J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2217
August 29, 2010
links for 2010-08-29
Alan Blinder: "Now I'm looking at the political system turning itself into a paralyzed beast" http://tinyurl.com/24fuq8y #worthreading
Brad DeLong: Bring Your Genes to Your Life Insurance Sales Representative « The Berkeley Blog
DeLong: Against Claims that the North Atlantic Today Suffers from "Structural...
What I Hope Is the Last Word on Stephen Williamson...
A question from the floor:
Stephen Williamson Makes His Play for the Second Stupidest Man AliveTM Crown: Andy writes:
As I understand Kocherlakota and Williamson, theyre saying that in the long run, fundamentals determine the real return, r (ie monetary neutrality). The Fed then can choose i or pi and the other is then pegged. So low interest rates lead to deflation.... I thought the Fisher equation is a (long-run) no-arbitrage condition. In that sense, theres no reason to...
Preliminary: U.C. Berkeley Economic History Seminar: Fall 2010
Fall 2010
M 2-3:30, Evans Hall 597
J. Bradford DeLong delong@econ.berkeley.edu, Christina D. Romer cromer@econ.berkeley.edu, Joshua K. Hausman jhausma1@gmail.com
Aug 30: Organizational Meeting
Sep 6: Labor Day Holiday
Sep 13: Mrdjan M. Mladjan
Sep 20: Economic History Association Week
Sep 27: Nathan Sussman: “Taxation Mechanisms and Growth in Medieval Paris”
Oct 11: Jeff Greenbaum
Oct 18: Oliver Falck
Oct 25...
Stephen Williamson Makes His Play for the Second Stupidest Man AliveTM/ Crown
Narayana Kocherlakota of the Pain Caucus, President of the Minneapolis Fed, wrote that the Federal Reserve must raise interest rates before too long a time has passed or else its low interest rate policy will generate deflation:
Narayana Kocherlakota Speech: But over the long run, money is, as we economists like to say, neutral.... [I:]f the FOMC maintains the fed funds rate at its current level of 0-25 basis points for too long, both anticipated and actual inflation have to become...
George Orwell Liveblogs World War II: August 29 "There Will Always Be an England" Edition
George Orwell:
THE ORWELL PRIZE: Air-raid alarms during the last 3 nights have totalled about 16-18 hours for the three nights.... It is perfectly clear that these night raids are intended chiefly as a nuisance, and as long as it is taken for granted that at the sound of the siren everyone must dive for the shelter, Hitler only needs to send his planes over half-a-dozen at a time to hold up work and rob people of sleep to an indefinite extent. However, this idea is already wearing...
The New York Times's New Public Editor Gets Off to a Bad Start
Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?
Arthur Brisbane:
To fulfill the public editor’s charge, I plan to write columns and blog posts, publish readers’ letters, reply to readers privately, and otherwise mediate an exchange between The Times and its audience.... I believe that journalists should leave their political views at the door when they report and edit the news. I’m a registered Democrat who voted for Barack Obama and then Scott Brown, so, as you can see, I have already...
August 28, 2010
links for 2010-08-28
Why We Need a Second Stimulus - The New York Times
Why We Need a Second Stimulus - Laura Tyson http://icio.us/xexdge #worthreading
Peter Howitt: Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations
Rajiv Sethi: Lessons from the Kocherlakota Controversy
Rajiv Sethi; Lessons from the Kocherlakota...
Liveblogging World War II: August 28, 1940
World War II Day-By-Day:
World War II Day-By-Day: Battle of Britain Day 50. With fine weather, Germans mount 4 raids of 60-100 aircraft bombing RAF airfields in Southern England, from 8.30 AM to 7 PM. Most are turned back by RAF fighters and little damage is done to airfields. Germans lose 19 Bf109 fighters, 8 bombers and a WWI-era Gotha biplane bomber which crash lands on Lewes racecourse. RAF loses 20 fighters, including 3 Defiants of 264 Squadron which are still easy prey for...
Liveblogging World War II: August 8, 1940
World War II Day-By-Day:
World War II Day-By-Day: Battle of Britain Day 50. With fine weather, Germans mount 4 raids of 60-100 aircraft bombing RAF airfields in Southern England, from 8.30 AM to 7 PM. Most are turned back by RAF fighters and little damage is done to airfields. Germans lose 19 Bf109 fighters, 8 bombers and a WWI-era Gotha biplane bomber which crash lands on Lewes racecourse. RAF loses 20 fighters, including 3 Defiants of 264 Squadron which are still easy prey for...
Double-Dip Probabilities
Donald Marron:
The Yield Spread and the Odds of Recession « Donald Marron: [H:]ow likely is a return to recession? Researchers at the San Francisco Fed [Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà:] took a crack at this question a few weeks ago. Their answer? It depends.
When they used a traditional model based on the leading economic indicators, the probability of a second dip turned out to be about 25% over the next two years (the blue line). When they dropped one indicator from their model...
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