Daniel Miessler's Blog, page 30

My Prediction For Twitter

I’m a bit Elon and Twittered out, but I want to capture a basic prediction about all the shenanigans.

As for my take on things, I will just say that Elon miscalculated a number of things in his handling of the transition. I think he thought his actions would be better received. But he fired a lot of people, all at once, so he should have anticipated the blowback.

And I think he’s seriously messing up by selling blue checkmarks without verification. They keep saying verification as if it applies to the new checkmark, but it doesn’t. He has somewhat fixed that with this tweet, but that’s just a band-aid on the larger problem.

Going forward, any Twitter handles engaging in impersonation without clearly specifying “parody” will be permanently suspended

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2022

Anyway, that’s not what I wanted to talk about. Here’s my overall prediction for the way things are about to go.

Many people—especially Elon-haters—will continue to thrash regarding his takeover, with everything he does being attacked. This will last for around a month or two.As Musk settles in, he’s going to start actually shipping the features he has been promising, and people will be extremely happy that he’s improving the service they love so much.This will include employees, who will now be getting “you’re the best of the best” talk from Elon in addition to “this is an emergency” talk, and their pride will be higher than it’s been in a long time because they’re shipping features that people loveIn 4-6 months Twitter will be significantly better. Better fact-checking. Better features for creators. And a bunch of other features that the previous team had no chance of shipping.All the haters will become increasingly quiet, kind of pretending their outbursts never happened, even though people do have many solid reasons to complain right now.

In short, all this pushback will largely be eclipsed by Twitter’s new momentum, and the largely good will that comes from it.

There’s one caveat, however, which is not a small one. If he brings back Trump, Alex Jones, and those types, I—and many others—are going to lose our collective shit. I’d be ok if he gave them one last chance or something, and then had the ban hammer ready as soon as they incited hate or spread harmful information again. Which would take roughly a day or two.

But if he just brings them back, and lets them go on leading conspiracies and hate mobs, he will have caused great harm to the US and I’d argue the planet. He needs to find the way to thread the needle of promoting the communication of unpopular ideas without letting in the garbage. And I hope he learns sooner rather than later how hard that is.

Twitter’s Blue Checkmark Strategy Reduces Trust in Pursuit of Revenue

When I heard that Twitter was going to open the blue checkmark up to anyone willing to pay $8/month, I was happy.

As a legacy holder of the checkmark there’s a slight band-aid-sting of the check indicating specialness—who doesn’t want to feel special?—but I’d much rather see a mutual platform benefit than sit atop a dungheap. And giving everyone verification is a clear platform benefit. So I’m for it.

Apparently Twitter's new verification won't require any identity verification, just a monthly payment. If that's the case we're going to see an influx of criminals buying accounts with stolen credit cards to engage in spam and impersonation. https://t.co/NyMvswErni

— Marcus Hutchins (@MalwareTechBlog) November 3, 2022

Keep in mind this reporting could be wrong and verification could still be part of the plan.

Except, no, it doesn’t look like they’re opening up verification. According to this analysis above they’re:

Removing verificationRemoving the validation of being a public persona Charging $8/month for it

I guess you could argue that Twitter having money will meta-help Twitter in the future.

So we haven’t gained anything for the community. In fact I’d argue we’ve lost a lot. One of the biggest features of the blue check—not just on Twitter but on any social media platform—is disambiguation from copycats. If the analysis above is true and correct, we lose that. Now it’s just blue checks everywhere.

Which would be fine if that was the case for validated non-public people—the more the better. But they’re not validated. In sum, this is less validation, and more blue checks. Seemingly all in the name of revenue.

If this is true, the effects will be:

Malicious actors paying negligible costs to attain credibility with their victimsDevaluation of the checkmark (it used to mean you were confirmed to be a real human, at least)Some more revenue for Twitter

I don’t believe #3 makes #1 or #2 worth it, and it looks like we’re about to find out.

Reverse Transcription

There are dozens of reasons to be bullish on AI right now, especially in the GPT space where we have AIs producing so much extraordinary art. But I’m excited about something else that we’re naturally evolving GPT into, which I’m calling Reverse Transcription.

A bit of background

Right now there’s a massive push towards content creation and content creators. Millions of people are either watching people on TikTok or YouTube or Twitter or Substack, and many of them—especially young people—are thinking they want that to be their career.

MKBHD doing his thing

But there’s a chasm between those who can write, vs. those who can also make a podcast, vs. those who can also make videos. And then there’s the unicorn people who can do all of that, but they also feature themselves in the videos in addition to having the best production in the world. That’s people like MKBHD.

