Status Updates From Fooled by Randomness: The H...

We human has lots of bias. Anchoring bias, based on historical or some references point to make decisions. Survival ship bias, we haven’t imagine or care those failed or tick out of the count. Or we may fall into perception that something in a streak should contribute to some true reason but it could be purely random. Random pattern don’t need to have a pattern, eg 10 times keep winning or losing

When we saying the avg expected living age is 73, and I am 72, do I expecte to die next year ? No, as given condition I am 72 and healthy, I should expect a longer life as someone already dead contribute the avg living age. This is concept about average of a sample group. Different from probability. When the operation is 1% morality, it’s wrong to say 100% dying for the 100th patient