Michele Wucker's Blog, page 7

Seeking Alpha: The Top Gray Rhinos of 2016

Predictions may be imperfect, but we do have tools at hand to help us think about what developments are most likely to sideswipe our plans. Every year, analysts compile lists of top risks for investors and policy makers.

Combined and filtered, they make for a strong comprehensive list of gray rhinos that provides a wider, balanced, global view of the year’s top risks than any individual ranking can on its own.

Most of these lists appear in the first quarter. In the months since, the momentous Brexit vote, conclusion of the U.S. primary season, and evolving economic picture make it worth revisiting them as the summer winds up and markets head into the typically volatile last part of the year.

My August 11th article on Seeking Alpha lists the Top Five Gray Rhinos of 2016 in order of importance, based on the frequency and rank of their mentions earlier in the year. I’ve updated each with my view on how the outlook has evolved over the course of the year.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Gray Rhinos and Glass Cliffs

Prime Minister Theresa May in Great Britain and CEO Marissa Mayer at Yahoo are two examples of women brought in to lead in extremely trying circumstances. It’s no more a coincidence that a country and company in turmoil both looked to women to lead than it is that a last-ditch “Hail Mary Pass” effort involves a prayer to a woman. But if companies and governments brought in women earlier, to both boards and leadership positions, they likely would do a much better job avoiding probable but neglected gray rhino crises. Waiting until it may be too late misses key opportunities to handle gray rhinos before they charge. Read my perspective at the Women’s Media Center.

HuffPost: Trump – RINO or Gray Rhino?

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The failure of a final doomed attempt to prevent Donald Trump from securing the nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland has brought to a close the first stage of the presidential race: a campaign defined above all by how bad humans are at recognizing and dealing with obvious problems right in front of them.

Many of Trump’s foes within the GOP have complained that Donald Trump is a RINO (Republican in Name Only), who does not hew to conservative principles. That may be true, but he’s not just a RINO. He’s a classic example of what I call a gray rhino: a big, obvious threat that we are all too likely to neglect or outright ignore until it’s too late.

The Republican presidential candidate’s inflammatory statements and encouragement of bullying have left many Americans terrified over what’s happening to our democracy. World leaders have compared him to Hitler and Mussolini and called him everything from an idiot to a demagogue to a threat to peace.

Some pundits have described the loose-tongued business mogul’s initial popularity as an outlier black swan event, referring to Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 book about the unpredictable events that can sideswipe us. But once enough people recognize that something can happen, by definition it is no longer a black swan.

Unlike the highly improbable black swan seen only in hindsight, gray rhinos are obvious risks that all too often are poorly (if at all) addressed until they are charging straight at you. Unlike the elephant in the room, gray rhinos move fast. Crucially, they give us a choice: act or get trampled.

Trump’s campaign has tapped into an entire crash (the zoologically correct term, appropriately enough) of gray rhinos: a polarized, paralyzed government; a breakdown in democracy and civil discourse; dramatic changes in the labor market; the increasing concentration of wealth and power in the hands of the few; and, as might be expected, rising social and political unrest. Both white working-class voters and minority populations feel neglected and disrespected.

Basic civility, compromise and constructive engagement have fallen to the wayside, replaced by bullying, insults, race-baiting, and candidates comparing the size of their you-know-whats. Too many Americans feel that they lack the power to change things for the better. Some have dropped out of the political process altogether. Others are drawn, like moths to a flame, to strong-arm leadership and revolution, reminiscent of Latin American caudillismo, with no evidence of concrete plans to keep their promises.

Trump’s takeover of the GOP is a classic example of how the five stages of a gray rhino unfold, from denial to muddling to diagnosing to panic to action. Understanding these stages can help to understand how to face a threat staring us in the face.

Read the rest of the article at Huffington Post

strategy+business: Talk My Book

When I was in New York City recently, I sat down with Dan Gross to record the inaugural “Talk My Book” podcast on strategy+business, talking about how to avoid gray rhinos. Listen HERE.

Seeking Alpha: From Black Swans to Gray Rhinos

Was the Brexit vote a highly improbable black swan or an obvious gray rhino?

Read my thoughts on Seeking Alpha July 1, 2016, to find out.

 

The Gray Rhino on The Exchange

I sat down with Reuters Breakingviews US Editor Jeffrey Goldfarb for a conversation on The Exchange about why it’s more important to look for gray rhinos than black swans and how to keep from getting trampled. The interview aired June 23, 2016. Click the image below to view the video.

With Reuters Breakingviews US Editor Jeffrey Goldfarb on The Exchange

 

Carnegie Council Gray Rhino Podcast

With Devin Stewart at the Carnegie Council

It’s always great to collaborate with the team at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York City. Recently I spoke about “Move Over Black Swan: Here Comes the Gray Rhino” on June 14th, 2016, and as always was delighted by the great turnout and thoughtful conversation. You can read the transcript and listen to the podcast HERE.

The Gray Rhino on WGN-TV Midday Fix

I had a great time talking about THE GRAY RHINO with Steve Sanders on WGN TV’s Midday Fix June 6, 2017. We covered a range of gray rhinos, from Chicago’s finances to the 2008 financial crisis to climate change to the things we ignore in our personal lives.

Watch by clicking on the image below:

Observer: Why We Ignore Obvious Dangers

In this Year of the Gray Rhino, I wrote for the New York Observer about how issues that are anything but the unexpected have sideswiped the Democratic and Republican parties:

This year’s presidential campaign is full of the unexpected. Yet the underlying issues are anything but. It’s hardly news that middle- and working-class incomes have stagnated and that Americans are fed up with a government that even squabblesover an impending public health crisis like Zika. Why, then, have the country’s two leading parties been taken aback by voters who are mad as hell and not going to take it anymore?

It’s because everyone—not just politicians—underestimates the power of the obvious problems that loom right in front of us. So it’s a surprise when inaction creates unpleasant consequences. The Democratic and Republican parties are learning this lesson the hard way.

The truth is that we get into most trouble when we’ve ignored obvious problems. I call these issues “gray rhinos” because they are huge and charging right at us and ought to be harder to ignore. Yet we miss the most important information—like calling rhinos black and white even though they are all gray.

Read the full article at observer.com

 

Inc.: 3 Questions for Startups

The best companies are the ones that see opportunity in adversity, and are always willing to change. Applying the gray rhino concept to the challenges facing start-ups –or any companies, for that matter– I penned this piece for Inc.: “3 Questions to Make Sure Your Startup Can Thrive With Change”

Have you asked yourself these key questions about your organization?