So, you know how GPT-3 can create images from text? Well it can also do that with video. Here’s a company that’s doing this commercially already, called Synthesia.

That’s an avatar speaking the text that you give it. And it looks like a real person.

Now imagine MKBHD doing that, but passing along what his studio background looks like, and what kind of t-shirt he’s wearing, and what stylization he wants in the video.

The future of video production

One of my professional videos with my RED camera and Neumann mic, wearing one of my merch shirts, speaking in my most energetic voice, excited, optimistic

So you pass it a script that you want it to read, along with this prompt, and a few seconds later you have a full video. With bokah, with all the details that make it look like your own set. And the avatar on the screen looks exactly like you. The speech. The mannerisms. Everything.

How? Because you pointed it to all your previous videos, and it just figured out what “youness” actually means.

The UL Newsletter: Finding the Patterns in the Noise…Get a weekly analysis of what's happening in security and tech—and why it matters.

What’s so crazy about this is that if you need to cut a word out, add a sentence, or whatever, you just edit the script and resend it. Even better, you can change what you’re wearing, change the studio, or put yourself speaking from the beach.

The hard parts of video production become easy, which will bring all the focus back to the content iself.

As the AI improves it’ll do the prompt engineering as well.

Of course there will still be people who are better and worse at doing this. People better and worse at using these tools. Etc. And just like with AI Art, the people who are best at it are those who actually know how to make the stuff organically. But that will be more true towards the beginning. The better the tech gets the more that gap will close.

What we’re about to see is extraordinary.

The ability to go from text to a perfect podcast, or a perfect YouTube video. Without any audio or video work being done by the creator.

Think of how much new content is about to be created. And how it’s going to fundamentally change the creator space.

NO. 355 | NEWS & ANALYSIS SERIES

SECURITY NEWS

⛔️ There is likely to be a critical TLS vulnerability released this week. Consider getting your teams ready by looking for your instances before it drops. ZDNET | GLOBALSIGN | REDDIT DISCUSSION 

The US accused 13 Chinese nationals of committing espionage-related offenses for China, including attempting to force a Chinese national in the US to return to China, attempting to interfere with a federal investigation of Huawei, and attempting to recruit US academics to spy for China. MORE

The Daily Mail says Russia hacked Liz Truss's personal phone and gained access to extremely sensitive conversations with Kwasi Kwarteng and others. MORE

The second-largest investor in Twitter—after Musk—is Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Holding Company (KHC), with shares valued at $1.8 billion. MORE

Apple has significantly upgraded its security research program, speeding up its turn-around times and adding more transparrency for submission statuses. MORE

University of Maryland made a sweater that confuses AI into not recognizing a person. MORE

DHL has surpassed LinkedIn as the most spoofed phishing brand. MORE

The New York Post got hacked, resulting in defamatation of the site and their social media. Someone named Thrax claimed credit and said they got access via WordPress. MORE

Juniper patched high-severity flaws in Junos OS that affect enterprise networking devices. MORE

CrowdStrike has partnered with MITRE CTID to find attacker TTPs in cloud analytics. MORE

Samba released security updates for issues up to and including system takeover. MORE

Apple's new Ventura release patched over 100 vulnerabilities. MORE

TECHNOLOGY NEWS

Layoffs.fyi says the layoffs mostly happened during the summer, and are slowing down. MORE

Shutterstock will start selling AI-generated stock images powered by OpenAI. MORE

Mr. Beast is looking to raise $150 million for a $1.5 billion valuation on…himself. Love it. MORE

Hidden Door is a gaming company that wants to turn fiction into role-playing experiences. MORE

OpenAI invested $500 million in Descript, an AI-based tool for editing audio and video. MORE


HUMAN NEWS

Luis Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) has defeated Bosonaro to become Brazil's president, again, 20 years after being the president the first time. MORE

It looks like the UK wants back into the EU. Rejoining the UK recently had a 14-point lead in a poll. MORE

The US economy grew by 2.6% last quarter. MORE

Teens are starting to use TikTok to figure out what's wrong with them mentally. "I have this." MORE

A record-high 56% in the US believe local crime has increased. MORE


IDEAS & ANALYSIS

 ✍️ Why Apple Keeps Winning MORE


NOTES

Book club was phenomenal this week. We got into a spirited discussion about whether AGI would happen before 2030. 1/3 said it would, and 2/3 either abstained or said it wouldn't. The chosen book of the month for November is The Science of Storytelling. MORE

The aunt of one of our UL members is featured in a podcast called The Lost Women of Science. LISTEN

I got in an uncharacteristic Twitter squabble about Apple on Sunday morning. Someone was attacking me for talking about what Apple is doing right, and he unfollowed me during the discussion. We talked for another hour or so, cooling down the tone, and it went from a scuffle to a conversation. At the end he followed me back, I thanked him for being so passionate for the right things, and I followed him back. The lesson? Civil conversations are still possible on the internet! 🙂 THREAD

I now have lots of birds showing up to my feeder! Thank you all again. And I have two hummingbird feeders now too. And they're getting some traffic as well. Loving it. Next step: Continuous IP Camera + AI bird identification -> Alerting system. Hit me up if you're this kind of nerd.

