Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions? Showing 1,301-1,350 of 1,997

[Graeme]

Just a feeling, Scout.

The, "I've got a bad feeling about this."

Perhaps I'm just being paranoid.

[Papaphilly]

No matter who wins this election, it is going to be a rough 4 years. It is 2028 that things will calm down. New blood.

[Graeme]

Looks like minimal impact on Biden vs Trump from the conviction.

(That's my 2nd prediction busted...)

https://x.com/socalpopulist/status/17...

That said, Trumps raking in the money for his campaign.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsle...

Trump claims close to $400M since the verdict.

[Kiri]

Graeme,

I think the fallout from the conviction will become clearer in the coming weeks. For those not in the country the majority of citizens don't pay a great deal of attention to the political races until late summer / early fall and even at that many don't bother until Fall itself.

That said.. this has gotten attention from much of the populace. How it will pan out is another question.

What I'm hearing on the ground is not good for Trump, people (unless they are hardcore MAGA) do not like this. Adding in the ramifications of a covicted felon handling things, possibly from jail, or not, it opens a lot of issues, problems, and security issues. (Not that he wasn't already a security disaster walking from his last term.)

The fact he's already making back room deals with Big Oil/Big etc., the fundraising in NCal is from foreign born (and probably non-citizens I haven't checked on their citizenship) venture capitalists (the news I saw mis-characterized them as Silicon Valley m&s) but SoCal is likely the usual Orange County types, and apparently now dealing/calling on Russia (do not get me started on that regarding him) about the detained Americans and their release.. he is continuing his activities and apparently expects the American people to just go along with this insanity. I think he will find there is a lot of opposition - despite his lackey's in congress. (all of this is just from the general news in the past 4 days)

~ K

pardon the flying post.. busy weekend and I've only got minutes to get all my GR stuff done today.

p.s. don't go chicken littling your finances.. it's a bad thing. Your financial advisor will guide you better.

[[deleted user]]

Americans, note how Kiri and Ian are now synchronising their posts, across the threads, in an attempt to prop up the ailing wretch Biden, and undermine President Donald J Trump.

While Ian is a good, intelligent man, whom I respect and who calls some things correctly, there can be no doubt that he disrespects the US and hates freedom. There is also no doubt that he gets the really big calls, like the response to covid, wrong. Long-standing group members, you have seen me prove this with your own eyes.

Kiri's post should be a wake up call to you. There's no room for complacency. You need to get out and spread the truth amongst your friends, work colleagues and acquaintances because many hardworking Americans don't have time to analyse issues - they're completely reliant on the MSM, so don't get to see what's really happening.

They don't realise that a vote for Biden actually means 4 years of Harris or Newsom. The former would begin talks with Putin and Xi by asking them their pronouns, while the latter spreads homelessness, misery and tyranny wherever he goes.

They will destroy America.

Fortunately for this debate - and getting at the truth - Kiri revealed her true intentions at the end of her post. By using the phrase 'don't go chicken littling your finances', she is in fact trying to goad you into taking on debt and further endangering the American economy. She's doing this for one reason, and one reason only...to try and prop up the failed Biden regime.

Allow me to respectfully remind you that killing your own dreams to prop up tyrants is not the American way.

[Nik]

So early in the race, but already so much fun 😎

[Ian]

Beau wrote: "Americans, note how Kiri and Ian are now synchronising their posts, across the threads, in an attempt to prop up the ailing wretch Biden, and undermine President Donald J Trump.

While Ian is a goo..."

Beau, under no circumstances am i trying to prop up Biden, alth0ough I think in fairness he is not as bad as some are painting him. My big probolem with Biden is his age, and I doubt he can last as a useful President for another 4 years. I also agree there is much that Biden has done, and more importanlty has not done, that has not helped America.

But if the Time magazine article gives a fair account of how Trump is thinking now, I think a second term of Trump will be very unlike the first term. In the interview, Trump criticized himself for being too nice in that term and he threatens not to make that mistake again.

