Cary Neeper's Blog: Reviewing World-changing Nonfiction - Posts Tagged "future"

Wildlife ecologist and conservation biologist Brian Czech takes us on a readable and essential tour of economics—its history, its foibles, and its coming salvation, what some have called a Full-Earth Economy, one that recognizes the limits to resources in a world with seven billion Homo sapiens.

In a careful analysis of the impact of economic policy on politics and our natural world, Czech offers solutions that seem, not only reasonable, but necessary and inevitable if we are to revert to a pleasant long-term existence in a comfortable world of sharing and conservation.

In a thorough discussion of our current situation, the literature, and various reactions to economic dilemmas, Czech demonstrates that growth now erodes our ecological foundations. He doesn’t miss discussing any of the caveats, like technology as salvation. He demonstrates clearly that technology also has costs, but can be selective, developed only when it adds to the efficiency of end use.

To the charge that steady state economics is stagnation--he points out that stability and minimal throughput set us free as we share and ease back creatively, with time to live more engaged lives. This is a must-read for anyone interested in everything from the future and economics to ecology.Supply Shock: Economic Growth at the Crossroads and the Steady State Solution

In the Introduction, Gore summarizes the current trends that provide challenges for how we make choices for the future: the global economy, electronic communications, a new balance of political, economic and military power, unsustainable growth, powerful new science technologies, and the emergence of a new relationship between human civilization and Earth's ecology.

The details he provides in the first 100 pages range from new technology to internet influences and the problems with current economics and Citizens United. Looks like this will be a valuable resource for anyone writing about our prospects for the future.

I'm especially encouraged by his understanding of how complexity impacts these issues and by the extensive Bibliography, Index and Notes he provides.The Future: Six Drivers of Global ChangeAl Gore

Review of the Working Paper from the Post Carbon Pathways Project
Posted on 3 April 2014

Don’t miss this valuable source of useful options to move beyond growth economics. Alexander's article includes a thoughtful review of current and past thinking about classical and no-growth economics, an extensive list of references, and ten challenging prompts – read these, if nothing else – for anyone and everyone concerned with the global situation and a transition to a more rational future.

*lecturer with the Office for Environmental Programs, University of Melbourne, fellow with the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute and co-director of the Simplicity In

http://archivesofvarok.com/articles/r...

Eco-Economy: Building An Economy For the Earth, New York, W. W. Norton, 2001 and Plan B:Rescuing a Planet under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, New York, W. W. Norton, 2003.

Our world view is changing, thanks in large part to these books. Everyday I encounter new voices in the social media that understand Lester Brown and the solutions presented by him and the several other authors, each with his own slant on the same problem.

We are capable of pulling back. We are not lemmings, each one of millions running desperately into the sea to relieve the stress of overcrowding or desperate to find relief from thirst. Not yet. At least not all of us.

Still, many of us are hungry or desperate, and some of us need to get busy using less, being more efficient and awakening to the crisis already affecting too many humans and too much life on this beautiful Eden, Earth.

Lester Brown’s Worldwatch Institute gave us the first warnings year after year with real data. And the 2001 book Eco-Economy gave us a reliable guide to the policies needed to secure the future.

Recent books echo Brown’s 2003 Plan B. Some refine the detailed options, but all agree on the ever more desperate need for the world view that requires an ecologically honest cost/benefit analysis. We still tout economic growth as a panacea for all our economic ills when in fact it is costing us and the Earth far more than it is worth.

The solutions outlined by Brown should be blatantly obvious: Our resource base must be analyzed in relationship to projected population growth. Our barriers to family planning need to be removed. Ecology and efficiency must trump short-term economic gain. Protecting our remaining world resources like water and forests is now urgent, as is the upgrading of our cities.

We can do this, as Plan B and Eco-Economy and other recent books make crystal clear. The solutions have been studied and refined since the 1970’s. It’s not magic, just political will and corporate greed that stand in our way. People in developed countries need to use less. We need to shift the tax and subsidy codes; get off fossil fuels, coal and plastic; increase efficiency in electrical grids and automobiles; and redo urban transport. (I have a vivid childhood memory of the rails being torn up in Oakland, California.)

The media can help, as can the wealthy and writers of fiction. Brown tells the tale of soap operas successfully illustrating how individuals can make a huge difference. Fiction can be a powerful paradigm changer.

We cannot buy our way out of overusing the planet, nor the lemming-like desperation of overcrowding that threatens human populations throughout the world. We’re all in this together.

The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality by Richard Heinberg, BC Canada, New Society Publishers, 2011.

I have never understood why mainstream economic theory ignored the impact of a huge population. Even as that impact has grown, classical economists continue to use outmoded theories of macroeconomics, ignore effects of the flow of capital, and refuse to acknowledge that there could be a limit to the resources so many billions of people use or need—like water. Isn’t that a requirement for life? Like air. Will they be selling clean air next?

Heinberg makes the case that we have seen the end of growth because it is doing us more harm than good. It is not a panacea for jobs and well-being. The nations that now have stable populations have an excellent opportunity to implement policies that will insure quality in living, find relief from the rat race, and enable the growth of knowledge and innovation within Earth’s limits.

