Joshua Rosenblum > Recent Status Updates

The Foreign Service culture has a different ethos, one much less responsive to the policy choices of the country’s political leadership. It was most visible during the Iraq war, when diplomats spoke openly of their hostility to the president proceeding without a United Nations Security Council mandate and when the department had difficulty filling posts in Iraq. But diplomats’ opinion that they are protecting America

More important, the year-to-year correlation between the outcomes of mutual funds is very small, barely higher than zero. The successful funds in any given year are mostly lucky; they have a good roll of the dice.

Cognitive illusions are the bomb!

Intelligence is not only the ability to reason; it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.