Absolutely loving The Mars Volta's new album. MORE

Anyone know of a healthy cleanse recipe I can make at home with a Vitamix? HALP

❤️ I met my love 30 years ago today. ❤️


DISCOVERY

🛠️ dastardly, from Burpsuite, is a light-weight web application scanner that you can use to scan your web apps during CI/CD. Integrates with GitHub actions and many others. TOOL | by PORTSWIGGER

🛠️ sandman is a backdoor for red teams that sends traffic over NTP. TOOL | by IDO VELTZMAN

🛠️  private_detector is Bumble's image classifier for lewd images. TOOL | by BUMBLE TECH

🛠️ threatest is a Go framework for end-to-end testing of threat detection. TOOL | by DATADOG

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semafor — A new news service by Ben Smith built on the idea of transparent, unbiased, and center-focused news. Meaning, much less tainted by the right and left narratives. Cool, sign me up. MORE | ABOUT

looka — An AI-based logo generator. You give it your company name and some seed material, and it makes you some logos. MORE

namelix — An AI-based company name generator. You give it some vibes and it comes up with some possible company names.

pfpmaker — An AI-based profile pic generator. You give it an image and it makes you profile pics. MORE

snipd — Listen to AI-generated summaries for Lex Fridman's podcast. MORE

An absolutely packed episode of Lex's podcast, with guest Andrej Karpathy. I particularlly loved his explanations of ML, his points about AGI, his approach to leading organizations, and tons more. Must consume. MORE

Japan's Anime community is seriously upset about the rise of AI-generated art. MORE

The Lost Women of Science — For every Marie Curie or Rosalind Franklin whose story has been told, hundreds of female scientists remain unknown to the public at large. In this series, we illuminate the lives and work of a diverse array of groundbreaking scientists who, because of time, place and gender, have gone largely unrecognized. LISTEN

The Rising Tide of Global Sadness MORE

Is Listening to Audiobooks Really Reading? — The author of this piece makes the point that listening actually came before print, because oral storytelling came before writing. MORE

Jim Cramer cries on TV for recommending META to his audience. MORE

Security is an Infinite Game MORE

The rich are now signaling using statement trees. MORE

passkeys.io — A demo site for enrolling in and using Passkeys. MORE

Don't Overreact to Weak Signals MORE

👀 The Art of the Desk Setup MORE


RECOMMENDATION OF THE WEEK

Don't stress about how much you're learning when you read or watch educational content. Maybe you're only getting X amount of retention, but it's hard to say what that number really is. Plus, learning can sink deep into us and affect how we see the world, which has a lot more impact than remembering facts. If you love a book or some piece of content, watch it again while taking notes, or use it to update a current methodology you're using to do something. But feel free to just listen to it as well, lettting it blow by. You'll likely absorb more than you think.


APHORISM OF THE WEEK

"The two most important days in life are the day you born and the day you find out why."

Mark Twain

No related posts.

Why Apple Keeps Winning

People are blown away that Apple keeps winning while its competitors are floundering. It’s a simple formula.

Make consistently super-high-quality products that work together as part of an ecosystem.

Google and Microsoft have 20X Apple’s losses in the last year.

A staggering $3 trillion in combined market cap has been lost in one year from just 7 companies. @HumOnTheMarkets reports. https://t.co/2eBE6QLp8B pic.twitter.com/qfaAg5Ooyb

— CNBC (@CNBC) October 27, 2022

Other companies are just churning out the latest hardware, which doesn’t maintain consistent design cues, that someone else made, which is not integrated into any sort of long-term vision.

It makes their products utterly forgettable.

Those really are the main components I think:

Consistently high-quality productsProducts that maintain a consistent design languageHaving them all work together as part of an ecosystem vision

Here’s what I wrote about this in 2017. No, wait. 2007. That’s right, before the iPhone launched.

So the iPhone is getting ready to come out in June and I’m hearing a lot of press about how this phone or that phone is better than it already, and that it’s too late for it to make a splash. I disagree. People keep talking about features, and I think they are missing the point. Sure, there will be many people who don’t get an iPhone because it doesn’t have a certain feature (or 5 certain features), but again — I think there’s something else to this.

