J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2221
August 24, 2010
Identifying Cyclical vs. Structural Unemployment: A Guide for Slate Writers
Over at Slate, James Ledbetter says that he cannot referee between the two gangs of economists warring over the causes of high unemployment.
But he is wrong.
He can.
Here is how:
Suppose that you have not cyclical unemployment generated by a collapse in aggregate demand but structural unemployment generated by mismatch, suppose you have a situation in which the structure of demand by consumers is different from the jobs that workers are capable of filling. Suppose--this is...
Gavyn Davies Says: Double Dip
Davies:
US economy is slowing more than the Fed has recognised: I am becoming increasingly concerned about the extent of the slowdown which is now underway in the US economy, a trend which has not yet been fully recognised by the Federal Reserve... the pick up in more sustainable sources of growth, notably consumers’ expenditure and capital investment, has so far been more anaemic than I had hoped, and the improvement in the labour market may be going into reverse. The Fed may soon be...
The Invisible Bond Market Vigilantes Are on the Trail Yet Again...
^TNX: Summary for CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No- Yahoo! Finance:
Please: Obama: recess-appoint two Federal Reserve governors and then call the Senate and House back into session.
But Narayana Kocherlakota Was Supposed to Be the Really Smart and Reality-Based Minnesota Economist!
This was something that John Stuart Mill and Jean-Baptiste Say had gotten right in 1829.
Our problem is not that there is a shift in demand from construction to manufacturing, and we have to move workers from construction to manufacturing. Our problem is that there has been a shift in demand from currently-produced goods and services to safe high-quality assets and that as a result workers in goods-and-services-producing industries have been fired. There is no counterbalancing sector in...
Another Data Point that the Failure to Staff the Federal Government Has Been Obama's Biggest Failure
Matthew Yglesias:
Fed Split: Kill me now as the WSJ makes it clear that the FOMC is sharply divided over monetary policy: “At least seven of the 17 Fed officials gathered around the massive oval boardroom table, made of Honduran mahogany and granite, spoke against the proposal or expressed reservations. At the end of an extended debate, Mr. Bernanke settled the issue by pushing successfully to proceed with the move.”
Sure would’ve been nice for Barack Obama to have had some nominees...
We Are Not Making It Up as We Go Along
But I share Paul Krugman's strong sense that many in the Pain Caucus are--that they start with a prejudice that more unemployment is somehow better, and look for arguments to justify that.
Paul Krugman:
Making It Up: [O:]ther things equal, demand is higher, the lower the real interest rate. Do you really want to quarrel with that? But right now, thanks to the aftermath of the financial crisis, even a zero nominal rate, which is a slightly negative real rate, isn’t low enough to produce...
Liveblogging World War II
London, August 24, 1940:
Drew Middleton, The Sky Suspended: The Battle of Britain May 1940-April 1941: A baby cried. A woman woke, comforted it, opened her dress and gave it her breast. The woman looked up, 'Awful ain't it, but we can't get in to them big shelters and those ones on the street are terrible dangerous.'
When I came out I saw Micky's small figure standing by the door of his shelter. There was the rumbling roar of a stick of bombs falling across the river and that...
August 23, 2010
Hermann Goering Liveblogs World War II: August 23, 1940
Hermann Goering orders:
Goering: to continue the fight against the enemy air force until further notice, with the aim if weakening the British fighter forces. The enemy is to be forced to use his fighters by means of ceaseless attacks. In addition the aircraft industry and the ground organization of the air force are to be attacked by means of individual aircraft by night and day, if weather conditions do not permit the use of complete formations.
links for 2010-08-23
Felix Salmon: The Cruelty of HAMP: http://tinyurl.com/24bnfvg #worthreading
The Chosen Peoples eBook by Todd Gitlin, Liel Leibovitz - Simon & Schuster
Too Gitlin and Leil Lobovitz: The Chosen Peoples: http://tinyurl.com/23wld7o #worthreading
Inkling - Interactive textbooks for iPad.
...
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