My view is the US really needs two different candidates.

[[deleted user]]

Ian, you've been hoodwinked.

Here is the owner of Time magazine:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_...

Google Marc Benioff. He's an ultra-progressive tech nerd and Biden supporting extremist. His publication can't be relied upon to accurately report President Trump's message of peace, renewal and economic property.

[J.]

Kiri,

Going by your public profile on Goodreads, your "on the ground" conversations are happening in Sonoma County, California. You are in a bedroom community for San Francisco. In the last election, almost 75% of that county voted Democrat. Your neighbors are MSNBC's core demographic. So, I think it's fair to say that what you're hearing may be strongly biased.

For comparison, I live in a NC county which is very red. The county to our north is blue. My employer is just south of the county line, so among my coworkers there is about a 50/50 mix. In 2020, there was a strongly anti-Trump contingent amongst us. That is gone. Those people are now in the "pinch my nose" and vote ____ camp, with around an even split on which _____.

Uncle Joe has only himself to thank for that change. It was his policies that resurrected the ghost which the DNC most fears.
https://youtu.be/rU6PWT1rVUk?si=fmaye...

I don't know if Trump will win. But Biden is losing.

[Ian]

Beau wrote: "Ian, you've been hoodwinked.

Here is the owner of Time magazine:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_...

Google Marc Benioff. He's an ultra-progressive tech nerd and Biden supporting extre..."

That is a good response, Beau, but as far as I know, Trump has not negated that he said those things. But then again, from where I am he might have and I wouldn't know.

[Graeme]

Kiri wrote: "Graeme,

I think the fallout from the conviction will become clearer in the coming weeks. For those not in the country the majority of citizens don't pay a great deal of attention to the political..."

My perspective is that the US establishment (along with the rest of western civilization, including Australia) occurs within a governing framework of neofascist (globalist) monopoly capitalism.

Billionaire co-option of the organs of the state while not 100% complete is pervasive across key economic sectors with the covid pandemic response providing the most glaring examples of corporate interests shaping policy and goverment response.

I see Trump, flawed as he is, and his pro-mRNA-vaccination stance is something I cannot agree with, as more likely to push back against the neofascist framework, than Biden's handlers* who are actively pursuing neofascist corporate-state agendas.

*Biden's handlers: Biden is clearly suffering from dementia which is only going to get worse. He should have retired some time ago for this medical reason. The fact he hasn't implies he remains useful for whomever is pulling his strings. His handlers represent the true rulers of the US, and these people will be at the top of western civilization.

Sometimes, all we have to work with is the interpretation of shadows on a wall. This is my interpretation. Make of it what you will.

[J.]

More on the historic Mexican election:

Bullets before ballots: Dozens of Mexican candidates have been killed as cartels seek more control
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/...

Great... Now HRC is thinking, "What's a few more on the pile?"

[J.J.]

J. wrote: "They probably can't get away with replacing a black woman with a white man on the Dem ticket.

In theory, they could get Biden to bow out and release his delegates. That way they could tell Kamala ..."

He won't replace Kamala because that sends a bad message to the African American voters when he's already losing some of their support to Trump.

And Democrats have an AUG 7 deadline to certify their nominee if they want to be on the ballot in Ohio. With the convention 12 days after the deadline, they moved the actual nomination up so he could be certified by that deadline. If they plan to replace Biden, they'll have to do it well before the convention or they won't be on the ballot in Ohio.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dnc-bide...

[Ian]

Not sure where to put this but we are about to have another election to discuss. Macron has dissolved the French Parliament in response to Marine le Pen's significant advance in the European parliamentary elections. There is a chance that Marine could be the next French PM

Apparently Germany also went to a significant right wing advance

[J.]

