The Most Important Thing Quotes

“You can’t do the same things others do and expect to outperform. . . . Unconventionality shouldn’t be a goal in itself, but rather a way of thinking. In order to distinguish yourself from others, it helps to have ideas that are different and to process those ideas differently.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” Good times teach only bad lessons: that investing is easy, that you know its secrets, and that you needn’t worry about risk. The most valuable lessons are learned in tough times.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“In theory there’s no difference between theory and practice, but in practice there is.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor

“We hear a lot about “worst-case” projections, but they often turn out not to be negative enough. I tell my father’s story of the gambler who lost regularly. One day he heard about a race with only one horse in it, so he bet the rent money. Halfway around the track, the horse jumped over the fence and ran away. Invariably things can get worse than people expect. Maybe “worst-case” means “the worst we’ve seen in the past.” But that doesn’t mean things can’t be worse in the future. In 2007, many people’s worst-case assumptions were exceeded.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“所以也不會堅持低”
― Howard Marks, 投資最重要的事: 一本股神巴菲特讀了兩遍的書

“If we wait until the bottom has been passed and the price has started to rise, the rising price often causes others to buy, just as it emboldens holders and discourages them from selling. Supply dries up and it becomes hard to buy in size. The would-be buyer finds it’s too late.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“the pursuit of winners in the mainstream stock markets is unlikely to pay off for the investor. Instead, you should try to avoid hitting losers.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Everything I believe and recommend about investing proceeds from that school of thought. •   We should spend our time trying to find value among the knowable—industries, companies and securities—rather than base our decisions on what we expect from the less-knowable macro world of economies and broad market performance. •   Given that we don’t know exactly which future will obtain, we have to get value on our side by having a strongly held, analytically derived opinion of it and buying for less when opportunities to do so present themselves. •   We have to practice defensive investing, since many of the outcomes are likely to go against us. It’s more important to ensure survival under negative outcomes than it is to guarantee maximum returns under favorable ones. •   To improve our chances of success, we have to emphasize acting contrary to the herd when it’s at extremes, being aggressive when the market is low and cautious when it’s high. •   Given the highly indeterminate nature of outcomes, we must view strategies and their results—both good and bad—with suspicion until proved out over a large number of trials.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Investment success requires sticking with positions made uncomfortable by their variance with popular opinion.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“of “the turning of the wheel of the law,” implying acceptance of the inevitability of change, of rise and fall.... In other words, mujo means cycles will rise and fall, things will come and go, and our environment will change in ways beyond our control.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“One is beta, a measure of a portfolio’s relative sensitivity to market movements. The other is alpha, which I define as personal investment skill, or the ability to generate performance that is unrelated to movement of the market.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Too much capital availability makes money flow to the wrong places.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“The key during a crisis is to be (a) insulated from the forces that require selling and (b) positioned to be a buyer instead.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“It is hard for the average investor to commit capital to a new investment when the outlook is gloomy. Yet it is precisely in these moments that potential returns are at their highest.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“However, there are two concepts we can hold to with confidence: •   Rule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical. •   Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget rule number one.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Skillful investors can get a sense for the risk present in a given situation. They make that judgment primarily based on (a) the stability and dependability of value and (b) the relationship between price and value. Other things will enter into their thinking, but most will be subsumed under these two.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“What is the range of likely future outcomes? • Which outcome do I think will occur? • What’s the probability I’m right? • What does the consensus think? • How does my expectation differ from the consensus? • How does the current price for the asset comport with the consensus view of the future, and with mine? • Is the consensus psychology that’s incorporated in the price too bullish or bearish? • What will happen to the asset’s price if the consensus turns out to be right, and what if I’m right?”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“O apêndice de Warren Buffett para a quarta edição revisada de O investidor inteligente (livro de Benjamin Graham) descreve um concurso em que cada um dos 225 milhões de americanos começa com 1 dólar e lança uma moeda uma vez por dia. As pessoas que acertam no primeiro dia recolhem um dólar daqueles que erraram; é feito um novo lançamento no segundo dia, e assim por diante. Dez dias depois, 220 mil pessoas acertaram dez vezes seguidas e ganharam 1.000 dólares. “Talvez tentem ser modestas, mas, nas festas, admitirão ocasionalmente, aos membros atraentes do sexo oposto, suas técnicas e os maravilhosos insights que podem oferecer para o estudo do lançamento de moedas.” Depois de mais dez dias, estamos com 215 sobreviventes que acertaram vinte vezes seguidas e ganharam 1 milhão de dólares cada. Essas pessoas escrevem livros intitulados “Como transformei um dólar em um milhão em vinte dias trabalhando trinta segundos por manhã” e passam a ganhar dinheiro com palestras. Soa familiar?”
― Howard Marks, O mais importante para o investidor: Lições de um gênio do mercado financeiro

“When other investors are unworried, we should be cautious; when investors are panicked, we should turn aggressive.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“being part of the herd is a formula for disaster,”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Economies and markets cycle up and down. Whichever direction they’re going at the moment, most people come to believe that they’ll go that way forever. This thinking is a source of great danger since it poisons the markets, sends valuations to extremes, and ignites bubbles and panics that most investors find hard to resist.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing Illuminated: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“堅持低價買進、拒絕高價持有的卓越投資人就有機會創造更高的報酬。”
― Howard Marks, 投資最重要的事: 一本股神巴菲特讀了兩遍的書

“When things are going well and prices are high, investors rush to buy, forgetting all prudence. Then, when there’s chaos all around and assets are on the bargain counter, they lose all willingness to bear risk and rush to sell. And it will ever be so.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“good builder is able to avoid construction flaws, while a poor builder incorporates construction flaws. When there are no earthquakes, you can’t tell the difference.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“華倫·巴菲特教我耐心等待時機與反向投資；查理·蒙格（Charlie Munger）教我合理預期的重要性；”
― Howard Marks, 投資最重要的事: 一本股神巴菲特讀了兩遍的書

“It’s only when the tide goes out that you find out who’s been swimming naked.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“Put simply, if both a U.S. Treasury note and small company stock appeared likely to return 7 percent per year, everyone would rush to buy the former (driving up its price and reducing its prospective return) and dump the latter (driving down its price and thus increasing its return). This process of adjusting relative prices, which economists call equilibration, is supposed to render prospective returns proportional to risk.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“One of the great sayings about poker is that “in every game there’s a fish. If you’ve played for 45 minutes and haven’t figured out who the fish is, then it’s you.” The same is certainly true of inefficient market investing.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor

“In particular, you’ll find I spend more time discussing risk and how to limit it than how to achieve investment returns.”
― Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor