Green Group discussion
Climate Change
>
Climate Change Acceleration Breaking the Scales - Part II
Mod
"Climate change is here and now and there is nowhere to hide. That was the key message from World Weather Attribution this week.
This is the group of climate scientists who analyse extreme weather events to decipher whether or not changing climate was responsible, and if how much impact did it have.
They published an analysis of the ten most deadly extreme weather events of the past 20 years as a result of which more than 570,000 people died.
They concluded unequivocally that, yes, human-caused climate change intensified every single one of those most deadly events.
Four of those top ten global weather disasters occurred in Europe."
Mod
""It is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels," said Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Deputy Director Samantha Burgess.
"This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, countries committed to action to limit temperature rises to "well below" 2C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to keep them to 1.5C, beyond which the most devastating impacts of storms, floods, droughts, heatwaves, nature loss and rising seas are expected.
The data also shows that October 2024 was the second-warmest month globally, second only to October 2023, and was 1.65C above pre-industrial levels."
2025 will probably be no different. The political decisions are based on imperfect data that is typically on the low side. They don't increase the values to make up for the incomplete data. The business world is most likely where any purposeful change will come from as their losses continue to mount. The numbers the business world is seeing are real.
Mod
"According to lead author Assistant Professor Jeppe Kristensen from Aarhus University in Denmark, the unique characteristics of Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems make them poorly suited for tree planting for climate mitigation.
"Soils in the Arctic store more carbon than all vegetation on Earth," said Kristensen. "These soils are vulnerable to disturbances, such as cultivation for forestry or agriculture, but also the penetration of tree roots. The semi-continuous daylight during the spring and early summer, when snow is still on the ground, also makes the energy balance in this region extremely sensitive to surface darkening, since green and brown trees will soak up more heat from the sun than white snow."
In addition, the regions surrounding the North Pole in North America, Asia and Scandinavia are prone to natural disturbances—such as wildfires and droughts—that kill off vegetation. Climate change makes these disturbances both more frequent and more severe."
More information: Tree planting is not an effective climate solution at high northern latitudes, Nature Geoscience (2024).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4156...
Journal information: Nature Communications , Nature Geoscience
Provided by Aarhus University
The researchers agree that tree planting has other benefits, such as wood. I would see a major benefit of trees, which is a home for wildlife. From owls to lynxes, a forest is a home.
"Instead, we call for a systems-oriented consideration of climate solutions that are rooted in an understanding of the whole suite of relevant Earth system processes that affect the radiative balance."Not being able to see the whole article and not understanding what kind of climate solutions were being considered I looked around to see what else the lead author had published or been involved with. I found another Nature article that is very long, pretty easy to understand and what is being said is clearly documented.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158...
A 2-million-year-old ecosystem in Greenland uncovered by environmental DNA
The DNA article is from 2 years ago and made it into mainstream news.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story...
In the article it uses ancient DNA to apparently indicate that Greenland was a forest land with lots of animals, including all kinds of mammals that would be common to a place filled with forests and fields over an extended period of time. Plus a robust marine life in the ocean water.
"The record shows an open boreal forest ecosystem with mixed vegetation of poplar, birch and thuja trees, as well as a variety of Arctic and boreal shrubs and herbs, many of which had not previously been detected at the site from macrofossil and pollen records. The DNA record confirms the presence of hare and mitochondrial DNA from animals including mastodons, reindeer, rodents and geese, all ancestral to their present-day and late Pleistocene relatives. The presence of marine species including horseshoe crab and green algae support a warmer climate than today. The reconstructed ecosystem has no modern analogue."
This would show that Greenland did have forests on it because that was what the climate back then supported. If trees are going to grow there we might as well get a head start and plant what used to grow there. Places where Nature is able to start new growth patterns are a good place to encourage new growth because the new climate would support the new growth thus it need less energy from people in order for it to prosper and be successful.
The thing about not planting trees is assuming that our climate goes back to the way it was, so you wouldn't want to be doing things that would warm up the area. But if it is going to continue to warm up, then growing a lot more trees would shade the ground and protect it from erosion.
I think to get the climate back to where it was, all the water that has melted from the ice, glaciers, and permafrost would have to be moved back up north and south to the polar regions and would have to be frozen to get it to stay there. No one says what to do with all the new water in the climate system. I don't think we can go back to where were and keep the added water we have gotten so far.
One way to get rid of the water is to have an ice age, which isn't a good choice. I don't think we are anywhere near being able to get the excess water back to where it came from and freeze it in place. Nor do I think we could collect all that water and store it in tanks, so it would stay out of the weather cycle.
