R.H. Johnson's Blog
December 7, 2021
July 3, 2021
Cirle the date: January 2031
CIRCLE THE DATE: JANUARY 2031
In nine and a half years a comet measuring nearly 250 miles across will emerge from the darkness of deep space and reach its closest point to the sun: 10.9 astronomical units, or roughly a billion miles. It won't be a close call for Earth, not by any stretch of the imagination, but the alien visitor will affirm an old truth. Lurking "out there" are objects that may have our name on them.
The comet in question is officially designated C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), in case you're interested, and was discovered by two University of Pennsylvania astronomers. The object has been traveling through our galaxy since the earliest days of the universe and will continue doing so until it either disintegrates after passing close to the sun too many times or -- sorry for the pessimism -- slams into another object.
Now here's an interesting issue for you to consider. Most scientists claim there's an incredibly low probability that a gigantic comet or asteroid will strike Earth anytime soon. But they base this assumption on history. In other words, they look at past asteroid strikes, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and figure that past frequency helps us understand future frequency.
But is that a reasonable assumption? I'm not convinced.
The motion of comets and asteroids is governed in part by random events. For example, two objects in the asteroid belt collide, and one is sent zipping off in Earth's direction. Since we don't know when such a collision will occur, we can't possibly know when a threatening object will come our way. It might be a year from today, or it could be 20 million years.
And then there are objects that come from beyond our solar system. These are chunks of alien rock that have been thrown from other solar systems or galaxies and have been traveling for millions or billions of years. Sometimes we see them years in advance. On the other hand, sometimes we don't see them until they either hit our planet or explode in our atmosphere. Hunting for near-Earth objects is a full-time job for a great many scientists using sophisticated telescopes of every kind, but it's an imperfect science that often borders on art. There's no guarantee the "big one" will be detected in time for us to do anything about it.
I don't lie awake at night worrying about being hit by an asteroid or comet. But I do consider such things when I write. In my next book -- the working title is THE VIRGO PARADOX -- I consider some of the possibilities, both positive and negative.
I'm incorporating as much scientific fact as I can into my fiction this time, hoping to avoid the kind of pure silliness that often turns up in sci-fi movies. When the book is released later this year, you'll get to judge how well I succeeded.
In nine and a half years a comet measuring nearly 250 miles across will emerge from the darkness of deep space and reach its closest point to the sun: 10.9 astronomical units, or roughly a billion miles. It won't be a close call for Earth, not by any stretch of the imagination, but the alien visitor will affirm an old truth. Lurking "out there" are objects that may have our name on them.
The comet in question is officially designated C/2014 UN271 (Bernardinelli-Bernstein), in case you're interested, and was discovered by two University of Pennsylvania astronomers. The object has been traveling through our galaxy since the earliest days of the universe and will continue doing so until it either disintegrates after passing close to the sun too many times or -- sorry for the pessimism -- slams into another object.
Now here's an interesting issue for you to consider. Most scientists claim there's an incredibly low probability that a gigantic comet or asteroid will strike Earth anytime soon. But they base this assumption on history. In other words, they look at past asteroid strikes, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, and figure that past frequency helps us understand future frequency.
But is that a reasonable assumption? I'm not convinced.
The motion of comets and asteroids is governed in part by random events. For example, two objects in the asteroid belt collide, and one is sent zipping off in Earth's direction. Since we don't know when such a collision will occur, we can't possibly know when a threatening object will come our way. It might be a year from today, or it could be 20 million years.
And then there are objects that come from beyond our solar system. These are chunks of alien rock that have been thrown from other solar systems or galaxies and have been traveling for millions or billions of years. Sometimes we see them years in advance. On the other hand, sometimes we don't see them until they either hit our planet or explode in our atmosphere. Hunting for near-Earth objects is a full-time job for a great many scientists using sophisticated telescopes of every kind, but it's an imperfect science that often borders on art. There's no guarantee the "big one" will be detected in time for us to do anything about it.
I don't lie awake at night worrying about being hit by an asteroid or comet. But I do consider such things when I write. In my next book -- the working title is THE VIRGO PARADOX -- I consider some of the possibilities, both positive and negative.
I'm incorporating as much scientific fact as I can into my fiction this time, hoping to avoid the kind of pure silliness that often turns up in sci-fi movies. When the book is released later this year, you'll get to judge how well I succeeded.
June 30, 2021
We've Got Problems
The novel I'm currently working on takes a hard look at life on our small blue planet. Unless you've been hiding in a cave for the past five years, you know what most of those problems are, but I'll mention a couple anyway.
