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message 4701:
by
Geoff (G. Robbins) (merda constat variat altitudo)
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Sep 21, 2016 03:45PM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2...
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I saw that one. What struck me as interesting was it was one of the rating agencies that was saying it, rather than a political pundit
saw this just nowhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/...
It does strike me that we're in a time of political change, or perhaps a time when the political change that's been going on under the surface for a while suddenly becomes obvious
Yes, but did you read it? I mean really read it?The headline that the Telegraph would like you to take away is that there would be no negative effect of Brexit. But that isn't what Moody's are saying.
Read a little deeper and you will see that Moody's are saying that there would be an impact on the banks, but it would be modest and the banks would be able to manage. Here's one quote:
“The greater impact would be felt through higher costs and diversion of management attention, as the companies concerned restructure, reducing profitability for a time.
“This is credit negative but manageable. And other critical factors such as capital and liquidity, which are largely determined by global standards, are unlikely to face material changes due to Brexit per se.”
In other words, on one specific element of Brexit - financial passporting - there will be a negative effect on the banks which will increase their costs, force them to restructure and reduce profitability. Restructuring, of course, means job losses either through reducing the number of people that they employ or moving some jobs out of the UK to Europe.
Moody's thinks the banks will be able to manage. Note they are not saying that the economy won't be hurt. They are not saying that there won't be job losses. They are not saying that the banks will be unaffected. They are saying that the banks - which are largely all multinationals - will be able to cope with the loss of passporting.
To be fair, the Telegraph does give a couple of quotes at the end of the article from Moody's saying that there will be job losses and from the City of London Corporation saying that:
“Passporting is still a crucial issue for financial services firms and the uncertainty is causing real problems for some businesses."
There is a more even-handed piece about the same issue in the FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/ed1be92a-b...
The point, yet again, is that the Telegraph have put as positive a spin as they can on a what ought to have been a balanced news item. Skim read the article or just look at the headline and you might get the impression that it's all going to be fine. Read the article properly and look at similar articles in other newspapers, and you'll see that it is confirming that there will be negative impacts.
The banks will probably be able to cope, but there will be some job losses. Which is great if you have shares in a bank, but not so good if you work for one.
Nothing's changed yet, but we're all desperate for news, so we're being fed a diet of thin gruel, such as this. The evidence of economic history tells us that if the consequence of Brexit is to create new tariff and non-tariff barriers, it will negatively impact our world trade, and thus we will, collectively, be worse off, and this doesn't say much more than that.The traditional greeting to an acquaintance shrouded in gloom applies here. "Cheer up, it might never happen."
passporting is going to be a mere flea on the skin of the dog if the City of London loses its primacy as the intermediary timezoned market between The Far East & US financial markets. If it shifts to Paris or Frankfurt, the UK will see something like 1/10th of its income tax revenue lost at one fell swoop.
Well I hope the Bourse doesn't get it. Hollande was reportedly down to 13 points in popularity last week and the article in the Figaro said he lost 2 more points, it now stands at 15. Thats only arithmetic, god help if financiers count like that.
Will wrote: "Yes, but did you read it? I mean really read it?..."
yes
I post stuff which will inform and add to the debate, I don't post it because it unreservedly agrees with me
Democracy is best served by debate
****Please note the addition to the thread title****
Patti (baconater) wrote: "****Please note the addition to the thread title****"watch it fill with porn and hit&run book promos :-)
David wrote: "Patti, have we bored you?"She's just worried that Britain out of the EU will see imports of Danish Bacon go down hill :)
Self-interest!!!! Tut tut Patti :-)
Who's going to dare to leave the first 'Hit and Run' book promo???
I knew the Tories were deluded, but after watching Leadsom's speech at their conference, they have well and truly lost the plot. Her solution to a future shortage of workers to pick vegetables, was a return to some misty eyed version of 1950s Britain.
British workers whistling jolly tunes as they march on the fields. The vicar leaning over the hedge of his cottage to say hello.
Matron cycling past on her bike, on her way to watch the cricket and have a warm beer with John Major...
OK, I exaggerate slightly, but this was the tone, this was the flannel and soft soap we were getting.
I half expected her to tell the British people to dig for victory!
God us help us.
The owners of the vegetable fields, of course, are expecting to continue to use migrant workers post-brexit, but to treat them worse and pay them less.
David wrote: "The owners of the vegetable fields, of course, are expecting to continue to use migrant workers post-brexit, but to treat them worse and pay them less."I wish them luck trying to get anybody to sign up to that.
You never know, consumers, post brexit, might develop a conscience and stop paying the sort of prices which pay third world wages
Jim wrote: "You never know, consumers, post brexit, might develop a conscience and stop paying the sort of prices which pay third world wages"Jim, five minutes viewing of the Tory conference will damage any faith you had in the British people. These Tories, and the people cheering them on, are nuts!
Liam Fox seems to think that because the French buy British jam and marmalade, we'll get a good deal from them.
Amber Rudd wants to name and shame firms that don't hire enough British workers.
Foreign doctors are to be discouraged, when the NHS is crying out for junior doctors to fill the ranks. I spoke to a friend in the profession who said that even if the Tory plans to hire more British junior doctors go 100% according to plan, it will still take about 10-15 years to see any benefit.
Because you can't train a doctor up in five minutes...
