Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions? Showing 1,451-1,500 of 1,997

[Papaphilly]

Democrats have a problem. They have about 6 weeks to make a decision and there are no good choices. Once the convention happens, they are locked in to Biden. I cannot see how they dump him and not give it to Harris. Yet, she is a massive disaster, but if they bypass her, it may just shatter the party.

[[deleted user]]

I hope everyone who watched the debate enjoyed it, and that J isn't too badly hungover.

I've been scouring the UK's most anti-Trump, pro-Biden media (in other words, all of it) to find out what they made of the debate.

Even they universally accept that Trump was the clear winner and it was an absolute car crash for Biden. They are also questioning whether Biden should run.

I believe that he will be given the 2nd debate to prove himself and, if there's a repeat of this performance, they'll drop him.

The heir apparent is Newsom. Believe me, it will be Newsom. The problem for them is that he can't beat Trump. Therefore, Trump needs to step up his security for obvious reasons. For these reasons, I still don't discount there being a President Haley, who would also trounce Newsom at the polls.

Regarding Biden, his family and close friends need to take a long, hard look at themselves because getting Biden to run is cruel. He should move to a private retirement complex in Florida (Heaven knows he can afford it) and enjoy the remainder of his life relaxing, surrounded by his loved ones.

If he makes it to the election, Americans who vote for him also need to take a long, hard look at themselves. Let's not mince words, the idea of Biden as POTUS for another 4 years is a sick joke.

I get that half the population can't stand Trump. My advice to those people is simple: vote for RFK Jr instead. He is now the only left-leaning candidate who can win.

[Ian]

I think the problem for the Dems is simply they have ignored Biden's age for too long. I think with a little coaching in assertiveness Biden could have done better. As I said above, an assertive pause is good, and it would give him time to think. However, I think it is too late to keep with him. The age problem has been shown to the nation and it cannot be corrected. Nobody gets younger.

A vote for RFK as an independent is merly a vote for Trump. But for the Dems, I think they have left it too late to find an alternative assuming they don't want Kamala. Nobody else has a good enough platform. So i think they will stick with Biden, which is really a cruel and unusual punishment for him. The bad news for him is he won't get younger, and the strain of the job will age him faster and probably kill him. He should be advised to simply retire

[Graeme]

Given how badly Biden performed and the sudden rush to now knife him in the back, I'm kinda leaning to the idea that this debate was designed to 'show him up,' and enable his replacement.

I now think, he will not run. The question now becomes who will replace him.

[[deleted user]]

Ian, an assertive pause requires a lot of confidence, excellent oratory skills and a very sharp mind. He simply hasn't got those qualities.

Graeme, it's going to be Newsom. I'm absolutely convinced of it.

[Nik]

I wasn't intrigued enough to watch it, but from all the ricochets it sounds like the debate reflected Biden's current state of mind, just like I hoped. Also, we do see what looks like a fair coverage from media on all sides.
A dilemma for dems and for Biden himself. Let's see what happens when the dust settles.

[J.]

Meanwhile...

Y'all remember how Steve Bannon is going to prison for Contempt of Congress? Well it turns out that Attorney General Merrick is also in contempt for refusing to submit to a congressional subpoena and the DOJ has declined to prosecute.

House Republicans ramp up efforts to enforce Garland subpoena after contempt vote
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/merrick-...

So, what is it that Merrick is hiding? He's withholding the unedited audio of the Hur's deposition of Biden.

Special counsel alleged Biden couldn’t recall personal milestones. His response: ‘My memory is fine’
https://apnews.com/article/biden-memo...

Following last night's performance, I think we all know what is on those recordings.

[J.]

Beau, the second debate is scheduled for September 10th. The DNC Convention is scheduled for August 19th-22nd. The decision of whether to keep or drop Uncle Joe will be decided before the next debate.

[Graeme]

J. wrote: "Beau, the second debate is scheduled for September 10th. The DNC Convention is scheduled for August 19th-22nd. The decision of whether to keep or drop Uncle Joe will be decided before the next debate."

Precisely.

[[deleted user]]

Thanks for the info, J. How's the head?

What a conundrum for the Dems. Like wondering whether to draw another card after getting 16 in Pontoon. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people.

My revised prediction - they'll stick with their man but redouble their attack on Trump. Could be good news for Kennedy. Or Haley.

[J.J.]

Ian wrote: "The real problem with Biden is he never challenged Trump's evasion of questions that would be difficult for him. Trump frequently changed the topic to what he wanted to talk about.

There have been..."

Agree on the evasiveness. The child care question stood out the most for me. It seemed like an odd question given everything else voters are thinking about, but it fit perfectly with the broader issue of inflation and affordability. In a way, it was a perfect question for Trump and he passed on it.