As for having more of a fire risk with more trees, we need to be able to handle the fires we are having now in a much better controlled fashion so the fires don't get out of hand. If we can put out fires where we live, then we should be able to put out fires anywhere.
In earlier times, it was okay to let fires burn, it was beneficial to the overall environment. But in these times of severe weather and extreme conditions, letting big fires burn is clearly not beneficial to anything.
Mod
Mod
The suggestion is made that, faced with the warming planet, many changes are made, and one is to add yellow dye to the Arctic Ocean. The dye is apparently harmless and stops the sunlight getting absorbed by the water, so it bounces back to space. The flaw in the reasoning is that Russia in particular is shown as glad to help. Russia has embraced the opening of the Circle trade route, so far as we can know, enjoys having its harbours ice-free more of the year, and has better access to exploit resources with an ice-free ocean. No major cities are next to the ocean so sea-level rise is not a big issue for them.
Kim Stanley Robinson
Mod
"Chief Executive Officer of the United Nations COP29 Climate Change Conference Elnur Soltanov has been recorded by Global Witness apparently agreeing to help facilitate fossil fuel industry deals at the summit, reported The Guardian.
A member of the campaign organization posed as a fake oil and gas representative offering to sponsor the event in exchange for assistance with the deals.
“COP29 officials abused their positions by facilitating talks about oil and gas deals at a climate conference, pitching a dystopian future which includes fossil fuels ‘perhaps forever,’” a spokesperson for Global Witness said in a press release. “Petrostates are perfecting a sinister playbook which sees COP as just another business opportunity for polluters.”
Officials of COP29 — which begins next week in Baku, Azerbaijan — provided an introduction for the phony investor to a senior executive of the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) to discuss potential investments.
Soltanov, who is also Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister, promised “to create a contact between yourself and [SOCAR]… so that they can start discussions.”"
Here is the original site, Global Witness.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/camp...
"An undercover investigation reveals how the Azerbaijani petrostate used its position as host of COP29 to facilitate discussion of new fossil fuel deals at the annual UN climate conference.
...
"Soltanov thinks he’s meeting with EC Capital, an oil and gas investor.
As the CEO of COP29, responsible for making a success of the summit, Soltanov has been asked to meet with EC Capital by his partnerships team, who are hoping to finalise a lucrative sponsorship agreement.
What Soltanov doesn’t know is that he’s actually meeting an undercover Global Witness investigator via video link.
After the usual pleasantries, EC Capital introduces itself as “specialising in global investments in the oil and gas industry,” as well as being “very interested in investing in the oil and the gas industry in Azerbaijan.”
And why wouldn’t you want to invest in Azerbaijan?
The war in Ukraine left Europe bereft of Russian gas, and some of the world’s richest countries have been flocking to Baku ever since, begging for fossil fuels.
Azerbaijan can lock itself in as Europe’s supplier of choice for a decade or more, and Global Witness analysis shows the government plans to increase gas production by one-third over the next 10 years.
In January, officials announced surprise plans to privatise parts of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR). Naturally, firms like EC Capital are interested.
EC Capital’s dual role as both an oil and gas player and a climate conference sponsor isn’t unusual either. COP29 is explicit that it wants every sector to participate, meaning the oil industry is invited.
As Soltanov says: “If there is something that oil and gas corporations can bring to the table in terms of tackling the climate crisis, they are welcome.”
In any case, previous COPs have almost all been awash with representatives of the oil and gas industry. So yes, EC Capital is welcome to attend COP, and especially welcome to sponsor it.
...
"In an apparent conflict of interest, acknowledging his two hats as COP29 CEO and Azerbaijan’s deputy energy minister, Soltanov offers to help facilitate discussions about investment in the country’s oil and gas sector.
He promises “to create a contact between yourself and [SOCAR] … so that they can start discussions.”
Similarly, he says that “COP is not about oil and gas … the purpose is solving the climate crisis” but also suggests that EC Capital “incorporate your activities with SOCAR’s activity during COP, so that you can … talk business to them and also participate in the COP29 process."
He touts “gas fields that are to be developed," Azerbaijan’s “pipeline infrastructure” and SOCAR’s trading arm that is “trading oil and gas, all over the world, including in Asia.” COP is open for business.
After the meeting with Soltanov, EC Capital follows up, asking for the promised introduction to SOCAR to “arrange discussions about investment when we visit Baku in November.” A few days later, Soltanov delivers.
