Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions? Showing 1,701-1,750 of 1,997

[J.]

Because the Democrats are saving democracy:
https://youtu.be/L1wy_kppu5U?si=ib7AO...

[J.J.]

Beau wrote: "Just when you thought politics couldn't get any worse...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...

Harris is opening up a lead over Trump in the polls.

Americans, I'm lost fo..."

Problem with the polls is they've been increasingly over sampling and over weighting Democrats and women to make it look like Harris is pulling ahead. If you dig into the data, it shows a troubling situation for Harris.

In general, Trump is winning men by a greater percentage than Harris is winning women. Depending on the poll, Trump is actually winning the Hispanic vote, and if not, he's within a couple points. And Trump's support among African Americans is still above 20%. In fact, it's still ticking upward.

Biden won in 2020 by a very narrow margin in the swing states, and his victory depended on the minority vote. Harris can't win with this shift in the minority vote toward Trump.

[J.]

Silly question: How can they oversample women when they can't define what a woman is?

[J.J.]

J. wrote: "Silly question: How can they oversample women when they can't define what a woman is?"

The respondents self identify. Most of the time the polls offer alternative choices on the gender question, but the number of respondents who choose those is insignificant.

[J.]

So, it's people who said they were women. I wonder if there is a way to differentiate actual women within that group.

[Scout]

Can you guys help me understand why we should trust polls to be accurate? They're sampling, at most about 1600 people. I've seen some with figures of 150-200 people. And it would seem to me that they can skew results by their choice of people polled. How do we know they're unbiased? And how can so few people be an accurate measure of how the country feels? What am I missing?

[Ian]

You are missing nothing. The best such polls can do is give a reasonable prediction if it is obvious. Apart from our last election, the previous ones for some time back went against what the polls said. The last one was fairly obvious thanks to disasters by Ardern.

[Papaphilly]

If the polling is being skewed as is suggested, then it is to try and drive down the other side form voting. It is a known phenomena when one side is losing, it depresses the vote. Make it look like it is over and viola.

Polls are also a snapshot in time, so unless there is a longer trend of polls, it means how this moment is doing.

[J.]

Secret Service apologizes for Pittsfield salon takeover
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/...

Breaking & entering
Vandalism
Forced quartering of troops

[Graeme]

J. wrote: "Secret Service apologizes for Pittsfield salon takeover
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/......"

And to think, all they needed to do was hire a portable toilet as used at events and building sites.

[Scout]

What do you think about the two VP candidates?

[J.]

Ian, should we be concerned that Kamala is Ardern's kind of politician?

Former New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern to Attend US Democratic Convention
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/art...

[Ian]

I( suppose it deppends on what "Kamala is Ardern's kind of politician" means.

However, NZ still has huge problems arising from Ardern's policies for which she failed to consider all the consequences. If Kamala were to spend money with Ardern's impulsiveness, I would be very concerned.

[J.]

Are you saying that Ardern was a short-sighted and profligate PM?

[Ian]

More or less, and often she did not even consult those on whom she depended.

[J.]

Then it sounds like Ardern's kind of politician is a bad thing.

[Ian]

Ardern is more or less responsible for the current mess we are in.

[Scout]

Doesn't sound good for Kamala.

Meanwhile, Kennedy throws his support to Trump. How will this affect things?

[J.J.]

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign had everyone kicked out of a restaurant in PA so they could fill it with their own people and stage a "campaign stop."

https://www.aol.com/news/pittsburgh-d...

[Kiri]

J.J. wrote: "Meanwhile, the Harris campaign had everyone kicked out of a restaurant in PA so they could fill it with their own people and stage a "campaign stop."

https://www.aol.com/news/pittsburgh-d......"

Tempest in a right wing teapot
https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/08/2...

Also there is a false dicotomy in equating Harris with the former NZ PM. There is no evidence that they are the same type of politician. Forcing a comparison or equating one to the other without evidence is silly.

[Ian]

If the best evidence is a post on X, then it is worthless.

I trust Snopes more

[J.J.]

Kiri wrote: "J.J. wrote: "Meanwhile, the Harris campaign had everyone kicked out of a restaurant in PA so they could fill it with their own people and stage a "campaign stop."

https://www.aol.com/news/pittsbur..."

Even with all of this information, we noted some online articles reporting on the campaign stop still referred to the people seated at restaurant tables, either within their stories or photo captions, simply as "diners," as if the event were organic. The people attending the private function were dining but the context of their visit constitutes more than such a word.

For example, The Associated Press called the people seated at tables "diners," with a later part in the story also mentioning the importance of "[scoring] face time with voters in small venues like diners and mom-and-pop shops." An AP photo caption also referred to them as "customers."

So they cleared the restaurant, brought in their own people, and used the press to make it look like an organic meet-and-greet. They could have saved a lot of words by saying, "yes, it was staged," instead of running cover for her because she couldn't bring herself to meet with actual residents of the area like candidates are expected to do when seeking their votes.

