World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?
I hope the active US group members' confidence in Trump isn't misplaced. I'm not so sure I share their confidence. The Deep State aren't going to take Trump's return to the White House lying down, you know.
Deep State aside, for me, the VP pick is key to Trump's success. Although I oppose what seems to now be called 'affirmative action', I think it makes a lot of sense to appoint a non white or female running mate to potentially broaden Trump's appeal.
I'm not on about a diversity hire just for the sake of it, like Kamala, who is completely out of her depth, I'm on about someone of quality.
Tim Scott strikes me as an intelligent, reasonable man. How about him?
As far as the women go, surely it's got to be Tulsi? She even has cross party appeal. Come on, it's a no brainer!
If he picks one of the young, unhinged ultra-right-wing women, like the one who shot the puppy, he's making a big mistake. Appointing someone who looks like him and speaks the same confrontational language would be a mistake too.
Papaphilly, if you call RFK Jr a nut job again, I'm going to withdraw my offer to become your new neighbour.
Deep State aside, for me, the VP pick is key to Trump's success. Although I oppose what seems to now be called 'affirmative action', I think it makes a lot of sense to appoint a non white or female running mate to potentially broaden Trump's appeal.
I'm not on about a diversity hire just for the sake of it, like Kamala, who is completely out of her depth, I'm on about someone of quality.
Tim Scott strikes me as an intelligent, reasonable man. How about him?
As far as the women go, surely it's got to be Tulsi? She even has cross party appeal. Come on, it's a no brainer!
If he picks one of the young, unhinged ultra-right-wing women, like the one who shot the puppy, he's making a big mistake. Appointing someone who looks like him and speaks the same confrontational language would be a mistake too.
Papaphilly, if you call RFK Jr a nut job again, I'm going to withdraw my offer to become your new neighbour.
I think Trump's problem with a running mate is, at least in view of the recent Time magazine interview with him, the running mate has to be completely on Trump's agenda. I don't think Tulsi would accept, in the unlikely event Trump offered, because if Trump goes off-beam, Tulsi's career is over. The real tragedy behind this is that Biden did not want Tulsi. She could have sorted out much of the erroneous stuff that has led Biden into trouble. From what little I can make out, because I heard almost nothing about her here, Kamala has not been an asset.
Noem forgot the three rules.1.) Shoot
2.) Shovel
3.) SHUT UP!
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem continues to defend shooting her family's dog
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024...
Beau wrote: "Papaphilly, if you call RFK Jr a nut job again, I'm going to withdraw my offer to become your new neighbour., ..."What!!!! And leave the haunted house next door empty?
Do yourself a favor when you have time. Go look him up and read what he has said over the years. It is a great read, but he is pretty unhinged. Notice I did not say nutjob?
J. wrote: "Noem forgot the three rules.1.) Shoot
2.) Shovel
3.) SHUT UP!
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem continues to defend shooting her family's dog
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024......"
Part of the problem is that in her part of the world, this is normal behavior when a work dog goes bad killing livestock. It has pretty much finished her for now.
Beau wrote: "Tim Scott strikes me as an intelligent, reasonable man. How about him?As far as the women go, surely it's got to be Tulsi? She even has cross party appeal. Come on, it's a no brainer!, ..."
Tim Scott would be a great pick, but I doubt Scott takes the job if offered. He has his own ambitions to be president and this will not help him.
Tulsi would be a an interesting pick for your reasons, but she left the Democrats with a middle finger and I do not think she carries any weight for Trump. She also has a religious background problem with her version being called a cult fair or not.
I do not think the pick is going to help him, but it can hurt him. I expect an adult to be picked. I am not seeing a wing nut or a real divisive pick.
Papaphilly wrote: "Part of the problem is that in her part of the world, this is normal behavior when a work dog goes bad killing livestock. It has pretty much finished her for now."I don't think that her putting down the dog was a problem. I've had to put down dogs and cats over the years.