Elshad Nassirov, one of SOCAR’s most senior executives, writes to EC Capital, asking to meet in Baku. "
Statistically speaking, natural gas is not increasing its percentage of electric power generation. This is because the percentage of electric power generated by natural gas is compared against the total amount of electric power that was generated. The total amount of electric power being generated has increased over the years. The maximum amount of electric power generated of the past few years has varied from year to year due to various situations, ranging from drought, covid, economic conditions, to lack of rainfall for hydroelectric power. But overall, the entire amount of electric power has been increasing every couple of years.
Alternative power sources have been increasing over the years, contributing to the overall total production of electric power. The total amount of electric power being generated has also increased which means that even though the percentage of electric power generated by natural gas has remained steady or flat, the amount of natural gas being burned has increased, not decreased.
This means emissions from burning natural gas have increased in the physical amount over time, the emissions have not decreased.
At the same time, the world's two most populous countries have been decreasing the amount of natural gas used to generate electricity while increasing the amount of coal being burned to generate electricity.
This means that the green house gas emissions from generating electricity have been increasing, not decreasing, which is contributing to global warming.
The COP talks have decided that the yearly amount that needs to be collected for the Loss and Damage Fund for developing countries should be around 100 billion dollars. Another branch of the UN, UNEP, United Nations Environment Program, has calculated that the amount of money needed annually would be 387 billion dollars.
Various plans have been circulating as to how the funds would be collected, managed, and distributed. Originally some highly developed countries were claiming that they should be classified as developing countries to avoid paying into the fund. That seems to be straightened out but now there is a proposal that would have the developing countries also contribute to the fund.
https://apnews.com/article/loss-damag...
https://www.unep.org/resources/adapta...
Mod
Nations Still Far Apart on Crucial COP29 Issue of Finance as UN Climate Talks Reach Final Days
Statement by Dr. Rachel Cleetus, Union of Concerned Scientists:
https://www.ucsusa.org/about/news/nat...
Mod
"Countries at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan adopted a $300 billion (€288bn) a year global finance target to help poorer nations cope with impacts of climate change, a deal its intended recipients criticised as woefully insufficient.
The agreement, clinched in overtime at the two-week conference in Baku, was meant to provide momentum for international efforts to curb global warming in a year destined to be the hottest on record.
Some delegates gave the deal a standing ovation in the COP29 plenary hall. Others lambasted wealthy nations for not doing more and criticised host country Azerbaijan for hurriedly gavelling through the contentious plan."
More details are coming in on COP money for developing nations. Private companies and international lenders like the World Bank would cover the hundreds of billions in the shortfall. Lending the money isn't going to accomplish anything.They need money now, 387 billion per year starting now. Money is needed for multiple efforts. First there is transitioning to cleaner power solutions, next is rebuilding the infrastructure to withstand harsher weather conditions, third is repairing storm damage to infrastructure and people as soon as it happens, and maintaining the food supply if and when it becomes compromised by the changing climate.
The COP agreement has the figure of 300 billion per year reached by 2035 which is 11 years from now. A lot will happen between now and then. According to the New York Times, independent sources say that the figure needed is more like 1.3 trillion a year. The point 3 trillion is 300 billion, far short of the mark.
Mod
"As Arctic climate warms, even Santa runs short of snow
With a month to go until Christmas, Santa Claus is busy preparing, but the warming climate and lack of snow in his Arctic hometown have him worried. By this time of year, the town of Rovaniemi in Finnish Lapland -- marketed by tourism officials since the 1980s as the "real" home of Santa Claus -- should be white and pretty. But on a recent visit, rain poured down from a gloomy slate sky and the temperature was well above freezing, with the thermometer showing +2C. "My reindeer can fly, so that's no problem," said the man in the red suit and long white beard, resting his weary legs after a long day of meeting excited children and adults.
But "we can see that climate change is real. And it's affecting the reindeer. It's affecting life here in the Arctic," added the man, whose employers declined to identify him by his real name. Herders say milder and more unpredictable winters have left reindeer struggling to dig up their main food, lichen. Snow and ice have melted and refrozen, burying it under layers of packed ice. The Arctic is warming faster than other parts of the world due to climate change -- nearly four times as fast, according to research published by Finland-based scientists in the journal Nature in 2022.
Warming global temperatures, driven by humans burning fossil fuels, have been aggravating weather disasters such as floods and droughts worldwide in recent years. In Finnish Lapland, after a historically warm summer, a new November temperature record was set a few weeks ago when 11.1C was measured in the town of Utsjoki, breaking the previous record of 11.0C from 1975."
AFP
Mod
"The first summer on record that melts practically all of the Arctic's sea ice, an ominous milestone for the planet, could occur as early as 2027.
...
"Sea ice protects the Arctic from warming by reflecting incoming sunlight back into space. With less reflective ice, darker ocean waters will absorb more heat from the sun, further increasing temperatures in the Arctic and globally. In addition, warming in the Arctic could change wind and ocean current patterns, leading to more extreme weather events around the world.
But there's also good news: A drastic cut in emissions could delay the timeline for an ice-free Arctic and reduce the time the ocean stays ice-free, according to the study.
"Any reductions in emissions would help preserve sea ice," Jahn said."
More information: Céline Heuzé et al, The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030, Nature Communications (2024).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146...
Journal information: Nature Communications
Provided by University of Colorado at Boulder
Mod
"Although GenCast wasn’t explicitly trained to forecast severe weather patterns, it was able to predict the path of Typhoon Hagibis before landfall in central Japan. One of the deadliest storms in decades, the typhoon flooded neighborhoods up to the rooftops as water broke through levees and took out much of the region’s electrical power.
GenCast’s ensemble prediction was like a movie. It began with a relatively wide range of possible paths for Typhoon Hagibis seven days before landfall. As the storm edged closer, however, the AI got more accurate, narrowing its predictive path. Although not perfect, GenCast painted an overall trajectory of the devastating cyclone that closely matched recorded data.
Given a week of lead time, “GenCast can provide substantial value in decisions about
when and how to prepare for tropical cyclones,” wrote the authors.
Accurate and longer predictions don’t just help prepare for future climate challenges. They could also help optimize renewable energy planning. Take wind power. Predicting where, when, and how strong wind is likely to blow could increase the power source’s reliability—reducing costs and potentially upping adoption of the technology. In a proof-of-concept analysis, GenCast was more accurate than ENS at predicting total wind power generated by over 5,000 wind power plants across the globe, opening the possibility of building wind farms based on data.
GenCast isn’t the only AI weatherman. Nvidia’s FourCastNet also uses generative AI to predict weather with a lower energy cost than traditional methods. Google Research has also engineered myriad weather-predicting algorithms, including NeuralGCM and SEEDS. Some are being integrated into Google search and maps, including rain forecasts, wildfires, flooding, and heat alerts. Microsoft joined the race with ClimaX, a flexible AI that can be tailored to generate predictions from hours to months ahead (with varying accuracies)."
Mod
Last winter, we were having a storm every week or ten days, some storms lasting for five days.
https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2024/...
"The National Directorate for Fire & Emergency Management (NDFEM), Met Éireann and other stakeholders met this morning to discuss the impact of Storm Darragh.
The NDFEM said there has been significant disruption to electricity supply throughout the country - with a greater impact than Storm Ophelia - with the estimated restoration being a multiple-day event.
The NDFEM said ESB teams are out repairing the damage to the network with the assistance of the Defence Forces."
Quite a destructive storm. Worse than Storm Ophelia back in 2017 which was then the worst storm to happen in 50 years. Its good to see the Defence Forces going to work immediately to help repair the damage. In the US it takes time for the military to be called in to help and then it is the limited abilities of the states National Guards not the federal military that can do anything needed.
Mod
Mod
"In order to calculate the potential effects of this reduced albedo, the researchers applied an established energy budget model capable of mimicking the temperature response of complex climate models.
What they found: without the reduced albedo since December 2020, the mean temperature in 2023 would have been approximately 0.23 degrees Celsius lower.
One trend appears to have significantly affected the reduced planetary albedo: the decline in low-altitude clouds in the northern mid-latitudes and the tropics. In this regard, the Atlantic particularly stands out, i.e., exactly the same region where the most unusual temperature records were observed in 2023.
"It's conspicuous that the eastern North Atlantic, which is one of the main drivers of the latest jump in global mean temperature, was characterized by a substantial decline in low-altitude clouds not just in 2023, but also—like almost all of the Atlantic—in the past 10 years." The data shows that the cloud cover at low altitudes has declined, while declining only slightly, if at all, at moderate and high altitudes.
The fact that mainly low clouds and not higher-altitude clouds are responsible for the reduced albedo has important consequences. Clouds at all altitudes reflect sunlight, producing a cooling effect. But clouds in high, cold atmospheric layers also produce a warming effect because they keep the warmth emitted from the surface in the atmosphere."
More information: Helge F. Goessling, Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo, Science (2024). www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.a...
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/s...
Journal information: Science
Mod
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-year-vo...
"The eruption in 1831 is Earth's most recent "mystery eruption." While scientists knew it was a major event that caused climatic change and societal upheaval, the identity of the volcano responsible remained unknown and fiercely debated, until now.
New research, led by Dr. Will Hutchison from the School of Earth and Environmental Science at the University of St Andrews, and published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on December 30, reveals how the team analyzed ice core records from the 1831 event and identified a "perfect fingerprint match" of the ash deposits.
"Only in recent years have we developed the ability to extract microscopic ash shards from polar ice cores and conduct detailed chemical analyses on them. These shards are incredibly minute, roughly one-tenth the diameter of a human hair," explained Dr. Hutchison.
Dr. Hutchison and his team were able to accurately date and match the ice core deposits to Zavaritskii volcano on the remote, uninhabited island of Simushir, part of the Kuril Islands. The islands are a disputed territory between Russia and Japan. Currently controlled by Russia, they operate as a strategic military outpost. During the Cold War, in a plotline reminiscent of a Bond film, the Soviets used Simushir as a secret nuclear submarine base, docking vessels in a flooded volcanic crater."
More information: William Hutchison et al, The 1831 CE mystery eruption identified as Zavaritskii caldera, Simushir Island (Kurils), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2024).
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas...
Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Provided by University of St Andrews
We know of many different kinds of substances that the Natural World releases into the environment that affect the climate. There is a lot of methane precariously held in place on the ocean floor. We have no idea of the exact quantity as we have not scanned the entire ocean floor yet. Earthquakes or volcanic eruptions could shake it lose.
One huge volcanic eruption could disrupt all of our predictions.
More than likely none of our climate modeling programs takes random natural occurring events into account. By assuming its not going to happen or by ignoring the input this puts the estimates the programs generate less likely to be where we end up.
To remedy this situation we probably need to cut back our emissions even more.
Mod
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2025/01...
"A winter storm has brought snow, ice and freezing temperatures to a broad swathe of the US, with some 60 million people across more than a dozen states from Kansas to New Jersey under winter weather warnings and advisories.
The storm was moving toward the mid-Atlantic, where Washington DC was bracing for heavy snow and bitter cold,"
ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — A major grower, Alico Inc., said this week it was abandoning its citrus growing operations, reflecting the headwinds Florida’s signature crops are facing following a series of hurricanes and tree diseases. The company said its citrus production had declined by 73% over the past decade. https://apnews.com/article/florida-ci...
Mod
Mod
"About a quarter of its land holdings will now be slotted for potentially developing commercial or residential projects "
...like people aren't going to be affected by hurricanes in their dwellings. They are also going to lay off workers, who potentially won't be able to afford to buy homes.
Its possible that living in Florida is going to become very expensive. The property insurance is getting very expensive, and is already too much for some people. The building codes were strengthened to withstand winds of 120 miles an hour. That proved inadequate for hurricane Michael in 2018.The property insurance business is already subsidized but the costs keep going up because of all the damage that happens every year. For some it is not affordable and may not be available in the future. Its not just coastal regions but that kind of damage can go far inshore and Florida is a peninsula which doesn't help the situation. Structures have to face high storm surge, flooding, and high winds which sets up 4 choices for building.
Storm proofing has become very expensive. What needs to be done can be easily seen with the Sand Palace house. Building from the ground up it is easy to do. Trying to storm proof some structures will require the structure to be knocked down and then rebuilt.
Build something that can be completely rebuilt without insurance, after a bad storm. That costs a lot of money.
Build something with an extremely expensive property insurance cost. The policies would have to be based on the idea that the structure would eventually get damaged.
Build something that can withstand 240 mph winds and is water tight. The Sand Palace in the panhandle is such a house, it cost $400,000 to build, around 20 percent of the cost was to make it absolutely storm proof. Which it appears to be but it has not faced a tornado which is becoming more common place with hurricanes in Florida.
https://www.icfmag.com/2019/09/mexico...
Don't build anything in those areas.
A few more storms will probably formulate a workable policy.
Farms have the same problem. They have to constructed to be storm proof and so far there is no way to build storm proof farms. Even if the farm structures and property it self is not destroyed, the crops will be.
The weather is just too powerful for what we build, how we build it, and where we build it. In New England, all the high land was claimed a very long time ago. To keep the "new" building industry going land was used that is actually in rivers as well as alongside rivers, In reclaimed flat land areas that were used to hold lakes and ponds, and in low areas that will act as rivers when the run off becomes too intense.
