Stephen Roney's Blog, page 116
September 29, 2022
Tiny Bubbles... In the Baltic
Many talking heads are saying Russia is behind the Nordstream pipeline sabotage. And, whoever did it, it is being called a “terrorist act.”
Seems to me this is a classic example of the general principle that when they decide to lie, people will assert the very opposite of the truth.
Russia has no motive to blow up their own infrastructure and source of income.
And “terrorism” is the use of terror to achieve a political goal. If nobody takes responsibility for the act, and we can only guess at the motive, this is not, by definition, terrorism.
I have seen the argument that this protects Russia from financial liability for cutting off gas supply to Germany. But they had already cut off supply to Germany. If necessary for legal purposes, they could use the excuse of generator problems, for example, without actually damaging their future earnings.
What is the benefit to Russia, in any case, of cutting off gas supply to Germany? Germany loses, but they lose too. The only value is to pressure Germany to stop sending aid to Ukraine. For this, two things are essential: Germany must know that the lack of oil or gas is due to sending weapons to Ukraine, and Russia must be able to turn the supply back on if Germany stops sending weapons to Ukraine.
Blowing the pipeline anonymously fails on both these counts. Instead, now Russia has lost its ability to pressure Germany. And, after the war, Russia is going to have a much more difficult time getting back on its feet.
That leaves the US as the likeliest suspect.
If so, this was a profoundly reckless act, probably a war crime, and to some extent a betrayal of allies. Which is why the US is not taking responsibility for it.
I expect this truth will out, or already be out, on the Internet and in government channels, if never acknowledged to the general public.
There will be hell to pay for the US in international prestige, and this ought to be an impeachable act.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 28, 2022
Some Speculations on the Nordstream Pipline Explosions
Back in the Saddle Again
Xi has re-emerged in China, apparently fully in control.
My guess is a failed coup attempt behind the scenes. But who knows?
September 27, 2022
Sabotage in the Baltic Sea
ReutersIn our latest reports from the apocalypse, the Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 pipelines have both sprung leaks at the same moment.
There seems to be no question that this is an act of sabotage. And no one but a “state actor” could do it. A state actor with significant naval capabilities.
I say it was either the Americans or the British, probably using a submarine.
No immediate problem for German supply, since the pipelines were barely in operation. But makes it harder for Russian supply to resume in the near future.
Seems to me it’s a way to hurt Russia. It also helps the US’s oil and gas industry, because they can theoretically replace Russia as supplier. Canada can as well.
I imagine Germany or Denmark, near whose waters it happened, have to be unhappy about it. At least for public consumption. Hence the need for stealth mode.
Why now? Perhaps in retaliation for the Russia callup of reserves. Perhaps as a shot across the bow in response to Putin’s threat to use nuclear weapons.
Others suggest it was Russia. I don't see the motive.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 26, 2022
The Matriarchy Strikes
Delacroix, "Liberty Leading the People" Protests are happening now in many places. The golden thread that connects us with our governments has broken. The social contract has broken. Not just in one or two countries, but in many, most, maybe all. All hell is about to break loose.
In many places, these protests seem to be led by women. In Iran, the focus of the protests is the demand to wear the hijab, which only affects women; and it is the death of a young woman in police custody. In Dagestan, and elsewhere in the Russian federation, it is mostly women protesting in the streets. There is a practical reason for this: young men protesting will be hauled off to the front lines in Ukraine. Young men are keeping out of sight. In the US, suburban moms are showing up in droves at school board meetings, alarmed at what their children are being taught. If this group swings decisively away from the Democrats, they are doomed.In Italy, a woman has just won election as prime minister. She leads a party supposedly further to the right than any previous postwar government; a protest movement. In Canada, a woman, Tamara Lich, organized and led the Freedom Convoy in February. A woman towards the right of that party is now running the UK Conservatives.
The women in particular are rebelling. What does it mean?
In the normal course of things, women prefer security to freedom. They want peace and order. This means they are the natural allies of government and continuity. When women rebel, it is especially significant. And the men naturally defer to them.
You might protest that feminism is a radical movement, hardly in favour of the established order, and we have been living with that for ages. But feminism was never radical, never against government and never against the established order. Feminists were never wild in the streets. Instead, feminism has always demanded bigger government and more social control. It was, moreover, always a movement of the upper and middle classes; bored suburban housewives. Those already in control. And it was, from the start, enthusiastically endorsed and supported by government and the establishment. Nobody ever fired at a feminist in the street. Nobody ever even prosecuted one—at least until Johnny Depp.
It therefore says a great deal when women are genuinely out in the streets, and protesting government and the established social order. Women are the glue that holds society together. They are the natural supports of government. If they are in opposition, society as a whole has turned. Women always get to decide.
I have said before that the crisis point in any revolution is when the military is called out to disperse the crowd, and they refuse. Then government has lost control.
