J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2272
June 28, 2010
Attempted DeLong Smackdown Watch: Unsuccessful Attempt by Kartik "Malibu Barbie" Athreya
In terms reminiscent of Malibu Barbie's "math is hard," now comes Kartik Athreya from the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank to say "Economics Is Hard":
Matthew Yglesias, John Stossel, Robert Samuelson, and Robert Reich... [are:] exceedingly unlikely... [to:] have anything interesting to say about economic policy....
Deficits, short-term interest rate targets, sovereign debt are all chewed over with a level of self-assuredness that only someone who doesn’t know more could. The list of...
The Future of Macroeconomics
Daniel Davies:
D-squared Digest -- FOR bigger pies and shorter hours and AGAINST more or less everything else: I think we can all agree that things will go better if all currently working monetary economists stop teaching their models to undergraduates and instead adopt my modelling approach:
June 27, 2010
links for 2010-06-27
Clay Shirky: Power Laws, Weblogs, and Inequality
Jay Rosen: "Think about what the Politico is saying: an experienced beat reporter would probably not want to 'burn bridges' with key sources by telling the world what happens when those sources let their guard down."
Austin Frakt: Cowen's Road to Medicare Not...
Fiscal Policy!!
James Morley on the Failure of "Modern" Macroeconomics
Larry Meyer once claimed, I am told by perhaps-unreliable sources, that the slash-and-burn campaign conducted throughout macroeconomic theory by the Lucas-Prescott faction's main effect had been to ensure that he had next to no competitors in forecasting the current state and likely future direction of the economy--and that while this was profitable for him it was not terribly healthy for the profession.
James Morley of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC: In a recent essay, Narayana...
The Long-Term Budget Outlook Precedes the Midsession Review and the Economic and Budget Outlook Update?!?!
I am confused by this release sechedule:
Congressional Budget Office: The Congressional Budget Office will release its 2010 Long-Term Budget Outlook on Wednesday, June 30. The report will be publicly available on this Web site at 9:00 a.m.
The Course of the Recession
A marginal propensity to consume of 0.5:
Autonomous spending, consumption spending, and GDP:
Department of "Huh?!" Greg Mankiw Is Not Making Any Sense...
The $787 billion ARRA was about 2/3 spending increases and 1/3 tax cuts. Jared Bernstein and Christie Romer estimated that with a spending multiplier of 1.57 and a tax multiplier of 0.99 that the ARRA would boost production over its lifetime by $787 x 2/3 x 1.57 + $787 x 1/3 x 0.99 = $1,083 billion.
Now comes Greg Mankiw to say that they overestimated the impact of the ARRA because their multipliers were wrong: that he prefers a tax multiplier of 3 (from Romer and Romer) and a spending...
Department of Huh?!?! I Think Clive Crook Has Genuinely Lost His Mind...
Clive Crook says that Europe is wrong to move to fiscal austerity immediately:
Clive Crook: [U:]nforced austerity is bad for Germany (though it might be good politics for Angela Merkel). Britain’s new government has a much more serious public debt problem but its fiscal plans – which gave rise to much boasting in Toronto – also look needlessly severe. Europe as a whole seems intent on one-size-fits-all austerity, despite limping output and very low inflation. Some countries have no choice...
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