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Writing and Publishing
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Donning the clairvoyant’s cap – Publishing five years hence
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I know you love me disagreeing with you George, so I will...You are correct that the industry is changing. You are right that many houses will not change with the times and fall by the wayside. That is true in every industry that has ever existed. The trouble with the Publishing industry is that it has not changed drastically for hundreds of years, and now it is changing at light-speed.
You are also correct that technology is making it easier to skip the traditional publishing track and "do it yourself."
However, this has been the case for several years now and it is starting to show its true strips.
The fact is, in the end, it is the reviews of readers that make or break a book. In today's landscape, if you have $35, you can put your name on the cover of the phone book, send it in, and have it published and available on Amazon.com.
Does that make you a "published author?" Yes. Does that allow you to quite your day job? No.
Sure, you can skip the "evil" publishers with their "evil" minion gate-keeping agents. You can do it all yourself... However, let us take a "real" look at what that means. Because, no matter how good you "think" your manuscript is, $35 is not going to get you on the NYT best seller list.
Let's go shopping, shall we.
"Welcome to Pubmart. We hope you enjoy your visit."
Website $500
ISBN $100
Copyrighting $85
Typesetting $600
Cover design $300
Real Editing $5,000 to $10,000
A marketable cover $1,500 to $3,000
500 advanced reader copies $2,500
Mailing out 500 advanced reader copies $2,500
6 months of advanced publicity $90,000
Marketing during advanced publicity $150,000
Marketing after advanced publicity $75,000
Marketing material such as flyers and bookmarks $2500
Mailing out marketing materials to bookstores $15,000
First print run of books (and don't give me that POD crap, because we are shooting for placement on big bookstore shelves.) $50,000
I am sure I missed a few in my haste, but let's check out. If we forgot anything, we can always come back to Pubmart.
"Thank you for shopping with us, your final bill is $395,585. Will that me cash or credit?"
I know you are reading this saying... "Oh, but you don't NEED all that. You can get away with LESS and still be successful. And you are right, it does happen. People also win the lottery and get killed by falling debris from space, just not often.
Let us look at the FACTS of the industry, shall we.
Last year 1,000,000 books were published in North America. Of them, about 800,000 were self- and small-press books. Of the self- and small-press books published, 98.8% of them did not sell 50 copies.
So, 790,400 people last year spent between $35 and $395,585 and made a gross sales of less than $750, minus the cost of printing. YEA!
CAN self- and small-press houses put out a quality book that is commercially viable? Yes. The issue here is not "can" they. The issue is "do" they. And that answer, for the most part, is no. And this is abundantly clear by the 1 and 2 star reviews that are so prevalent with self- and small-press books.
If your book is good enough to be successful on its own, great. But, don't think getting it in the hands of a larger house, with people who have been working in this industry for decades will improve your book?
It all boils down to trust. And I am talking the trust of the reader, who is the buyer of the book, who is the ONLY reason this industry exists. Without books being purchased, there is no industry.
And, buyers are no longer trusting self- and small-press books. I see it every day. I am with a small house. A small house that has already pumped over $200,000 into my little project. I have to fight for almost every sale I get. Fight to get professional reviewers to even look at my stuff. Why? because they don't TRUST self- and small-press books, Because they have been burned so many times because anyone with $35 can be a published author.
So, the big houses and the agents are not going anywhere. Because, the majority of commercially successful books that will be published in the near and far future will be sold by them. And, so long as they make money, they will stay in business.
The big boys will not feel much pain from the new technology.
You know who will suffer? Self- and small-press authors who actually put out a good product. Because we don't have that "seal of approval" that comes with a large imprint logo on the spine of our book. We are the 1.2%, the 9,600 books, that have to continually fight to survive against the 790,400 books that have soured the reading pallet of the book buyer.
The ease of self-publishing is only hurting the self-publishing industry. Plain and simple.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
disagree?...odd, I actually have no opinion on how things will resolve themselves...or should resolves themselves...as always, just a discussion topic to see how other perceive things. I will apologize to you, Maxwell...as an Indie author myself...for offending you with my presence and my product...One question I do have...and I really don't know the answer to this by my own admission...I wonder if the ratio of good to bad indie books (whatever you standard of good and bad might be) is significantly different than the ratio of good to bad books that are churned out by the conventional publishing houses? I'm speculating for a position of not having a crystal ball, but I wonder if Amazon will be to the book industry what Walmart has been to the general goods industry.
