Geoff > Status Update

And just as a reminder, if anyone needs one: the covid outbreak will not help to protect us against the avian flu pandemic that's still on its way, and that is currently an order of magnitude deadlier than covid...

(although its fatality rate will probably fall in the process of becoming more suited for human-to-human transmission0

Wastrel wrote: "And just as a reminder, if anyone needs one: the covid outbreak will not help to protect us against the avian flu pandemic that's still on its way, and that is currently an order of magnitude deadl..."

Rats with wings!

Sorry, I’m reactionary.

Well, now everybody is quarantined, whether you're ill or not. But if you're released from quarantine when you recover from the illness, there's a financial incentive to get ill, so that you can recover.

[plus, to be honest, now is probably the best time to get infected anyway. Resources are ramping up, but (outside of Italy and Spain) the tsunami of cases isn't hitting yet, so you'd be better off getting infected now than in a couple of weeks. Probably better off still a few weeks ago, though, so you could be sure of getting out of hospital before it's overwhelmed. Of course, better not to get it at all, and there's always the chance it'll get less deadly, or we'll get better medication, so the optimistic play is to try to remain safe...]

Wastrel wrote: "Well, now everybody is quarantined, whether you're ill or not. But if you're released from quarantine when you recover from the illness, there's a financial incentive to get ill, so that you can re..."

The point of social distancing is to not have the disease spread so fast that it swamps the medical system and increase mortality rates from the disease. And while it might be nice to get it when resources aren't strained you will likely give it to someone who will inherit a more strained medical system a week or two later.

I was just reviewing the 2012 document produced by the National Intelligence Council titled "Global Trends 2030," which attempts to project forward several possible directions the world could take in the coming decades. (I used this document as reading material for a university student that I taught English when I was in South Korea, and I remembered some of its projections.) One warning I remembered was this:

"An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen
that kills or incapacitates more than one percent
of its victims is among the most disruptive events
possible. Unlike other disruptive global events, such
an outbreak would result in a global pandemic that
directly causes suffering and death in every corner
of the world, probably in less than six months."

The document also warned as one of its most negative possible outcomes that the world governments, including that of the U.S., would turn increasingly inward, eschew globalism, become protectionist and nationalist, and reverse previous trends of international cooperation.

One possible failing of the document was that, although it predicts continued global warming resulting in more extreme weather events and threats to food security, the tone of the document seems to downplay this relative to what we know today and gives more attention to economic concerns relative to America's ability to exploit energy resources such as shale gas.

Alfred wrote: "I'm not sure I understand this logic, and maybe not reading it properly... So someone actively tries to get infected so that they can get back to work? Shouldn't it be better to not be infected and stay employed (as in, not be required for quarantine)?"

This is something I've heard it said could be a problem *if* there were a scheme to give official special privileges to people who had already had it. (And those people in trying to get it therefore spread it to others, esp as the young and lower paid are more likely to have more social contacts and/or not live alone.)

But more seriously, we don't know enough at this point about recurring infection, which won't likely happen immediately after one recovers from it but 6 months later? 1 year?

Yes, that is absolutely an issue given how new the virus is and, as you presumably known, behaviour of a couple of common cold coronaviruses (immunity to which last about a year) and sometimes SARS 1 (antibody dependent enhancement - a second infection being worse - was observed in lab experiments trying to find a vaccine). Though a) quite a lot of virologists seem to be saying that based on characteristics of Cov-2, it seems more likely to produce the sort of normal longer lasting immunity we are used to from many other infectious diseases, and b) governments would surely be keen to get people back to work (even if there is a small risk people might only be immune temporarily, that still buys time for finding vaccines and more effective drugs).

There are reports of recurring infection from some places, but given the relative insensitivity (%s vary quite a bit between studies but roughly only 60-80%) of the naso-pharyngeal swabs currently being used as the main diagnostic tests in most places (which is why places that are being responsible/can afford it should do more than one if there's a negative at first), it's not out of the question these people had a couple of false negatives and the virus is just hanging around in their system for fucking ages. Yet another of the many problems associated with this thing being so new - not knowing stuff like this for sure yet.

Zadignose wrote: "The document also warned as one of its most negative possible outcomes that the world governments, including that of the U.S., would turn increasingly inward, eschew globalism, become protectionist and nationalist, and reverse previous trends of international cooperation."

And given we were already on that trajectory anyway the last few years ...
There were already enough comparisons to the 1930s around during the 2010s - probably going to be in for a lot more in the 2020s :(

To paraphrase an anonymous MP from a Sunday Times article from last weekend (which feels like a very long time ago), increased nationalism combined with increased socialist-style state intervention could be an uncomfortable combination.

Zadignose wrote: "One possible failing of the document was that, although it predicts continued global warming resulting in more extreme weather events and threats to food security, the tone of the document seems to downplay this relative to what we know today and gives more attention to economic concerns relative to America's ability to exploit energy resources such as shale gas."

Like most geopolitical stuff from that long ago that wasn't specifically focused on climate change and the environment...
Now shale companies are faltering because their business didn't add up financially even with the Trump administration not doing anywhere near enough on renewables, we have a temporary glut of oil due to the international shutdowns.
Seems like any projected dip in disposable packaging might not be happening soon as there are moves back towards it because of the virus. In the short term that is mostly going to be more plastic.

I wouldn't be surprised if there are societal/political changes to perception of risk after all this but how that will work, it's very hard to tell. Will there be less attention (esp on the political right & centre right) to longer term risks? Like climate change - the centre right outside the USA still pays some attention to this currently - or nuclear power? Or will there be more attention to the whole category of risks scientists warned about but which many didn't take seriously, longer or shorter term.

Zadignose wrote: "The document also warned as one of its most negative possible outcomes that the world governments, including that of the U.S., would turn increasingly inward, eschew globalism, become protectionist and nationalist, and reverse previous trends of international cooperation. ..."

The fact that was already happening for a few years before the pandemic makes an extreme outcome even more likely, I expect.

Wastrel wrote: "(and the Italian figures are probably the result of the healthcare system collapsing under the intensity of cases, so that many patients aren't properly treated, rather than the disease itself)."

Of course it's true that there's no clean way to separate deaths from natural calamity from deaths from a failing social order, but how is that even a little reassuring?

Yeah, Trump just suspended EPAs enforcement of environmental laws. They are pumping money to the investor class (of course they get paid) and are trying to float the idea of workforce sacrificing a few million lives for the economy. It just seems like an acceleration of business as usual for our ruling class.

Peter (Pete) wrote: "Yeah, Trump just suspended EPAs enforcement of environmental laws. They are pumping money to the investor class (of course they get paid) and are trying to float the idea of workforce sacrificing a..."

massive spike in unemployment means millions of Americans losing their healthcare in the middle of a pandemic... it's fucking bleak.

David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Yeah, Trump just suspended EPAs enforcement of environmental laws. They are pumping money to the investor class (of course they get paid) and are trying to float the idea of wo..."

looking forward to my #coronacash though.

David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Yeah, Trump just suspended EPAs enforcement of environmental laws. They are pumping money to the investor class (of course they get paid) and are trying to float the idea of wo..."

Late Capitalism (ideological masks are coming off).

David wrote: "David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Yeah, Trump just suspended EPAs enforcement of environmental laws. They are pumping money to the investor class (of course they get paid) and are trying to float ..."

The general population gets a spurious dribble in this crisis but I repeat investors are getting trillions injected to prop up their portfolios. Little people don't matter except as cannon fodder for the economy.

Oh shit, Penderecki dead (unrelated to Covid19, I believe) and John Prine now in critical condition with the 'rona...

A song for the near(ish) future, hopefully

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F82sy...

I know some people don't like stats but I am going to post this again anyway. Try to wrap your head behind what exponentials actually mean. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/ap...

A nuts and bolts video by numberphile on the logic of social distancing. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k6nLf...

Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/...

David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

Puts quarantine in San Francisco in some perspective, I suppose

Good grief. Puts New York into some perspective. Or soon will, I fear.

Alfred wrote: "Yep. All eyes are on China, country patient zero, that have successfully (maybe) flattened its curve. With the easing of travel restrictions, and an influx of imported cases, we'll learn so much more soon about what more this novel virus is capable of."

Well there is reported an uptick from Hong Kong so already potentially seeing that the virus may indeed just bounce back once restrictions are lifted.

As for "China, patient zero" will be interesting to see what comes of later investigations of the "strange pneumonias" reported from Nov/Dec in Italy. (If there are available samples that can be tested.)

This analysis of the virus suggests it might have jumped the species barrier a while ago and only affected small clusters of people until it went big in recent months
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4159...
(The two animals to whose viruses it is most similar are found in E/SE Asia which does suggest that it would have jumped in that area. Did it get to Italy earlier than to most other countries outside China, by some chance? Or were the cases Remizzi referred to something else again?)
Summary, with comment from director of the NIH (with caveat that I know it's the SCMP...):
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scien...

David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a paywall but I got the point social distancing is hard to come by for some groups.

Peter (Pete) wrote: "David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a paywall but I got the point social distancing is ha..."

you hit a paywall? for me it's free

Journals/magazines need to be lifting their paywalls right now.

Foreign Policy have a thing that looks like it's going to be a paywall when you're halfway down the page but you just click the "x" in the corner and it goes.
And obvs clear cookies frequently to read these articles.

David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a paywall but I got the point so..."

Basically, it sounds like the poor in India are much more likely to die from the quarantine than the actual virus...

David wrote: "David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a paywall but I go..."

I think it's the same dynamic playing out all over the world (certianly in the US), but in more extreme form.

David wrote: "David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a paywall but I go..."

Nope it wants money it isn't merely and ad pop.

David wrote: "David wrote: "David wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "David wrote: "Situation in India sounds grim

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/28/..."

I wanted to read but hit a pa..."

hmm, I definitely read it for free on my phone, but now when i click on it I'm seeing a paywall too

David wrote: "Journals/magazines need to be lifting their paywalls right now."

The Washington Post is still being a bastard about this. Can't even read one page without being told to switch off the adblocker (or in effect use a different browser if on Opera).

Antonomasia wrote: "David wrote: "Journals/magazines need to be lifting their paywalls right now."

The Washington Post is still being a bastard about this. Can't even read one page without being told to switch off th..."

I wrote to the New Left Review asking them to lift their paywalls for the duration of the crisis and an editor wrote back saying she would see what she could do.

Pornhub has made their premium membership free, bravo.

Peter (Pete) wrote: "Nope it wants money it isn't merely and ad pop."

It looks to me like a "one free article" thing - clear cookies, or open in different browser if not ready to clear cookies from this one (e.g. you want to stay logged into GR for now.)

Apparently Wake has been listening in and doesn't approve of the thread. I looked at his profile and it appears he blocked me so I blocked him out of symmetry calculations. My guess is that he is a right-wing creeper.

Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Apparently Wake has been listening in and doesn't approve of the thread. I looked at his profile and it appears he blocked me so I blocked him out of symmetry calculations. My ..."

yep sketchy profile with one rating and review and cryptic remarks. most likely a right-wing creeper.

probably a sock account. Be warned he will probably try to bring in his creepy buddies.

Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Apparently Wake has been listening in and doesn't approve of the thread. I looked at his profile and it appears he blocked me so I blocked him..."
you have all the charm of a date rapist.

Geoff wrote: "Me too. I actually think he's going to win. It's really really tough to try to envision that future."

Geoff is Wake a friend of your's he isn't one of mine. Dude's a creepshow.

Is anyone talking about Iceland lately? With 1,020 confirmed cases and a national population of 364,000, that's pretty hardcore. One out of 357 people infected? Yikes.

It hardly needs to be said, but get Bjork to immediate safety, and if Egil's ghost is wandering around anywhere, alert him to the need for social distancing. (Also ask for the location of his buried treasure.)

Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Apparently Wake has been listening in and doesn't approve of the thread. I looked at his profile and it appe..."

listen Creepy Wake the thread is there for all to see.

Zadignose wrote: "Is anyone talking about Iceland lately? With 1,020 confirmed cases and a national population of 364,000, that's pretty hardcore. One out of 357 people infected? Yikes."

Extent of testing of the asymptomatic / those with mild symptoms compared with countries where only those serious enough for hospitalisation, and sometimes not even all of those, are tested.
They are planning to screen the entire population a couple of times.

short article on why he is the worst person to be in charge during these crises......

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc...

Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Wake wrote: "Peter (Pete) wrote: "Apparently Wake has been listening in and doesn't approve of the thread. I..."

Creepy wake says after deleting comments

Michael wrote: "short article on why he is the worst person to be in charge during these crises......

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc..."

That article is awesome. We've needed this kind of bluntness every day for the last 3.25 years. Heck call it 7 years. To my great horror and grief, though, the people who most need to know all this are invulnerable to learning, and a fair percentage of those people whose main intellectual activity is hope are being embracing even greater delusions.

Zadignose wrote: "Michael wrote: "short article on why he is the worst person to be in charge during these crises......

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/arc..."

..."

we have had this bluntness but it was dismissed as hyperbole it isn't being dismissed right now.

Zadignose wrote: "Is anyone talking about Iceland lately? With 1,020 confirmed cases and a national population of 364,000, that's pretty hardcore. One out of 357 people infected? Yikes."

I have been talking regularly with a collaborator in Iceland. There is widespread frustration that the country hasn't already been put in lockdown, but the government refuses to act; the Minister of Health apparently has said several times that she is "doing things by the book". (What book?!) Last I heard, a few days ago, they were still letting tourists in, and, incredibly, tourists were arriving. Many of the COVID-19 cases can be traced back to them.

On the positive side, there is no exponential rise, and per capita testing is among the highest in the world. Anyone who wants one can get a test done quickly. There is a site, here, where you can get detailed updates.

the death rate has now reached 9/11 levels in the US

Thanks for the details!

Manny wrote: "the Minister of Health apparently has said several times that she is "doing things by the book". (What book?!) Last I heard, a few days ago, they were still letting tourists in, and, incredibly, tourists were arriving."

The same book Sweden is following?
Where are the tourists even coming from?

I think it's similar to the Swedish approach, though Sweden seems to be going even further.

All I know about the tourists is that one of the two people who've so far died was an Australian tourist. I'll ask the Icelanders for more details next time I talk to them!