Ian wrote: "Not sure where to put this but we are about to have another election to discuss. Macron has dissolved the French Parliament in response to Marine le Pen's significant advance in the European parliamentary elections. There is a chance that Marine could be the next French PM"

Macron calls snap parliamentary election after crushing loss to far-right in European election poll
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/09/europe...

He's dissolving the government because an elections for members of the EU parliament from France wasn't going his way.

First, congrats to the UK for giving that sort of thing a miss. Your politicians have only British reasons for ending themselves.

Second, this is why the USA has regularly scheduled elections instead of leaving it to the politicians to decide when we vote.

[[deleted user]]

My understanding is that even if the National Rally were to win the parliamentary elections, it would still leave Micron as president but he would have no control over domestic affairs. He would be a bit of a lame duck, so I'm guessing he might then resign, leaving the President of the French Senate as a sort of nominal president. Then again, he might fight on.

As far as I'm aware, Marine Le Pen could not become president until 2027, which is when the next presidential elections will be held.

Not sure if a National Rally win would put France's system of government into unchartered waters, but they would inevitably be choppy waters.

J, fixed term parliaments might suit some systems but not all. Depends on the rest of the constitution, be it codified or uncodified (like ours).

[[deleted user]]

JJ, what is your reading of this? That Biden and Harris are bankers to run? Would the Deep State actually sanction a President Harris once Biden inevitably pops his clogs or are they somehow going to prevent Trump from running (possibly living) to open up a new scenario?

And is it possible that this new scenario could see Haley emerge as the new (last minute) Republican nominee?

[[deleted user]]

And then POTUS.

[Ian]

Beau, as I understand it, unless the Constitution is torn up, If Biden were President and pops it then Harris is POTUS. No choice. If the alleged Deep State refuses to comply with legitimate requirements, then either you have a coup in action, or they end up fired or in jail.

My guess is they all would accept Harris. Maybe not willingly, but then they would try to manoeuvre her. Then we would find out what she is made of.

My personal view is that so far I don't know how she would go. The fact she does very little now means nothing because she can't oppose Biden, and I am not sure she ever knows what Biden himself wants, because I am not sure Biden knows either.

[J.]

Steve Forbes weighed in on Biden bowing out.
https://youtu.be/7qx_U0bfBpg?si=0egoL...-

I disagree with Mr. Forbes short of an infarction, I don't foresee any crisis which would make Uncle Joe quit. He has clung to power through every other crisis he caused.

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "Beau, as I understand it, unless the Constitution is torn up, If Biden were President and pops it then Harris is POTUS. No choice. If the alleged Deep State refuses to comply with legitimate requir..."

It is more than just that scenario. If Joe gets to the convention and then bows out after becoming the nominee, Kamala automatically becomes the candidate. She then will pick a running mate and that is where the strategy unfolds.

[Ian]

That's ugly. What happens if Joe doesn't even turn up at the convention? So far nobody else seems to have made a play? Do they simply pick someone, like HRC?

[Papaphilly]

If Joe quits or dies right now, I believe his delegates are released to vote as they see fit. at that point it becomes a brokered convention and deals get cut.

[J.]

A brokered Democratic Convention in Chicago...

Deja vu.

[Kiri]

Ian wrote: "That's ugly. What happens if Joe doesn't even turn up at the convention? So far nobody else seems to have made a play? Do they simply pick someone, like HRC?"

No. Other candidates would be presented, usually by the state delegates and voted on from there. It could be a contested/brokered convention but atm it is highly doubtful it would be. It's fairly straight forward.

And HRC is not even running for anything. She said she's done, and there is no reason to think differently. Also Newsom has said he will not run this term for president. Considering things here in CA it wouldn't gain him anything to jump ship.

This is the DNC's rules and etc for the Convention and nominating process.
https://democrats.org/2024-delegate-s...

[Kiri]

Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: It is more than just that scenario. If Joe gets to the convention and then bows out after becoming the nominee, Kamala automatically becomes the candidate. She then will pick a running mate and that is where the strategy unfolds."