So far the extreme storm damage is limited to small areas which allows for the rest of the built up locations to continue to exist without a lot of changes. Flooding in parts of New England could become rare if the new rainfall patterns continue where areas receive substantially less rainfall then they used to.
For the areas that do get the extra rain and flooding, the solution is simple, don't rebuild it.
The current drought in New England is being driven by the way the traditional seasons changed due to climate change. Which could make the changes permanent, at least for a long time.
https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs...
Mod
Climatologist Katherine Hayhoe tells us that the US now experiences a weather or climate disaster every three weeks which costs a billion dollars or more.
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-earth-h...
The amount of material that is dumped in the environment increases each year. We have reduced the amount of emissions on paper but not in real life. We are still putting out more emissions each year even though the percentage of the total amount of power generated with greenhouse emissions has decreased. The problem is that the total amount of power generated increases each year. That moves the goal posts farther away.
Until we decrease the amount of everything being dumped into the environment the global average temperature is going to continue to increase.
The business world is the driving force. They can act in unison or randomly. They can continue to not do enough or they can start doing enough to decrease the amount of material dumped into the environment. Probably the changes will be more or less meaningless until the losses start reducing profits noticeably, then something will be done.
Mod
They start in 1850 with the UK as biggest carbon emitter and move forward, showing the nations changing, adding shipping and then aviation as though they were nations.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/greenp...
There is so much more that counts as emissions of carbon dioxide. I wonder if that changes anything. It would be nice to see the same thing for carbon use, plastic use, agricultural and energy imports and exports.Glass half full or half empty. The percentages that show the overall growth of the northern hemisphere based on industry compared to Africa and the Mideast are used to show that the northern regions need to give more support to the countries that haven't become heavily industrialized yet.
As the very low numbers for Africa and the Mideast grows, how much of that will fuel additional lobal warming. It would appear that as Africa and the Mideast become industrialized, the northern regions will have to cut back even more.
Business as usual"While the United States may not be party to the Paris Agreement, it will still be part of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which hosts annual climate negotiations known as COPs. This year’s COP will be held in Brazil in November and nations will be announcing new pledges for emissions reductions." Max Bearak, New York Times.
Mod
""We expected this hike in permit fees," said Lukas Furtenbach of Austria-based expedition organiser, Furtenbach Adventures.
He said it was an "understandable step" from the government of Nepal.
"I am sure the additional funds will be somehow usedto protect the environment and improve safety on Everest," Mr Furtenbach said.
Mr Regmi did not say what the extra revenue would be used for.
Hundreds of climbers try to scale Mount Everest and several other Himalayan peaks every year.
Nepal is often criticised by mountaineering experts for allowing too many climbers on Everest and doing little to keep it clean or to ensure climbers' safety.
Mr Regmi said cleaning campaigns were organised to collect garbage and rope fixing as well as other safety measures were undertaken regularly.
Climbers returning from the Everest say the mountain is becoming increasingly dry and rocky with less snow or other precipitation, which experts say could be due to global warming or other environmental changes."
Mod
"After millennia as a carbon deep-freezer for the planet, regional hotspots and increasingly frequent wildfires in the northern latitudes have nearly canceled out that critical storage capacity in the permafrost region, according to a study published in Nature Climate Change.
An international team led by Woodwell Climate Research Center found that a third (34%) of the Arctic-boreal zone (ABZ)—the treeless tundra, boreal forests, and wetlands that make up Earth's northern latitudes—is now a source of carbon to the atmosphere. That balance sheet is made up of carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake from plant photosynthesis and CO2 released to the atmosphere through microbial and plant respiration.
When emissions from fire were added, the percentage grew to 40%."
More information: Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake, Nature Climate Change (2025).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
Journal information: Nature Climate Change
Provided by Woodwell Climate Research Center
The amount needed for decreased emissions by people keeps growing because it has been highly under estimated. Instead of cutting back emissions from current practices we might have to change the way things are done from the ground up.The Natural World has been processing carbon since time began. It has taken many years to store the carbon. As the temperature rises the stored up carbon is now being released at faster and faster rates.
The modeling now needs to look at naturally captured carbon formerly not included in the equations as an additional source which is being released at increasing levels.
It will be difficult for the Natural World to capture the additional carbon as the means to do this are being shut down by climate change.