In reviewing this paradigm-changing book, the most useful review I could write would be to provide a simple list of short quotes from the experts whose reviews appear in Heinberg’s book:

[He presents] “...the big three drivers of inevitable crisis—resource constraints, environmental impacts, and financial system overload...one integrated systemic problem...” Paul Gilding

“Our coming shift from quantity of consumption to quality of life is the great challenge of our generation...” John Fullerton

“The end of conventional economic growth would be a shattering turn of events—but the book makes a persuasive case...” Lester Brown

“...the beginning of a new era or progress without growth.” Herman Daly

“...analysis of the reality of ecological limits...very readable...paying attention to nuance and counterarguments.” Leslie E. Christian

“Heinberg has masterfully summarized and updated the case against economics, and its fraudulent scorecard—GDP...we all can still grow in wisdom and ...knowledge...as we transition to the Solar Age. Hazel Henderson

“...crammed full of ideas, information and perspective...for the perplexed...” James Gustave Speth

“...the sooner we have this critically needed conversation...the better...” Annie Leonard

“...clears away many...mistaken assumptions...” Bill McKibben

[He tells us that] “...the expectation of unending growth dominates public policy—and how ephemeral that goal is likely to prove.” Michael Klare

The story of 40 years developing fiction that portrays solutions to secure the future,including award-winner The Webs of Varok. Social issues in an alternate 21st century solar system.
http://archivesofvarok.com/articles/t...

Hot, Flat and Crowded: Why We Need a Green Revolution and How It Can Renew America by Thomas L. Friedman, New York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2008.

Unlike many valuable books reminding us why we Americans must pull back on our overuse of the planet, Hot, Flat and Crowded focuses on the observation that the world’s economies are so interconnected (i.e. The Earth is flat.), the more we depend on high energy usage the more we support those who hate us. His message is a simple challenge—we know how. As Shawne teaches in our novel soon to be released (The Alien Effect) “You in America were the first to build too rich a life. Now you must do better. You know how to become the example to the world you used to be—an example of a much simpler, time-rich life that will preserve and enhance Earth’s beauty and diversity for all its natural time.”

Friedman’s anecdotes are precise, his challenges direct, and the consequences of failure frightening. We know what we have to do to pick up the lead being taken by Japan and Europe, to devise what he calls a “Code Green” now. This book was published in 2008.

René DubosThe Wooing of EarthNew York, Charles Scribner’s Sons, 1980.

The 1970’s explosion of interest in environmental degradation was tempered in 1980 by a voice we need to hear now, in this age of dystopias that go on and on. René Dubos--the Pulitzer Prize winner for So Human An Animal and microbiologist who demonstrated that microbes could provide us with antibiotics--reminds us that we can do better. In fact, we have. The human imprint on Earth was beautifully integrated, when we respected nature’s answers and restrained our tendency to ride roughshod over its genius.

We don’t need to cut down all the trees on planet Earth—not even those in our neighborhood—just enough to keep warm or grow something to eat. It was done in the ages-old hedgerows of Europe and Great Britain, which became interesting biosystems, as well as windbreaks and fences. The examples go on and on in this book. We need the reminder of good examples, for, apparently, in much of the world, we have forgotten how to do it, or we don’t care how much we pave and tear down.

In some areas and in the past our restraint and creative talents have created new environments enhanced by cultural inventions unimagined in the beginning. Benefit has come to both humanity and nature when we realized the necessity of those benefits and were wise enough to leave them alone.

We don’t have to pave every square foot or cut down every tree to maximize profit. By leaving to themselves a decent portion of wild lives and natural phenomena, we can use our common sense to work with planet Earth to create its best and most lovely potential. Only then will we secure the future for Homo sapiens. Dubos has shown us how it used to be done.

The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View From the Future by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway (Columbia University Press, 2014) Is this just another dystopia, an academic one? If you read this book, please don’t neglect to read the current books outlining the long-term solutions we desperately need: Dietz and O’Neill’s Enough Is Enough, Lester R. Brown’s writings. Or if you like an entertaining fiction, read award-winner The Webs of Varok and the rest of The Archives of Varok series. A double release is coming November 3. http://penscript-publishing.com/news-... Stay tuned.

I’ll read Oreskes and Conway’s book and review it next month. Meanwhile, I am shocked by what it might have missed, as reported in Scientific American August 2014.
I agree with the authors that current “anti-intellectualism” has prevented the West from acting intelligently on “scientific knowledge available at the time.” They list several causes for this, but apparently have neglected several facts—that we are not conserving, not even recognizing our resource limits; that living things, including humans, are already moving north; and that too many are hungry and ill. I hope they include these disturbing situations and focus on the difficult solutions that are clearly stated by other authors. We aren't required to sit back and watch dystopias play out. We know what we have to do. Comments are invited at ScientificAmerican.com/aug2014 and here, of course.

From Frank Kaminski of resilence.org
http://www.resilience.org/stories/201...
By turns wondrous, wise, witty, tense and gripping...an auspicious new entry in this daring series that refuses to stick with easy answers or safe issues...finds just the right balance between candid political commentary and a tale...for both adult and young-adult readers. Frank Kaminski, Resilience.org

And from Douglas R. Cobb:"... a fantastic book, and my review of it is at:
http://guardianlv.com/2014/11/the-ali... ..."captivating characters and the main character, Shawne, has a noble goal she pursues, despite being met with people who do not always like the message she is trying to teach them. ...reading the first two books in the series is highly recommended, as they are both great, and will provide useful background to help understand and get into The Alien Effect quicker."