The problem is that she felt a need to brag about it in her memoir. Obviously, the bleeding hearts were going to have a fit. Worse still, she was trying to virtue signal to rural Americans by boasting how she did a sad chore that all of us have had to do. The rest of us do it and move on. She had to ensure that her version has an ISBN.
Great post about the potential VPs, Papaphilly. Invaluable info and logical conclusions from a man on the ground - better than what's in the MSM.
Haunted house, you say? Think I might take a look at North Carolina or Georgia instead ;)
Haunted house, you say? Think I might take a look at North Carolina or Georgia instead ;)
Btw, yesterday tea time I watched some of the French Open tennis on TV. John McEnroe was a pundit. I know he was born in Germany but he was raised (and I think still lives) in New York.
When I was listening to him speak, I thought of Papaphilly. Lol. The power of Goodreads.
When I was listening to him speak, I thought of Papaphilly. Lol. The power of Goodreads.
Beau, if you're scared of ghosts, avoid the South or grow a spine.Our bloodiest war was our Civil War. We inflicted one and a half million casualties upon ourselves. Around three quarters of a million of those were fatalities. Our single bloodiest day was Antietam with c. 23,000 casualties in 12 hours. Almost all of that happened in the South. If you add in 250 years of slavery, there isn't a place in the South which is more than a few miles from horror.
I know the 2024 election in the title is expected to be the US one, but in the meantime we have snap election in the UK, with a six week campaign time. Maybe those in the UK can help here but the thing that has surprised me here is an almost total silence, at least in our news. About 1/6 of campaigning time has expired, and heading towards 1/5, What is going on???
Ian, in answer to your question, and before the Trump debate begins, the reason there is silence about the UK GE is because it's irrelevant.
It is a choice between the worst government of all time, the worst opposition of all time and the worst 3rd party of all time, all of whom believe in the same thing - that woke, globalist sh**e will somehow transform a country in obvious terminal decline.
The MSM might be getting excited about it but nobody else is.
I've just been out for a few beers with friends. Someone raised the issue of the GE, everybody laughed at the pathetic state of the parties, and then we concentrated on discussing the footy and where we'd emigrate to if we were younger instead. I mooted Hungary and Serbia. Papaphilly and J have put me off the US :)
Btw, J, although I've long been aware of the basics of the American Civil War, it's only in recent years that I've become aware of the death till. Shocking. A very bloody war indeed.
It is a choice between the worst government of all time, the worst opposition of all time and the worst 3rd party of all time, all of whom believe in the same thing - that woke, globalist sh**e will somehow transform a country in obvious terminal decline.
The MSM might be getting excited about it but nobody else is.
I've just been out for a few beers with friends. Someone raised the issue of the GE, everybody laughed at the pathetic state of the parties, and then we concentrated on discussing the footy and where we'd emigrate to if we were younger instead. I mooted Hungary and Serbia. Papaphilly and J have put me off the US :)
Btw, J, although I've long been aware of the basics of the American Civil War, it's only in recent years that I've become aware of the death till. Shocking. A very bloody war indeed.
The wildest thing I've seen out of the UK election is this.Conservatives want to bring back compulsory national service
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd...
I honestly think Sunak pulled that 12 month service period out of his a**. It might be enough time to train Russian conscripts who are only expected to charge or get shot for desertion. But modern Western militaries take that long just to get recruits up to speed. For example, a US Army recruit starts with 10 weeks of Boot. That's over two out of twelve months gone just to get them to wear their uniforms correctly. After that, they have tech school. Depending on their assigned specialties, that's 4 to 52 weeks. Best case scenario, 14 weeks of training only leaves 38 weeks for unit assignment and integration.
For comparison, compulsory military service in Israel is 32 months. Short compulsory military service in Switzerland requires 21 weeks of training for basic infantry, after which they are mustered into the ready reserve for a decade with mandatory training during that time.