The Natural World starts and ends ice ages. What triggers the start of an ice age is not known. It takes a lot of heat to end an ice age. We have unwittingly supplied and ignited the tinder to start a big heat wave that normally remains in check for long periods of time because the tinder is not easily available.
When the Natural World starts dumping its sequestered carbon overnight, that has taken thousands of years to take out of circulation, the result will be a huge heat wave that will create a new climate that will make its own rules and regulations.
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/weather/2025/...
"The chair of the National Emergency Co-ordination Group has said Storm Éowyn will probably be among the "severest storms" that Ireland has ever seen.
Keith Leonard said it will result in very difficult conditions for everybody and cause serious disruption to transport and significant power outages.
He said it is likely that the number of people who will lose power will top the 385,000 figure from Storm Ophelia in 2017.
He said those under the Red advisory should shelter until the warning is lifted. However, difficult conditions will remain he said, adding it is expected there will be debris on roads and trees down.
Schools will be closed and he said the "ideal" would be for people to work from home.
He said those who can, should travel to work before the warning comes into place and remain there until it expires."
The weather is taking a bigger role in our affairs. The southern US is experiencing a snow storm this week. It does snow in the south from time to time but this time the snow was deep enough to stop vehicles from moving around for a day or two in some places because they don't have snow removal equipment.
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0124/149...
"Record-breaking 715,000 power outages due to storm
Gusts of 183km/h recorded at Ceann Mhása in Co Galway"
Damage includes a tree falling onto a domestic heating oil tank, spilling oil near a river. Houses and commercial buildings are damaged, roads have downed trees.
A new sports structure was destroyed. I don't see why you wouldn't build this as demountable.
https://www.rte.ie/sport/football/202...
Mod
Mod
"It is only in the past ten years that the big ones in this part of the world have been given names - like storms Babet, Debi and Barra.
Throughout that ten-year period, by this stage in all those storm seasons, Ireland had been impacted by a total of 51 named storms.
That is an average of five named storms by 24 January in each of the last ten years.
In that sense, it is not at all surprising that storm Éowyn - the fifth named storm of the 2024/25 storm season - should arrive right now.
What is surprising however, is that Éowyn is shaping up to be the strongest storm yet.
...
"But what really sets this storm apart is the rapid boost it is getting from an extremely powerful jet stream, flowing about 10km above our heads.
The jet stream is currently blowing across the Atlantic at speeds that are at least 100km/h faster than normal.
This stream of air which usually moves at 300-350km/h is now travelling at 425km/h and more.
This offers a huge boost for airplane speeds crossing the Atlantic from America to Europe, or course.
For instance, one passenger plane reached 1,344km/h on a trip from New York to Lisbon in Portugal, shaving over an hour off the journey time.
Another, on a flight from Las Vegas to Heathrow, flew at 1,310km/h.
These are approaching record speeds for air travel and serve as a very good indicator of just how unusual the conditions above our heads are right now as Storm Éowyn approaches."
It's called normalization when the unusual becomes usual. It hardly describes the situation.
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0124/149...
"Gusts of 183km/h were recorded at Ceann Mhása in Co Galway, making the storm one of the most powerful to hit Ireland since the so-called "night of the big wind" in 1839."
The Big Wind: A Novel of Ireland by Beatrice Coogan
The Big Wind by Peter Carr
Hurricane!!: The Night of the Big Wind: Donegal 1839 by Patrick Campbell
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-...
"Meteorologists say Éowyn was an extratropical storm rather than a hurricane.
Hurricanes usually form in a different way over warm seas that need to be at least 26C or more.
They behave differently to extratropical storms, have different shapes, and their strongest winds are located at a different location in their cloud formations.
Extratropical storms like Éowyn usually form over land rather than sea.
They are fuelled when enormous masses of extremely cold air are butted up against a huge mass of very warm air. The upshot is a chain of meteorological events that can supercharge wind speeds.
...
"At 60 degrees of latitude, meteorologists classify a drop of air pressure of 24 millibars in 24 hours as "explosive cyclogenesis".
The air pressure at the centre of Storm Éowyn however, dropped by a massive 52 millibars in 24 hours before it landed.
This is far above the threshold required for a weather bomb and is unprecedented in modern times.
It was made even more impactful by the fact that this explosive cyclogenesis event was occurring just as the peak of the storm approached Ireland’s west coast.
If the cyclogenesis had happened hundreds of miles offshore, it might have left some time for the hurricane force winds to ease a little before they reached land."
Last night on Sky News I also caught the new term a sting jet.
https://news.sky.com/story/sting-jet-...