He only casually mentioned Remain in Mexico and Catch and Release. In the immigration debate, he should have hammered the audience on his creation of one and killing of the other. And he should have specifically hammered Biden for killing the one and reinstating the other. The whole night was a perfect opportunity to remind voters of the accomplishments of his four years, but instead, he spoke in the usual vague sense.

Tax cuts. Perfect opportunity to destroy Biden's argument that they benefited the wealthy. "Yes I cut taxes, but I eliminated deductions the wealthy previously used to reduce their tax burdens, while increase the minimum standard deduction for working/middle class Americans."

He had a lot of successes during his term and this was the perfect moment to remind voters of some of them. He should have been proud of some of the things he got done, and he should have talked them up like they were his children. He might have looked like the winner compared to Biden, but it was huge wasted opportunity.

[J.J.]

J. wrote: "Beau, the second debate is scheduled for September 10th. The DNC Convention is scheduled for August 19th-22nd. The decision of whether to keep or drop Uncle Joe will be decided before the next debate."

The nomination is much sooner than that. The deadline to get on the ballot in Ohio is August 7, and they decided to hold the actual nomination virtually some time before that.

[J.]

I drank a couple of glasses of water before passing out, and I started today with a Bloody Mary. My head is fine and dandy. The Dems are all dealing with stress migraines. Joe's head seems to be harboring some amyloid plaques.

I kept focusing on how slack jawed Biden was. He literally stood there with his mouth hanging open. I half expected to see drool dripping onto his lapel.

[J.]

J.J.,

This election cycle has convinced me that as far as the DNC is concerned, the rule of law only applies when it's convenient to their own ends.

[J.]

I get the comparison between Biden and Carter on the administrative results meta. Where they fail to sync, in my mind, is their moral character.

Biden has always been a self absorbed liar and plagiarist. Can anyone point me to one instance where Joe Biden put himself on the line for a moral end?

In comparison, Carter seems to be a flawed but moral man. Thompson called him a "... vicious nut cutter..." with regard to party politics. Yet, he definitely put himself on the line.
https://youtu.be/oDE_g1bcmLg?si=lFFcU...

[J.J.]

And Jimmy Carter was a lot like Herbert Hoover. Hoover was an amazing humanitarian who handled the stock market crash poorly and couldn't steer the country back onto course.

[J.J.]

A huge surprise, a poll out of New Jersey just dropped showing Trump up by 1 point.

https://www.coefficient.org/njsenate

[J.]

I've been rewatching parts of the debate. Part of it caught in my craw.
https://youtu.be/jlCyYvLqHR4?si=jEC7U...

Trump pushed back. But he could have leveled Uncle Joe.

First he could have said that the Charlottesville story has been debunked by Snopes, before the debate. Then he could have noted that it has been the Dems supporting protesters chanting, "From the river to the sea". Then the cherry on top would have been along the lines of, "My son-in-law is a Jew. My eldest daughter converted to Judaism. Three of my grandchildren are Jews. And you have the gall to insinuate that I'm a Nazi. F.O."

[Ian]

Equally, a more dynamic Joe could have demolished Trump with his lies. Ask Trump to put money to go to the Dem fundraising if he looses the bet on his assertion that Pelosi turned down all those national guardsmen, and get someone neutral to check. Whether Trump paid or not is irrelevant, To be caught out on national TV with a follow-up of his refusal to pay would really hurt. Or he could have tried a different lie if he were not confident on that one. But Joe was asleep at the wheel and couldn't put the boot into Trump.

Even lesser idiotic statements, like Trump asserting that under Biden the southern border was the most dangerous place on Earth. A comparison of the number of deaths on the southern border with those in Gaza might have made a point. But Biden looked like one of those boxers who had been hit too much, and it needed the referee to stop the fight.

[Papaphilly]

C'mon guys, we really know what the real moment of truth was....their golf handicap! I would love a 6 handicap....8^)

[J.]

I have two handicaps. There is the public one. And then there's the private one. That's how it is because I never have a witness when I'm hitting it well.

[[deleted user]]

I'm a firm believer that golf is nothing but a good walk spoilt.

Btw, in terms of aesthetics, thought Trump looked in great shape. 6'3, 230lb of lean, mean fighting machine. A hugely impressive character. A statesman like demeanour too.

[J.]

Papaphilly, it's working. We have a Brit quoting Mark Twain.

Soon, we can begin phase two.

[J.]

Et tu, NY Times?

To Serve His Country, President Biden Should Leave the Race
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/op...

[Graeme]

1 day before the debate. Media United: "He's fit and raring to go!"

1 day after the debate. Media United: "He's too ill to continue and must step aside!"

Co-ordinated liars.