George, I was joking about the disagreeing thing...And, if you will read my post again, you will find not one reference in it of me stating that I felt any indie book was crappy. I never said I was offended by any indie author nor book. Or, anything else you feel I said. The only personal opinion I even strayed into was to put my books in the group of the 1.2% of the "good" side. I never said I thought the other 98.8% of those books were bad. I said that the book buying public has classified them as bad since those 98.8% have not sold 50 copies. The fact is, many of the 98.8% are not selling only due to the fact that the author does not know how to market. So, please don't apologize to me for being an indie author. You can, however, apologize to me for miss-quoting me if you feel the need to apologize.
I am just stating facts.
The industry professionals that I know, (i.e. acquisition editors of publishing houses, editors in those houses, agents, and other authors - most of whom sell WAY more books than me,) managers of both privately owned and large, "big-box" bookstores, (such as Barnes & Noble) and the fans that I meet and talk to at conventions, (i.e. the book buying public) have all told me the reason they shy away from self- and small-published books is that THEY have been burned. I never stated my own opinion about self- and small-press authors in the post in an attempt to avoid the very accusation that you made against me. Obviously I failed.
The fact is, I am a HUGE supporter of the indie movement. I am "IN" the indie movement. I teach creative writing all over the world, and this may shock you, but not one singe NYT best selling author has ever attended my class. But, many indie authors and unpublished writers have. I offer free critiquing on my website. It may also shock you to find out that not one NYT best selling author has ever sent me anything for review. But, indie and unpublished authors have.
I say what I say not to be mean, or degrading to the indie or hopefuls in the world. I say what I say because I think the #1 biggest mistake that indie and hopeful writers make is not understanding the FACTS of this industry. They write a book and that is it. They think they are done. That it is perfect. That that is all they need to do, now they just sit back and collect the money.
All of my classes are designed around one simple fact. If you are going to do this as a profession, you need to understand how this industry works. This industry is not about story-telling, or imagination, or creativity. Now, before you get on the high horse, YES YOU HAVE TO HAVE THOSE THINGS. But, if you just have great story-telling, imagination and creativity, your chances of success are incredibly small. And YES, there are people who either write for their own pleasure, or even if their book sells, they don't care. There really are people out there who just write to write. I get it. But I am not talking to them, about them, nor down to them. They are done. Happy. Complete. They do not need nor care about my opinions on this industry and how to succeed in it.
But, there ARE people out here who DO want to make a living at this. Who DO want to be commercially successful. And it is THOSE people I am speaking to. It is THOSE people who I think are making a mistake if they don't expand their efforts from just trying to hold onto their "artistic vision" and write a wonderful story, (because, yes, you need that (I say this in case you forgot that I said it earlier in the post)) but you also have to look at this from the business side.
This industry, at its base, is not about creativity (see ALL CAPS above) it is about making money. And, you CAN do that while maintaining your "artistic vision" as well as continuing to "enjoy" what you do while growing and learning and bending to the industry, producing a product that is commercially successful.
You can be successful in this industry even if you are a pig-headed jerk who feels they know everything and everyone else is wrong (and I am using the proverbial "you" here... I AM NOT referring to you.) Again, people die from debris from space... just not often.
My point is, "they" are not the enemy. Agents, publishers, editors, fans. And, to get back to the topic of this thread, "they" are not going away. If you approach this thing called writing with the attitude that it is "you" against "them," you are setting yourself up for failure at worst. At best you are putting up a barrier that will slow down your progress to success.
And to hit your last point... Yes, big houses put out some CRAPPY BOOKS sometimes. However, if they take a chance on something, or worse, just overlook the fact that they need to pay attention to every little detail, and lose $100,000 or more, they write it off on their taxes. If we, as indie authors do not heed the warnings of where the indie market is heading, and the amount of trust the book buying public is losing in us, and we lose even $10,000 or so on our own project, it can ruin us financially.
I know I am not in the position to throw away money.
So, no. I am not offended by the indie market nor do I think all indie books are crappy - even the ones that do not sell many copies. Yes, I have read some bad indie books. Yes, I have read some wonderful indie books.