But there is an earlier and almost as important crisis point: when that crowd is largely women.
The army, being male, is particularly unlikely to fire on women. They are likely to join with them instead. Women rule. If the soldiers do fire on women, all hell breaks loose. If men die, even a lot of men, nobody much cares. If women die, it is intolerable to most people, men and women. Now the population will be impossible to control.
So once the crowd is mostly women, the government is doomed.
The Russian Revolution in 1917 happened when the women rioted for bread. The Imperial troops would not fire on them; the Czar fell.
In the EDSA revolution in the Philippines, in 1986, the crucial moment came when the marines were sent in tanks to break up the crowd. A line of nuns knelt in their way. They halted. The army and air force began to defect en masse.
In Argentina in 1980, the “Mothers of the Plaza de Mayo” pulled down the military junta. They could not be dispersed.
Examples could be multiplied.
When the women are in the streets, the regime is likely to fall. It has lost any regime’s essential support.
We are seeing that happen now.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
September 25, 2022
Latest from China
This time from a fairly authoritative source...
SOMETHING is going on.
Mysteries of the Hundred-Acre Wood
Preferred pronoun: "xi"Is something going on in China? There is still no indication in the mainstream press; just rumours on Twitter.
That does not mean nothing is happening. It took a week before the mainstream acknowledged the protests currently going on in Iran. The Clinton-Lewinsky affair was first leaked on Drudge Report. For two years, the mainstream media refused to acknowledge the Hunter Biden laptop story.
This is not, at least in this case, a rap on traditional journalism. It is irresponsible to report unsubstantiated rumours. It is hard to know what is really happening in Iran, or in the Chinese government. It is expensive to find out; and it is all happening far away.
These days, however, for good or ill, we still hear the unsubstantiated rumours, whether the legitimate press picks up on them or not.
Sometimes such rumours are true; where there’s smoke, there is often fire.
I think some power struggle is indeed ongoing in China. That’s little more than a gut instinct. It makes sense that it would, given China’s economic turmoil, the upcoming party congress expected to confirm Xi in power forever, recent harsh convictions of some of his rivals, and his recent trip abroad.
Chinese leaders have a habit of being deposed while they are on a trip abroad. A rash of harsh convictions of rivals can trigger a Robespierre effect—get rid of the tyrant before he comes for you too. By taking such total control and encouraging a personality cult, Xi has taken responsibility for whatever goes wrong. If things are really bad, the quick fix is to scapegoat him. And then there is the Julius Caesar effect: stab him before he makes himself emperor, and becomes too powerful.
I think the cancelled flights are confirmed by reputable sources. I see the videos of long military columns heading towards Beijing. Perhaps nothing has come out publicly, because the end is still in doubt. Nobody has anything yet to announce.
Xi may still be in the game. Or it may still be unclear who replaces him.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
Lazarus and Job
The reading at mass was the story of Dives and Lazarus. Yet the sermon was on Job. The gospel reading was taken merely as a warning that bad things can happen to good people. We must not always expect sunny skies.
This was only half right, and being half right, wrong. It is at least an antidote to the demonic idea of the gospel of prosperity, and the “happy happy joy joy” form of Christianity. But it is not the point of the story. It ignores Dives in hell, and does not explain why Lazarus suffers in this life, or why Dives does in the next.
In the story, suffering is not random--it actually isn’t random in the Book of Job either. Job is sent suffering BECAUSE he is a righteous man. Suffering in this world is a mark of God’s favour.
“Woe to you who are rich,
for you have already received your comfort.
Woe to you who are well fed now,
for you will go hungry.
Woe to you who laugh now,
for you will mourn and weep.
Woe to you when everyone speaks well of you,
for that is how their ancestors treated the false prophets.”
(Luke 6: 24-6)
Conversely, blessed are the poor. Blessed are those who mourn. Blessed are the persecuted.
Abraham explains to the rich man: “Son, remember that in your lifetime you received your good things, while Lazarus received bad things, but now he is comforted here and you are in agony.”
Not necessarily that Dives is being punished for being rich. That would not seem fair; although lack of charity is worthy of such punishment. But compare Lazarus: there is nothing to say he has done any thing to deserve heaven, either--it is a pure reward for his suffering. Suffering in this life must be seen as a sign of God’s favour. God sends us only the crosses we can bear, and Dives was not strong enough to bear any cross.
As St. Ignatius says, if God sends you suffering, it means he wants to make you a saint.
'Od's Blog: Catholic comments on the passing parade.
Girls Just Want to Have Fun
The notorious story of the transgender teacher in Toronto that is now getting international coverage may not be what it seems. A tweet suggests this is a guy who was getting pressure from the administration for not being woke enough, so he is trying to troll them.
This is more believable to me than a transvestite shop teacher who wants to wear cartoonish prosthetic breasts.
