J. Bradford DeLong's Blog, page 2217

August 29, 2010

What I Hope Is the Last Word on Stephen Williamson...

A question from the floor:




Stephen Williamson Makes His Play for the Second Stupidest Man AliveTM Crown: Andy writes:




As I understand Kocherlakota and Williamson, theyre saying that in the long run, fundamentals determine the real return, r (ie monetary neutrality).  The Fed then can choose i or pi and the other is then pegged.  So low interest rates lead to deflation.... I thought the Fisher equation is a (long-run) no-arbitrage condition.  In that sense, theres no reason to...

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Published on August 29, 2010 20:04

Preliminary: U.C. Berkeley Economic History Seminar: Fall 2010

Preliminary: U.C. Berkeley Economic History Seminar

Fall 2010

M 2-3:30, Evans Hall 597

J. Bradford DeLong delong@econ.berkeley.edu, Christina D. Romer cromer@econ.berkeley.edu, Joshua K. Hausman jhausma1@gmail.com



Aug 30: Organizational Meeting

Sep 6: Labor Day Holiday

Sep 13: Mrdjan M. Mladjan

Sep 20: Economic History Association Week

Sep 27: Nathan Sussman: “Taxation Mechanisms and Growth in Medieval Paris”

Oct 11: Jeff Greenbaum

Oct 18: Oliver Falck

Oct 25...

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Published on August 29, 2010 17:39

Stephen Williamson Makes His Play for the Second Stupidest Man AliveTM/ Crown

Narayana Kocherlakota of the Pain Caucus, President of the Minneapolis Fed, wrote that the Federal Reserve must raise interest rates before too long a time has passed or else its low interest rate policy will generate deflation:




Narayana Kocherlakota Speech: But over the long run, money is, as we economists like to say, neutral.... [I:]f the FOMC maintains the fed funds rate at its current level of 0-25 basis points for too long, both anticipated and actual inflation have to become...

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Published on August 29, 2010 13:14

George Orwell Liveblogs World War II: August 29 "There Will Always Be an England" Edition

George Orwell:




THE ORWELL PRIZE: Air-raid alarms during the last 3 nights have totalled about 16-18 hours for the three nights.... It is perfectly clear that these night raids are intended chiefly as a nuisance, and as long as it is taken for granted that at the sound of the siren everyone must dive for the shelter, Hitler only needs to send his planes over half-a-dozen at a time to hold up work and rob people of sleep to an indefinite extent.  However, this idea is already wearing...

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Published on August 29, 2010 12:10

The New York Times's New Public Editor Gets Off to a Bad Start

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?



Arthur Brisbane:




To fulfill the public editor’s charge, I plan to write columns and blog posts, publish readers’ letters, reply to readers privately, and otherwise mediate an exchange between The Times and its audience.... I believe that journalists should leave their political views at the door when they report and edit the news. I’m a registered Democrat who voted for Barack Obama and then Scott Brown, so, as you can see, I have already...

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Published on August 29, 2010 12:08

August 28, 2010

Liveblogging World War II: August 28, 1940

World War II Day-By-Day:







World War II Day-By-Day: Battle of Britain Day 50. With fine weather, Germans mount 4 raids of 60-100 aircraft bombing RAF airfields in Southern England, from 8.30 AM to 7 PM. Most are turned back by RAF fighters and little damage is done to airfields. Germans lose 19 Bf109 fighters, 8 bombers and a WWI-era Gotha biplane bomber which crash lands on Lewes racecourse. RAF loses 20 fighters, including 3 Defiants of 264 Squadron which are still easy prey for...

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Published on August 28, 2010 12:52

Liveblogging World War II: August 8, 1940

World War II Day-By-Day:







World War II Day-By-Day: Battle of Britain Day 50. With fine weather, Germans mount 4 raids of 60-100 aircraft bombing RAF airfields in Southern England, from 8.30 AM to 7 PM. Most are turned back by RAF fighters and little damage is done to airfields. Germans lose 19 Bf109 fighters, 8 bombers and a WWI-era Gotha biplane bomber which crash lands on Lewes racecourse. RAF loses 20 fighters, including 3 Defiants of 264 Squadron which are still easy prey for...

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Published on August 28, 2010 12:52

Double-Dip Probabilities

Donald Marron:




The Yield Spread and the Odds of Recession « Donald Marron: [H:]ow likely is a return to recession? Researchers at the San Francisco Fed [Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà:] took a crack at this question a few weeks ago. Their answer? It depends.



When they used a traditional model based on the leading economic indicators, the probability of a second dip turned out to be about 25% over the next two years (the blue line). When they dropped one indicator from their model...

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Published on August 28, 2010 10:36

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