World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?
Tim Scott from S. Carolina will run for Reps: https://apnews.com/article/tim-scott-...What do you think/know of him and how are his chances?
He is a good man, but I think this is more about next election for him and not this one. He might be a vice=Presidential candidate than President. I think this about getting to know him. He has to clear Nikki Haley out of the way and this will be her chance this election.
Now it's official.DeSantis launches GOP presidential campaign in Twitter announcement plagued by glitches
https://apnews.com/article/ron-desant...
According to BBC 600,000 were watching when it finally started dropping to 300,000 by end. BBC had 3 million for its interview with Musk. Not a good sign and TV coverage was a farce, showing blank Twitter screens. Perhaps Musk should run instead as long as its the SpaceX Team doing the running.Trump doesn't seems concerned with his 38% poll lead over DeSantis but then again he may be in a prison cell or fighting one by then.
Can DeSantis trump Trump, what do you think?
Alternatively, given Trump's debating style, will the two of them cause enough damage to the other that Uncle Joe can drift on through?
Biden seems to be pouring investment into blue collar areas that Trump gained in 2016. Polls I have seen show lead for Bidenhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/bide...
Trump has significant lead over DeSantis who is probably hoping legal woes will finally catch up with Trump.
DeSantis although appearing to be next front runner is basing his record on economy in Florida and his anti-lockdown record during COVID which again was economy based while ignoring death rate which in 2021 was 18th worst in USA, but they do have an older demographic.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/so...
Still as long as the rich got richer.
I pass no comment on his announced policies and legislation on abortion, relaxing gun control and public school teaching. If it's the economy he wants to compete on then losing a Disney investment but I understand that's a whole different argument going on.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023...
On debating style Trump tore apart his competitors last time. If he's not in court, jail, bail, playing golf he can try but his competitors will fight back. They will be stupid not to raise all the legal issues in prime time debate time. yes they need to get the nomination but the Republican Party also wants to win.
Like the Democrats they will manipulate to get the candidate they believe can win.
Philip wrote: "DeSantis although appearing to be next front runner is basing his record on economy in Florida and his anti-lockdown record during COVID which again was economy based while ignoring death rate which in 2021 was 18th worst in USA, but they do have an older demographic. "3rd most populous state with an above average portion of its population in high risk categories, and it was middle of the pack in terms of covid deaths...you just demonstrated why the lockdowns were ineffective.
J.J. wrote: "Philip wrote: "DeSantis although appearing to be next front runner is basing his record on economy in Florida and his anti-lockdown record during COVID which again was economy based while ignoring ..."The rate I selected was per capita and I mentioned worse demographic. However standing on that platform will allow all the issue to be reviewed including Trump
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-says-eve...
We also have Florida's own audit
https://truthout.org/articles/state-a...
Not the thread for COVID arguments.
The point I was trying to make is that if DeSantis is going to beat Trump for the nomination (or anyone else) and then beat the Democratic candidate (Prob Biden) then his record will be scrutinised and Trump has already weighed in. DeSantis will fight back and Trump has legal own goals waiting to be scored.
I wonder why the Dems are largely ignoring all of the Florida Coof stats, and instead screaming that DeSantis is a racist?
Maybe because there can be many reasons for statistical variation. Who wants to go down that rabbit hole?
J. wrote: "I wonder why the Dems are largely ignoring all of the Florida Coof stats, and instead screaming that DeSantis is a racist?"Because they think it will work.
Philip wrote: "J.J. wrote: "Philip wrote: "DeSantis although appearing to be next front runner is basing his record on economy in Florida and his anti-lockdown record during COVID which again was economy based wh..."A little disingenuous to bring it up, then claim it doesn't belong here for discussion when the initial assessment gets torn apart. Covid will be an issue in the election, so it belongs in here very much.
Trump can criticize Desantis, and later Biden, because he has only the 2020 numbers to defend which look much better than the 2021 and 2022 numbers. But Desantis has the whole thing under his watch.
Unfortunately, the CDC link doesn't have the 2022 data alongside the 2020 and 2021, but we can flip the tab and take the 2020 data into account instead of just 2021.
For perspective, NY and Florida have similar populations, but Florida is just a little bigger. And these two states are a perfect comparisons of opposites - one state opened for business early on while the other kept people under tight lockdowns. Now if you add the total deaths together from both years, you get a number that's 4000 higher for NY.