I think the iPhone is simply going to be superior (demand-wise) to these other offerings despite lacking features such as 3G, a real keyboard, etc. Look at the music player market; there are a number of other players that are “better” than the iPod, but they don’t have the same feel, the same interface, the same…”I don’t know what” that the iPod has.

Why The iPhone Will Dominate But Not Based on Features/Functionality

Notice that “having the newest features” isn’t anywhere in my list or in that prediction. It doesn’t matter.

You know who else doesn’t have the newest features?

RolexStanfordChick-fil-AIn-N-Out BurgerThe Four SeasonsLessons from other industries

iPhone 14 Pro Through a Pair of Dillon Optics Blue Lens Sunglasses

I stayed at Four Seasons in Maui recently.

We hadn’t been there since like 2017 or something. When we drove up it looked the same. Smelled the same. All the restaurants were the same. Breakfast was the same. It was nearly identical to the last time we were there.

I was fucking amazed. Then I started thinking about Rolex, and how they only slightly iterate on their designs. The submariner has looked pretty much the same for nearly a century.

Rolex keeps its design language extremely consistent

What this says to me, in a shouting tone of voice, is that consistency of quality and design is its own feature.

That’s it. That’s the tweet. And Apple isn’t just doing it better than everyone else—they’re basically the only people doing it.

The UL Newsletter: Finding the Patterns in the Noise…Get a weekly analysis of what's happening in security and tech—and why it matters. Vision and ecosystem matter too

The other thing Appe is slowly but steadily making progress on is ecosystem.

It’s hard for Google and Amazon to have an ecosystem because they have too many product lines, and fully half of what they put out is garbage. They do make some great stuff though.

The difference is Apple is plodding. Slowly. And towards a vision. Siri is still lagging, no question. It’s way behind Alexa, and even Google, in many voice-related features. And it has been for years and years.

But remember: it’s not the latest features that win this kind of race. It’s consistency and quality. And, anecdatally, I’m seeing a lot more of my tech friends using their HomeKit more in the last year or so. It’s still way behind in features, but the quality and consistency is starting to show promise. Hopefully.

But beyond HomeKit style ecosystems, there’s also just the pure consumer tech side. There’s no better tech combo in the world than an iPhone and a pair of AirPod Pro 2’s. It’s butter. Same with adding in a Macbook. Oh, and an iPad. Oh, and if someone comes over and needs the wireless password, it prompts me to share it with them transparently.

Like I said. Butter.

Admitting that I’m an Apple fanboy—I’ve camped for every iPhone since 2007—I don’t feel that from any other brand. But I honestly wish I did. When I see Google or Amazon do something cool it gets me excited. I want a worthy competitor on the field.

But right now we basically have Apple making great stuff, consistently, that looks and feels the same, and everyone else just throwing shit at the wall.

They’re not actually chasing Apple’s products. They’re chasing something else that Apple has—which they desperately wish they had as well.

A plan.

NotesBONUS: I’m old enough to remember when Tim Cook destroyed Apple.

Podcast Audio Quality: AI-based Post-processing vs. Hardware

I’ve been podcasting since 2015 and got really into audio when the plague started. Like…too much.

Anyway.

I’ve been obsessed with podcast audio quality for years, and have been through so…many…iterations of my setup. I started with a Yeti (still a great mic). Did the Electrovoice. Did the Shure SM7B. And now I’m using a Neumann U87ai.

You always want the initial recording to be as clean as possible.

But that’s not what matters. What matters is the quality of the chain, especially as you start fixing crap that’s in the original recording.

Here’s the basic rule. The most important rule. Don’t fuck with it.

You want to create as positive an environment as possible for your initial recording. Best mic. Best room. Best room treatment. Best mic position. The least amount of noise. Etc. That’s like 95% of the battle.

The other 85% of the battle is cleaning up the trash that will inevitably happen despite trying really hard on that. Such as de-essing (removing the sibilant, soul-piercing, s-sounds), removing mouth noises, background hisses and hums, etc.

The Rodecaster Pro 2

This is a huge debate in the audiophile world as well.

So that brings us to this post. The traditional wisdom is to do as much of this as possible using hardware. Why? Because hardware is better than software. That’s the thinking anyway. And it was mostly true for a very long time. But we’re seeing that change I think, and not just in audio.

So I got the RODECASTER PRO 2 when it came out. It’s super rad. Love the thing. And I naturally wanted to re-optimize my podcast chain using it. In other words, drop all my software plugins (I use the iZotope stuff, which is excellent).

