Status Updates From Fooled by Randomness: The H...

I don’t get his beef with journalists?? But go off I guess??

Maybe we could never draw a proper conclusion from the empirical data as outlier haven’t happened yet. But with understanding on the whole event and how the data being collected, it helps to reframe the problem and give hints from another angle. Why we are conducting such hypothesis, what we are going to proof. Try to question if the process is stupid, try to delete those not necessary, then optimize the problem

Problem on induction. I agree that we never can conclude something from only past empirical data but with one counter example we can disapprove. Also, we must understand why the data happen in this way before drawing conclusions. If car accident happen more frequently near neighborhood, there are still lots of info missing to answer why and the causality of the event

It is true that we could not forget the randomness of the world. Even the probability is 10 sigma to be doomed, there is still a probability. What we need to do is to understand what is the worst situation and plan for that. Once we know the consequences before going deeper, we can be safer from being wiped out

The author point out animal evolution is not continuous and evolution may not only converge to betterment. It could be added randomness. If the species did not counter any threat before and keep going the same path. After the long run, one threat can wipe out the species. Same as those successful trader keep buying the dip until being wipe out.

Poetry can fool people as it could be a random generated words. How we distinguish them could test its asthmatic ? Not really, we only accept the fake literature which sounds beautiful. As there is no way human can distinguish a random one or some creator writes them. I think we can test those by putting them with a context. There is a story behind and a main theme behind to express something

The first pages are extremely good at sparking your sense of randomness and probability, i like the personality of the author .

We don’t judge someone or a decision for Inestment / war or medicine based on the historical result. We can view it via if there are alternatives outcome and how costly are those outcome.

When people judge a trader, me as a single investor, missing a good trend or losing money in the market, how would I response ? Do I have any protection? What is the alternative decision ?