So, Trump was found guilty on all counts.I expect him to surge in the polls.
Money for his campaign is pouring in.
The Dems are celebrating, oblivious to the ramifications of what they've done.Everyone else is waiting for the appeals.
I am not so sure Trump will appeal if the judge is kind and does not imprison him but, because of his age, simply fines him. If he appeals he will have to be in court and the prosecution can drag things out. I don't know what the US system is like, but here an appeal cannot dispute a fact the jury decided on unless new facts are brought to bear or unless there are legal grounds, such as the judge did not manage the case properly, but if the appeal is based on the latter, it becomes a matter of legal argument and appeal judges tend to be cautious about overruling another judge unless the law is reasonably clear.Trump might be better off, if not imprisoned, to get on with campaigning. After all, a failed appeal leads to a revised sentence.
Powerful speech from Tulsi. Great message from RFK Jr too:
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/...
J, the national service thing is a gimmick, designed to appeal to a small group of people who will vote for the fake conservatives anyway. Even if they are elected, it will never be implemented.
Look at the policy in closer detail and you'll see only a single figure percentage would see any military service, and it wouldn't be combat duty. Basically, the kids are expected to volunteer (ie work for free) in a public service capacity - this, the generation priced out of owning a home, never going to enjoy a final salary pension and often working on a zero hours contract for the minimum wage.
In short, it's another complete mickey take. An absolute insult. Two fingers up to British people by politicians who are owned by a corporate elite. Just like Labour, just like Biden, and just like the rest of them.
Incidentally, I believe that our military still undergoes longer training than US equivalents. As far as I'm aware, they can still be regarded as elite. I say 'still' because this is probably being changed in the name of inclusively as we speak.
Back on topic...
COME ON TRUMP! Put those coniving, sneaky little wretches in their place and get back in that White House! The West needs you.
https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/...
J, the national service thing is a gimmick, designed to appeal to a small group of people who will vote for the fake conservatives anyway. Even if they are elected, it will never be implemented.
Look at the policy in closer detail and you'll see only a single figure percentage would see any military service, and it wouldn't be combat duty. Basically, the kids are expected to volunteer (ie work for free) in a public service capacity - this, the generation priced out of owning a home, never going to enjoy a final salary pension and often working on a zero hours contract for the minimum wage.
In short, it's another complete mickey take. An absolute insult. Two fingers up to British people by politicians who are owned by a corporate elite. Just like Labour, just like Biden, and just like the rest of them.
Incidentally, I believe that our military still undergoes longer training than US equivalents. As far as I'm aware, they can still be regarded as elite. I say 'still' because this is probably being changed in the name of inclusively as we speak.
Back on topic...
COME ON TRUMP! Put those coniving, sneaky little wretches in their place and get back in that White House! The West needs you.
I'll admit that my opinion of the British military has been colored of late by your two carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales.
Irrelevant to the thread. It's time to concentrate on more important things, unite and get behind Trump. Further to Graeme's point yesterday:
https://nypost.com/2024/05/31/us-news...
$34.8.m in SMALL DOLLAR donations overnight. The ordinary people of America are standing up for Trump against Biden's crooked, tinpot regime!
https://nypost.com/2024/05/31/us-news...
$34.8.m in SMALL DOLLAR donations overnight. The ordinary people of America are standing up for Trump against Biden's crooked, tinpot regime!
If you look at the picture of Trump on my link (the NY Post front page picture), if you have any common sense and emotional intelligence, you will see the face of a decent, honourable man, who is under pressure, hurt, but still determined.
I've blown hot and cold on Trump over the years but in that face I see someone truly special - a great man, who is trying his best to overcome and defeat a truly wicked and corrupt regime.
The UK, Canada, Australia and parts of Western Europe have already fallen to these evil people, but Donald J Trump is not letting the US go down without a fight. People like him, Orban and Fico are absolute heroes.