If Biden is not going to actually run, he has to declare before or at the very outset of the convention. He can't accept and then not run. The provisions do not allow for it. If he were to die, then another convention would have to be held - post haste - to select another candidate.

Harris doesn't automatically become the candidate. There are no provisions or rules for that.

if another convention were held Harris could present as a candidate - if she chose and had enough support from the delegates.

[Kiri]

Graeme wrote: My perspective is that the US establishment (along with the rest of western civilization, including Australia) occurs within a governing framework of neofascist (globalist) monopoly capitalism. …. I see Trump, flawed as he is, and his pro-mRNA-vaccination stance is something I cannot agree with, as more likely to push back against the neofascist framework, than Biden's handlers* who are actively pursuing neofascist corporate-state agendas.

Trump is not pro vaccine anything.. He courts the anti-vax and etc crowd.
Also Biden, and the Dems are not neofascist or fascist - I think you have your people mixed up there. Trump is pro-fascist (neo or not)

Biden is clearly suffering from dementia
Where is your evidence of this? Last I heard he’d been given a clean bill of health, by actual qualified doctors. I admit he is no spring chicken (and I am not thrilled with that personally), but he is at least coherent, much more than can be said of Trump whose latest word salad (from his weekend rally) makes my head hurt from the cognitive disconnect.

[Kiri]

Beau wrote: "Ian, you've been hoodwinked. Here is the owner of Time magazine: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_... Google Marc Benioff. He's an ultra-progressive tech nerd and Biden supporting extre..."

Minor Correction - Meridith Corp owns the Time Family of Magazines. Benihoff owns it, but it isn't private ownership iirc. It's under a BOD who manage its investments. I find it HIGHLY doubtful Benihoff is calling up Time Magazine and telling them what to write/print.

[Kiri]

J. wrote: "Kiri,

Going by your public profile on Goodreads, your "on the ground" conversations are happening in Sonoma County, California. You are in a bedroom community for San Francisco."

Santa Rosa isn't a bedroom comunity for SF, it's too far out. Many do commute (for thumbnail it takes 2-3+ hours in the morning due to congestion to reach SF). I don't live in Santa Rosa anymore, although I do live much closer to SF (I'm in Marin these days) now thanwhen I moved out of the city. I just haven't changed my GR profile.

That said I travel, and I'm not from CA. My "on the ground" conversations are happening in several places these days. So when I make that comment, it isn't from a vaccum.

I'm aware of the concept of this area being deeply blue, and there is definately that aspect.. however the Right is very well and enthusiastically represented all over the Bay Area. Also this past weekend I passed neighbors flying trump flags and with signs everywhere.

I can't say who will win, or lose, but the polls I recently saw (CBS News) show Biden pulling ahead. That said I don't think these polls are of much help in the long run, I do not think they poll enough people across the political spectrums. A proper poll, closer to the election, after a few debates, will be much more indicative.

okk.. scolling backwards you guys are quite prolific.. and I"m running out of time today...

[J.]

Kiri,

I can sum up the value of most polls with a couple simple questions.

When the pollsters call your house, do you take the time to answer all of their questions?

What kind of person do you think does?

[Kiri]

Beau wrote: "Americans, note how Kiri and Ian are now synchronising their posts, across the threads, in an attempt to prop up the ailing wretch Biden, and undermine President Donald J Trump."

Dude.. please tell me what you're smoking! IT has to be good to draw these conclusions. =) (actually nm I don't smoke.. it won't do me any good) Also I guess I struck a nerve with my offhand comments.. *stares*

I only know Ian through this forum, and while I have several friends in NZ, none of them are Ian. (none are named Ian either, my Ian's are in England and Scotland). Ian I'm sure you're lovely, but I don't know you.. nor are we coordinating (unless I missed that super sekkrit whatever on the platform I never installed??) Hopefully Beau can understand this.

I'm also an American. Do not forget that again.

"They don't realisze that a vote for Biden actually means 4 years of Harris or Newsom."
It doesn't mean that at all.. please see one of my previous posts today.

Putin and Xi by asking them their pronouns, while the latter spreads homelessness, misery and tyranny wherever he goes.
I think you mean Trump, he's already started his Putin shenanigans.

'don't go chicken littling your finances'
I'm not propping up anything. Commenting that taking unsolicited financial advice is probably not a good idea is not manipulating anyone. I'm at a loss as to how to respond to this silliness.

[Kiri]

Has anyone here, other than myself, read Project 2025 from the GOP?

[Kiri]

Ian wrote: "Beau, as I understand it, unless the Constitution is torn up, If Biden were President and pops it then Harris is POTUS. No choice. If the alleged Deep State refuses to comply with legitimate requir..."

This scenario is already laid out in detail. The Deep State (if it exists) has nothing to say about it.

If POTUS passes, then the VP takes office.
if the VP cannot (for whatever reason) it then moves to the Speaker of the House. From there it moves down through the designated individuals until someone can take office. There is a list of who that is in order on the US government or white house website. in a media note, as a friend just reminded me, the tv series Designated Survivor is based on this concept.

To date it has not ever gone further than the VP for replacing a preisdent for the remainder of a term. There have been small windows where the speaker might assume power (a few hours or so) but nothing longer than that as I recall.. and I haven't looked it up today so this is from memory.

now excuse me while i strangle auto correct.. *tired of having to edit after paste/post a reply*

[Kiri]

J. wrote: "Kiri, I can sum up the value of most polls with a couple simple questions.
When the pollsters call your house, do you take the time to answer all of their questions?
What kind of person do you think does? "

Good points. =) and I agree.

[Ian]

For what it is worth, here, polls are only moderately accurate when the issue is so obvious even Blind Freddy can see it.

As for J's comment, how many who answer polls do so honestly? Many people, when asked who they will vote for, simply either trot out who they have always voted for, or even worse, someone simply to get rid of the pollster

[Ian]

Regarding where Kiri lives. that is irrelevant. It is true that there are some regions where you are more likely to find one party rather than the other, but if we are discussing "likely outcomes" one view is as good as another, and Kiri's view is as good as anyone else's, at least in my opinion.

[J.J.]

Kiri wrote: "J. wrote: "Kiri,

I recently saw (CBS News) show Biden pulling ahead.."

Latest CBS/YouGov poll has Trump up 1%
Sample seems fairly balanced. I would criticize it for lumping the 3rd party candidates into the generic "someone else/3rd party" instead of breaking them out like some of the other polls, but at least the respondents had the option.

https://www.scribd.com/document/74056...

[J.J.]

Kiri wrote: "Ian wrote: "Beau, as I understand it, unless the Constitution is torn up, If Biden were President and pops it then Harris is POTUS. No choice. If the alleged Deep State refuses to comply with legit..."

Until the 25th Amendment was ratified, the Vice Presidency remained vacant until the next election if the VP ascended to the Presidency or died in office. For a good chunk of our history, the Speaker of the House was only one step away from the Presidency instead of two.

[Graeme]

Kiri wrote: "Trump is not pro vaccine anything.. He courts the anti-vax and etc crowd...."

I (possibly) stand corrected.

[1] During the 2024 SOTU he boasted about operation warp speed and took credit for the covid vaccines.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...

[2] But, according to Politico, he's backing off vaccines.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06...

Let's see if point [2] firms up, but up until recently he was delighted to claim credit for operation 'Warp Speed,' and the early delivery of the covid vaccines.

[Graeme]

Kiri wrote: "Also Biden, and the Dems are not neofascist or fascist - I think you have your people mixed up there. Trump is pro-fascist (neo or not)..."

Read this and come back: https://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/...

The labels are no longer applicable.

[J.J.]