Near the top of the list is climate change. Deny it at your peril. It's real and getting worse. Some scientists, in fact, believe we're past the tipping point. Since I'm not a scientist, I can't say one way or the other. But I'm able to read. Sea-level rise is a fact. So is glacier melt. So is the breaking off of massive chunks of Antarctica. If you're as old as I am, this may not affect you. But it will affect your children and grandchildren, especially if they live near the ocean, which will inundate a number of U.S. cities by 2050 at the latest.
A second problem, and one I'm spending much of my time on these days, is errant space objects. Asteroids, tiny ones, enter Earth's atmosphere virtually every day of the year. The smallest ones settle to the planet as dust. Larger ones may land as small chunks. More than 5,000 tons of extraterrestrial dust land on our planet every year. You and I don't see it because the debris is generally tiny. And this is good.
On the other hand, not all space objects are tiny. NASA maintains a global network of sophisticated telescopes and highly trained observers to keep track of the largest objects, meaning those that would wreak havoc on the planet if they hit. This is a 24x7x365 effort that seeks to warn us of a potentially catastrophic impact, and the work is done brilliantly without any input from you or me. We're simply the beneficiaries.
Here's the problem, though. Not even the most sophisticated hardware can spot all the objects that could be a significant problem. It's just not possible. There are new space telescopes on the drawing board, but even they will not guarantee detection of dangerous asteroids or comets.
IF we succeed in spotting a dangerous object that's on a collision course with Earth AND we see it years in advance, maybe we'll be able to deflect or destroy it. But it's possible we'll detect the object only months, weeks, or days before its arrival. In that case, of course, we've got a huge problem.
I'll leave the details for my next novel. In the meantime, go online and read about NASA's Center for Near-Earth Objects. I guarantee you'll be interested.
Near the top of the list is climate change. Deny it at your peril. It's real and getting worse. Some scientists, in fact, believe we're past the tipping point. Since I'm not a scientist, I can't say one way or the other. But I'm able to read. Sea-level rise is a fact. So is glacier melt. So is the breaking off of massive chunks of Antarctica. If you're as old as I am, this may not affect you. But it will affect your children and grandchildren, especially if they live near the ocean, which will inundate a number of U.S. cities by 2050 at the latest.
A second problem, and one I'm spending much of my time on these days, is errant space objects. Asteroids, tiny ones, enter Earth's atmosphere virtually every day of the year. The smallest ones settle to the planet as dust. Larger ones may land as small chunks. More than 5,000 tons of extraterrestrial dust land on our planet every year. You and I don't see it because the debris is generally tiny. And this is good.
On the other hand, not all space objects are tiny. NASA maintains a global network of sophisticated telescopes and highly trained observers to keep track of the largest objects, meaning those that would wreak havoc on the planet if they hit. This is a 24x7x365 effort that seeks to warn us of a potentially catastrophic impact, and the work is done brilliantly without any input from you or me. We're simply the beneficiaries.
Here's the problem, though. Not even the most sophisticated hardware can spot all the objects that could be a significant problem. It's just not possible. There are new space telescopes on the drawing board, but even they will not guarantee detection of dangerous asteroids or comets.
IF we succeed in spotting a dangerous object that's on a collision course with Earth AND we see it years in advance, maybe we'll be able to deflect or destroy it. But it's possible we'll detect the object only months, weeks, or days before its arrival. In that case, of course, we've got a huge problem.
I'll leave the details for my next novel. In the meantime, go online and read about NASA's Center for Near-Earth Objects. I guarantee you'll be interested.
June 26, 2021
No more UFOs
The U.S. government decided some time ago that we no longer have UFOs. They're now UAPs, as in Unexplained Aerial Phenomena. Either way, the mysterious objects, whatever they are, continue to fly above us with alarming frequency. My 18th novel, arriving at the end of 2021, visits the strangeness of life beyond Earth. I won't tell you where the story is going, but I'll give you a few relevant facts. There are somewhere between 100 billion and 400 billions stars in our Milky Way galaxy and roughly the same number of planets. Ah, but there are also about two trillion galaxies in the known universe, some larger and some smaller than ours. Do the math, if you can. Begin at the low end and assume there are only 100 billion planets in the Milky Way. Now multiply that by two trillion to see how many planets there might be in the universe. Is your calculator smoking yet? The answer I got is 200 sextillion, or 200 followed by 21 zeroes. Now here's the question. Is it plausible to believe that only one planet out of 200 sextillion has intelligent life on it? Seriously? No, I can't buy it. But I'll go one step further. Since there are planets out there vastly older than Earth, is it reasonable to assume that ours represents the most advanced civilization anywhere? Another no. We are not alone, friends. Our nearest neighbors may be a thousand light-years away, but they're out there. I'll keep you posted on my upcoming novel. In the meantime, think about a nice relaxing summer book. Fear River will take you on a thrilling ride among the Thousand Islands, where a killer matches wits with two NYPD detectives. You can find Fear River and all my other novels through Goodreads and Amazon. Happy reading.
