J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2231

Jobless Recovery Watch

Ryan Avent:

Microclimates Are Evil II

Well, I found a windbreaker in my office. And it has warmed up to 60. And they have turned on the big heat lamps at Cafe Strada at Bancroft and College. So I will not have to cancel my outdoor office hours due to inclement weather at all...

Liveblogging World War II: August 12, 1940

WWII Day-by-Day:

World War II Day-By-Day: Day 347 August 12, 1940: Germans try out their new tactics. Numerous coastal radar installations are bombed but most are repaired and operational by the end of the day, although Ventnor (Isle of Wight) is badly damaged and will be out of action for 2 weeks. Luftwaffe mounts heavy raids on British airfields in Kent (Manston, Lympne & Hawkinge). Portsmouth is also bombed, leaving 100 civilians dead. To test the effects of knocking out radar...

First Draft of September 1 Principles of Macroeconomics Lecture: Depression Economics

2.1. The Need for Depression Economics

2.1.1. The Coming of the Great Recession

In December 2006 63.4% of American adults of working age had jobs. By December 2009 only 58.2% had jobs. Over those same three years the unemployment rate--which looks at a narrower group, not all American adults but only those who say that they are actively looking for work and would take a job if offered one--jumped from 4.4% to 10.0%.

Total production in the economy had stood at a level of $13.06 trillion...

Matt Bai's Incompetence is a Reason to Shut the New York Times Down Now and Let the Good Journalists Get Picked Up by Other Outlets

Tim Fernholz:

: Matt Bai writes about the Paul Ryan's budget plan ... without writing about Paul Ryan's budget plan:

“He’s not saying the world’s going to be full of butterscotch sundaes,” is how [former Republican Florida Governor:] Jeb Bush described the plan to me recently. “He’s saying: ‘Eat your broccoli. And then maybe you don’t get to eat at all for a few days. You don’t get steak — ever.’”

Unless, of course, you're...

Microclimates Are Evil

It's 52F degree, and here I am outside in a short-sleeved shirt, shivering.

Ezra Klein: The Bush tax plan vs. the Obama tax plan in one chart

Ezra Klein - The Bush tax plan vs. the Obama tax plan in one chart:

For a 70% Top Tax Rate

Emmanuel Saez, Joel Slemrod, and Seth H. Giertz (2010), "The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review":

The Elasticity of Taxable Income with Respect to Marginal Tax Rates: A Critical Review: This paper critically surveys the large and growing literature estimating the elasticity of taxable income with respect to marginal tax rates (ETI) using tax return data. First, we provide a theoretical framework showing under what assumptions this...

Liquidity Trap, Chapter n

Peter F. Basile, John Landon-Lane, and Hugh Rockoff (2010), "Money and Interest Rates in the United States during the Great Depression":

Money and Interest Rates in the United States during the Great Depression: This paper reexamines the debate over whether the United States fell into a liquidity trap in the 1930s. We first review the literature on the liquidity trap focusing on Keynes's discussion of “absolute liquidity preference” and the division that soon emerged between Keynes, who...

Will We See Deflation II?

André Meier's answer is "probably not."

André Meier (2010), "Still Minding the Gap: Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps":

Abstract: This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil...