Geoff > Status Update

Geoff
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Since it seems as likely as not that in a week DONALD FUCKING TRUMP is going to be declared commander-in-chief of the most powerful army humanity has ever known, I ask the good people of the world, what are you stocking your bomb shelters with? Also, half of America? Fuck you. I'm not one of you and I don't like you - stay away from me and my family you scary idiots.
— Nov 02, 2016 04:39AM
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https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/histo...

Yup. We have been long due an almighty fuckup, historically speaking. Europe in particular has been unnaturally peaceful for far too long. Our species just doesn't work like that.


What makes you think I haven't tried to understand Trump supporters? I've said many times they have legitimate complaints on many levels. But to elect this man is unforgivable.



https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/histo...-..."
Simply put, humans find a reason to invent a war when there's no war in living memory. The cyclical theory of history (as opposed to one of linear progression) has been around a long time, but I think the writer has stretched it too much to fit it to the last 50-70 years of world history. The scenario fits the developed world or the West better, because it is the West which has maintained unprecedented peace at home for the last 70 or so years. Much of the rest of the world hasn't been peaceful during the same time. That said, a war in a third world country does not have the scope to set the whole world on fire (well, one may argue against that) but a war or wars in powerful countries of the world will indeed engage the entire world, just as it did the last time (hence the World War I & II), only this time it would be bigger, scarier, and more deadly.


- armageddon. Trump can't be trusted with twitter, or with a woman alone, or with a microphone if anyone has just been rude to him. He can't be trusted with nuclear codes. He also has no understanding of either military strategy or of geopolitics, and makes decisions almost entirely on the basis of his (real or metaphorical) penis. The threat of a Seriously Bad Geopolitical Outcome - ranging from an expanding Russia to a major world war all the way up to nuclear winter cannot be discounted. To be clear, I still think it's unlikely. But it's much, much more likely now than it has been at any time since the fall of the Berlin Wall. We have, as it were, voluntarily stepped back under the shadow of existential terror.
- fascism. Now, I think it's right to say that immediate fascism is unlikely. It would be too much work. But I also think that depending on Trump's relationship with Congress there is a serious risk of, shall we say, substantial degradation of the democratic fabric. Trump is likely to, at the least, significantly attack the freedom of the press and the independence of the judiciary. Thousands of Trumpian judicial appointments could be a frightening concept - as could, even more likely (because it requires less work) Trumpian stacking of the FBI (DEA, ATF, etc), CIA, NSA, and eventually law enforcement. This could come to a head in race relations: Trump has already labelled BLM inherently "trouble" and called for much stronger responses to their provocations. There are likely to be more killings of black civilians, and I wouldn't be surprised to hear of police opening fire on crowds. It's only one step further to the return of lynchings. Abortion will certainly be severely restricted and perhaps outlawed, and Trump has promised harsh penalties for doctors involved in abortion, and possibly for women too. It's also likely that there will be a backlash to strip rights from gay citizens; an actual gay marriage ban will probably be beyond their ability, but as seen with abortion you don't need to ban the thing itself to have a sweeping, chilling effect on the thing in practice. America will not be a dictatorship in 4 or 8 years. But it may be much closer to a dictatorship then than it is now. And the further you go down that road, the harder it is to reverse course. [and to be honest, liberals should be kicking themselves now for having, under Obama, constructed the most repressive apparatus of extrajudicial state control that America has ever seen. Obama gave himself the power to have American citizens executed without trial; is that a power that we're happy for Trump to have?]
- right-wingers. With an almost open goal, it's a matter now only of how well the right can stick together to rack up the score on every issue imaginable, returning America to the 1920s. Although they'll lose a couple of fights along the way, mostly due to infighting, it's hard to see much standing in their way (especially as the midterms are expected to structurally favour them). Expect massive tax cuts for the rich, and healthcare stripped from the poor.
But there's a bright side! Assuming that armageddon doesn't actually happen, perhaps we can see this as a horrible four years of debilitating vomiting. The Republicans will have nobody but themselves (and the international gay jewish marxist banker conspiracy) to blame now. It may be better in the long run than four years of Clinton being unable to get a single bill passed.




A friend who works for my state health care dept said they're going straight into discussions of what programs to start cutting/suspending in light of the predicted decreases in Federal funding.


This was one of the two things I was fascinated by, watching CNN last night. County after county after county, even in swing states was coming up 65% Clinton, or 65% Trump; and even then, the presenters were explaining that often the majority and minority votes were coming from different parts of the counties. And that's before you introduce sociological dividers like class. And those are counties in swing states. I dread to think how homogenous some of the counties in strongly red or blue states must have been. We know this, of course - up until yesterday, only 1 in 6 US counties had voted for both parties in the last 16 years. But there's a difference between countries that are reliably 55-45, and counties that are reliably 65-35 or 75-25, and I was shocked by just how many of the latter and how few of the former there seemed to be.
[And it helps to explain how Trump supporters can be so delusional. You think you're in a bubble, imagine how bubbly you might be in Kansas. Kansas seemingly has 2 counties that are reliably democrat, 1 county that has swung both ways, and the whole of the rest of the state has voted Republican every election since 2000. [there's around 2100 counties in the US that have always voted Republican this millennium, compared to only about 450 that have always voted Democrat]. There's a block of at least 20 counties in Kansas in which every single county went for Trump by over 80%; in, appropriately enough, Wallace County, Trump got 91% of the vote, to Clinton's 6%. ]
The other thing that shocked me, incidentally, was the vocal stamina of American TV hosts, and how much cocaine they seemed to be on. Hour after hour of people speaking really, really quickly to the sound of dramatic drumming music, while gesturing jerkily and vaguely at continually changing pictures. And continually repeating themselves, not just in the inevitable "we've had nothing new to talk about for 30 minutes, so let's repeat it for casual viewers" way, but even to the extent of just saying sentences two or three times in a row (and still having Wolf Blitzer seemingly not understand the simplest things). It was like taking the Teletubbies, injecting them with intravenous caffeine in dangerous-to-life doses, and putting them in charge of explaining one of the world's largest and most complex elections to an audience of people who are stoned. Fascinating!

This article referenced by that article is also fantastic: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/...
tl;dr: Plato told y'all this was coming.

It's true that specific issues may not translate. The religious right, in particular, is both smaller and more polite in the UK (being more associated with our equivalent of country club republicans than with our equivalent of trump).
But Anto is right to say that if you don't like the general attitudes of Trump supporters, hardcore Brexiteers are the equivalent group here - in the sense of being populist, nationalist, xenophobic, conservative (though not as much as the US version), authoritarian, and generally only two nuremberg rallies short of a lynch mob. [and in both cases, the populists are essentially manipulated by a core of ultra-rich business interests who are ultimately in it for lower taxes and more deregulation]

That's fine and everything, but I was more trying to point out that many should've given this reality far greater odds than the 2% chance the Huff Post gave. I myself had it as 60/40 in favor of Hillary.
Forgive me for not being sensitive when I was literally laughed at by literally EVERYONE for a year with my prediction of this as a very likely possibility.

Anyway, beyond all that, as I said this was in the cards anyway, it's not a knee-jerk response to Trump. If Clinton won our plans would be the same, just now we'll likely speed them up.



Ironically, I think the complete opposite.
But I'm not interested in debating. Everyone is entitled to their opinions and arguing over the matter is just a waste of breath at this point.
I truly hope this country pulls together and overcomes the sharp divide. The vicious attacks on social media aren't helping the matter. If Hillary won, I'd congratulate you all, hope she succeeds, and look forward to making it up in the next election. This is what I did for Obama 2 consecutive elections.

On the whole of it, I will probably be fine. I look white, I have a profession and hobbies that I love, and I do not worry about money. It's everyone else that concerns me. What about the environment, or trade, or women or minorities? All these will get demonstrably worse, and Dem minorities will have to fight their hardest just to stonewall.

I've not met this type of American in person - just read thousands of comments by them online - but something describable with the same words is there. A visitor from overseas would be most likely to encounter it via the stereotypical ranting white late-middle-aged taxi driver.
But it would be possible to encounter it almost never, working and living in well-off lefty middle class urban enclaves, if one had a job that didn't involve dealing with the public. Particularly in London where even people you'd meet for services like hairdressering or removals often have cosmopolitan attitudes.
Most smaller towns there'll be a fair bit of it, plenty of casual racism and xenophobia, wouldn't be surprised by anyone of any class being a Brexit / Tory supporter in a smaller place in England.
Do any of your major political parties deny global warming is a real thing (and also insist that evolution isn't real)?
There are a handful of religious schools that don't teach evolution, but that's rare and easy to avoid.
Parties don't deny global warming as a concept, but in many ways they, Tories especially, act as if it wasn't really happening, or not any time soon; various policies are being rolled back whilst greenwash rhetoric remains. Continental Europe is better on this issue (although they have for most of the last decade or two been worse on racism).
I've never encountered anyone ranting anti-abortionism in public other than the odd street preacher in an inner city area. Line toeing Catholics tend to be quite genteel and don't proselytise to randoms.
Most things are not as bad, everything on a smaller scale. But these issues are not absent. Out of the fire into the frying pan, perhaps? Which may be the best one can hope for, the way a lot of countries are going now.
Hadrian wrote: On the whole of it, I will probably be fine. I look white, I have a profession and hobbies that I love, and I do not worry about money. It's everyone else that concerns me. What about the environment, or trade, or women or minorities?
Hadrian, it's a relief finally to hear someone here speak of it with that kind of perspective.

Well, of course that's the shrug-your-shoulders way of interpreting the result, which is certainly the Trumpian story, and that of the main-stream media, who need to say something that seems to explain things. Doesn't make it the case. We already know that Russia was involved in different ways at trying to destabilize and interfere in the election. The fact that they "apparently" did nothing to effect things on election day is a little bit suspicious in itself, to me. But then I am a paranoid.

In times of trouble don't be afraid to lean on your Marxist revolutionary friends for support.
Another old friend posted this on Facebook, gives me hope
'No matter how you voted, I will not unfriend you. We gain nothing by shunning and demonizing our neighbors and co-workers. Most Trump voters didn't vote for him because they want walls on our border, just like most Clinton voters didn't vote for her because they want war with Syria. Trump voters primarily voted the way they did because they wanted to stop Clinton and vice versa. And BOTH groups of voters were trying, in a misguided way, to use their ballots to push back against a system that is rigged to benefit the rich and powerful. Rather than shunning and demonizing our neighbors and co-workers, let's respectfully engage one another. Let's hash out the disagreements we have, and see if we don't have more common ground than first meets the eye. At the end of the day, I truly believe that we have 1,000 times more things in common with each other, than the Trumps, Clintons and other greedy millionaires they keep trying to force us to vote for. Let's try shunning the Trumps and Clintons, rather than our neighbors and co-workers. Or to put it another way, workers of the world unite, you have nothing to loose but your chains!

Russia had an effect in the wikileaks dribble of Podesta's emails, but they didn't turn out white voters in the fox river valley. Trump owned that area where it usually leans red, but is the battleground in Wisconsin. I think there are a lot of white males who are just more comfortable voting for a black man than a white women. Especially when the woman lacks charisma and has a ton of baggage. I know quite a few of those voters and will be surrounded by them at deer camp. I'd be interested in seeing how union members voted.
For what's is worth, I think HRC would have done a better job of working in a divided government situation than Obama.

Anyway. I think this might be a cathartic time to start watching Designated Survivor.
(I've never been entirely without paranoia that such flippant remarks might be considered seditious one day, but I've evidently grown somewhat complacent than I used to be, like when I dumped all my political books, John Pilger, Naomi Klein, nothing too out there, in charity shops in mid sept 01.)


What follows is my 100-day action plan to Make America Great Again. It is a contract between myself and the American voter — and begins with restoring honesty, accountability and change to Washington
Therefore, on the first day of my term of office, my administration will immediately pursue the following six measures to clean up the corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, DC:
* FIRST, propose a Constitutional Amendment to impose term limits on all members of Congress;
* SECOND, a hiring freeze on all federal employees to reduce federal workforce through attrition (exempting military, public safety, and public health);
* THIRD, a requirement that for every new federal regulation, two existing regulations must be eliminated;
* FOURTH, a 5 year-ban on White House and Congressional officials becoming lobbyists after they leave government service;
* FIFTH, a lifetime ban on White House officials lobbying on behalf of a foreign government;
* SIXTH, a complete ban on foreign lobbyists raising money for American elections.
On the same day, I will begin taking the following 7 actions to protect American workers:
* FIRST, I will announce my intention to renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from the deal under Article 2205
* SECOND, I will announce our withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership
* THIRD, I will direct my Secretary of the Treasury to label China a currency manipulator
* FOURTH, I will direct the Secretary of Commerce and U.S. Trade Representative to identify all foreign trading abuses that unfairly impact American workers and direct them to use every tool under American and international law to end those abuses immediately
* FIFTH, I will lift the restrictions on the production of $50 trillion dollars' worth of job-producing American energy reserves, including shale, oil, natural gas and clean coal.
* SIXTH, lift the Obama-Clinton roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward
* SEVENTH, cancel billions in payments to U.N. climate change programs and use the money to fix America's water and environmental infrastructure
Additionally, on the first day, I will take the following five actions to restore security and the constitutional rule of law:
* FIRST, cancel every unconstitutional executive action, memorandum and order issued by President Obama
* SECOND, begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from one of the 20 judges on my list, who will uphold and defend the Constitution of the United States
* THIRD, cancel all federal funding to Sanctuary Cities
* FOURTH, begin removing the more than 2 million criminal illegal immigrants from the country and cancel visas to foreign countries that won't take them back
* FIFTH, suspend immigration from terror-prone regions where vetting cannot safely occur. All vetting of people coming into our country will be considered extreme vetting.
Next, I will work with Congress to introduce the following broader legislative measures and fight for their passage within the first 100 days of my Administration:
Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act. An economic plan designed to grow the economy 4% per year and create at least 25 million new jobs through massive tax reduction and simplification, in combination with trade reform, regulatory relief, and lifting the restrictions on American energy. The largest tax reductions are for the middle class. A middle-class family with 2 children will get a 35% tax cut. The current number of brackets will be reduced from 7 to 3, and tax forms will likewise be greatly simplified. The business rate will be lowered from 35 to 15 percent, and the trillions of dollars of American corporate money overseas can now be brought back at a 10 percent rate.
End The Offshoring Act. Establishes tariffs to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the U.S. tax-free.
American Energy & Infrastructure Act. Leverages public-private partnerships, and private investments through tax incentives, to spur $1 trillion in infrastructure investment over 10 years. It is revenue neutral.
School Choice And Education Opportunity Act. Redirects education dollars to give parents the right to send their kid to the public, private, charter, magnet, religious or home school of their choice. Ends common core, brings education supervision to local communities. It expands vocational and technical education, and make 2 and 4-year college more affordable.
Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act. Fully repeals Obamacare and replaces it with Health Savings Accounts, the ability to purchase health insurance across state lines, and lets states manage Medicaid funds. Reforms will also include cutting the red tape at the FDA: there are over 4,000 drugs awaiting approval, and we especially want to speed the approval of life-saving medications.
Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act. Allows Americans to deduct childcare and elder care from their taxes, incentivizes employers to provide on-side childcare services, and creates tax-free Dependent Care Savings Accounts for both young and elderly dependents, with matching contributions for low-income families.
End Illegal Immigration Act Fully-funds the construction of a wall on our southern border with the full understanding that the country Mexico will be reimbursing the United States for the full cost of such wall; establishes a 2-year mandatory minimum federal prison sentence for illegally re-entering the U.S. after a previous deportation, and a 5-year mandatory minimum for illegally re-entering for those with felony convictions, multiple misdemeanor convictions or two or more prior deportations; also reforms visa rules to enhance penalties for overstaying and to ensure open jobs are offered to American workers first.
Restoring Community Safety Act. Reduces surging crime, drugs and violence by creating a Task Force On Violent Crime and increasing funding for programs that train and assist local police; increases resources for federal law enforcement agencies and federal prosecutors to dismantle criminal gangs and put violent offenders behind bars.
Restoring National Security Act. Rebuilds our military by eliminating the defense sequester and expanding military investment; provides Veterans with the ability to receive public VA treatment or attend the private doctor of their choice; protects our vital infrastructure from cyber-attack; establishes new screening procedures for immigration to ensure those who are admitted to our country support our people and our values
Clean up Corruption in Washington Act. Enacts new ethics reforms to Drain the Swamp and reduce the corrupting influence of special interests on our politics.

We have serious issues with illegal immigration. Is a wall the solution? I don't know. If they build one, will I care? No.

Bono from U2 said it best. America's a great idea. And Trump's the worst idea America's had.

No, I'm in favor of a path to citizenship for current people in the country.


Something like that would just absolutely wreck me (in your position).


I'm glad you were able to offer her your help.
That was my immediate thought last night when I saw Detroiters voting for Trump.
Jonathan wrote: "I would, however, be interested to see in a year or so's time where we are in terms of what Trump has actually done. We have seen here in the UK how quickly the Brexit camp have discarded their campaign promises and I think Trump remains a complete wild-card"
There is that hope, because I don't think he cares much about most of the issues. On the other hand, he seems likely to delegate a lot of authority to advisers, who may be more genuine in their goals.