As I said, the Tories have well and truly lost the plot.
the point is with no credible opposition, it doesn't really matter what the Tories do or say. No one can stop them
hardly matters given there isn't a coherent oppositionBut I suspect that the policies outlined might not go down well in some places but will sell well on the doorstep come the next election
what is this doorstep of which you speak? I haven't seen hide nor hair of a candidate from any party in the last 10 years and we're a seat that does change hands (mainly due to corruption of the sitting MPs with their hand in the cookie jar)
Marc wrote: "what is this doorstep of which you speak? I haven't seen hide nor hair of a candidate from any party in the last 10 years and we're a seat that does change hands (mainly due to corruption of the si..."One of the rare occasions when you and I are in complete agreement. The last time we had an MP our doorstep for a General Election, was 1992...
I have yet to see a Member of the Scottish Parliament on the doorstep, either...
I don't think any politicians know what the plot is, never mind ever being in a position to be able to lose it.
Jim wrote: "hardly matters given there isn't a coherent oppositionBut I suspect that the policies outlined might not go down well in some places but will sell well on the doorstep come the next election"
The way things are going, we might not be able to afford doorsteps!
Jay-me (Janet) wrote: "I don't think any politicians know what the plot is, never mind ever being in a position to be able to lose it."And they wonder why people don't vote.
Utter dogshit is coming out of the Tory Conference, but I'm hoping it's mostly just hot air designed to hoover up those UKIP voters.Corbyn is too busy attending a local Cuban 1974 Socialist Reunion Party to bother capitalising on this kind of thing.
Michael Cargill wrote: "Utter dogshit is coming out of the Tory Conference, but I'm hoping it's mostly just hot air designed to hoover up those UKIP voters.Corbyn is too busy attending a local Cuban 1974 Socialist Reuni..."
Agreed. I've always been wary of people seeking power for its own sake, as I believe people should be in politics because they want to change things for the better, or have an idea etc etc
But the opposite of this is Corbyn's stance. He's happy to lose, as long as he's making a point. A permanent student protest group masquerading as a major political party.
Michael Cargill wrote: "Utter dogshit is coming out of the Tory Conference, but I'm hoping it's mostly just hot air designed to hoover up those UKIP voters..."
more likely to hoover up Labour voters in the North.
The current labour party is in danger of dying in the North
the current Labour Party is dead. At the last election its constituency was London and Northern cities and the two have very little in common with one another, therefore it is schizoid and will inevitably pull apart. With Corbyn in charge it will be a rump of London seats and its traditional voters in the North will either go UKIP or just not bother.
On another democratic front the French prime minister Valls, has said that if the FN get a majority in the presidential s they will suspend the electoral process as it will be a crime against the republic.
For two years in the run up to the referendum in 2014, Scottish independence supporters like myself were accused of being xenophobic, anti-English, divisive, Nazis, Nuremberg on the Clyde...You name it, they said it.
And now we have Tory ministers talking about British jobs for British workers, firms having to list foreign staff, restrictions on foreign doctors and students...
The irony is so thick, you could choke on it.
EU nationals were allowed to vote in the 2014 referendum. They were barred on June 23rd 2016.
But people like myself are labelled narrow-minded nationalists...
Go figure...
The people who accused the Scots Nats of pandering to xenophobia are now calling the Tories out. In my opinion, Scots Nats and Little Englanders are equally wrong-headed.
David wrote: "The people who accused the Scots Nats of pandering to xenophobia are now calling the Tories out. In my opinion, Scots Nats and Little Englanders are equally wrong-headed."The two are miles apart.
Not going too well for UKIP this week!Farage is like a crucifix to the loonies, they only feel safe doing their work when he's not around to keep them in check.
Michael Cargill wrote: "Not going too well for UKIP this week!Farage is like a crucifix to the loonies, they only feel safe doing their work when he's not around to keep them in check."
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch, though I hope Woolfe pulls through.
R.M.F wrote: The two are miles apartThe Honourable Mhairi Black MP wrote:
"it's comin homme its cuming home foot balls comingg home" ...is it fuck ya wanks
That looks pretty xenophobic to me!
She's a disgrace to any nation.
Young person does stupid thing. Hold the front page.
Its not really a question of youth, if you can't see the problem, she's no example to anyone including young voters.
I watched Neil Hamilton being interviewed on the news today. Despite his far greater crime and disgrace, the man is still an elected representative. 27 Tory MPs are under police investigation over election expenses in 2015.
Labour MPs have been jailed for expense fraud.
And for the interests of balance, a SNP MP has been charged with embezzlement.
A few silly comments from a young MP pales into insignificance when confronted with the rogues gallery outlined above.
It's a question of priorities for me.
is Neil Hamilton actually an elected representative these days? What, at local level?For once I agree with RMF; when have our contemporary crop of politicians ever been an example of anything worthy of emulating?
Yes Neil Hamilton is a Welsh assembly member, UKIP. Sorry RMF it's her whole pig ignorant demeanour I can't take. Yes she's in good company with other obnoxious older MPs but that doesn't excuse her.
Marc wrote: "is Neil Hamilton actually an elected representative these days? What, at local level?For once I agree with RMF; when have our contemporary crop of politicians ever been an example of anything wor..."
It's true Marc - Neil Hamilton is a member of the Welsh assembly. He's UKIP's leader in Wales :(
He was being interviewed on the news the other day - I nearly choked on my breakfast.
Talk about the dead walking the Earth.
Lynne (Tigger's Mum) wrote: "Yes Neil Hamilton is a Welsh assembly member, UKIP. Sorry RMF it's her whole pig ignorant demeanour I can't take. Yes she's in good company with other obnoxious older MPs but that doesn't excuse her."
We'll have to agree to disagree on this.
doesn't say a lot for the other candidates put up against him does it
I think it was the transferable vote system that allowed him to weasel in.
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