J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 43

Psychological Paths to Collaboration...

Smart observations through the lens of French collaboration after 1940 and eastern European collaboration after 1945:

Anne Applebaum: Why Do Republican Leaders Continue to Enable Trump? https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/trumps-collaborators/612250/: 'The point is not to compare Trump to Hitler or Stalin; the point is to compare the experiences of high-ranking members of the American Republican Party, especially those who work most closely with the White House, to the experiences of Frenchmen in 1940, or of East Germans in 1945, or of Czes��aw Mi��osz in 1947...

...These are experiences of people who are forced to accept an alien ideology or a set of values that are in sharp conflict with their own. Not even Trump's supporters can contest this analogy, because the imposition of an alien ideology is precisely what he was calling for all along. Trump's first statement as president, his inaugural address, was an unprecedented assault on American democracy and American values....

McCain's funeral... did clarify the situation. A year and a half into the Trump administration, it marked a turning point, the moment at which many Americans in public life began to adopt the strategies, tactics, and self-justifications that the inhabitants of occupied countries have used in the past---doing so even though the personal stakes were, relatively speaking, so low.... A Republican senator who dares to question whether Trump is acting in the interests of the country is in danger of---what, exactly? Losing his seat and winding up with a seven-figure lobbying job or a fellowship at the Harvard Kennedy School? He might meet the terrible fate of Jeff Flake, the former Arizona senator, who has been hired as a contributor by CBS News. He might suffer like Romney, who was tragically not invited to the Conservative Political Action Conference, which this year turned out to be a reservoir of COVID���19...

.#noted #2020-06-08

James Bennet Dodges & Weaves...

I like Michael Bennet a lot: his position is that he pushes for policies where he can see a path to getting 60 votes in the senate. By all accounts Doug Bennet was a great president of Wesleyan. But James Bennet���both at the Atlantic and at the New York Times���appears, by all accounts, to have been the wrong person at the wrong time in the wrong job, and to have lacked the self-awareness to understand that:

Ben Terris: Can the Bennet brothers Save the Establishment? https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-terris-james-bennet.pdf: 'In early 2014... Caitlin Flanagan... the state of fraternities in America.... The article included the story of a female student who was raped at a Wesleyan University party, and the ugly court battle that followed---during which the college tried to defend itself against a lawsuit by blaming the woman for putting herself in an unsafe situation. [Father] Douglas Bennet... was not president of the college at the time of the sexual assault or the subsequent court case... mentioned in the story only in passing.... James agreed to recuse himself from any role in editing the story, but Jennifer Barnett, the managing editor at the time, said in an interview with The Post that "over the course of producing the story, he abused the staff and undermined the editorial process."...

...James mistreated Scott Stossel, the editor in charge of the story, often in "hard-to-detect ways," such as not inviting him to staff gatherings, ignoring his emails and cutting him off when speaking in front of colleagues. When reached to comment, Stossel, who still works at the Atlantic, said in an email: "James, with whom I worked for a decade, was an excellent, highly principled editor-in-chief and I'm very proud of the journalism we produced under his leadership. In this particular situation, circumstances put James into an impossible position, so he was recused from working on that piece, which we published as a cover story, to general acclaim."

Barnett said she reported James to human resources three times during the episode. In an email, she told Scott Havens, who was then president of the Atlantic, that James had been acting "openly hostile" toward Stossel. It was "affecting every aspect of the magazine production," she wrote, "and is quite literally making me ill." "Hi Jennifer, thanks for reporting this," Havens wrote back. "Please know I'm also aware and involved." (Havens declined to comment for this article.)

After the story published���without any changes made by James���James called the managing editor into his office. "He told me to 'be very careful,'" Barnett said. "That he was 'in this for the long game.'" A short time later, James was promoted to co-president of the Atlantic and eventually lured back to the New York Times. But not before Barnett left journalism. "I quit because of him," she said���adding that it wasn't only the fraternity story but the atmosphere James created.

"I'm astonished and very sorry to hear this, but there's no way I can defend myself. I've said I would recuse myself from anything related to my brother's campaign, and this article clearly falls into that category," James wrote in an email when asked to comment...

.#noted #2020-06-08

Trying to Prevent Another Subpar Recovery

A slow recovery from the coronavirus recession will be a societal policy choice. But I think that it is a societal policy choice that we are going to make. Adam Ozimek is trying to push back the tide, and it is a tide:

Adam Ozimek: '[Labor market] matching matters https://twitter.com/ModeledBehavior/status/1269979410947506177. The argument from the G[reat ]R[ecession] was never that recovery could happen overnight, but that it could have happened significantly faster...

...A decade of below target inflation and wage growth tracking slack is consistent with this. The data do not allow us to distinguish between "F--- it, I want to get back out there" and "F--- it, I want some PPP money". I am confident it's a mix of both, as consumer spending bottomed & even a small % rehiring for the 50m worker PPP firms would -> big gross hiring. This is 10% of the gross job loss recovered, leaving 19m jobs still on the line.