[Papaphilly]

J. wrote: "Papaphilly, it's working. We have a Brit quoting Mark Twain.

Soon, we can begin phase two."

SHHHHHHH!!!!!

[Scout]

Biden could have used "a little coaching"??? He took 8 days off from being president to go to Camp David and be coached for the debate by 16 advisors. And he was still an incoherent mess.

As far as Trump taking it easy on Biden, you could see him biting his tongue when Biden told outright lies such as that no troops have died under his watch and that no terrorists have come over the border and that he inherited high inflation from Trump. When Biden went off the rails 13 minutes in and totally lost his train of thought, Trump didn't attack. He took it easy on Joe because it would have looked cruel to attack such a mentally incompetent opponent. I thought he showed restraint. If he had been debating a competent person, he would have given them hell. But he didn't have to do that: he just let Biden sink himself.

[Nik]

Some of my friends in the States, who support Trump, were somewhat disappointed Trump didn't capitalize on Biden's weak performance....

[[deleted user]]

Our news is suggesting that the DNC apparatus wants Biden gone, but his family are urging him to fight on.

Also, all political commentators over here are now touting Newsom as the heir apparent.

J and Papaphilly, although I think Twain is up there with the wittiest quote writers of all time, I gather Harry Leon Wilson (another American) came out with the golf one. Don't know why, but I used to think it was one of Oscar Wilde's.

[Melissa]

Yeah! I'm tired of hearing about Trump in the news media. It feels like they cover every time he so much as breathes. There's a lot of other stuff going on in the world, and it would be nice if it wasn't constantly "Breaking news: Trump breathed. Breaking news: Trump tweeted. Breaking news: Trump did X."

[Nik]

Melissa wrote: "Yeah! I'm tired of hearing about Trump in the news media. It feels like they cover every time he so much as breathes. There's a lot of other stuff going on in the world, and it would be nice if it ..."

I'm afraid you are bound to suffer until the elections are over and probably afterwards, as Trump is known for hitting headlines :)

[Nik]

Sara wrote: "My Sir, I think everyone has a judgement and understanding that belongs to them, all we can do is a combination of realism and romanticism, so there is a lot we can do to ensure our family and fina..."

Hesitating whether to leave a number for romanticism or realism :)

[Nik]

Sounds good 👍, Sara. I’m very easy to talk to, as I kinda haunt this place :)
There is also an onsite messaging option.
On top of books 📚, life perspectives and elections (which this thread is about) on a realistic side you could probably offer some input and advice, as friends of mine look into properties in Umbria and Tuscany 🏡 . Regret Italian team ⚽️ left Euro so early

[Papaphilly]

Beau wrote: "Our news is suggesting that the DNC apparatus wants Biden gone, but his family are urging him to fight on.

Also, all political commentators over here are now touting Newsom as the heir apparent.
..."

Sentiment is still the same.....

[Ian]

They might want Biden gone now, but Biden may not want to go. The Dems have given Trump at least a 75% chance at being next president, through sloth.

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "They might want Biden gone now, but Biden may not want to go. The Dems have given Trump at least a 75% chance at being next president, through sloth."

The Democrats have a massive problem. It has become readily apparent that their guy is in trouble. Yet, their hands are tied. The convention is in six weeks and that gives the Democrats a window to remove Biden. That could be done if they can talk him into withdrawing. That is not the problem. The heir apparent is Harris and she is a massive disaster. Here is the problem, if Biden steps down, Harris will not step aside and any incoming candidate will have to accept her, but I do not see her just remaining number two. She has a great case she is the Democrat nominee. She is his running mate and is on the ticket. Yet, nobody wants her and everyone understands she is nothing but a liability. So here is the issue for them right now. If you force out Harris, the party will split because she is woman and of color, two big check marks. It will also give the Republicans a very big stick to beat the Democrats about the head and shoulders. If they go to the convention and Biden accepts (which he will) and if he does not make it (leave, die or incapacitated). Harris is the candidate because she is nominated along with Biden and then moves up. Once again she is a disaster. There has been talk of using the 25th Amendment on Biden, but that leaves them with the same issue and on top of that, a truly angry party that someone removed the choice of the party. On top of that, Harris is then the President and the party still faces the same choices.

[J.]

The narrative I'm seeing being pushed is that Biden's greatest achievement was saving democracy in 2020 by beating Trump, and his most important job as president is to beat Trump again.

So their message is, "BE AFRAID!" It doesn't matter how bad of a choice Biden is; Trump is worse. The Evil Orange Man will topple democracy.

After four years of "BE AFRAID!", I have zero sympathy for those who push that message.

[Ian]

Sara wrote: "I sent you a friend request, lol, I think we can talk and share more, maybe the story just surfaces a little bit, and yes, we can talk a lot about it, outlook on life, and the meaning of life, besi..."