Graeme wrote: "Kiri wrote: "Trump is not pro vaccine anything.. He courts the anti-vax and etc crowd...."

I (possibly) stand corrected.

[1] During the 2024 SOTU he boasted about operation warp speed and took cr..."

His stance is similar to RFK Jr.'s. He rushed to get the vaccine into production, encouraged people to get it, but believes it should be personal choice - the mandates forcing people to take it is where the line is drawn.

[Nik]

Kiri wrote: "....Dude.. please tell me what you're smoking!..."

Although most posts are serious, maybe sometimes slightly overplayed for the impact, not all of them are :)

[J.]

Ian wrote: "Regarding where Kiri lives. that is irrelevant. It is true that there are some regions where you are more likely to find one party rather than the other, but if we are discussing "likely outcomes" one view is as good as another, and Kiri's view is as good as anyone else's, at least in my opinion."

I was addressing the data set implied by what Kiri claimed to be hearing in public. Identifying bias in a set is a normal part of any statistical analysis.

[[deleted user]]

Interesting posts, Kiri. Once again, great to have a range of views on this thread. You have a GSOH too - well, good for a progressive ;)

Considering Biden's health, Trump's legal issues and both men's age, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they will make it to polling day. Newsom might have discounted running, but politicians' pronouncements change from one week to the next. Many bookmakers actually make him 3rd favourite to become your next president, so (maybe) watch this space.

Btw, I don't smoke weed. Seeing what's happened to California under the Prince of Darkness's governorship has put me off it :)

2 questions for you...

1. You said you're concerned about Biden's age. Who would be your ideal DNC candidate, if (for whatever reason) he doesn't run?

2. What is your opinion of RFK Jr?

[Ian]

J. wrote: "Ian wrote: "Regarding where Kiri lives. that is irrelevant. It is true that there are some regions where you are more likely to find one party rather than the other, but if we are discussing "likel..."

Understood, but I don't think any opinion here qualifies as a data set

[J.]

Kiri wrote: "What I'm hearing on the ground is not good for Trump, people (unless they are hardcore MAGA) do not like this. Adding in the ramifications of a covicted felon handling things, possibly from jail, or not, it opens a lot of issues, problems, and security issues. (Not that he wasn't already a security disaster walking from his last term.)

Ian,

Kiri didn't put it forward as her own opinion. She said it was the opinion of those to whom she was listening. Therefore, a set.

[Ian]

For most people, a subset of approximately ten people. To form a set, first we must announce the rule that defines set membership. Kiri never claimed to have found a rule, and the only rule I can see is they were her acquaintances.

You may very well be able to conclude that from the rule that the subset were Kiri's acquaintances, many of her acquaintances were dems, but I think to go any further is unfair.

[Papaphilly]

J. wrote: "A brokered Democratic Convention in Chicago...

Deja vu."

I was a kid in 1968 and remember the riots.

[J.]

Ian wrote: "For most people, a subset of approximately ten people"

The size and validity of a set is for the one defining the set to prove.

Kiri,

Without getting personal, how does the sphere of people you cited break down in size?

[Papaphilly]

Kiri wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Ian wrote: It is more than just that scenario. If Joe gets to the convention and then bows out after becoming the nominee, Kamala automatically becomes the candidate. She then wi..."

No,

Biden can accept and then bow out. This is the history of 1972 and Tom Eagleton (go look him up). There could be but will not be a quick convention due to time constraints, it will be between the party bosses (history of 1972). If he dies prior or quits prior to the convention, it goes to the convention and will be brokered. This is the history of 1968 J wrote about with Lyndon Johnson quitting in March prior to the Democratic Convention. Once the convention happens and they accept, Harris will be the presumptive nominee once again due to time constraints if Biden dies or bows out.

Now this is all conjecture because Biden is not bowing out. It would be an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats. Dying is a possibility because he is 81.

Regardless of the rules, there are realities involved and party bosses cannot allow infighting with time running.