usher in more sensible energy policies.
And if the world is desperate for oil, we have lots in Canada. This ought to be good news locally. The energy crisis is entirely artificial, and so it should be easily fixed. Now maybe we will build the GD pipelines, the refineries, start fracking in the UK, build new nuclear plants, and stop wasting money tilting at windmills.
There seems to be a housing crash in progress. While this is destabilizing, housing prices have grown unrealistically high. It is a good thing if they come down. Speculators have been investing in real estate when it would have been better economically to invest in productive industries.
We seem to be through the pandemic. I have said from the start that, once this happens, we will quickly forget all about it as though it never happened. I think we are already starting to do so.
Since the pandemic was an extraordinary event, it should have little lasting economic effect. The bounce back should recover the lost ground, over the next few years. This seems to have been the case after the Spanish flu. That it has not yet is a measure of the incompetence of current governments. Incompetence, or malice.
If our governments and elites have been showing incompetence and behaving badly, they have probably always been incompetent and behaved badly. What is new is that we are seeing it clearly, thanks to improved technology. The first step to solving a problem is seeing it. Things may not be getting worse, except for the elites—they are getting better. The leviathan is thrashing about; but these may be death throes. The Freedom Convoy suggests that we can run things better without them.
Pope Francis has been hinting at retirement. Cynics are saying this would make no difference, since he has chosen most of the cardinals who would vote on his replacement. But historically, conclaves elect someone the opposite of the previous pope, particularly if their papacy seemed troubled. Even if the cardinals are cynical careerists, this would make sense to them. They will want someone who is convincing on doctrine.
Unfashionable as it may be to say so, our route out of this or any mess is spiritual revival. We need to recover our bearings. That means, for most of the world, Christianity. There are glimmers of a spiritual revival in the American pop culture. There are rumours that, if the lid came off, there would be massive conversions to Christianity in China, as there have been in Korea since the lid came off postwar. There are rumours of massive conversions to Christianity in Iran. There are massive conversions to Christianity in Africa. From a distance, it is obvious to these cultures that Christianity is the key to everything.
When the spirit descends, dramatic changes can be almost instantaneous. Situations that look hopeless can turn around.
That may be what the double rainbow promises.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