"Satellite imagery suggests a sting jet developed around 5am, the Met Office said.
A sting jet is a small area of very intense winds, which can be as strong as 100mph or more, according to the service."
Sting jets are rare in the US. We get straight line winds which typically cover a wider area and have a constant speed. Its the same concept, an intense downdraft hits the surface with a very destructive force.
The article said it was hard to see a connection between climate change and Storm Éowyn. It seems like there are a lot of coincidences at work that wouldn't be happening if the overall global temperature hadn't increased. During the course of the storm it was affected by climate change. When the storm was in the south east US it had greater precipitation because of warmer Gulf of Mexico temperatures.
While Storm Éowyn wasn't a hurricane because it was a cold water storm, it did interact with a warmer ocean as it traveled towards Europe and it did interact with the jet stream.
The jet stream played a role in the Storm Éowyn's course and impact. The jet streams have been changed by the rising global temperature and the changing temperature gradients between the polar regions and the equator regions making them stronger and more unstable or more wavy.
The atmosphere below the jet streams has changed considerably and the upper atmosphere is also changing though much less is known about how the upper atmosphere works normally or in these changing conditions.
The jet streams are in between t]he upper atmosphere and the ground atmosphere. Changes in these two levels would probably impact how the jet streams run in between the two.
https://news.ucar.edu/132935/jet-stre...
https://www.franklin.uga.edu/news/sto...
https://www.climatecentral.org/climat...
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-...
The highest wind speed recorded in Ireland during Storm Éowyn was 114 mph (183 km/h). This record-breaking gust was measured at Mace Head in Connemara, County Galway. The turbine that was blown down was located in County Galway.The wind turbine that was knocked down in Indreabhán, County Galway, Ireland, was part of a wind farm that was commissioned in 2006. This means the turbine was around 19 years old when it was knocked down by Storm Éowyn.
The wind turbines in the wind farm commissioned in 2006 in Indreabhán, County Galway, Ireland, have a typical life expectancy of around 20 to 25 years, typically 25 years with good maintenance,
The Indreabhán, County Galway turbines are designed to withstand sustained winds of up to 112 mph (180 km/h) and peak 3-second gusts of up to 156 mph (251 km/h).
The up to 114 mph (183 km/h) wind bursts in Mace Head, Connemara, lasted for about three to four hours.
Mod
The timber sails were blown completely off the windmill.
https://www.rte.ie/news/connacht/2025...
Mod
https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/0125/149...
"Three new weather warnings have been issued for tomorrow as the clean-up following Storm Éowyn continues.
Two Status Yellow warnings for wind have been issued for six counties, along with Munster, with Met Éireann warning of further damage to already weakened structures and trees.
The forecaster said that heavy downpours of rain may lead to spot flooding.
Yesterday, Storm Éowyn brought record-breaking gusts of 183km/h, and the damage is still being assessed around the country."
Mod
"The rate of ocean warming has more than quadrupled over the past four decades, a new study has shown. Ocean temperatures were rising at about 0.06 degrees Celsius per decade in the late 1980s, but are now increasing at 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade."
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-ocean-s...
Green Group
Books mentioned in this topic
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? (other topics)The Caves of Steel (other topics)
Soylent Green (other topics)
One Sweet Christmas (other topics)
A Groom For Ruby (other topics)
More...
Authors mentioned in this topic
Laura Ashwood (other topics)Carolyn Haines (other topics)
Stella Perrott (other topics)
Cynthia Terelst (other topics)
Eiren Caffall (other topics)
More...
Please continue posting on the topic in this thread. Remember to show a source for your information.
https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2024...
"Japan's Mount Fuji remained snow-less as of this morning, the latest date that its majestic slopes have been bare since records began 130 years ago, the country's weather agency has said.
The volcano's snowcap begins forming on 2 October on average, and last year snow was first detected there on 5 October.
But because of warm weather, this year no snowfall has yet been observed on Japan's highest mountain, said Yutaka Katsuta, a forecaster at Kofu Local Meteorological Office.
That marks the latest date since comparative data became available in 1894, he said beating the previous record of 26 October - seen twice, in 1955 and then in 2016.
"Temperatures were high this summer, and these high temperatures continued into September, deterring cold air" which brings snow, Mr Katsuta said.
He agreed that climate change may have a degree of impact on the delay in the snowcap's formation.
Japan's summer this year was the joint hottest on record - equalling the level seen in 2023 - as extreme heatwaves fuelled by climate change engulfed many parts of the globe."