Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions? Showing 901-950 of 1,997

[Nik]

My impression- corona overwhelmed Trump much more than Bidie

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "My impression- corona overwhelmed Trump much more than Bidie"

That and Trump being Trump.

[Papaphilly]

Beau wrote: "Papaphilly, I don't know the intricacies of the American voting system like you do, but when I see a collection of polls like these, I just don't see how Trump isn't going to be the Republican nomi..."

I will not argue with Five Thirty Eight. They are very reputable. Yet, it is polls and that is a snapshot in time. It can change very quickly. The polls are also average polls. The polls I am interested in is the likely voter poll because those people vote.

[[deleted user]]

Thanks for your explanations, J and Papaphilly.

So what does this mean in practice? That the polls relate to people who simply identify as Republicans but the primaries only allow actual registered members of the GOP to vote, and that they might think differently to the party's wider supporter base?

Unless this is the case, I don't see how it's possible for a far less-popular candidate to secure the nomination.

Or is it that success in a primary might give a nominee momentum that might swing voters in other states?

[J.]

First, the rules vary from state to state. Some states limit voting on primary ballots to only registered party voters. Others allow registered independents to vote for either. In states which follow the latter rule, solidly Democratic voters can vote in Republican primaries, and vice versa, so long as they are registered as independents. For example, in my home state of North Carolina the DNC has already declared Uncle Joe the nominee so there's no point in voting in the Dem primary if all you care about is the presidential election. But if those Dem voters are registered as independents on primary day, they can vote in the Republican primary against whomever they like. Do you think they'll vote for Trump?

Yes, the staggered primary election schedule can allow candidates to gain or lose momentum with both voters and donors. Victory breeds victory and donors don't like the smell of defeat.

[Papaphilly]

The primary season is unlike anything else we do. It is theoretically a testing ground for candidates. Biden was an afterthought until he won South Carolina, then everything turned for him and the Democrat coalesced around him. This GOP run can have one of the three remaining candidates win. Trump is right now the likely candidate, but I do think Hailey can pull it off. DeSantis was the front runner and has faded. I do believe there is a substantial set of voters that are not thrilled with Trump and could turn to Hailey. However, she needs a big win. That is why i think South Carolina is her stand, she was Governor there. Florida is next then and that is DeSantis's state.

[[deleted user]]

Thanks again, J and Papaphilly. It's a lot more interesting than I thought. I'll be paying more attention to your election this year than to ours.

[Graeme]

Desantis just dropped out and endorsed Trump. It's now a two-horse race between Trump and Haley.

REF: https://twitter.com/RonDeSantis/statu...

[Papaphilly]

Now it gets interesting.

[[deleted user]]

Ron's departure was probably inevitable. Although I'm sorry to see him go in many ways,, his campaign has been a bit of a damp squib and he doesn't yet appear quite up to the job.

I'm not sure how I feel about Haley. In moments of weakness, I've thought she was a good candidate, and she's unquestionably the only person, apart from RFK Jr, who can unite the US, but that goodie-goodie establishment veneer does grate on me a bit. Still, what do you expect from a Deep State puppet?

One more question for the US guys re the voting mechanism...

While I know that legal challenges are pending, 2 states have said that Trump can't appear on the ballot. Is it possible that if more states follow this, and the legal process to challenge the decision is in some way dragged out, that the GOP's big donors and other movers and shakers get cold feet about backing Trump and switch to Haley?

If so, wouldn't that be a very cute way for the Deep State establishment to 'stop' the Orange Man from running.

[Graeme]

@Beau ... I expect the US Supreme Court will need to adjudicate this topic (who's on the ballot) in the near future.

It should be defintive one way or the other.

[Papaphilly]

One more question for the US guys re the voting mechanism...

While I know that legal challenges are pending, 2 states have said that Trump can't appear on the ballot. Is it possible that if more states follow this, and the legal process to challenge the decision is in some way dragged out, that the GOP's big donors and other movers and shakers get cold feet about backing Trump and switch to Haley?