It is way, way, way too soon to draw conclusions about the level of [labor-market] matches which have been broken.... We should not have our normal recession analysis hats on.... Maintaining matches should be economic priority #1 at this point. I don't think this is much of a surprise, and it doesn't yet affect my view of business cycles...

.#forecasting #macro #noted #2020-06-08

Recession Ready Returns...

I am writing before this event has taken place. But I am extremely confident that it will be���was���very interesting and very useful:

Heather Boushey & co.: Recession Ready: Fiscal Policy Options to Support Communities and Stabilize the Economy https://www.hamiltonproject.org/events/recession_ready_fiscal_policy_options_to_support_communities_and_stabilize_the_economy: 'Monday, June 8, 2020 :: 2:00-3:00 p.m. EDT :: Online Chat Washington, DC: The Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution and the Washington Center for Equitable Growth will host a webcast discussing the importance of expanding aid to state and local governments as part of the continued fiscal policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The webcast will begin with a fireside chat with Rep. Don Beyer, vice chair of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, and Heather Boushey of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. The webcast will also include a roundtable discussion between Jason Furman of Harvard University, former Mayor of Philadelphia Michael Nutter, and Jay Shambaugh of The Hamilton Project. The webcast will coincide with the one year anniversary of the release of The Hamilton Project and Washington Center for Equitable Growth book, "Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy"... #equitablegrowth #noted #2020-06-08

WCEG Jobs Day Charticle...

Always smart, always interesting, always useful. I am, however, going to suggest that Kate, Carmen, and company focus more on employment rather than unemployment numbers. I am becoming increasingly skeptical of how much the unemployment rate, as the CPS questions are asked and answered, corresponds to the reality of our economy:

Kate Bahn & Carmen Sanchez Cumming: Equitable Growth's Jobs Day Graphs: May 2020 Report Edition https://equitablegrowth.org/equitable-growths-jobs-day-graphs-may-2020-report-edition/: 'On June 5th, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released new data on the U.S. labor market during the month of May. Below are five graphs compiled by Equitable Growth staff highlighting important trends in the data. As the overall unemployment rate declined to 13.3%, this was led by a decline in white unemployment from 14.2% to 12.4%. Meanwhile, Black unemployment increased slightly from 16.7% to 16.8% and Hispanic unemployment declined from a historic high of 18.9% to 17.6%.... Employment across sectors began to rebound in May, and growth was led by leisure and hospitality after this industry lost nearly half of all employment in the prior month.... After the most extreme decline in employment levels in history in April, the prime-age employment rate moved upward in May to 71.4%... #equitablegrowth #noted #2020-06-08

Note to Self #tickler: The works & relevance of A.C. Pigou

Note to Self #tickler: The works & relevance of A.C. Pigou:

Ian Kumekawa (2017): The First Serious Optimist: A. C. Pigou and the Birth of Welfare Economics https://www.amazon.com/Ian-Kumekawa-ebook/dp/B071R54415/...

Ian Kumekawa (2020): We Need to Revisit the Idea of Pigou Wealth Tax https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-kumekuwa-pigou-wealth-tax.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1916): The Economy & Finance of the War: Being a Discussion of the Real Costs 0f the War & the Way in Which They Should Be Met https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-war-finance.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1919): The Burden of War & Future Generations https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-pigou-burden-of-war.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1920): A Capital Levy & a Levy on War Wealth https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-wealth-tax.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1920): The Economics of Welfare https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-economics-of-welfare.pdf...
Arthur Cecil Pigou (1940): The Political Economy of War https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-war.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1946): Income: An Introduction to Economics https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-income.pdf...

Arthur Cecil Pigou (1947): A Study In Public Finance https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-pigou-public-finance.pdf...

#economics #equitablegrowth #inequality #politicaleconomy #notetoself #moralphilosophy #tickler #2020-06-07

My Cousin Jonathan Cooks One of the 17 Best Takeout Burgers in NYC...

Lucy Meilus, Kelly Dobkin, & Tae Yoon: Best Burgers in NYC: Good Burger Spots for Delivery & Takeout Orders https://www.thrillist.com/eat/new-york/best-burgers-nyc: ���Lucali Burger. Bond Street Cafe. 365 Bond Street, Brooklyn: Located in Gowanus right by the canal, this local American cafe specializes in coffee, breakfast items like avocado toast, and a hefty list of sandwiches both hot and cold. Remaining open during COVID, Bond Street Cafe has continued to offer its regular menu for takeout and delivery, in addition to adding a special burger made in collaboration with famed Brooklyn pizzeria, Lucali. The Lucali Burger���s double patties are made with a blend of brisket and short rib from local butcher Paisanos and is served with melted American cheese, onions, pickles, mustard, and ketchup between a seeded roll��� #coronavirus #food #noted #2020-06-07

Gandalf the Grey Talking Shop...