If you sent a request on Goodreads I would have accepted.

[Ian]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "They might want Biden gone now, but Biden may not want to go. The Dems have given Trump at least a 75% chance at being next president, through sloth."

The Democrats have a massive prob..."

I agree with the massive problem. There is no reason for Harris to step down, and forcing her to do so would be a disaster for them, even if accepting her would also be. They could hope, I suppose, that she would simply step aside but that would take a huge amount of courage. I suppose she could also surprise everyone and beat Trump, but that seems a big ask.

So my guess is the US will get Trump, and it will be interesting to see what everyone here who has been attacking Biden will make of that after a few months.

[[deleted user]]

If it happens, we'll see a more worldly wise Trump, surrounded by a larger, better organised, more trusted, disciplined group of people. When this new Trump machinery comes up against the most powerful, Machiavellian force in the world, who will be grevously wounded and absolutely smarting from their election loss, we should expect to see fireworks.

[J.J.]

I don't see him stepping down. Money is still flowing in, and a post debate poll showed every possible replacement performing worse against Trump. He might be able to brush off the debate if he can present an appearance of competency going forward. However, polls are showing independents have turned against him on policy matters. Today's Harvard/Harris poll reported 2/3 of independents, for example, believe his recent action to curb the migrant crisis is a political move he will reverse after the election.

I don't doubt the polls will tighten again in the next couple of months, but right now, they suggest it will be a blowout. One recent poll has Trump up 1 point in New Jersey. New poll out of New Hampshire puts Trump up 2 points. For what it's worth, a Republican campaign poll shows New Mexico is now in play.

RFK is definitely having an effect on the election. Democrats lack enthusiasm about their candidate. If they feel the election is lost and decide to stay home, it could push Trump to victory in deep blue states like New York where Biden is up by only 8 points, or Rhode Island where Biden's lead has been slashed to 7 points.

But it's still early. A lot of things can go wrong. And never forget everyone thought Dewey was going to trounce Truman way back when.

[J.]

And I thought that Joe dropping dead was the worst thing that could happen to the Dems during the debate.
https://youtu.be/C5Y6zq18zS4?si=qb2Eq...

[Graeme]

Melissa wrote: "Yeah! I'm tired of hearing about Trump in the news media. It feels like they cover every time he so much as breathes. There's a lot of other stuff going on in the world, and it would be nice if it ..."

The media are Gollum, and Trump is their 'precious.'

[Graeme]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: "They might want Biden gone now, but Biden may not want to go. The Dems have given Trump at least a 75% chance at being next president, through sloth."

The Democrats have a massive prob..."

If Biden goes, the Biden-Harris warchest of $90M+ belongs to Harris and can't be transferred to another ticket, unless she is on it as either #1 or #2. If #2, whomever is put at #1 has to appeal to the same constituency that loves Harris.

That's a big bargaining chip.

[J.J.]

News gets worse for Biden. An internal poll conducted by Openlabs, a pollster that does polling for the Democrats, leaked today. It has Trump up big in the swing states. It has him ahead in NE-2, NH, VA, and even NM. It has Biden still up by less than 1 point in Maine-statewide and MN, and now shows CO competitive. CO used to be a swing state, but has become reliably blue the way OH and FL are now considered red.

Not sure if they're manipulating the results to convince the party to dump Biden, but either way, this is bad for him.

https://newrepublic.com/post/183411/b...

[J.]

It's wasn't Joe's fault. The darn debate was scheduled past his bedtime.

Biden blames international travel for poor debate performance, says he nearly 'fell asleep on stage'
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden...

Que an old ad.
https://youtu.be/aZ_z9Tpdl9A?si=RMoGP...
"C'mon, man. I got voicemail."

[J.J.]

J.J. wrote: "News gets worse for Biden. An internal poll conducted by Openlabs, a pollster that does polling for the Democrats, leaked today. It has Trump up big in the swing states. It has him ahead in NE-2, N..."

This could be accurate. A poll dropped today with Trump up 9 points in Nevada.

RFK is up to 12%

[Ian]

J. wrote: "It's wasn't Joe's fault. The darn debate was scheduled past his bedtime.

Biden blames international travel for poor debate performance, says he nearly 'fell asleep on stage'
https://abcnews.go.com..."

Was not the international travel a couple of weeks before the debate? If Joe can't get over it in that time he is not fit for the job, nor is he if he cannot recall when it was.

[J.]

Perhaps the Dems could go with a younger Biden. Hunter certainly has an interesting enough resume.
https://youtube.com/shorts/NaQsTzam06...

[Nik]

Chelsea Clinton and Malia Obama sound like potent candidates too