If so, wouldn't that be a very cute way for the Deep State establishment to 'stop' the Orange Man from running...."

You ask a great question. Trump will be on the ballot. The Supreme Court will rule in his favor. I expect it to be 9-0 or maybe even 8-1. It has to be a slam dunk. I can see concurring opinions condemning Trump's behavior.
First: The theory is flawed the ruling is based upon. One of our basic tenets is innocent until proven guilty. Trump has not been found guilty of anything or even charged.

Yet, it this is not a simple question either. Trump for better or worse brings out the very worst in everyone. this to me is another case. Here is the larger problem nobody is really talking about. What happens if this is allowed to stand? Trump is off a number of ballots and could lose the Republican nomination. He runs as an independent. His ego will ruin the Republicans chances because they will split especially if he is seen as a victim of Democrats maneuvering. It is not lost on anyone that those that removed him are Democrats.

Yet, that is not the real problem either. Here is the real problem, what prevents Republicans from removing any Democrat including Biden saying by not stopping the illegals and actively preventing States from doing so is not aiding an enemy or even suggesting they are people? Tit for tat.

I am not a Trump fan, but I have spent way too much ink defending him because I see the rules are different for him. This should not have happened. I see the court cases is a different light. The Mar a lago case is going to hurt because he had the documents. Yet so does Biden and lots of other politicians on both sides of the political line. If they go after Trump, they had better be prepared to go after Biden too. Now do you see the problem?

Ultimately I see this a a political problem and not a criminal case.

[Graeme]

Well said, Papa.

[[deleted user]]

I agree with everything in your last post, Papaphilly.

I think you're spot on with your assessment of the situation, although hadn't considered Trump running as an independent. That would be like unpinning a grenade in your own trench. Lol.

[Graeme]

If a strong independent wins enough electoral college seats, no contender will reach sufficient seats putting the president selection to congress to decide.

[Papaphilly]

Third party candidates never win. Joe Kennedy will be nothing more than a spoiler, just as other independents over the last 50 years.

Trump's ego will not let him walk away and he would rather burn it all to the ground than allow himself to lose.

[Nik]

Surprised Desantis drops just after the first round even after garnering more votes than Haley.
Going indie wouldn't be the first time for Trumpo, as far as I remember

[J.]

1.) Third party candidates can win. They win state and local offices fairly often. And there are several federal congresspersons and senators who are neither Republicans nor Democrats. The presidential election has mostly gone to major party candidates, but when major parties collapse new blood rushes in. That's why Lincoln got elected as a Republican after the collapse of the Whig party. Currently, the Republican Party is divided between MAGA populists and RINOs. The Democratic Party is divided between progressivists, the Obama rainbow, and the powers that be at the DNC ( https://youtu.be/vqYJRc0TJkQ?si=aygnB... ).

2.) Nobody wants Congress to decide an election. The last time that happened was the end of Reconstruction. That's when the Dems created Jim Crow.

[Graeme]

Bombshell, re the 2020 election.

REF: Twitter: https://twitter.com/America1stLegal/s...

[J.]

Today is the New Hampshire presidential primary. Of course, everyone is focused on the Trump-Haley fight. But there is some fun happening on the Dem side.

https://youtu.be/Vp3ZS-V2MSE?si=jufGY...

[J.]

A bit of levity:

This is the ad which Dean Phillips, Dem candidate for president, has been running in New Hampshire.
https://youtu.be/OW-c-mP0LYk?si=uhKDC...

[Papaphilly]

That is a great campaign ad!

[Graeme]

Papaphilly wrote: "That is a great campaign ad!"

Indeed.

Unfortunately for Phillips, it didn't work and Biden won in a landslide, winning 109% of the counted votes....

Wait, hang on a second, no it was lower ... more in the 70-80% range...

[Graeme]

OK, Trump wins NH, while Haley continues on, happy to spend her donor's money to the last $.

The next race is South Carolina on the 24th of February.

What can I say, a month is a long time in politics...

[Nik]

Nikki should hang in there. What has she's got to lose?

[J.]

Nik wrote: "Nikki should hang in there. What has she's got to lose?"

If she drags into the convention as a joke, 2028.

[Graeme]

I think she's waiting for her opponent to fall over... and win by default.

[J.]

Chair of Arizona Republican party resigns after leak reveals alleged bribe
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...

I do love the liberal outlets who downplay the recorded attempt at bribery. It's obvious they don't like Lake.

[Nik]

Having little excitement about the frontrunners, I'm nevertheless astonished by the issues that are estimated as crucial:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2...
I mean abortion, really? It wouldn't make into the first 100 for me, but I'd appreciate to learn why it matters so much for Americans, even for those who can't possibly have one?

[J.]

More on the Kari Lake story, including audio:
https://youtu.be/2lLr48z053c?si=o7fmN...

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "Having little excitement about the frontrunners, I'm nevertheless astonished by the issues that are estimated as crucial:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign......"

It is one of the true emotional issues with no agreement between the sides. Depending where you stand or what you believe, it is either about control or personal beliefs. Prior to Roe v. Wade, septic abortions was not uncommon. Abortions happened regardless of the law. After Roe, septic abortions disappeared.

I will not argue with a person that truly believes it is evil and immoral. That is their right. However, when one disguises control for moral beliefs or compassion, I part ways fast. I also have no problem with the way it was handled through the courts. That is the process. Democrats who tend to be pro-choice had 50 years to codify it and did not, so this could have been avoided. Yet, Republicans are going to rue the day they won this battle. This is going to be an issue that will only gain strength as time moves on.

So for the control portion. Some states have curtailed abortion to the point it is non-existent. Now these same states are trying to legally prevent women from getting an abortion by travel with threats for prosecution. BTW, these same states arenotones that will provide welfare for the poor or good schools for these extra children.

Generally speaking, Americans see abortion as a necessary evil. It is slowly being codified in State Constitutions with Ohio being the most recent. How did the Republicans react in Ohio once the voters put into their State Constitution? they tried to outlaw abortion and was soundly beaten badly by the Courts. How was their reaction? We did not get our message out clearly. Maybe they should listen to their constituents.

My prediction, Republicans learn to live with abortion.

You wonder why this is a big issue, ask a women who should control their body. Americans are an ornery bunch by nature and do not like being told anything.

Interesting article about abortion.

https://www.guttmacher.org/gpr/2003/0...

For the record, I am pro-choice.

[J.]

In comparison, I think that there needs to be some limits on abortion. While I don't believe that a mass of undifferentiated stem cells is a baby, once the pregnancy reaches the third trimester it is definitely a baby. At some point in between we need to say stop.

[Graeme]

Fractures...

REF: Twitter: https://www.rga.org/republican-govern...

[Nik]

Papaphilly wrote: "....It is one of the true emotional issues with no agreement between the sides...."

Thanks for explaining, Papa. It's purely theoretic for men, elderly women and some others seemingly to a degree to serve a decoy from many real issues, but who am I to argue with ornery people :)

[Papaphilly]

J. wrote: "In comparison, I think that there needs to be some limits on abortion. While I don't believe that a mass of undifferentiated stem cells is a baby, once the pregnancy reaches the third trimester it ..."

I am at viability. Up to that point, not much involved. At viability, the balance shifts for me.

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "....It is one of the true emotional issues with no agreement between the sides...."

Thanks for explaining, Papa. It's purely theoretic for men, elderly women and some others see..."

As I have argued many times, I am about the process of how things get done. I am not happy with the outcome, but the system worked and it was followed. Now as the reality sinks in, we shall see.

[J.]

The Finnish presidential election is under way.
https://youtu.be/UsIFHOMVjEc?si=ND7jA...

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "....It is one of the true emotional issues with no agreement between the sides...."

Thanks for explaining, Papa. It's purely theoretic for men, elderly women and some others see..."

Actually it is not theoretical for men. Yes men do not get pregnant, but there are ramifications.

