Jeff Grubb's Blog, page 14

The Political Desk: Summing Up

So, how did things go?

For Washington State, surprisingly well. The Red Wave/Tide/Tsunami that the media was intoning about failed to materialize to a great degree. The Republicans made some advances on the national scale, which is to be expected in an off-year election, but in Washington State they hit a wall, and actually lost ground. The best news is that it looks like the Election Denier wing of the GOP took the worst hits, and will hopefully be replaced with more reasonable candidates in the future.

Election denial has struck me as a tough sell as far as an election campaign - "These elections are bogus!It's all a fraud! Please vote for mem anyway!".

And in a land where a three-percentage point margin is usually considered a landslide and a mandate to govern, a lot of the candidates and measures not only beat the spread, but did so in handy numbers.

In any event, the numbers quoted are as of Thursday night, but it looks like most of them will hold as the late results come in (which tend to trend more liberal in any event). There is only one measure that is "hanging fire" right now, and ironically, it is one about how to vote. 

So. How did things go?

Advisory Vote No. 39 Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 5974 and Advisory Vote No. 40 Engrossed Substitute House Bill 2076 - Both REPEALED  (by 59%-40% in one, 53-47 in the other). These are Advisory Votes and have no bearing on the bills as passed other than saying we are disappointed in you for doing so. I really think we need to either give these things some teeth, or get them off the ballot entirely.

Charter Amendment No. 1 Even-Numbered Election Years for Certain County Offices - YES, by overwhelming numbers (69-31). As a game designer, I will attempt to run for office/launch an initiative in odd-numbered years, but then I'm just going to cheese the system.  

Proposition No. 1 Conservation Futures Levy - overwhelmingly Approved (68-31), which is nice.

United States Senator - Patty Murray wins handily (57-43). Man, there was a media kerfuffle about how close this was going to be. Turns out that running against King County (where a third of the state's voters live) was not a winning strategy. Go figure.

United States Representative Congressional District No. 9 - Adam Smith (71-29). This was an honest-to-gosh wipe-out, and I've seen nothing in the press about the depth of this wipe-out. 

Secretary of State - Steve Hobbs (49.7-46.7 with 3.6% write-ins). This would have been much closer if not for write-in campaign by the organized GOP in the state, which bled off enough votes to really make a difference. Now the organized state GOP is blaming the media for actually POINTING OUT that the GOP was running their own candidate. Though really, this is a good argument for Ranked Choice Voting and Approval Voting, as it turns out.

Legislative District No. 11 Representative Position 1 - David Hackney (69-31)

Legislative District No. 11 Representative Position 2 - Steve Bergquist  (68-32)

King County Prosecuting Attorney - Leesa Manion (56-44). Oddly, I missed this race in the summary, but I will catch up here.

And on the Stuff I'm Not Voting on(TM)? 

Changing up how Seattle votes for particular offices is actually one of those where the votes are close, and the winner may change after all the votes are counted. Right now, enacting the change is losing by a thin margin (49-51), but may catch up in further voting. BUT if they do change, RCV is smoking the more easily understood Approval Voting (75-25).

And up in the 8th US House race, Kim Schrier is winning handily (52-47) over her Extremist GOP opponent, in a race that everyone said was also going to be a nail-biter. While down in the 11th US House, I am delighted to note that Marie Glusenkamp Perez has shown the election-denying MAGA candidate the door (also 52-47). Yeah, the 11th is considered a conservative district, but it looks like voters will be actually be willing to wait for a reasonable conservative.

And in the 47th State Rep (which includes much of Kent), Claudia Kaufmann is doing well (43-47). Her opposition gave me a robo-call late election day (note: I cannot vote in that race, so next time, just send me the money you would normally spend on such nonsense), where he did himself no favors by endorsing the Republican Senatorial candidate.

And I will note that the same media that embraced the whole "Red Wave" thing are now embracing the "Trump is gornisht, the GOP is in disarray" meme. These were the same outlets that said the Seahawks would be lucky to win three games this year. So yeah, I'm not buying that, either.

And with that, The Political Desk slouches off to the bar to have a few drinks and a good lie-down. See you next election.

More later, 

D&D: Relatively Speaking

 It's going to be a little while before all the dust settles and the votes are counted, so The Political Desk is on hold for the moment. In the meantime, I've been going through my LBBs (Little Brown Books for D&D) and thinking about how we played back in the old days (#BackInMyDay, #TrulyOldSchool, #OGDnD, #GetOffMyLawn). And here's a favorite section from the original Men & Magic booklet (Page 13).

Relatives: The referee may allow players to designate one relative of this character to inherit his possessions if for any reason the participant unexpected disappears, with or without "death" being positively established, for a period of one game month, let us say. At this time the relative would inherit the estate of the character, paying a 10% tax on all goods and monies. The relative must start at the lowest level of the class he opts for, but will have the advantage of the inheritance.

    If the character returns, he takes possession of his estate once more (referee's option as to willingness of the relative to give it up) but must pay an additional 10% tax in order to regain his own. Optionally the relative may be allowed to stay on as a non-player character in the service of the player-character. Loyalty of the relative in such circumstance would be at a penalty of from 0 to -6, and he would possibly intrigue to regain control.

    Characters with a relative will lose all their possessions should they disappear and not return before whatever period is designated at establishing death.

Note that at this early stage of the game, the DM is referred to as a "referee". Also note that "taxes" are a part of the game from the start. Also, given the amount of precise legalese in the entry, you KNOW that this had to be the result of a particular situation encountered in a game. 

Just thought it was amusing. More later,

Life in the Time of the Virus: Update

Railroad Train, Edward Hopper - 1908 At the time of this writing, about 350 people per day are dying of coronavirus. For those morbidly keeping score at home, we lose 251 people/day to drug overdoses, 118/day to car accidents, and 123/day to firearms. So the pandemic keeps inching closer to daily life as "just one more thing" that can kill you around here.

One of the results of this is that Washington State and Seattle are ending the emergency. Which is sort of like an old Doonesbury cartoon where they ended the energy crisis because everyone was used to it by now, so it could hardly be a crisis, eh? We will continue to see hospitalizations and deaths, but they will be at a more manageable level as far as the institutional structure is concerned.

Most of those who are worst affected are, unsurprisingly, those who have eschewed shots in the first place. But a lot of friends and colleague, including the vaccinated, have come down with it and their symptoms have varied from mild and irritating to miserable and lingering. So even with proper vaccines, it remains dangerous.

On a local level, the Lovely Bride got her bivalent shot and seems to have emerged unscathed. I was grumping around for a day or so, but in my case, I triple-shotted a flu shot, COVID shot, and pneumonia shot in one go, which was probably a bad idea. Still, both the LB and I have dodged the viral bullet so far (touch wood).

Masks are still a thing, but in a much more limited sense. Theaters, medical offices, and tai chi are the only places that they seem mandatory. I haven't had to show my vac card for the past six months. so my freedoms have pretty much been intact. It is at most a very limited oppression. I still wear a mask when shopping. though I am in the minority these days. I am fortunate in that masks really don't bother me much (I have a bin of them by the door), and I seem to be able to communicate without too much difficulty (I have very expressive eyebrows).

On the horizon, there seems to be some new wave of variants coming out of Europe, which there has been a limited amount of information. And the flu season is hitting. AND there is a new RSV (Respiratory Syndrome Virus, similar to the common cold) going around. And Monkey Pox. So yeah, I'm still comfortable with a mask.

More later,

The Political Desk: Bonus Round: Stuff I'm Not Voting On

Why yeah, I'm going to nag you about voting. I expect that most of the readers of this blog (both of them), have already voted, but if not, get out there and vote, and encourage others to do so.

There is stuff I can't vote on around here, primarily because I am not in particular district or community that has those elections. So this a lot of this is distant thunder, and may affect me (and you) eventually.

The big one is a two-part vote up in Seattle that monkeys with how they vote. The current system is that whoever gets the most votes wins. Pretty straightforward, but as the Primaries show, it is a bit of a pain with multiple candidates, and tends to be dominated by the major parties. So the first question is do you want to change the system?

If you do, the next question, do you want the beef  or the fish? I mean, do you want Approval Voting (AV) or Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). Here's the diff:

Approval Voting says you can vote for as many candidates for any office as you want. You like all four Democrats? Vote for 'em. Don't like the incumbent? Vote for everyone except that one person. All the votes have the same weight, so the candidates with the most votes win. Approval Voting has been playtested in a couple locations, though not extensively.