That being said, I will stand by my last closing thought...
The ease of self-publishing is only hurting the self-publishing industry.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
Whew... that was a lot of posting to say, "the churn will be nasty." That's what I take away from Maxwell's posts, and I don't disagree with most of his points.But as the OP was about what the industry will go through over the next five years, I think Maxwell's posts point to the fact that the present system, whether it is Big Publishers or self-publishers, is not yet working optimally. So we can expect to see even more churn, as major publishers try to cement their niche in the New Democratic Order (and incidentally, warn all consumers against indies), and self-publishers do all they can to convince consumers they are worth checking out (a prospect that is looking better and better by the day).
Publishers and agents are going to have to consider new business models to meet the new, downsized economy and their industry. Major publishers are already trying to come to grips with ebooks, and converting their backlists to ebooks, and so far, most of them are doing a bad job at it thanks to knee-jerk decisions to contract out much of the work to cut-rate johnny-come-latelies. It's already cost them consumer confidence in their ebook content. They will have to fix that broken process, bring it under budgetary control and regain market confidence in their ebook quality.
And in the meantime, self-publishers are busy improving their quality, and stealing market share from Big Pub.
Agents may go through the biggest change, switching their clients from major publishing houses to smaller editing and proofing houses, and small presses and/or ebook publishers. Agents may even take on some of these roles themselves, becoming the editors, proofers or file preparers for the customer. Then they'll have to adopt a business model that will entice authors to spend money and use agents, as opposed to doing it themselves.
Over the next 5 years, we should see quality of self-published ebooks and Big Pub ebooks rise in light of present consumer criticism of this area. Quality will be the great equalizer in the market, winning market share for either side.
As for promotion, web media is already turning George's promotion figures on its ear, and it will continue to do so. New web media and optimization of existing media will allow those with less money, but more time and effort, to mount promotional efforts equal to all but the biggest blockbuster promotions. Perhaps advertisers and promoters will rise to the stature of today's agents as the people an author must deal with to sell their work. Perhaps this will be part of the agent's package, and those most savvy in web media, cheap videos and flash-promos will win out over the rest.
Finally, ebooks will continue to rise in market share, especially as they can be read on more and more devices, people are rapidly losing the space to store more and more printed books, and people come to realize we need trees more than we need paper. This will present a problem with document security--essentially, ebook theft and file copying and dissemination will not be solved within 5 years, making publishing profits smaller than everyone would like.
Steven Lyle Jordan
I write the future... so you don't have to.
One point I just wanted to second, Steven, was the quality of the back-catalogue material being released...there has been a great deal of criticism levelled at the technical formatting standards of the product being offered by the indie venues, but I recently purchased a Merceded Lackey novel for my sony e-reader and I was stunned by how poorly formatted the book was (still liked the story though). I'm just an indie author lacking for a major writer's pedigree, but I would be ashamed if my novel had come out like that one did. I assume that this will improve as trad publishers move more of their back catalogue onto the e-book retail lists.
Yes, I've had the same happen to me. In each case, I contacted the publisher and received no response... so I contacted the author and told him how badly his books were being handled by his publisher. I also asked for, and received, a refund for the works, which the publisher will take note of. Hopefully, between the refunded books, and the author's kvetching, the publishers will get the message. (If they don't some mainline authors are likely to decide that they're better off on their own.)
Since we have swung over to eBooks and their look/formatting, I will also add this.While I agree that I have seen some pretty shoddy work, where you can tell the publisher made absolutely no effort beyond some magical "conversion" program, it is not "always" their fault.
When the publisher of my fantasy saga moved to the eBook format, they did, like they have done with all their works, moved with the attitude of putting out the highest quality product.
What they found was that even though the ePub format is standard, and all devices are suppose to follow its guidelines, many devices do not.
Case in point...
My books look WONDERFUL on the Barnes & Noble Nook, Borders, Kobo, and for anyone who simply reads the book on a PC/MAC program such as Adobe Digital Editions or Calabri.
However, the Kindle is a different animal. It is one device that does NOT follow the standard. That being said, my book's formatting still looks pretty good on that device.