I've blown hot and cold on Trump over the years but in that face I see someone truly special - a great man, who is trying his best to overcome and defeat a truly wicked and corrupt regime.
The UK, Canada, Australia and parts of Western Europe have already fallen to these evil people, but Donald J Trump is not letting the US go down without a fight. People like him, Orban and Fico are absolute heroes.
Let Beau vote by mail in from Budapest :)
I'm not ready to leave UK PLC yet, Nik. Family commitments, football and a weakness for nostalgia are keeping me here.
And if the time eventually comes to go, La France is my spiritual homeland, not Hungary. When the Micron muppet is eventually replaced, then could be the time to take that leap of faith 🇫🇷
And if the time eventually comes to go, La France is my spiritual homeland, not Hungary. When the Micron muppet is eventually replaced, then could be the time to take that leap of faith 🇫🇷
I hope then they’ll let you mail in from nostalgia 🥃
By tradition, foreigners, corpses, and mythological beings are only allowed to vote Democrat.
That’s kinda unfortunate as we have a foreigner and a mythological being here rooting for Rep
I know. I know. But that's why the Dems are so big on mail in voting. So them's the breaks.
Beau wrote: "In short, it's another complete mickey take. An absolute insult. Two fingers up to British people by politicians who are owned by a corporate elite. Just like Labour, just like Biden, and just like the rest of them...."As I mentioned on another thread: our governing economic/political framework is neofascist (globalist) monopoly capitalism where corporate co-option of the organs of the state are 'business as usual,' resulting in outcomes favourable for the dominant owners and their favoured corporate cartels.
Cheap, disenfranchised, powerless labour forces are currently in vogue.
J. wrote: "The wildest thing I've seen out of the UK election is this.Conservatives want to bring back compulsory national service
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd...
I honestly think Sunak pull..."
The Black vote will be interesting to watch. African Americans are already souring on Biden because he's done nothing to help their communities. They're suffering in the same economy everyone else is. And with the migrants flooding into their cities, they're watching resources disappear from their communities and go to that crisis. And there is the sentiment that justice system has always been stacked against them, with the lawfare against Trump, many are seeing him as one of them in that sense. I think it reminds many of them that the 90s crime bill targeting African Americans was Biden's baby. It will be interesting to see if this conviction moves a significant chunk of the African American vote into Trump's column. If that happens, Biden has no chance to win.
It will also be interesting to see the polls that come out once this is figured into the polling. As of right now, it looks like Trump has GA, AZ, PA, MI, WI, and NV. A poll 2 days ago has him tied in VA, a state everyone thought has shifted into safe blue territory. There isn't a lot of polling available, but indications are that he has a chance at flipping the two statewide electors in Maine and the 2nd district elector in Nebraska. And Minnesota is close enough that it is actually a toss-up state right now, but there isn't a lot of polling out of all three, so it's tough to say for certain. These might be longshots, but they are close enough that if Trump puts the effort into them, NJ, IL, and NM could give the Democrats a scare. With the fundraising boost the conviction has already given Trump, it could be a sign that it drives Trump's poll numbers instead. I think however the election turns out in November, there will be a few surprises in the results.
Ian wrote: "I am not so sure Trump will appeal if the judge is kind and does not imprison him but, because of his age, simply fines him. If he appeals he will have to be in court and the prosecution can drag t..."He is going to appeal. This is not a question. I expect this to be overturned.
Papaphilly wrote: "He is going to appeal. This is not a question. I expect this to be overturned...."Indeed, and I suspect the strategists behind this operation expect that to happen, too. Hence, they must expect to extract value from the 'convicted felon,' narrative between now and the election.
I presume their goal is to drive down Trump's popularity, however, like many here and elsewhere, I think this will backfire.
Sentencing is set for early July (I think) allowing time for fresh polls to inform the sentence given.
Scenarios:
[1] Trump tanks in the polls. "It's working. Stay on target." Minimal sentencing focused on a fine.