Ranked Choice Voting says you do that, but list them in order. You like the hot educated young professional but will settle for the incumbent but don't care for the climate-denier? Rank them 1, 2, and 3. when the votes are counted, the low guy gets thrown out and the ballots for them look at the second choice and toss those votes onto the higher-ranked candidate. Continue the process until you get to the winner. So if you don't get your first choice, you at least have a shot at getting a decent candidate. RCV has shown up in a number of places, including Alaska, New York City, and the Hugo awards, and has been pretty effective.

Both versions reduce the binary nature of campaigns and removes situations where multiple candidates running who have a particular viewpoint results in that viewpoint getting frozen out. It will likely push voting towards the middle as opposed to opposition camps. It can weaken the power of political parties and promote more independent candidates. That's all good. But it they are admittedly more complicated (knowing how difficult it is to get people to fill in ONE little oval on the ballot). They are intended to be for Seattle's Attorney, Mayor, and City Council, so there will be "hybrid ballots" with two different types of voting on them. And this is proposed for the primaries, which are still "top two". In fact, this type of voting can negate the need for primaries at all (though you'll end up with Goodspaceguy being considered for the general election).

Here's the thing I really want to do. The Secretary of State should call on a brain trust of game designers (hey, he knows a few) and turn them loose on the system with the question "How do we cheese this system?" If anyone knows how to milk exploits out of a set of rules, it will be game designers. Let's run a development cycle or three.

But then, that's not on my ballot. If it were, I'd say No, then swing over to RCV if forced to make a choice. And get rid of primaries entirely, but that's not on the ballot this time.

There are also races that are actually kinda tight, but because of the way they draw boundaries around here, I can't vote in them, either. A few blocks away is Legislative District 11th, a redrawn district that was once traditionally GOP, but last election went Democrat, so they redrew the boundaries to put more red and rural voters into it. Kim Schrier is the incumbent who has done well in her rookie season. Her opponent is Matt Larkin, who definitely on the whackadoodle train - he's just now getting around to saying "Yeah, Biden won" effectively gaslighting his own supporters. Both sides are running attack ads on the tube, the difference being while Larkin's are all about how scary Schrier is (Ominous music, grainy photos, yellow police tape), while ads against Larkin tend to just use voice clips from Larkin's speeches about how this is no time for moderation. So, yeah, there is a difference.

But Larkin's the not the worst GOP Candidate in Washington State. That away goes way to the south, far outside this blog's throw weight. Joe Kent is a newly-arrived carpetbagger looking for an easy grift in a conservative area around Vancouver, Washington. He's got Trump showing up to support him, and ticks all the MAGA boxes. Most recently, the Seattle Times notes that Joe Kent wants to go after those really responsible for Jan. 6 - the FBI. Because attacking the capitol building was a sting operation. So yeah, support his opponent - Marie Glusenkamp Perez. Southern Washington is "Let's Go Brandon" territory, but there are enough sane GOP supporters down there that the race is tight.

Finally, MOST of the city of Kent (but not this household) is in the 47th state legislative district, and actually has a race between two competent, reasonable candidates. Bill Boyce and Claudia Kauffman both come out of the Kent City Council, and have proved to reasonable and responsible grown-ups. This is a choice between two good candidates. I favor Claudia Kauffman because of her positions, it is one of those races where I feel the political responsibility is in safe hands. And I want to point out that there ARE sane Republicans out there. But I still don't like their positions.

In the meantime, if you are in Washington State, or any state that allows early voting. Go Vote, and encourage others to do so as well. 'Cause you have some real loons out there.

More later, 

Book: Breath of Fresh Air.

 Exhalation by Ted Chiang, Vintage Books, 2019

Provenance: Elliot Bay Bookstore, which was originally down in Pioneer Square but has moved up to Capitol Hill to occupy part of the old Oddfellows Hall. I was up there to meet a former colleague for dinner, and wanted to stop in and get a different book (which is a different story). 

Review: I was (very briefly) in a writer's group with Ted Chiang. Ted is one of those writers who publishes maybe one story a year, and that story in then nominated or wins various Hugos, Nebulas, and Locus awards. He's really that good. A short story from his previous collection, Stories of Your Life and Others was made into the movie Awakening.

