Paul Krugman's Blog, page 619
July 31, 2009
How far out of line is the unemployment rate?
There have been a number of assertions that the unemployment rate is much higher than we should have expected, given the decline in GDP. Now we have updated GDP numbers, which include a revision that makes the decline in GDP since the end of 2007 bigger than previously reported. How much mystery is left?
Here's my [...:]
Here's my [...:]
It's all fine
There is no racism in America.
No sexism, either.
No sexism, either.
It's a postmodern recovery
Given today's GDP release, which showed the economy contracting slowly in the second quarter, it's a good bet that the recession has either already ended or will end soon - by which I mean that when the NBER business cycle dating committee retroactively makes its pronouncement of when the recession ended, it will put the [...:]
July 30, 2009
Enzi?
Talking Points has a story about how Max Baucus is trying to craft a health deal with Mike Enzi at the table. Aside from the fact that Enzi, like Baucus, represents a mountainous state with very few people, it's hard to see what possible common ground Baucus thinks he'll find.
The central fact of the health [...:]
The central fact of the health [...:]
The lessons of 1979-82
One argument you often hear from anti-Keynesians - it pops up in comments here - is that the experience of stagflation in the 1970s proved Keynesian wrong. It didn't; what it did disprove was the naive Phillips curve, which said that there's a stable tradeoff between unemployment and inflation. By the end of the [...:]
July 29, 2009
Medicare versus insurers
I notice from comments that a fair number of readers think that Medicare has had runaway costs. What you need to ask is, runaway compared to what?
Here's the raw fact, from the National Health Expenditure data: since 1970 Medicare costs per beneficiary have risen at an annual rate of 8.8% - but insurance premiums have [...:]
Here's the raw fact, from the National Health Expenditure data: since 1970 Medicare costs per beneficiary have risen at an annual rate of 8.8% - but insurance premiums have [...:]
CB uh-oh
Stan Collender writes about the role CBO is playing in the health care debate - and he's worried. So am I.
When Doug Elmendorf came out with his pronouncement that giving MedPAC much more authority would do essentially nothing to curb costs, my immediate reaction was deep puzzlement. Serious health care economists, like my colleague Uwe [...:]
When Doug Elmendorf came out with his pronouncement that giving MedPAC much more authority would do essentially nothing to curb costs, my immediate reaction was deep puzzlement. Serious health care economists, like my colleague Uwe [...:]
July 28, 2009
Speechless
Bill O'Reilly explaining that of course America has lower life expectancy than Canada - we have 10 times as many people, so we have 10 times as many deaths.
I need a drink.
I need a drink.
Irresponsible punditry
Pundits don't have to be right about everything - in fact, if you write a newspaper column and you never make a prediction that turns out wrong, you're not taking enough risks. They do, however, owe it to the public to make enough effort to get basic facts right. (Note to readers: having a different [...:]