[2] Trump still leads, but by a small amount. "It hasn't worked. We need to double down..." House arrest...
[3] Trump zooms up by 5%+, some previously safe blue states look like flipping red. "Disaster! Double Down Bigly!" Trump is sent to prison.
Since the lawfare was and remains a political operation, so the sentencing will be informed by political considerations.
My take for 2nd order effects is that post-sentencing, the greater the sentence. the greater the boost to Trump's popularity.
The Democrat strategists can't seem to imagine that martyring Trump will make him more popular. Hence, they will double-down, and double-down all the way to assassination.
After all, Epstein was 'suicided,' in prison with the guards asleep and the cameras on the fritz. Why not Trump?
Trump campaign says it raised $52.8 million after guilty verdict in fundraising blitzhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-fu...
I think we still need to know where the effects of this will show. If it moves to the swing states in favour of Trump to even a minor degree Biden is gone. But if all the enthusiasm is from committed Trump supporters anyway, then the sentence will change nothing to them. However, there may be a number who do not usually vote who won't want their President to be a convicted felon and they may get out and vote. Enough of them and Trump is dead in the water. Any appeal will not be over before the election.So what does the average American think of a convicted felon as President?
Ian wrote: "I think we still need to know where the effects of this will show. If it moves to the swing states in favour of Trump to even a minor degree Biden is gone. But if all the enthusiasm is from committ..."Looks like independents are flocking to Trump, and even past democrat voters.
I think this event just tanked RFK-Jr's campaign.
J. said, "By tradition, foreigners, corpses, and mythological beings are only allowed to vote Democrat." Thanks for the laugh. I needed it :-)
Graeme suggested that assassination could be in play. I watched Trump's speech in the Bronx and expected at any minute he would be shot. Graeme said, "After all, Epstein was 'suicided,' in prison with the guards asleep and the cameras on the fritz. Why not Trump?" Does anyone think Trump's not in danger?I don't think it would be a surprise to anyone if Trump is assassinated. Yet the guy fights on against everything the Dems throw at him, the underhanded cowards who will do anything to stay in power. They portray Trump as a destroyer of Democracy, but look at the illegitimate means Dems are willing to use because they're so afraid of Trump and want to eliminate him as a candidate. Why are they doing this? Because they know Biden isn't capable of being president; everyone knows this. Their only hope is to eliminate the opposition by any dirty means necessary.
To say the Dems are afraid of Trump is a bit of an overstatement. Of course they want Trump to lose; you could hardly expect them to support Trump. But to say they are underhanded and using illegitimate means because they are afraid of Trump is a step too far. If you are thinking of this conviction, face up to it: Trump was accused of certain crimes and was found guilty by a jury of 12. He was not found guilty by some system. Whether he should have been tried is a matter of opinion, but the prosecution can hardly be accused of wrongful prosecution if the jury agrees on all counts.
Ian wrote: "Trump was accused of certain crimes and was found guilty by a jury of 12. He was not found guilty by some system. Whether he should have been tried is a matter of opinion, but the prosecution can hardly be accused of wrongful prosecution if the jury agrees on all counts. ..."So was Virginia governor Bob Mcdowell. The Supreme Court tossed his conviction because the definitions for the crimes Jack Smith used in the prosecuting documents were so broad, every politician in the country was guilty of those crimes. The jury rules, not only in accordance with the evidence, but according to the definitions of the crimes laid out as well as the judges instructions on how to reach their decision. A jury can deliver a verdict that's wrong, feeling it's right if they were doing as they were told.
Ian wrote: "So what does the average American think of a convicted felon as President? ..."ooh, let me introduce you to Providence mayor Buddy Cianci. Mayor of Providence, Rhode Island in the 1970s and 80s until he plead no contest for beating his wife's lover with a fireplace log. As a convicted felon, he was unable to run for office again until the state constitution was amended to allow him to do so. He ran for the office again and won, serving as mayor for another decade until he was again arrested for operating a pay-for-play scheme. In 2014, he decided to again run for the office. He narrowly lost, but this twice convicted felon still managed to capture 45% of the vote. He was actually on tape accepting a bribe, and 45% of the city voters wanted him back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buddy_C...