The iPad, however, is a conundrum. It is SUPPOSE to support the ePub standard. But, Apple, with their awesome, "we know what you want more than you do" attitude, has decided to follow only a few things within the standard ePub format.
As publishers are not programmers, this mish-mash of supported/unsupported conflicts makes it hard on them, especially a small press that does not have unlimited funds to hire a programmer for every single device on the market. So, while my books are in the iBook store, and they look O.K., they do not have all the nifty features that my books have on the Nook, etc.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
I'll make another prediction, since you can't discuss ebooks without (unfortunately) discussing digital rights management (DRM). So here goes...In five years' time, yes, there will still be DRM from many publishers and authors: There is no other way for authors and publishers to protect their works from unauthorized copying and dissemination; and even though DRM is easily circumvented by savvy users, the bulk of the ebook-buying consumers will not think about DRM, and it will not be a problem for them, as it will be seamlessly incorporated into whatever they use to read ebooks.
This prediction is based on conversations I've had with Kindle and Nook users, average people, who have no clue what DRM means or why they should care.
Of course, small factions will continue to complain about DRM, citing it as an "inconvenience" and "ineffective" at best, and "capitalist," "communist," "Big Brother," etc, at worst; but the bulk of the market won't know what they're talking about, so their arguments will be as ineffective as--ahem--DRM.
We may see, within five years, efforts by many ISPs to limit their users' access to IP addresses that provide torrent content, prompted by legal efforts to limit the public's access to sites that often carry illicit content. We will probably see efforts to put federal legislation in place to block such sites, though they will probably all be overturned.
(Beyond 5 years, I expect digital document security to evolve to a level at which digital documents can be protected... but that's another story.)
As a former network security specialist, I am interested in seeing how things evolve in DRM over the next decade.I am of the other opinion, however. Which is, you will never stop digital theft. It is simply too easy, and worst of all, most people do not see it as theft. We have all seen the "Piracy is steeling" commercials on DVDs showing the guy steeling a purse from an old lady. I love that commercial. But fact is, they are right. Most people who still digital content would never even consider shoplifting or mugging an old lady.
Yet, even after watching that commercial, they do not feel what they are doing is theft. We, the creators of entertainment, know different. Theft is theft.
Also, the people who pirate digitally will never be convinced they are hurting anyone. They see authors as people who make tons of money for doing nothing. So to them, they are not really steeling anything of value.
All of my books and audio books are out there on the torrent sites. It is just something I have to sigh and bear. And hope that perhaps a few of them will become my fan and want to do the right thing and help support me so I can continue to bring them quality entertainment. Because, as with my warning about self- and small-press hurting itself. If piracy gets to the point where more people pirate than purchase, we, the creators of the entertainment, will be forced to seek employment elsewhere. So they are really just hurting themselves.
On the brighter side, I have tons of fans who have purchased both the eBook and physical book of my stuff. The eBook to read, the physical to get autographed and collect. I am not sure if as many fans double-purchase as pirate, but it is a nice feeling.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
I agree with most of what Maxwell suggests in his post…the traditional publishing structure is not going to vanish, but I think it will endure an attitude adjustment that comes from traversing the spectrum of being the only game in town to being just one of the venues to the readers markets. I also agree that much of the product offered through indie outlets is deficient in terms of production value and the quality of the writing being put forth for purchase by the public…this is irksome to the consumer and detrimental to the industry as a whole.I have been reluctant to discuss my own writing on this site as there are many areas of goodreads where the mere mention of having produced an indie book is greeted with tremendous acrimony. Still, it is within the context of this discussion. I elected to take the indie route because I wanted total control over every aspect of my creative product. If you take a slight hop over to my page on this site, the quality of the cover graphics of my novels should make my commitment to the product readily apparent. I was particularly fussy with the cover images for Closures in Blood and the cover of my forthcoming fantasy, Journey through the Land of Shades…for the Journey cover, I devoted nearly three month working with artists and my graphic designer to produce exactly the visual depiction I wanted to front my novel…I doubt I would have been given the same latitude from Tor. Perhaps I put too much significance on this visual, but it was important to me. I invested far greater effort in the work to be found beneath the virtual cover. I’m not suggesting that this is the definitive approach to writing…but it is the one that I have to use. The failing or merits to be had in the final product are mine and mine alone. This is why I personally applaud the changes sweeping through the industry.