Gandalf the Grey talking shop. Since none of the eight people he is talking to are wizards, nobody he is addressing has the slightest idea what he is talking about���except possibly Legolas: Gandalf: The Fellowship of the Ring: 'I found myself suddenly faced by something that I have not met before. I could think of nothing to do but to try and put a shutting-spell on the door. I know many; but to do things of that kind rightly requires time, and even then the door can be broken by strength. As I stood there I could hear orc-voices on the other side: at any moment I thought they would burst it open. I could not hear what was said; they seemed to be talking in their own hideous language. All I caught was gh��sh: that is ���fire���. Then something came into the chamber���I felt it through the door, and the orcs themselves were afraid and fell silent. It laid hold of the iron ring, and then it perceived me and my spell. What it was I cannot guess, but I have never felt such a challenge. The counter-spell was terrible. It nearly broke me. For an instant the door left my control and began to open! I had to speak a word of Command. That proved too great a strain. The door burst in pieces. Something dark as a cloud was blocking out all the light inside, and I was thrown backwards down the stairs. All the wall gave way, and the roof of the chamber as well, I think��� #books #noted #2020-06-04

How Are We Supposed to Teach?

My day job as a professor is teaching people at the college level. Americas colleges and universities are highly, highly effective as teaching institutions: we boost people���s incomes by about 7% for each year attended, and it looks as though only 2%-points of those 7 are signaling and selection���the rest are true value. Moreover, those who major in my discipline, economics, appear to gain an extra 20% in income relative to those similarly situated who major in some other non-STEM discipline. Plus we genuinely believe that we open mental doors, and give our students the tools they need to live richer lives.

But there has long been a problem with colleges and universities as an industry: we do not really understand how we do it. Much of what we do is give lectures, assign readings, and administer tests. But the research shows that most of our students learn very little from lectures, are rather poor at learning from readings (when they do them, rather than take a look at the pile we have overassigned and give up), and cram for tests in a way that turns test studying into the opposite of effective reinforcement learning.

The smart money has been that our success as an industry is primarily the result of the social-intellectual rather than the formal-intellectual component of higher education. But we are not sure. This problem, however, has been on the back burner for years��� generations��� perhaps centuries��� because our ���customers��� have long been highly satisfied.

But now this knowledge problem of ours has suddenly become urgent. The social-intellectual component of education has come crashing down in the age of coronavirus. We badly need to retool. We badly need to retool immediately. Yet we do not know how to do so:

Scott Galloway: How Coronavirus Will Disrupt Future Colleges & Universities https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/scott-galloway-future-of-college.html: ���The value of education has been substantially degraded. There���s the education certification and then there���s the experience part of college. The experience part of it is down to zero, and the education part has been dramatically reduced.... At universities, we���re having constant meetings, and we���ve all adopted this narrative of ���This is unprecedented, and we���re in this together,��� which is Latin for ���We���re not lowering our prices, bitches.��� Universities are still in a period of consensual hallucination with each saying, ���We���re going to maintain these prices for what has become, overnight, a dramatically less compelling product offering.��� In fact, the coronavirus is forcing people to take a hard look at that 51,000 tuition they���re spending.... It���s a great year to take a gap year.... Ultimately, universities are going to partner with companies to help them expand. I think that partnership will look something like MIT and Google partnering. Microsoft and Berkeley. Big-tech companies are about to enter education���

#berkeley #cognition #noted #teaching #universities #2020-06-04

Eric Budish Is a Genius...

The insight that a good way to talk to non-economists is to point out that there is a major kink in the benefits as you go from R greater than 1 to R less than one seems to me likely to be very important and likely to be exactly right. And I think the figure Eric put up on the screen during his talk is one of the best ways I can think of to convey that insight to non-economists: Eric Budish: R Less than 1 as an Economic Constraint: Can We ���Expand the Frontier��� in the Fight Against Covid-19? https://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/eric.budish/research/Budish_expand_the_frontier_covid19.pdf: ���This note suggests that we view R Less than 1 as an economic constraint, allowing social welfare in the traditional sense (economic activity, societal well-being) to be the policy objective. This formulation highlights two key questions at the intersection of health and economics research in response to the Covid-19 crisis. First, what activities maximize social welfare subject to the constraint that disease-transmission is contained, i.e., R Less than 1. Second, what are ways to ���expand the frontier��� of how much social welfare we can achieve while keeping disease-transmission contained. For example, could widespread use of masks and gloves, society-wide campaigns to ���wash your hands,��� ���stay home if sick,��� and ���don���t touch your face,��� and aggressive testing, together allow us to meaningfully increase the level of economic activity and societal well-being that is possible while keeping R Less than 1?��� #coronavirus #noted #publichealth #2020-06-04