So I did that, and here’s the result:

The UL Newsletter: Finding the Patterns in the Noise…Get a weekly analysis of what's happening in security and tech—and why it matters. Hardware optimization using the Rodecaster Pro 2

I like that a lot. It’s clean, loud, and solid. But it’s not SUPER clean. I can still hear artifacts in there. If you can’t hear them, listen to this one and you’ll see (👀👂?) it.

Software optimization using iZotope’s software plugins

If you listen to those on big speakers, in your car, and with headphones, you’ll hear that the second one is noticably cleaner.

And again—I’m doing very little to the natural sound of the Neumann U87ai. Just noise gate (for mouth and breathing noises), and a de-esser. And I did the extact same things on the RODECASTER.

I really wanted the hardware to win. I did. But it looks like software is just getting too good.

So if you’re in a similar position, consider doing this:

Turn off EVERYTHING on your hardware. Just have the chain be as clean as possibleTurn on the bass reduction on your mic, if it has that featureUse your favorite audio plugins to apply a noise gate for breathing and mouth noisesUse your favorite audio plugins to take some aggro off your s’s

Don’t EQ it. Don’t add bass. You think it’s cool, but it produces fatigue in the listener and is hard to hear with low-end background noise like in a car or subway. And don’t worry about any other effects either.

Your voice is the instrument. Leave it as natural as possible. Let the mic do the work, and and let the hardware software do the rest.

UL NO. 354 | THE NEWS & ANALYSIS SERIES

SECURITY NEWS

The US has implemented a number of aggressive export controls to stop China from attaining advanced semiconductors. And now it looks like the bans will be expanded to quantum computing and AI as well. NYTIMES | MY ANALYSIS BELOW

It appears Bytedance had a plan to use TikTok to monitor the location of specific American citizens. FORBES | NYPOST | THE REGISTER

NSA is asking companies to evaluate their supply chains and ask themselves what would happen if China attacked Taiwan. MORE

Hacktivists claim to have stolen 100,000 emails about Iran's nuclear program. MORE

The FCC is about to ban all US sales of new Huawei and ZTE gear. MORE

Zoom has patched a high-severity debugging port flaw in its macOS client. MORE | BULLETIN

Microsoft leaked the data of over 65,000 companies due to an internet-facing Azure blob misconfiguration. MORE

There's a critical RCE vulnerability in Cobalt Strike that's now been patched. MORE

The make of IDA Pro, Hex-Rays, has been purchased by European VC firm Smartfin. I just hope they fix that purchasing experience. MORE

Someone cut the fiber optic cables providing internet to multiple cities across France, including parts of Paris and the Lyon region. MORE


TECHNOLOGY NEWS

Someone created a video called "A Year" using Stable Diffusion and their own custom algorithm. We've all seen what AI can do with text and images; now imagine it coming to video. MORE | THE VIDEO THREAD | AN ANIME VERSION

Ubuntu's latest release, Kinetic Kudu, is out at version 22.10. It's focused on IoT developers and enterprise administrators. MORE

There are now robots that can pick and sort strawberries during drought in California, and the company is hoping to branch into other fruits and vegetables. Automation is like a constricting snake: when we breathe in under duress, it tightens its hold. MORE

Musk says Starlink is now ready for airplanes, and it's opening up deliveries for mid-2023. MORE

Researchers out of UT Austin, with money from the US Army, claim to have reverse-engineered Starlink's satellite protocol and made it possible to use the fleet as an alternative GPS system. MORE | PAPER

Musk supposedly wants to cut 75% of Twitter's workforce, which is almost 6,000 people. If true I assume he'd try to target the worst performers, but with this leaking he could end up losing many he'd rather keep. MORE


HUMAN NEWS

The US just lost 26 years of life expectancy progress, dropping by 2.7 years between 2019 and 2021. That's all the progress since 1996. MORE

Researchers at Harvard are under intense scrutiny—including physical safety threats—for removing infant monkeys from their mothers, and in two previous instances, sewing their eyelids shut to see how they learn faces. MORE

The Webb telescope has a new 122MB image of the Pillars of Creation MORE


IDEAS & ANALYSIS

 ✍️ Humiliation is Deadly
"I’ve been thinking for a few years about the danger presented by humiliated people and groups…" READ ONLINE 

 ✍️ AI Art Will Push the Top 1% to Human Artists
"One effect I think we’ll see from all this AI-generated art is magnified status for those who insist on the opposite, i.e., manual, human art…" READ ONLINE 

 ✍️ Generate AI Art Using Your Own Writing
"One of the most challenging parts of finishing a post is coming up with a good image…" READ ONLINE 