[Kiri]

J.J. wrote: "Kiri wrote: "J.J. wrote: "Meanwhile, the Harris campaign had everyone kicked out of a restaurant in PA so they could fill it with their own people and stage a "campaign stop."

https://www.aol.com/..."

reiterating it louder doesn't make it more true.

[J.]

Wasn't Snopes one of the outlets which claimed Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation?

[J.J.]

Kiri wrote: "J.J. wrote: "Kiri wrote: "J.J. wrote: "Meanwhile, the Harris campaign had everyone kicked out of a restaurant in PA so they could fill it with their own people and stage a "campaign stop."

https:/..."
What exactly isn't true? They didn't clear out the restaurant? Those weren't Harris's people inside when they were shaking hands and taking pictures? The media wasn't covering it as if it was a genuine campaign stop?

The only thing that isn't true is the protestors' claims that they were paid actors, but then again, if they worked for the campaign, they were in fact paid for being there?

[Nik]

I sense that elections’ frenzy went 🆙 an octave . Looks like we are gonna have an interesting autumn 🍂

[J.]

I've stocking the bar all summer.

[Nik]

Timely preparations!

[Papaphilly]

Kiri wrote: "Also there is a false dicotomy in equating Harris with the former NZ PM. There is no evidence that they are the same type of politician. Forcing a comparison or equating one to the other without evidence is silly...."

Sort of like saying Trump is going to end Democracy?

[Ian]

Sort of like asking will Trump accept a narrow loss?

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "Sort of like asking will Trump accept a narrow loss?"

That is not silly at all.

[J.]

Zuckerberg has sent a letter to Congress stating that Facebook was pressured by the Biden administration to censor posts concerning COVID. The MSM is making sure to emphasize COVID, downplaying Zuckerberg's past statements that the government pressured Facebook to censor stories deleterious to the Biden Harris campaign.

To his credit, Zuckerberg claims that Facebook will push back against the government in the future. We'll have to wait and see if that means much.

[Papaphilly]

Maybe he feels a shift in the turn of politics. It is also a way to open the door to further investigations of government censorship.

[J.]

Maybe...

I suspect that the Silicon Valley elites are looking closely at Musk's dealings in Texas. If they see enough potential gain to tip the cost benefit ratio, they may follow suit and thus gut California's tech sector. That would burn a lot of relationships with Dem politicians. Therefore they will need friends on the other side of the aisle.

[Scout]

Zuck wouldn't have made those statements without a motivation, and that sounds like a good one. I don't get why people aren't more upset that the Biden administration forced censorship and denied citizens their First Amendment rights. This is the hypocritical party that claims they're defending Democracy.

[Nik]

It should also be viewed in the context of Telegram’s founder arrested in France …

[Ian]

It is unclear what the evidence against Pavel Durov is, except he is Russian.

[Nik]

No, he’s French, and is dealt with as such. I trust French judiciary to be professional

[Ian]

He has several passports. Pavel Durov was born in that very French city cslled Leningrad.

[Graeme]

Here's a fresh prediction.

[1] [04Sept0224]: Karmla Harris doesn't make it to the November election. Pulling out for one of the following reasons: retires, is sick, dies suddenly.

Due to the late loss of a candidate, the election is not held. Various shenaigans ensue resulting in a new president who was never elected.

Noting that KH became the candidate without a single primary vote cast.

Thoughts?

[Ian]

In my opinion, there will be an election, no matter what. Also, I predict that short of an assassination, Harris will be a candidate.

Who cares whether a primary vote was cast? Had Biden died, or was declared incompetent, harris would automatically become President. How many here would vote that Biden is fully competent?

[Papaphilly]

Hey Graeme,

Can I have some of what you are having? I want to get loaded too...8^)

[J.]

Ian wrote: "...How many here would vote that Biden is fully competent?"

That's a big part of the problem. The Dems will not admit they staged a party coup to oust Biden from the ticket because we all saw his mental state in the debate.

[J.]

Papaphilly,

I really want to say Graeme is getting high on his own supply. But he was posting that Biden would be kicked off the ticket back at the start of the primary season. At that time, we both played down that possibility as remote. I have to grant the possibility just to avoid repeating the earlier mistake.

[Graeme]

Papaphilly wrote: "Hey Graeme,

Can I have some of what you are having? I want to get loaded too...8^)"

🤣🤣🤣 ...

[Graeme]

J. wrote: "Papaphilly,

I really want to say Graeme is getting high on his own supply. But he was posting that Biden would be kicked off the ticket back at the start of the primary season. At that time, we bo..."

Reality is stranger than fiction.

[Nik]

If I remember correctly Graeme also predicted a possibility of Trump getting shot...
As of now, nothing looks compelling for Kamala to retire.

[Graeme]

Hi, Nik,

I figure if I throw enough darts at the board, one of them is bound to hit the center of the target...

[Nik]

Looks like it’s working

[Ian]

What you need are two predictive journals that are available to be read but sufficiently obscure nobody does. Find problems that have yes/no answers and publish each option. in separate journals. Eventually, when one comes true, show everyone your prediction :-)