This volume is a collection of tales from since that earlier volume, and is just as fantastic. He creates realistic alien worlds, and then plays within them - The title story involves a robotic race, where the narrator literally trepans himself in order to understand memory. In "Omphalos", he posits a universe where Young Earth Theory is backed up by the facts and evidence."The Truth of Fact, the Truth of Feeling" extends the always-recording lifestyles into creating a perfect history of what really happened. Each is a self-contained world that feels totally reasonable.

Chiang's stories also talk about free will, and the absence of it in a deterministic universe, a lot. in "The Merchant and the Alchemist's Gate" we deal with time travel in a deterministic universe, where the past cannot change because of what has happened, but those that travel into the past have their own reasons for not changing it. In "What's Expected of Us" he introduces a simple device that proves the future is deterministic and unchangeable, that Free Will is an illusion, and what happens to society when that is proved. And in "Anxiety is the Dizziness of Freedom" he posits the idea of a branching multiverse that still puts the question of free will to the test by allowing access between the various branches (quick answer - capitalism and a lot of therapy).

The most frightening story does not involve a robot operating on his own brain in realtime, but "The Lifecycle of Software Objects" that deals with living and thinking digital intelligence and corporate thinking. The meeting of those two I found chilling when I first read it years ago, and it still frightens me to some degree.

Chiang's worlds are deterministic, and he will not bend the rules for the sake of character and story. There are few full happy endings, because the universe doesn't play that way. At best, there is understanding and acceptance for what is to come.

It's a great collection, and if you haven't discovered Ted Chiang, here's your chance. 

More later,

The Political Desk - The Jeff Recommends.

OK, we have the ballot before us, looking all the world like one of those standardized tests from Junior High. We fight the panic attack from filling in little dots, and marvel all those unopposed Judge positions. What do we have?

Advisory Vote No. 39 Engrossed Substitute Senate Bill 5974 - Maintained, with the standard kvetches. 

Advisory Vote No. 40 Engrossed Substitute House Bill 2076 - Maintained.

Charter Amendment No. 1 Even-Numbered Election Years for Certain County Offices - No, but you be you.

Proposition No. 1 Conservation Futures Levy - Approved

United States Senator - Patty Murray

United States Representative Congressional District No. 9 - Adam Smith

Secretary of State - Steve Hobbs

Legislative District No,. 11 Representative Position 1 - David Hackney

Legislative District No,. 11 Representative Position 2 - Steve Bergquist

So, get your ballots in by 8 November. There are drop boxes all over, and you can mail it without a stamp if you have it postmarked by 8 November. You can also register to vote up to election day as well. And yeah, we'll be nagging you as we go along. Now we return you to your regularly scheduled book, game, and play reviews. 

More later,

The Political Desk - County Position

 The sole position to be filled at the county level is for Prosecuting Attorney. Gee, there would be more talk about if only we moved other county elections to even-numbered years (yeah, that's sarcasm).

The good news it that we're looking at two solid candidates with good experience and different approaches to crime. Jim Ferrell is a former prosecutor and Mayor of Federal Way who favors more law-and-order and incarceration for repeat offenders, and has endorsements from most police unions. Leesa Manion has spent the past 15 years as Chief of Staff for Dan Satterberg, the current King County Prosecutor, favors diversion and mitigation as opposed to incarceration, and has a pack of Democratic party endorsements. Both are serious on crime, just take very different approaches. I'm going to recommend Leesa Manion for the position. But again, we're looking at two impressive resumes here.

And.... that's it for the county level. Since I have the space, here are some anagrams for "Political Desk":

Politick SalPickle AltoidsPolitic DaleksLicked TopsailEllipsoid TackDali StockpileDespotic KaliCallisto PikedAldi Elk Optics

OK, I'm done. More later,

The Political Desk - State Offices

For the state offices, there is one biggie, along with two good incumbents for our legislature.

 Secretary of State. This position is in charge of our Elections, which has been doing a pretty damned fine job for the past few decades. One big reason for this was Republican Kim Wyman, who left to take a job with the Biden Administration. Gov. Inslee appointed Steve Hobbs to the position to fill out her term (There will be another election in 2024), and he's done well continuing Wyman's professionalism and expanding on it. His opponent is Julie Anderson, who is running as a non-partisan and packs solid experience as Pierce County Auditor. 