I’m the first to admit, that each and every time I visit Smashwords to check my page, I cringe when I see date rape 21 or incest 12 posted on the home page there, but then I think back to my emotional reaction to the first sight of my Journey cover graphic and I realize it is the only route open to me and my personal attitude towards my work.
You are correct, George. For the most part, the author loses control of his project when he goes with a publisher. And the larger the house, the less control he has. If you are with one of the big ones, many times as a first time or little known author, you simply send them your manuscript, sit back, and in a year or so they send you your book. When you get it in the mail is the first time you even see the cover art.That being said, instead of looking at it like, "This is mine! Mine! Mine! Mine!" You can also look at it like this. "Well, Mr. Publisher, you have over 40 years of experience in producing covers that sell books. I will trust you in creating a cover that will sell. Even if it is not something I would have done. Or even like." Because, frankly, this is how many publishers see book covers. "You are the author and other than your time, if this book does not sell, you are out nothing. You will simply write another book. For me, however, if this book does not sell I will be out TONS of money, and depending on my situation with the company, I may also be out of a job. So Shut up, let me do this in a way that I think will sell, and save us both a lot of hassle."
I am not saying they are right. Nor am I saying that sometimes they come up with a cover that actually HURTS the project. I am simply trying to show you the other side of the coin.
As for me, I am lucky with the house that published my fantasy series. Even though they are small, they have deep pockets. They can afford the best in the industry, and at $3,000 per cover, the work that Lars Grant-West did on mine is worth every penny. They also spent a small ransom on editors, graphics design, marketing, etc. And, for the cherry on the top, they included me in EVERY meeting about my project. I am not saying I had final say in anything - it was, after all, their money - but they did listen to me and I feel I had a major say in not only the cover, but what the website, marketing, layout of the pages and title-headers, etc. look like.
And also, I don't just include self-published authors as indie authors. I also include small publishing houses. So, while I am traditionally published, I still consider myself an indie author. Because, without that "major house logo on the spine" seal of approval, we are all in the same boat.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
I wonder if the mass market paperback is destined to become the 8-track tape of the current decade? It certainly isn't beyond the realm of possibility and should it come to pass, the nature of every aspect of this industry would be radically altered.
There's a very good chance the ebook will replace the MMP; statistics are already showing serious drops in MMP sales, while ebook sales are still climbing. Five years is probably too soon for that to happen, as there is so much inertia in publishing that they likely couldn't manage it if they decided to switch over yesterday. But within ten years, sure: There will be hardbacks and ebooks, and not much else.When it does happen, the nature of the ebook market will change radically, I think, with publishers doing their best to switch to a market where everyone will download ebooks cheap, and buy the hardback if you want a "keepable" version... not much different than the present TV/movie-to-DVD market.
Steven Lyle Jordan
I write the future... so you don't have to.
While I agree that eBooks are on the rise, and physical books are tacking a dive, (I mean hell, eBooks account for about 20% of my sales) I don't think the 8 track is a good analogy. The 8 track, and then it's replacement, the Cassette, where replaced by better technology. Just like Blu-Ray is replacing DVD in that market. I do not think eBooks are "better" than physical books. I just think they fill a different niche.I have a feeling (or at least a hope) that, while we are not there yet, the two mediums of publishing (digital and print) will come to a stabilization point. There will come a time when the industry will know to within a small margin what a new book will sell in what medium, and be able to plan accordingly. But, I still think (hope) you will have both MMPB and HB, as well as a solid eBook market.
The funny thing to me is this...
I "hope" physical books stay alive for my own nostalgic reasons. I "love" holding a book. But, I am purchasing more and more of my reading material from my Nook. I really "love" it. I am still buying my favorite authors in Hardback. But those that I have not read and feel I should, or something new, etc., I am finding it easier and cheaper to just get digitally.
Plus, as an author, my royalty is almost 2X the amount when someone buys my book digitally, as opposed to physically. And I am not talking, "it is 2X the %, but less actual money." No! I get almost twice the actual cold hard cash.