Speaking to J's question, this is why the Democrats don't want to make Covid an issue. Their policies of lockdowns had no effect on the spread of the virus and the death toll it brought. Plus, I'm sure Democrats don't want comments Biden made in 2020 regarding Presidents and the death toll under Trump to resurface.
I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the virus. The problem is, the price you pay while doing it.One reason why NY had more deaths might be that NY has a more concentrated population, and more are likely to be inside, when transmission is easier. Florida's sunnier weather may have encouraged less close inside contact.
Ian wrote: "I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the virus. The problem is, the price y..."To begin, New Zealand is a couple of islands in the middle of nowhere whose closest neighbor is a sparsely populated island continent with a government obsession for locking people down. Of course NZ quarantined successfully.
Meanwhile New York's governor did this.
AP: Over 9,000 virus patients sent into NY nursing homes
https://apnews.com/article/new-york-a...
Philip wrote: "Biden seems to be pouring investment into blue collar areas that Trump gained in 2016. Polls I have seen show lead for Bidenhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/bide......"
On Disney and DeSantis:
The Walt Disney Company has managed to turn itself from being an entertainment industry juggernaut to being a major temptation for short sellers. This happened because Robert Iger decided to go on a major spending spree which left the Mouse levered up to his stupid ears. Seriously, going by the Walt Disney Company's last earnings report they only have c. $200 million in working capital.
The Mouse's largest creditors are companies like Blackrock which use ESG as a large part of their credit calculation. So the Mouse has to keep spewing all of the woke just to keep the bank from jacking their rates (or dumping Disney stock) and bankrupting the company.
In their quest to woke their way out of insolvency, they picked a fight with a Florida government which was not in the mood to tolerate more media shenanigans. Apparently, then CEO Chapek forgot that Disney World was so ridiculously profitable, in large part, because the Mouse controlled Reedy Creek. But Florida remembered.
In a nutshell, Walt Disney, the man, wanted to build a city of tomorrow in Florida. He sold his ideas to the then Florida legislature which approved a special zoning and taxation district for Disney's property so that the city could be built. Disney was supposed to be the developer of Reedy Creek. Once the city was built, the people living and working there would elect a government like any other city. Unfortunately, Walt died and the Walt Disney Company decided that if no city was actually built the Mouse could rule over his fiefdom forever.
The hilarious part of this is that everytime that Disney claims Florida is attacking them by dissolving Reedy Creek, they are admitting that they have been defrauding the people of Florida for fifty years.
J. wrote: "Philip wrote: "Biden seems to be pouring investment into blue collar areas that Trump gained in 2016. Polls I have seen show lead for Bidenhttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/bide......"
Thanks for explanation, so DeSantis has decided to ignore status quo and go for a big target (or appear to anyway)
Ignoring Trumps potential legal travails do you think he faces a nomination threat given his current 30% poll lead?
In this case, ignoring the status quo is the way to go.RCID Firefighters Support State Takeover of Reedy Creek Improvement District
https://wdwnt.com/2023/01/rcid-firefi...
As for Trump's chances, the only thing I can say for sure is that the nomination is his to lose.
J. wrote: "Ian wrote: "I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the virus. The problem is,..."I know NZ is a number of islands and a lot easier to make it work. The point I was trying to make is that lockdown or no lockdown will not be the cause of the discrepancy. A lockdown that is not fully implemented is actually worse than no lockdown. The fact you mentioned is a good example of some reason why NY had worse figures, and it has nothing to do with any enlightened view by de Santis.
Philip wrote: "Ignoring Trumps potential legal travails do you think he faces a nomination threat given his current 30% poll lead?..."We are 17 months from the general election. A 30 point can and probably will evaporate between now and March 2024 when the Florida primary happens. I am no so sure Trump will run the table like he did in 2016. Different times. I am not saying Desantis is the guy, but I do not think he will be a pushover.
As for Trump's legal issues, I think only one may cause him true problems. However, I think this goes away too because Biden has his own issues with documents.
I personally see Trump wearing out his welcome over the next year or so.
Ian wrote: "I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the virus. The problem is, the price y..."All of your thoughts are reasonable. Yet, there is a much bigger issues than is now remembered. NYC was hit first when there was nothing to work with and by the time Florida was hit, there were both treatments and the virus was already losing steam. There were plenty of mistakes early on and plenty of history forgotten now along with political games.
One of the big reasons to lock down was to slow the spread to help the hospitals to not get overrun.
Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the virus. The problem is,..."Perfectly reasonable explanation. Your last sentence indicates it was a different objective, and my feeling is it shouldn't be part of the 2024 election cycle. Of course, politicians being what they are do not necessarily stay with the reasonable.
Ian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "I assume it was NY that had the lockdowns. The problem then is why did they not work? There is no doubt if carried out rigorously, they do work. NZ eliminated the vir..."I actually do not think it will play much now. It will be two years on and I just do not see many points getting scored. Trump can claim victory with the vaccines, but then has to deal with all the politics surrounding it all and the anti-vaxxers.
Don't forget that Trump delegated "Project Warp Speed" to then Vice President Pence. So he can lay off some of the blame for negative health outcomes there. And then Trump can attack Biden by saying that he always believed that getting the vaccine should be a choice between you and your doctor, while "Sleepy Joe" was the one who insisted on mandates even for little kids.
I need to thank the state of New Jersey for making me laugh.Former N.J. Gov. Chris Christie to announce his 2024 presidential bid Tuesday
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024...
J. wrote: "I need to thank the state of New Jersey for making me laugh.Former N.J. Gov. Chris Christie to announce his 2024 presidential bid Tuesday
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024......"
He could not get elected dog catcher in New Jersey and he wants to be President? He is a ploy to take out Trump.
Pence announced he'd be running. What's his popularity among republican voters, if any?
Nik wrote: "Pence announced he'd be running. What's his popularity among republican voters, if any?"Right now, he's back o' the bus.
Nik wrote: "Pence announced he'd be running. What's his popularity among republican voters, if any?"I am trying to figure out why he is doing this. I wonder if he is the nice guy that rises above the mess. Can't see him lasting very long.
Papaphilly wrote: "Scout wrote: "\I worry about Trump from this point. He reminds me of the Clinton's in this manner. He has a fairly substantial following. Not enough to win the general election, but enough to cause the Republicans to lose."The reason Clinton won was not because of the wrong Republican candidate but because Ross Perot entered the race and most of the votes he drew were coming from the Republican side - Clinton's popular vote was by a plurality but not a majority.
Now ups have Tim Scott, Chris Christie and Mike Pence jumping in. Scott and Pence are both decent people but I don't think they have the ability to draw many votes. And Christie - I am from NJ and he is a joke around here. You should hear the callers on the NJ and Philly radio programs talking about him.
I am from NJ too. I am well aware he cannot be elected dog catcher. I think he is the race to try and take out Trump. He is unelectable.
So which of the Republican candidates will take the risk and condemn Trump rather than criticise the special prosecutor and by implication the Florida citizens who sat on the Grand Jury.
Philip wrote: "So which of the Republican candidates will take the risk and condemn Trump rather than criticise the special prosecutor and by implication the Florida citizens who sat on the Grand Jury."I think Christie and Pence goes after him. The rest will wait until later. they will hint around it and make indirect comments.
The wise thing for the others would be to say something like, let the justice system run its course. Anything before the courts should be off the table for politics.
Unfortunately, more often than not, in order for a poltician to be elected, he/she must tell people what they want to hear, which, all too often, has little or nothing to do with the truth. Voters representing both the extreme, radical right and extreme, radical left want things their way or no way. An honest, politician has little chance of being elected if they promote the actions and policies actually required to address the crime, mass killings, and massive debt with which the nation is plagued.
Unfortunately, that is not a glowing endorsement of democracy.
Ian wrote: "Unfortunately, that is not a glowing endorsement of democracy."True. However, compared to the aternatives: Royal decree, dictatorship, plutocracy, etc., etc. I prefer it until someone comes up with something better. One may strive for perfection, but it has never yet been attained. Millions have migrated to the United States. Not many Americans would rather live somewhere else.
democracy n 1 : government by the people; esp : rule of the majority 2 : a government in which the supreme power is held by the people.*
*Source: Merriam-Webster English Dictionary.
Jim wrote: "Ian wrote: "Unfortunately, that is not a glowing endorsement of democracy."True. However, compared to the aternatives: Royal decree, dictatorship, plutocracy, etc., etc. I prefer it until someone..."
Very true. I wrote a series of SciFi novels that focused in the background on the various forms of government and I even invented one, and then proceeded to show what was wrong with it. My conclusion was that almost any will work well if you have good people at the top. The problem is how to get to the top and just about every form of government I could come up, except one, ended up with money or guns deciding who gets to the top. Plato wanted a benign prince, and hereditary fixed the problem of money and weapons, but unfortunately history shows that those who inherit power have a very spotty record.