US Attacks Chinese Chip Production
The export controls just placed on China for advanced semiconductors are extraordinary. They will slow China for years in their ability to do both advanced computing and to build top-end military technology. Many are saying, however, that this is a bit like provocations before Pearl Harbor, saying it's so big that it could push China into going after Taiwan or otherwise escalating against the US. I am personally ok with that, because I think China has been too brazen in their attacks against the US, especially in the cyber space, with relatively few repercussions. I just hope that the world can break their supply chains out of China as quickly as possible, similar to what Apple is doing, and that it'll force China to chill out and be friendly again. Their aggression is somewhat understandable as a response to The Great Humiliation, but they've overdone it and become a global menace. And I hope this, and other measures like it, help them dial that back. MORE

Is China About to Rise or Fall?
One of the trends I'm reading most about, and listening to experts most about, is the future trajectory of China. There are two main narratives right now: 1) China is about to crush America and become the dominant world power, and 2) China has unbelievable weaknesses right below the surface, and they're about to materialize and hobble the country. Despte having read multiple books about China and its future, and having listened to dozens of hours of experts debating this, I don't feel like I have a good grasp of things. The best thing I feel I have is a good understanding that these are the primary narratives, which I guess is something. The arguments that they're ascending are easy: So many people, so many people getting a good education, they're stealing the world's intellectual property, they're becoming the world's dominant bullies, which they can because they make everything for everyone, and they also have a functioning government that is thinking very long-term about the success of the country (which the US does not have). The arguments for China's fall are far less discussed, but they include a huge problem of not having enough young people, a major real estate crash, and the fact that so many smart young people are not actually in China because they left to the US or Canada or Europe. Which way this will go is one of the most important variables in the world's future right now, as it will significantly determine other major issues such as North Korea, Taiwan, and Russia. MORE

Luxury Surveillance Becomes the Norm
I just read a good article about Luxury Surveillance that definitely resonated. Well, mostly. I think there are many people, especially in the security community, who share his desire not to be tracked. But I'd argue most rich people will be fine with it, as long as it's done to their advantage. To me it's is about tradeoffs. What are the benefits of perfect life tracking and ubiquitous personal surveillance? And what are the downsides? How would you like to know everything about everything around you? Who's near your house, how many times they've been there? Whether they've been reported elsewhere? Whether you're walking into a dangerous neighborhood? Etc. I'd argue that as the tech gets better, the downsides will reduce relative to the upsides—specifically for the top 10% of earners. Those who can pay for it will get all this tracking and monitoring without a lot of the data-broker-drama that comes with it. For the less well-off, they will get that tracking at the cost of their whereabouts and preferences. I don't see the big breach of one's data as a major risk here. Security for these services will be better, just the same as bank and brokerage security is decent for those who use them today. It'll be decent because the rich will demand that it is, and because they also demand to use these technologies. In short, those who are unwilling to share any data will fall in numbers over time. The benefits of providing that data will simply outpace the negatives, and those from the old school who refuse on principle will age out. Hard to imagine, but I think that's where it's going. MORE


NOTES

As I move towards my transition to doing UL full-time, which will include the show, building products, consulting, writing books, and other creative endeavors, my creative forces are spinning up again. I've had more creative thoughts and output in the last couple of weeks than I have in months. As of November 1st, it's about to get even more exciting around here. More to follow.

Birdfeeder Update: Thank you so much to those who gave advice on the birdfeeder. I now have had a number of visitors, and my feeder level is starting to drop a bit. I've learned a few things as well, which some of you pointed out. 1) You have to provide cover. The feeder is next to a tree that's gaining some mass, so that's probably helping. 2) You want to be conscious of who you're attracting. Some birds are migratory and there's a theory that it's disruptive to provide permanent food to those who orient their lives around following it. I'm going to keep researching this, but I think the visitors I'm getting are called Cow Birds, which I think are just local types.

Finishing Ryan Holiday's latest book on discipline. These books remind me of Pressfield's stuff. More like data-backed motivation than pure content, but I like them regardless. BOOK


DISCOVERY

🛠️ Jfrog has a new tool for detecting Text4Shell. TOOL | by JFROG

🛠️ htmlq is like jq but for HTML. TOOL | by MICHAEL MACLEAN

🛠️ metlo is an open-source API testing tool. TOOL | by METLO LABS

What happens today if you tell Twitter you had ice cream. TWEET | by SWIFT ON SECURITY

Getting musically discovered is harder than ever, and being #1 on the radio doesn't matter anymore. MORE

What if mass corporate emails weren't actually mass, but were slightly different so they could see who leaked them? ANALYSIS BY RSNAKE