So, am I scared of a world of nothing but digital books... no. Do I think future generations will miss a very wonderful thing if they no longer have physical books... yes.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
Here's where we disagree: I do believe ebooks are "better" than printed books. The lower cost of production... the space savings... the ease of storage (and backup)... the ease of transportation/communication to all points of the globe, in seconds... the presentation flexibility... the preservation of our forests and watersheds, lower energy use and vastly less water used in manufacture... all add up to ebooks' superiority over paper.I realize people are sentimental over printed books. But sentimental attachment doesn't make them better, any more than a sentimental attachment to a Spad biplane makes it a better transportation vehicle than a Learjet.
Future generations, growing up without that sentimental attachment, won't miss a thing. They'll wonder, with all the obvious advantages to digital files, why we held on to paper for so long.
On this matter, Steven, you and I are in total agreement...especially on the oft-neglected potential environmental benefits of e-book proliferation...but even from the ergonomic perspective, when I recently fought with the stiff binding of Brandon Sanderson's mistborn novel or fumbled with the five pound extended format Steven Erikson dreams of dust novel, I quickly realized that the e-reading experience was far more comfortable and enjoyable.
I will concede to those points. I am not disagreeing with you at all. I did say I was being...to steal your word...sentimental.:)
Still, I am not sure, even with all the advantages listed, that you will be able to drive out the "sentimental" from the buying public. Even today's children. My son is 9 with his own Nook. He loves it and uses it daily. But, he still saves up his money and uses it to purchase physical books. I have tried to discourage this, as he just destroys them due to his age, but he feels the need to purchase some on his Nook, and some from the bookstore.
The biggest drawback to eBooks is that humans like tangible property. And, though I like to read on my Nook, I also like to have books on my shelf.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
"Humans like tangible property."I like "property," too... I just don't think it has to be physically tangible. People are demonstrating today that they are willing to give up tangibility for volume... witness those who have removed their record collections, and now proudly display an iPod in a stereo jack. As many of them didn't have enough shelf space to display all those records in the first place, they consider the iPod dock a serious improvement over a partially-displayed collection.
And proudly displaying your Nook is really no different than showing off your old console radio or flat-screen TV, both of which played programs that you watched or listened to regularly, yet did not actually have tangible copies of those shows in your house.
So the idea of being attached to tangible goods has been changing for years; this is just a new iteration of it, the transferal of books from the shelf to the hard drive. I, for one, don't have a problem with that, and I predict that most others will also be happy to replace all that bound paper with much more efficient digital storage (plus two or three very special printed books, just to prove how cool they are).
While books can have sentimental value, such as when they're gifted, or recall a special time in your life, in fact books in general are simply practical items, and in themselves rarely holding of sentimental value (otherwise, everyone would keep all of their books, and the used book market wouldn't have been nearly what it was). So other than the rare gifted or memorabilia book, most books would find themselves quickly replaced by electrons if it was easy enough to do.
In my house, that would mean my wife would retain about a dozen Ukrainian children's books from her childhood, we'd collectively keep less than a dozen hardbacks, and the rest of the hundreds of paperbacks and hardbacks we have would be trash. Hundreds of books in my house... reduced to less than 20 printed books. If most people did the math, I'd bet they'd get about the same figures.
I'd also bet your son will eventually tire of the bookstore process, especially as bookstores become fewer and further between, and he can be instantly satisfied with an ebook.
Steven Lyle Jordan
I write the future... so you don't have to.
Steven,All very valid points. However, even though the death of physical print books would be a boon to all you have stated, and it would increase the ease at which someone could go to market through self-publishing, it would have two very negative impacts.
The obvious one would be the loss of jobs in both big-box and mom & pop bookstores. A shame for all they have given to our society. But, technology must move on. I mean, witch-doctors gave a lot to their society, but I would rather go to the hospital for my broken arm, thank you very much.
The not so obvious impact would be the difficulty of marketing. A book buyer cannot "browse" books as easily on a "digital" shelf as they can on a physical shelf. I mean, just go to Amazon and check out the list for my genre, Sci-fi Fantasy, and you will get the first 12 of 24,212 books. So, unless a book is one of the first 100 or so listed, a buyer is not going to continue to browse page after page.