J.J. wrote: "Ian wrote: "So what does the average American think of a convicted felon as President? ..."ooh, let me introduce you to Providence mayor Buddy Cianci. Mayor of Providence, Rhode Island in the 197..."
Sounds like... "He may be a criminal, but he's our criminal!"
J.J., that is what the appeal system is for. However, if it goes to the Supreme Court, the situation is murkier because of Trump's appointments.
Ian wrote: "J.J., that is what the appeal system is for. However, if it goes to the Supreme Court, the situation is murkier because of Trump's appointments."It's only going to be murkied by the Democrats and the media. Watch the immunity case they recently heard arguments for. The conservative justices signaled they believe a President holds a certain amount of immunity, but not a complete blanket of immunity. I suspect that's what the final ruling will look like. They will strike a balance, and kick it back to the lower court to decide which side of the balance Smith's charges fall. The "Trump judges" won't give him the victory he wants. Similarly, when the NY case reaches them, they'll look at the facts and make judgement based on the arguments, and not on who appointed them. And if even one liberal judge votes to over turn the conviction, like all three sided with the conservatives last week in a case involving the NRA, then the question of partisanship goes out the window.
I am unclear why presidential immunity is an issue in this case because Trump was not President when the alleged events occurred. (Although following a verdict, I am not sure "alleged" is the correct word.) This was a case of commercial misrepresentation by a private citizen. That he did it because an election was coming should not affect the issue.
Scout wrote: "Graeme suggested that assassination could be in play. I watched Trump's speech in the Bronx and expected at any minute he would be shot. Graeme said, "After all, Epstein was 'suicided,' in prison w..."Aside from the fact it would be wrong, it would be pointless. There are too many others in power at this point. There is no way that 60+ people are going to be taken out simultaneously. Those others are also driving this scenario that we need to combat. This did not happen in the past few years, it's been building for decades - in some ways over a century.
And Scout if you want names.. look to the GOP, the evangelical xtians, some of the Trump family, and Trumps drum beaters.
Ian wrote: "I am unclear why presidential immunity is an issue in this case because Trump was not President when the alleged events occurred. (Although following a verdict, I am not sure "alleged" is the corre..."Ian, the immunity ruling applies to more than one case. One case is on hold pending this decision already. I don't think this case has to worry about it as (and as you mentioned) this began prior to his election, and also that it is a state case. Also this case has completed except for the sentencing.
That said Trump wants to create a new class of laws from which only he would (at the moment) benefit. This is anti-thetical to how our system is set up and opens the way for a tremendous amount of abuse, not just judicial.
Ian wrote: "Can the US afford to be in a holding pattern given the crises in the world, and two contenders for the Presidency who could lead to almost any unforeseeable outcome?I don't think we would be in a holding pattern per se. Either way world events will force movement. The choice for the US will (internationally speaking) be which will be at the helm. That said imo one is better than the other, and in light of recent convictions also preferable. Having a convicted felon will severly hamper diplomatic anything, as many nations (its a long list) will not allow that person to enter their country.. Course he could always attend by Zoom or something. I'm not even going to go into the parole officer ramifications of moving about the nation domestically - and that is if said person isn't incarcerated.
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)The Federalist Papers (other topics)
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)
Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis (other topics)
Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72 (other topics)
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Authors mentioned in this topic
J.D. Vance (other topics)Tulsi Gabbard (other topics)
Smedley D. Butler (other topics)
Robert Iger (other topics)
Larry Elder (other topics)
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Win or lose, Trump's poll numbers will go up. It seems to me, the only thing that Biden's speech will do is alienate voters.