I don't think any system is better; it is the quality of who gets in power. Thus communism has some real advantages (and a problem with reward for effort and an incentive to work that has to be overcome or it will fail), but not when people like Lenin and Stalin are the bosses, or for that matter the geriatrics who followed.
For our non-American friends who keep asking about how individual candidates stack up with the book makers, we are at this point in the election cycle.https://youtu.be/Sp5-0f8rKJ8
Don't expect seriousness until November at the earliest.
RFK Jr. is doing fairly well against Uncle Joe in polls.https://youtu.be/vE_cGjNAvIA
A massively unpopular Democrat incumbent president facing a primary challenge from a Kennedy. This seems familiar...
Mr. Kennedy, avoid hotel kitchens, especially in California.
Not sure about massively unpopular compared to who?that said his trend is down.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-...
RFK Jr. may be doing well in the You Tube but he's not President - is he actually standing against Biden? What are his ratings against Republicans - Do Democrats believe he can
1. Beat Biden and anyone else who stands for the nomination
2. Beat the Republican candidate which will be Trump according to same polls.
I also don't like polls that casually ignore don't knows or won't tells. i.e. when pollsters have asked me I've told them to get lost. It's a secret ballot not a public one. When polls report and show 30-40% undecided, pollsters and their paid for statisticians claim those that end up voting from unknown group will split same way as main poll. A huge guess, that's frequently demonstrably incorrect.
I don't know RFK's ability to stand up to Biden or the Republicans perhaps he'll gain some anti-vaccination votes from Trump. Perhaps under scrutiny (Not on You Tube or self chosen pod casts) he'll crumble or some scandal will unfold. Perhaps he is the best thing since sliced bread. If his only attribute is age and ability to sit through a three hour pod-cast then again I'm concerned about the quality of candidates.
Mind your look at UK's choice - please don't....
Philip wrote: "Mind your look at UK's choice - please don't...."Please feel free to comment all you like about the USA. We deem freedom of speech to be so important that is was literally the First Amendment to our Constitution.
Philip wrote: "Mind your look at UK's choice - please don't...."What does this mean? I am confused.
Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Mind your look at UK's choice - please don't...."What does this mean? I am confused."
Choice of UK politicians. Those that aren't lying corrupt scumbags are thin on the ground - regardless of party and alleged principles.
Sorry being stupid. All politicians are lying .... Standing for office means lying the moment you stand. I don't think any heroes of the past would stand up to media and social media scrutiny now. E.g JFKs affairs, for RFK comparison. Then again a thrice married, sexual predator was elected. We elected a then unmarried multi-father (alleged 13 children by variety of different mothers - what did they see in short fat older guy?)
It's late and I'm despondent on future of democracy...
Philip wrote: "Then again a thrice married, sexual predator was elected. ..."Who was that?
Yep, they're all a**holes.That's why I try to look at larger patterns.
I see an increase in moral decay in society. And I'm reminded of Augustus destroying the freedoms of the Res Publica to fight degeneracy.
I hear DEI consultants lecturing us about "Privilege". And I'm brought back to Marx and Lenin using class disparities to rive society and foment revolution.
I read about how effective drones are in Ukraine. And I think about how the Great Powers ignored the reports of their observers from the Russo-Japanese War. The observers were all horrified by machine guns and trench warfare. Only the Germans paid any heed. They bought more machine guns.
As for RFK Jr.:
In 1968, the incumbent, LBJ, had bowed out when his unpopularity with Democrats became obvious in the early primaries. Robert F Kennedy (RFK Jr.'s father) entered late, and until California was well behind. RFK's plan was to make his fight in a divided convention. But then he was gunned down in the doorway of a hotel kitchen.
Up until he declared, over half of Democrats didn't want Uncle Joe to run again. He isn't popular. He is the kind of candidate who people vote for while pinching their noses.
RFK Jr. isn't his father. But he is unblemished by the Clinton machine. And he does seem to have his father's taste for a fight.
The DNC and its superdelegates stand between Kennedy and the nomination. We shall see.
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)The Federalist Papers (other topics)
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)
Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis (other topics)
Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72 (other topics)
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Authors mentioned in this topic
J.D. Vance (other topics)Tulsi Gabbard (other topics)
Smedley D. Butler (other topics)
Robert Iger (other topics)
Larry Elder (other topics)
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https://youtu.be/hjqDoPD7AXM
Ron DeSantis speaking at Hillsdale:
https://www.youtube.com/live/RI6ygDn6...