One, if it is one night stand or a very short term relationship, it can become a life time commitment whether it is wanted or not. that is allot of money and time commitment.

Two: a long term relationship that ended for whatever reason or because of the pregnancy. It can be either wanted by the men and not the women or not wanted by either.

Now here is the rub, women don't want to be told what to do with their body. That is fine. However, a balance of power shift and now men do not have any say?

So, if you want the child and she does not, you have no ability to stop an abortion and if you don't want a child and she does you have no ability to induce one.

[Jim]

I was in the delivery room, with my hand firmly grasped by my wife's hand, each time one of our five children was being delivered. I pride myself that I did not grind my teeth orr utter a sound as my wife began to squeeze my hand harder and harder as the delivery progressed.

Based upon my personal experience, I am convinced that, with very few exceptions, if women and men took turns giving birth, couples would never have more than three children. The woman would have the first baby, the man would have the second baby, the woman would have the third baby, the man would procaim loudly: "That's enough!"

[Nik]

Papaphilly wrote: "...One, if it is one night stand or a very short term relationship, it can become a life time commitment whether it is wanted or not. that is allot of money and time commitment..."

Wonder what pro-lifers say in these situs or flip their beliefs in a moment :)
An agreement btw those involved in these delicate matters is paramount, yet "mistakes" happen and an abortion solves some of them

[Nik]

Jim wrote: "...The woman would would have the first baby, the man would have the second baby, the woman would have the third baby, the man would procaim loudly: "That's enough!" ..."

You are probably right regarding this still theoretical situ :)

[Papaphilly]

Nik wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "...One, if it is one night stand or a very short term relationship, it can become a life time commitment whether it is wanted or not. that is allot of money and time commitment....."

The dirty secret is that abortions never end, they just go somewhere else and that goes for the pro-life too. It is all theoretical until it is not.

[J.]

The main thing that stopped me short of fathering children by a girlfriend who really wanted children was my doubt about our ability to maintain a marriage.

Fear of pain ceased to be a thing for me during the reconstructive surgeries on my hand. In truth, that increase in my pain threshold probably extended a few relationships.

[J.]

The Dems are working hard for the money.

First-of-its-kind campaign fundraiser in the works with Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Biden
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024...

Since Bill Clinton is on board, they can probably get him to save them some money by arranging flights on his friends' airplanes. I understand that at least one of his friends owned an island they might be able to use.

[Nik]

J. wrote: "...Fear of pain ceased to be a thing for me during the reconstructive surgeries on my hand. In truth, that increase in my pain threshold probably extended a few relationships...."

Hope all pains are put far behind you

[J.]

I'll live. I just wish that the politicos would stop making our lives more difficult.

[Nik]

We all do. We pay their salaries. Likely sponsors pay more

[Papaphilly]

J. wrote: "Since Bill Clinton is on board, they can probably get him to save them some money by arranging flights on his friends' airplanes. I understand that at least one of his friends owned an island they might be able to use...."

OUCH!

[Graeme]

Where there is independent media bombshells will be dropped.

I think the interviewee here has just vaporised their career at the White House.

REF: Twitter: O'Keefe: https://twitter.com/JamesOKeefeIII/st...

[[deleted user]]

They've vaporised their career but only by stating the obvious - something that anyone who follows politics already knows. But as that regime is based on lies, it cannot openly admit even those blindingly obvious facts.

2024 is going to be a fascinating year. The candidates as follows:

1. The Deep State ruler they desperately need to run again but might not last that long.
2. The anti-establishment Orange Man, whom they dare not allow to return.
3.The equally anti-establishment outsider RFK Jr, whom they will never allow to govern.

To paraphrase Thunderbirds, anything could happen in the next 10 months...

Assassinations, coups, threats of nuclear war, unprecedented legal irregularities, the lot - don't rule anything out.

And, above all, keep your eye on Haley, the Deep State's REAL fallback if Biden doesn't last the course. After all, what does single digit support amongst your own supporter base count for if you're the 'chosen' one.