Mastering The Market Cycle Quotes

“The forecasts that are potentially valuable are those that correctly foresee deviation from long-term trends and recent levels. If a forecaster makes a non-conforming, non-extrapolation prediction that turns out to be correct, the outcome is likely to come as a surprise to the other market participants.”
― Howard Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

“What do value investors do? They strive to take advantage of discrepancies between “price” and “value.” In order to do that successfully, they have to (a) quantify an asset’s intrinsic value and how it’s likely to change over time and (b) assess how the current market price compares with the asset’s intrinsic value, past prices for the asset, the prices of other assets, and “theoretically fair” prices for assets in general.”
― Howard Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

“Superior investors are people who have a better sense for what tickets are in the bowl, and thus for whether it’s worth participating in the lottery. In other words, while superior investors — like everyone else — don’t know exactly what the future holds, they do have an above-average understanding of future tendencies.”
― Howard Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the odds on your side

“The second is Warren Buffett’s bedrock reminder of the need to adjust our financial actions based on the investor behavior playing out around us. Fewer words, but probably even more useful: The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the greater the prudence with which we should conduct our own affairs.”
― Howard Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

“And it’s only if we know more than others (whether that consists of having better data; doing a superior job of interpreting the data we have; knowing what actions to take on the basis of or our interpretation; or having the emotional fortitude required to take those actions) that our forecasts will lead to outperformance.”
― Howard Marks, Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side