I think you will find that the larger houses are looking forward to this time. Even though they have been slow to adapt, they already dominate this arena. For, only books that are well marketed will remain on the top. They have the money to market, they have the clout to have Amazon (or any other on-line retailer) place their products at the top of the list, so it will be their books that customers see first and purchase more times than not. And, when you look at any of these on-line sites, it is the big house books that are the first you see. Now, before you get all nit-picky, yes, there are some smaller ones there, but not many. Especially when you think of the millions that are available now. When this gets even easier, that number will increase. Yet, there will still be only a few that make it to the top of the list.
So, the big boys will stay at the top. It is those that are lower on the list that will suffer. Those that are lower will have more competition. When you are at the top, it really does not matter how many people are under you. When you are mixed in somewhere in the middle, the number that is around you matters a whole bunch!
And with it increasingly easy for anyone to publish a book, the amount of competition will grow exponentially. For, even if the author does zero marketing, their book is still listed, so it is one more book yours will be competing for ranking over.
Regardless of how exciting it is to be able to clean up your personal library, how wonderfully green it will be to stop murdering trees for paper, how amazingly easy it will be to become self-published in this new digital publishing age, I feel this market will only become increasingly harder for indie authors like us to succeed in. This will only strengthen the need that we have for the "big" houses. Not only for an author to make a living at this, but I feel the customers, the book buying public, will start to rely on them more and more. Because, even if the big boys put out bad products as well, the buyer will still put more faith in them that they had several "industry professionals" approve the product, as opposed to just some guy who thinks he can write a good story. It will simply be easier for them to chose a title from the top 100 of the list, than to delve down for hours on end to pick someone they might not have heard of.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
I said years ago that mom-and-pop bookstores could leverage ebooks and not go out of business, by setting up a store that allowed customers to search and browse for ebooks; then, while they were there, buy the ebooks at the store through the store's portal, which would transfer a portion of the sale to the store.No one thought to do that little thing, so, really, any small store that goes out of business is due to its own lack of foresight in not embracing the new format in a way that would work for them. Not that I don't feel bad for them, but they have to assume part of the blame for failing.
The interesting thing about marketing is that we're already seeing a change in the marketing landscape, thanks to Web2.0 and social media. Marketers are already competing directly with individual consumers, who blog, tweet, write reviews and summaries, and spread links to their friends (and anyone else who might see them). Marketers have already lost eyeballs to individuals. The last DVD I bought was not due to a marketing campaign, but to an individual I've never met who left a review of it on Amazon.
In another 5 years, we'll see more of the same. Web2.0 is giving us more and varied ways of shopping for books, and I expect it to get better, ie, easier to find books and subjects you're interested in.
I'll point out that physically browsing for books was never that easy: It was time-consuming, rummaging through all the books in a section, reading oft-misleading reviews and tagline-loaded descriptions, or not finding the book because the store didn't have it, etc. Online makes it easier for me to find books already, and it'll only get better with time.
It is going to be an interesting ride. Some will win, while others lose. That is the way of all commerce.I think you are a bit mislead on your "download from a mom-and-pop store and they would stay in business" theory, however. My background is in networking and there are two issues with your train of thought.
Fist is, in a business, you can't just drop in a $60 Linksys router and let people surf the net. Those devices just can't handle all those IPs and traffic. They are designed for 3 or 4 constant PCs and the occasional guest. In an environment where you would have 3 to 8 new logons a day minimum, you would end up re-booting the device a few times a day, which would lead to other failures. And most mom & pop store owners just are not that tech savvy. Also, ISPs like cable companies will not drop a residential priced package into a business, so you would not be able to get the $50 a month package, but you would be forced to purchase a $150+ commercial Internet package. That may not sound like much, but if you are struggling to make ends meet, an extra $2,000 a year sux. Not to mention the hardware and labor charges to maintain this.
Second, and most notable, your theoretical model doesn't even exist. Might as well tell then, "Well it's your own damn fault for going out of business because you didn't stock your shelves with teleportation wristbands."
Because, for your mom & pop bookstore to let people download books and get a piece of that sale, there has to be a service in place for the customers. If the customer is in their store and downloads a book from Amazon, or Barnes & Noble, the mom & pop would get no credit. So, the bookstore would either have to drop in their own, very expensive servers AND get licensing contracts with all the publishers to allow them to host and sell all those millions of books, (and all the time and labor to do this would be a full time job so forget running your bookstore for the rest of your life) or subscribe to a service that does all this for them - which does not exist.
