J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2269

What Is CBO Doing with Its Long-Term Budget Outlook.

Last year the 75-year fiscal gap was 3.2% of GDP under the current-law baseline and 8.1% under the alternative fiscal scenario.

This year--thanks to PAYGO and health-care reform--the 75-year gap under PAYGO is 0.7% of GDP--and under the alternative fiscal scenario is 8.7% of GDP.

That is a huge delta--both the effectiveness of the PPACA inr estranging cost growth and in the gap between current laws and congressional business-as-usual...

Signs of a Not-Good Payroll Number on Friday...

ADP has a number:

Private nonfarm payroll employment increased by 13,000 from May to June on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report™.  This is below consensus expectations of a 60,000 increase.

links for 2010-06-29

A Fine Theorem







Adam Posen: One Fiscal Size Does Not Fit All – a Korean lesson for Spain

AP: "European politicians, particularly in Germany, are visibly sick of Americans and others telling them that imposing uniform austerity beyond Greece and Portugal is in error. But facts are facts, and it is an error. The experience of the Asian Financial Crisis is directly relevant, and the willingness of the IMF to reconsider...

It's 1937 Again!

David Leonhardt:

Betting That Cutting Spending Won’t Derail Recovery: The world’s rich countries are now conducting a dangerous experiment. They are repeating an economic policy out of the 1930s — starting to cut spending and raise taxes before a recovery is assured — and hoping today’s situation is different enough to assure a different outcome. In effect, policy makers are betting that the private sector can make up for the withdrawal of stimulus over the next couple of years. If...

Timothy Burke on Why the Washington Post Would Do Us All a Favor by Shutting Down Now

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps? Timothy Burke:

Islands in the Mire « Easily Distracted: Try to imagine, if you will, a person buried alive, growing desperately weak, fighting and struggling... to reach up through the dirt in order to grab some nearby stones to pile on top of his grave.

That’s what watching the contemporary scene of mainstream journalism is like these days. Every day there’s some new bit of incremental suicide. Just take the last week. We had...

Rajiv Sethi: On Blogs and Economic Discourse

Rajiv Sethi:

Rajiv Sethi: Athreya argued... that most such blogging is done by ill-informed hacks who ought to be ignored while properly trained experts (such as himself) are left in peace.... The original post has been taken down but (as a telling reminder that no public statement can subsequently be made private in this day and age) a copy may be viewed here.

The response from the accused was swift and brutal....

I'd like to take this opportunity to reiterate and expand upon...

Why the Republican Party Should Shut Itself Down Today, for the Good of the Country

Kevin Drum:

Boehner vs. Boehner: Now that the Republican caucus has apparently decided to unanimously oppose any reform of our financial system, House GOP leader John Boehner explains his party's objections to the final bill reported out of conference last week:

This is killing an ant with a nuclear weapon.

And here is Boehner's spokesman "explaining" what he meant:

It's clear Boehner is not minimizing the crisis America faced — he is pointing out that...

Mollie Panter-Downes Liveblogs World War II: June 29, 1940

The New Yorker's Letter from London:

It would be difficult for an impartial observer to decide today whether the British are the bravest or merely the most stupid people in the world. The way they are acting in the present situation could be used to support either claim. The individual Englishman seems to be singularly unimpressed by the fact that there is now nothing between him and the undivided attention of a war machine such as the world has never seen before.... One morning this...

Brian Beutler Twitters: I ask top GOPers which Thurgood Marshall opinions typified his judicial activism. Hilarity ensues

Twitter / Brian Beutler: I ask top GOPers which Thu ...:

I ask top GOPers which Thurgood Marshall opinions typified his judicial activism. Hilarity ensues. http://bit.ly/cI84Nb

Duncan Black: And Speaking Of Bond Vigilantes: 10-Year Treasury dropped below 3%. Quick, fire some teachers!!!!