Cloudflare Pages is Kind of Amazing MORE | CLOUDFLARE PAGES

Overnight charging could be the reason you lose so much iPhone battery life in just a year. MORE

How STÖK builds custom wordlists for his bounty work. TECHNIQUE | by the amazing STÖK
 
The Social Recession, By the Numbers — A strong write-up on how disconnected we've become. MORE

Pallete.fm — A new tool that automatically colorized black and white photos. TOOL | by EMIL WALLNER

👾 We Become What We Behold | A super intriguing web game. MORE | by NICKY CASE

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RECOMMENDATION OF THE WEEK

Ask yourself what your main thing is. Is it family? Is it getting to work at a particular company? Is it making enough money so you can become an artist full-time? Know what your main thing is, and periodically look at your calendar and to-do list to make sure it's properly prioritized.


APHORISM OF THE WEEK

"The main thing is to keep the main thing the main thing."

Stephen Covey

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Humiliation is Deadly

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Humiliation is Deadly

I’ve been thinking for a few years about the danger presented by humiliated people and groups. That is, people who not only feel like they have no respect and no options to gain any respect, but who also feel that:

They deserve those things, and…That someone else is the cause of them not having them

I think both are critical. If you feel tread upon but feel like it’s just the natural order of things, you’re less likely to be angry about it. But if you feel you’re “better than this”, and “being disrespected”, and “it’s your time to rise up”, well…then there will be problems.

The cover is weird on purpose because of the topic.

I just read a few phenomenal books by Will Storr, one of which was called The Status Game. Its premise is that status is the ultimate game, and that all other games are really just embedded mini-games. Money, power, etc. None of those would be important if they didn’t impart status.

What status game are you playing?

Throughout the book he looks at many instances of people who’ve become violent—both individuals and groups—and points to events where they were acutely humiliated. He also talks about people being mostly tied to a particular status game, and how extraordinarily difficult it is for some to switch once it’s lost or removed.

THE STATUS GAME SO MANY TRUMP VOTERS ARE TRYING TO GET BACK

Uneducated US white workers 50 years ago had a thriving status game. It was being a solid American. Working at a known company. Having a healthy family. Being a good Christian. And all media was about white people and performed by white people, with other races and cultures basically being background scenery.

These are mostly gone now. Whether from automation, or atheism, or globalism, or the reduced oppression of other ethnic groups, anyone playing a status game based on white cultural dominance in the US is currently in bad shape.

Examples

So that’s one example. Let’s look at more where 1) they are either lacking a status game or they have one where they’re losing, and 2) they are angry about this.

Generalizations ahead, proceed with caution.

School shootersThe status game is high school (yikes)Good looks, humor, charisma, athletics, academicsKids without those are often bulliedBullying often becomes humiliationAccess to social media lets them find similar people who are also angryThose people might be part of groups who can offer another status gameThat status game might be based on racism or nationalism or mysogyny

There is extensive study being done on these topics, but it seems obvious that bullied kids are gravitating towards forums that promote hate. And most of that hate seems to be around race, nationalism, or hatred of women.

White people

I said in Frontview Mirror 2021 Edition that I thought white people were going to be the dominant terror threat for some time in the future.

The rise of terrorism in the US and Europe caused by factions of white people. — As demographics continue to change in Europe, the US, and Canada, expect increasing numbers of young white males to gravitate towards extremism as an alternative to being told they are guilty, worthless, unworthy of mates, etc. Anyone who will tell them that they’re valuable and attractive— and that they should be proud—will be irresistible to large numbers of them. Examples include Mormonism, Communism, White Nationalism/Supremacy.

Frontview Mirror 2021, April 2021

Here I’m speaking generally of young, less-educated, less-fortunate white people who don’t have many economic or mating options, and the older generation who told them they’re being stolen fromIn their minds they used to be on top in the US, and then it all got messed up by…someoneCould be the Blacks, Jews, Liberals, Women—or whatever their particular group or forum is focused onExtreme-left culture is doubling down on this by messaging that all white people should feel guilty and ashamedThis makes it easy for extremist groups to recruit young white males into groups that channel hate. And most importantly, they provide a new status game. A status game based on being proud of something. Which is usually either 1) whiteness, 2) being American, or 3) being a man. Not necessarily in that order—again, the research is just starting on this stuff.China

I’ve also been thinking for years about how this dynamic applies to China.