So to say, "It's their fault" is just silly. They are being put out of business by technology, yes. And if they had the massive funds like a Barnes & Noble to create an entire division of people to roll out a new technology product like the Nook, then they could keep up with the times and not go out of business, yes. But, then they would not be a small mom & pop store, they would be a big-box store and we would not be having this conversation about them anyway.
One thing my publisher is doing that not only helps me, but the small mom & pops is this. They produce my eBooks in a gorgeous retail DVD package. It sells for the exact same price as the download, but the bookstores can stock in on their shelves. This means they purchase it at their normal book discount and make their normal profit on this. Unfortunately, the creation of this falls on the PUBLISHERS, not the BOOKSTORES. As far as I have seen, my publisher is the only one doing this.
I love it because I can also sell my eBooks at the events I attend.
Maxwell Alexander Drake
Read the first five chapters of my award-winning fantasy saga at www.genesisofoblivion.com
Hey, it's a tech world. And tech costs money. A business owner has to understand and accept that, because no one is going to turn back the clock for Ma and Pa Storeowner who don't want to modernize beyond their electric cash register.I know the model I described doesn't exist. But the tools to develop such a model have existed for a decade. Businesses have developed networked cash systems, interactive databases connected to websites, cross-inventory systems, etc... then turned them into turnkey systems so others could use them, or created businesses that could set them up for other businesses. (And by the way, such turnkey systems are often sold at reasonable prices compared to doing it yourself.)
The small bookstore industry could have done the same thing, creating a portal system that would let store customers order an ebook (or the store does it for them), they get the book, and the store gets a cut. (No point in getting into technical discussions about the details here.)
No one did. The opportunity was there for someone, but no one picked up the baton and ran with it. So, now the tech train is running them down. I can only hope they find something else they can sell in their storefronts... or can get a good price for the store when they sell. Time, unfortunately for them, marches on.
The concept of packaging an ebook in a physical container isn't new, but I personally haven't decided whether it is a good thing; after all, you're consuming materials that will end up being landfilled, taking away one of ebooks' advantages. I'm also looking at selling my ebooks at events, but by bringing a system that will allow me to make the digital sale and email the product to them at that moment. With an internet connection (and software from Square that will allow me to take credit card orders), I can do just that. I plan to give the system a try in October.
Steven Lyle Jordan
I write the future... so you don't have to.
Maxwell wrote: "One thing my publisher is doing that not only helps me, but the small mom & pops is this. They produce my eBooks in a gorgeous retail DVD package. It sells for the exact same price as the download, but the bookstores can stock in on their shelves. This means they purchase it at their normal book discount and make their normal profit on this. Unfortunately, the creation of this falls on the PUBLISHERS, not the BOOKSTORES. As far as I have seen, my publisher is the only one doing this..."My publisher tried that when my book first came out, I still have one of the CDs somewhere. She does it now at events we do together. She has a line of short stories that are only on ebook, but she would burn a mini-CD with as many as you wanted. She's trying a different system now, using coupon codes rather than CDs. I read an article a few weeks back on the use of gift cards that a store could sell, which would enable a download, much the same thing.
I like the gift card idea better than the CD, only because it's paper instead of plastic. Point-of-sale items could be as small as business cards, handy at events for those who cannot immediately download a book, or who don't want to give a stranger an email address.
I'll get the ball rolling with one possible future...inspired by the rapidly growing e-book technologies, the traditional structure of publishing house/agent driven publishing structure will see a vastly dimished role in the general publishing/book retailing matrix. These new technologies will allow both authors and retailers to circumvent the customary path to market access. Amazon's growing campaign to provide a host of alternatives to authors and smaller publishing houses could well be the death knell for many of the larger houses who seemed to hold the industry in an iron grip only a decade ago. Judging by some of the trends that have taken shape in the last eighteen months alone, it could well be that many of those who work in the traditional publishing structure could be well-advised to consider career path planning.
This is merely a scenario for discussion sake. I won't claim to have any great insight into what the future might hold for the business of book hawking...the future of the industry is nebulous, but trying to envision the possible shape it might assume a few years hence is both interesting for those who create and work in the business.