This is one of those situations where both candidates are good choices. I support Steve Hobbs for a very personal reason - he's a gamer. He plays TTRPGs, and when he was in the State House, not only supported the small independent game companies in the state, but also hosted sessions to teach other Representatives about role-playing games. I have always said that most of our laws need a good play-test session and development cycle before being enacted, and having someone in charge who knows that is a bonus.

The campaign has been incredibly polite and professional so far, and that is to both candidate's credit. Naturally, it cannot last. The official Republicans, who were shut out in the primary have rallied and chosen Brad Klippert, an "election-skeptic" who lost out in the primary, as a write-in candidate. Write-in candidates are a tough go, mainly because getting the word out is a challenge, and the only promotion I have seen so far has been news reports saying that it is a thing. The end result will likely be that Klippert drains off the not-a-Democrat vote from Anderson, and that Hobbs will take it with a plurality, not a majority.

Down-ballot, Legislative District 11 JUST nicks the corner of Kent that Grubb Street occupies. We have two good incumbents who are rounding out their rookie season with accomplishments, and deserve to keep their jobs. 

Legislative District No,. 11 Representative Position 1 David Hackney has been strong on climate and conservation, and deserves to be returned to office.

Legislative District No,. 11 Representative Position 2. High school teacher Steve Bergquist ran on education issues and has delivered as well. Yeah, let's keep him as well.

That it it for the State level.  Then we bounce back down to the County level for one position. More later, 

The Political Desk - King County Measures

 And the next course is .... More Broccoli! But its a tastier version, smothered in cheese.

Charter Amendment No. 1 Even-Numbered Election Years for Certain County Offices. This amendment to the King County Charter will move elections for King County Executive, Director of Elections, and King County Council members to even number numbered years. Here's the logic - More people vote in even-year elections that in odd-year elections, because there are usually more big-ticket items on the ballot, like Senators, US Reps, and the occasional President. Moving the election of these offices to those years will increase the number of voters, which would is generally thought of as a good thing. Which is basically true.

The Times likes this. The Stranger likes it. I am less sanguine about it.

Here's my thinking. Even though moving to even-year elections would make my job here a tad bit easier, and reduce the guilt of people who don't vote anyway, yearly elections are incremental in nature. That is to say, you are not locked in across the board until the next major election cycle. It also creates a lot of sudden change in  red-tide or blue-tide elections, where everyone (or at least a good chunk) on one side shows up. Finally, it increases the chances of those tidal elections in cases where the candidate at the highest position is so odious, the coat-tails drag everyone else down. I think it makes our voting system more vulnerable. AND those elections that are still in odd years will get even LESS attention. So I'm surprisingly a NO on this. 

I know, I'm one of these crazy mad-scientist-ranked-choice-voting guys, and I'm still unsure about this one. On the other hand:

Proposition No. 1 Conservation Futures Levy, on the other hand, raises funds for urban green spaces and salmon habitats. Hate taxes, but love green space. So I'm with Approved on this one.

More later,  

The Political Desk - Federal Offices

 Now we get to the meat of the situation - the headliners, the main events, the big kahunas. The Federal offices.

United States Senator. Patty Murray has been a strong voice in the Senate for the people in general and the people of Washington State in particular. The Stranger stans her pro-choice stands. The Times compares her to their political heroes Scoop Jackson and Warren Magnuson, She has done a lot in her 30 years, and deserves six more. Her opposition has been bog-standard modern Republican - no political office background, has purged her site of anti-choice language and election denialism, and is coy about her current opinions on those matter. Her campaign has the traditional Republican themes of fear and loathing, and she is running against Seattle, the local media, and coffee shops that are not Starbucks. So yeah, re-elect Patty Murray.

United States Representative Congressional District No. 9 . Like Patty Murray, Adam Smith has been around for a while. He's a member of both progressive and moderate caucuses, and he leans left on domestic matters. As the head of the Armed Services Committee (which is always referred to in print as the powerful Armed Services Committee), he's actually an old-school conservative, in that he wants to get his money's worth when we purchase new weapon systems. On merit alone, he deserves re-election. The Wiley Coyote to his Roadrunner in Doug Basler, talk-show host and Chamber of Commerce chairman who is on his fourth run for the position. So, Adam Smith (and I will put away my Invisible Hand jokes for now).

There are other, closer races, but they aren't on my ballot. Maybe that'll be another entry.

More later,