The UL Newsletter: Finding the Patterns in the Noise…Get a weekly analysis of what's happening in security and tech—and why it matters. China was successful for hundreds of years, with the best math, the best technology, the most literate population, etc. They had one their chosen status game, which was something like Confucisism + TaoismThey opted out of the status games other regions were playing, like Europe, and the US, and Russia, and they got left behindDurign this time they got invaded, conquered, experienced famines, social and political upheval, and general miseryThey even have a name for this, and they refer to it often in their current political speeches. It’s called The Century of Humiliation. I mean it’s right in the name.The current president uses this as the fire to motivate the Chinese people, essentially saying,

We were disrespected and ignored for too long. No more. We’re going to be the world power now, and China will be restored to its former and true glory.

It’s Make China Great Again.

Analysis

We need to be a bit careful with these types of models. They’re useful, but it’s too easy to over-attribute them if you turn them into a fetish. There are obviously lots of factors that go into making someone agressive, or violent, or otherwise anti-social. But I do think this ‘pride and status and humiliation’ model has a lot of explanatory power.

And one of the most interesting and powerful things about this model is that it hints at a solution. If the cause of so much of our negativity in the world is individuals and groups feeling like they have no value, and no status game they can play without being horrible, then why not focus on building better status games? And why not ceate culture and messaging that restores status to those who feel it’s been taken?

Narrative for Would-be School Shooters

Hey guys, so many of the most successful people in the world today also felt exactly as you do. It’s ok to be different. It’s ok to not be popuplar. It’s ok to be an introvert. You can be awesome. I know you can, and that you will. We have your back, and come talk to us if you need help.

Narrative for white pepole

Hey guys, it’s cool to be white. That doesn’t mean you’re better than anyone. You’re not. But nobody’s better than you either. Keep your chin up. You’re seeing tons of Black and Asian people in the media because they’ve been hidden for so long, and they need some spotlight. And the immigrants are killling it because they hustle their asses off, just like you used to 50 years ago. If you hustle like that you still have your shot. Chill. You’re awesome. They’re awesome. We’re all awesome. We have your back, and come talk to us if you need help.

Narrative for China

Hey guys, China rocks. As the US, as Europe, as the entire world, we have tremendous respect for you. What happened to you during those 100 years was reprehensible. You didn’t deserve that, and nobody does. We see you. You’re smart, you’re dedicated, you’re hard-working, and you care about the health of your country as a whole—which is something much of the world could learn from you. Chill. You’re awesome. They’re awesome. We’re all awesome. We have your back, and come talk to us if you need help.

We need to understand who’s hurting, and why—especially those who are being given harmful explanations for their treatment by extremists. Because those are the people most likely to hate and hurt others.

In other words, we need to build healthy Status Messaging and healthy Status Games that allow those on the bottom—or who feel like they’re on the bottom—to move up.

AI Art Will Push the Top 1% to Human Artists

One effect I think we’ll see from all this AI-generated art is magnified status for those who insist on the opposite, i.e., manual, human art. The more manual the better. The more human the better. Ideally there’d only be one of whatever you have, and it’d only be yours.

Why is this? It’s because when we talk about people making art for things, there are really two games being played. The first is the base need for an image of some sort. Like for a blog post, or an article. It’s something visual to complement the text. But the second axis is the most important one, which is status.

These overlap considerably, but ultimately when you put a piece of nice art on an article, which might also have nice typography, you’re saying to the reader, “this is the good stuff.”

And the better the automated art, the higher the status of the human-generated alternative. It reminds me of lawns, which are the poster yards for conspicuous consumption. Lawns were created to communicate several things, all of which are gross insights into the human mind.

I have lots of spaceI have a staff to maintain this, or I do it myself because I enjoy itI’m not even really using the space—and it’s hard to maintain—but I can so I will

When you have a giant estate a big lawn is a brag about the size of your staff. Like boasting that you have 15 servants in the British aristocracy.

Think of how rich they must be if they’re spending all that money on X!?!

It’s the same for “Made in America”, or “Hand Made”. They both indicate higher quality, maybe, but often not. It’s not actually the quality that improves, but the amount of attention and effort, which is different. Handmade things imply a shorter supply of them, made by higher-skill people.

Ultimately we’re talking about scarcity, which is one of the most potent champions for status. We want what other people can’t have. And in a world where it’s so easy to have nice-looking art, the way to one-up and win that game is to ask them who made it. If they answer anything other than with real artists name, you’ll be looked down upon.

So that’s the prediction: this pendulum swing of AI art will basically raise the bottom of art. There won’t be many sites left with no art, or horrible-looking art. And stock photo businesses are all about to close or become AI-art businesses. But the overall effect at the top end will be to differentiate by talking about the humans who do things for you. Not machines. Not AI. Not robots. Humans.

Because at that level it’s mostly not about the quality of the thing; it’s about the status it conveys.