Status Updates From How to Make the World Add U...

antidepressants 48-3 positive turned out to be 38-37 because s22 had negative result and unpublished, 11 had negative results to FDA Erick Turner NEJM 2008,Jan17. "Selective Publication of Antidepressant Trials and Influence on Apparent Efficacy"

publication bias where only interesting results get publish, negative or studies that do not replicate prior study don't get published, Kickstarter has few standouts that get funded but many don't get any money

2008 study of anti-depressants 48 trials pos & 3 none,researchers found 23 unpublished trials w/22 neg where drug didn't help,11 of trials pos in articles had produced neg results in FDA summary, cherrypick good news and hand-wave bad news about drug not effective. Corrected score not 48-3, but 38-37.

survivor bias distorts studies of investment performance, if ignore all funds that quietly disappear, apparent performance twice as good as actual perf. Result is to persuade ppl to invest in actively managed funds which often charge high fees when better served by low-cost passive whole stock market fund, multibillion $ mistake. Contest cow same as stockbrokers

Even cases of COVID-19 are subject to selective attention:people who feel terrible go to the hospital and are tested for the disease; people who feel fine do now.As a result, the disease looks even more dangerous than it really is.Even though statisticians understand this problem well there's no easy way to solve it without systematic testing,elusive in early stage of pandemic when diff policy decisions being made

How to evaluate a statistical claim: 1rst chap:try to notice your feelings about the claim, 2nd chap: constructively sense-checking the claim against your personal experience, 3rd chap:asking yourself if you really understand what the claim means.4th:Step back and look for information that can put the claim into context. Try to get a sense of the trend.

Very disappointed with the author's insistence on comparing algos with alchemy and the focus on forcing firms / companies to open them up.

Was a big fan of Undercover Economist by the same author.

While the writing style is still breezy to read, it is no where close to the information that was packed in Undercover Economist

Still a decent read till now, and it is trying to address a complicated topic, so kudos to the spirit.

So far, masih ada beberapa bagian yg musti aku baca dua kali. (Krn aku baca versi bahasa inggris hehe). Research yang dilakukan doll dan hill menarik menurutku, dan sampe skrg sangat akat berguna. Dedikasi mereka ke research soal kanker paru2 ini menginspirasi, agaknya lucu juga karena publikasi research mereka hampir bersamaan dengan publishnya buku how to lie with statistic.

Very interesting

TIL the economist Keynes was a huuuuuuge slut

"But there is a risk that this view slips into a proprietorial sense of ownership, when politicians believe not only that they should be using statistics to run the country, but that those statistics are none of anyone else’s business, and that external scrutiny is a distraction."

"The algorithm figured out the pattern: if there was a ruler in the photograph, it was cancer."

"But just as the most brilliant thinkers of the age failed to make progress while practicing in secret, secret algorithms based on secret data are likely to lead to missed opportunities for improvement."

"It's easy to make unwarranted assumptions that we have everything that matters. We must always ask who and what is missing."

"...most people think that all is well for them personally but are worried about the society they live in."

"Not asking what a statistic actually means is a failure of empathy, too."

"Much of what we think of as cultural differences turn out to be differences in income."

TIL oil paints take 50 years to dry!

"A secret tobacco industry memo read 'doubt is our product.'"

"Qualquer regularidade estatística observada terá tendência para colapsar quando for sujeita a pressão para fins de controlo."

"Most books people read are bestsellers - but most books are not bestsellers."

Informatie verzamelen op basis van herhalende geschiedenis, op zoek naar vernieuwing om er herhalende geschiedenis van te maken ,
Informatie over de herhalende toekomst uitgedrukt in tijd , wacht , wacht , wacht eeeeeeeeeeeen wacht , wacht wacht eeee

Gevoelige cijfers , ....

De werkelijkheid is uit te drukken in cijfers , en anders moet de werkelijkheid zich maar wat aanpassen ,

40,37 graden hoe voelt dat ? Als roodborstje , kameleon , komkommer , het cijfer is voor iedereen hetzelfde en toch voelt het anders ,

'Muhammad Yunus, an economist, microfinance pioneer, and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, has contrasted the “worm’s-eye view” of personal experience with the “bird’s-eye view” that statistics can provide. The worm and the bird see the world very differently, and Professor Yunus is right to emphasize the advantage of seeing it up close.'

"I worry about a world in which many people will believe anything, but I worry far more about one in which people believe nothing beyond their own preconceptions."

"Sometimes we want to be fooled."

So far, I am really enjoying this book. A real honest perspective on data and statistics.

It feels like everything so far in this book should be common sense, but maybe it’s not.

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