World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?
Did you know that our consciousness is a paradox in that the more conscious we are of our own minds, the less we understand them?It's summed up in the Mind-Body Problem. If you "look" inward, at your own mind, you'll experience thoughts, memories, and sensations. But if I use scanners to look into your mind, all I will find is grey matter and elctro-chemical activity. Both are valid. But we have only the vaguest notions of how.
So, how can you be so certain of what can or cannot happen in a printed circuit, when you can't be certain of how you are happening in grey matter and elctro-chemical activity?
Absolutely fascinating conversation, Papaphilly, Graeme and J. One of the best I've read on Goodreads and one that leaves me less certain of my own opinions than I was before.
Papaphilly, your points are very convincing but those on Russia and China read like wishful thinking to me.
Both countries - yes, even Russia, look less vulnerable than the US at the mo, which resembles a rudderless ship, teetering on the brink of mutiny, with (according to your polls) no more than a 20% chance of finding a captain who won't send you into even choppier waters.
Papaphilly, your points are very convincing but those on Russia and China read like wishful thinking to me.
Both countries - yes, even Russia, look less vulnerable than the US at the mo, which resembles a rudderless ship, teetering on the brink of mutiny, with (according to your polls) no more than a 20% chance of finding a captain who won't send you into even choppier waters.
Good book, Mike, and great author. Neither Russia nor China look communist to me (CCP in name only).
How do you see Biden (or the deep state's chosen successor) or Trump uniting the nation, getting a grip on debt, and re engaging countries around the world who would now rather align with BRICS?
The above presidential candidates will just dig the US deeper into the hole it is already digging for itself. A fresh face, with new ideas, is required.
How do you see Biden (or the deep state's chosen successor) or Trump uniting the nation, getting a grip on debt, and re engaging countries around the world who would now rather align with BRICS?
The above presidential candidates will just dig the US deeper into the hole it is already digging for itself. A fresh face, with new ideas, is required.
Beau, be wary of the images of strength projected by the CCP and Russia. They actively censor and censure any and all negative reporting about themselves. With regard to the CCP, what is their real exposure to their own real estate market? What percentage of their naval build up was oilers? What are their technological production limits? How bad is their environmental degradation? What is their current demography and birth rate? What is their per capita productivity? How long until India eats their supper?
As for Russia, why did their strongest European surface fleet just cede naval superiority to a country which doesn't have a navy? Why isn't the T-14 Armata doing a damned thing? Where is their tech manufacturing sector? Why are they having to buy ammo from North Korea and Iran? Why can't they maintain basic Op Sec Comms discipline with their own troops in the field? Why can't they get the Kuznetsov out to sea as a functional carrier? Why did their tanks run out of fuel on the way to Kyiv? It goes on like this
Graeme wrote: "My 2 cents ... Ok, you and I are both fully self-aware entities capable of self-reflection (I'm not a solipsist....). It's entirely possible, and I expect this to happen (and it has already occurred - I think), that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will so closely mimic human conscienceness that it will be indistinguishable from it - despite the lack of actual self-awareness.I.e. Humanity could create at machine that mimics self-awareness that destroys us while not in any way, shape, or form, actually being self aware...."
Long before AI mimicry so close to awareness, we had the ability to kill ourselves in mass numbers. We have to program them to do this act. They do not do it in its own. Maybe the better way is to say they have no malice nor love in them. AI is great at processing, not thinking. They do not think. Give a small child a crayon and they will draw with it. Give an AI a crayon and nothing. They have to be told it is a crayon and what a crayon does.
So while I agree it is possible, I do not agree it is likely.
That video posted yesterday show a robot talking, blinking and making human like movements. They were programmed to do so and it was not on its own. So yes, AI can be very sophisticated, but it is a program.
J. wrote: "Did you know that our consciousness is a paradox in that the more conscious we are of our own minds, the less we understand them?It's summed up in the Mind-Body Problem. If you "look" inward, at ..."
You actually said it better then I did. I cannot prove it one way or the other. Let me try it this way. I will use your example because it is perfect. We can look inward and they cannot. We understand there is an inward and that is the difference. If I put you in front of a mirror, you recognize yourself. I am told an AI can do the same thing. OK let us test it. If I knock you out and put a mask on you and place you in front of a mirror, you will recognize you are looking at you, but do not recognize the new face (mask). You recognize something is wrong. An AI will not recognize itself if it is switched off and then back on with a different mask.
Do you believe in God? Do you think an AI can believe in God?
Descartes said "I think, therefore I am".
AI does not think, it processes.
Mike wrote: "Beau wrote: "Absolutely fascinating conversation, Papaphilly, Graeme and J. One of the best I've read on Goodreads and one that leaves me less certain of my own opinions than I was before.Papaphi..."
Is this your first time through with the book?
Papaphilly,Descartes is a risky citation in this conversation. "Cogito, ergo sum" was his response to the Skeptical question of reality. Basically, Descartes decided that he couldn't prove that he was experiencing reality and not, for example, dreaming. But he could be sure of his own mind experiencing.
The problem with that is Nietzsche's Response. Nietzsche asked what if those thoughts and experiences are all that you are. What if there is no external reality, only a collection of thoughts, memories, experiences, and emotions What if all that made Descartes, Descartes was the thought, "I am Descartes"? Now, what if someone can remove the thought "I am Descartes" and replace it with another thought? Was Descartes ever real?
For now, that is where AI sits, collections of thoughts, memories, experiences, and perhaps even emotions floating in cyberspace. We can alter those collections however we choose, so you deem them mere simulacra. Perhaps, but I am given pause by your benchmark for consciousness. It seems to me that the only undeniable proof of an AI being aware of its own code would be the AI altering its own code. When that happens, all programed safeguards are null and void. We will have already lost.
Amazing discussion about AI, albeit on the wrong thread. Being a pessimist is a smart move where AI is concerned. Better safe than sorry. What's actually being done to safeguard against our being sorry too late?
Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?
P.S. I'll happily shout lunch for any of you international regulars on here if you're ever in Sydney.
From the New York Times:Border Wall-Related Falls Are Increasing in California
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/us...
TL;DR: Because of the Evil Orange Man, more of these poor people are injuring themselves while committing a crime.
J. wrote: "From the New York Times:Border Wall-Related Falls Are Increasing in California
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/us...
TL;DR: Because of..."
Similar numbers of builders fell off non-existent wall I seem to recall - shortage of bricks I think in one Office sketch.
Nik wrote: "We have an exclusive recent debate you'll see nowhere else:https://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/..."
A welcome return...
Interesting opinion piece on why RFK Jr can win the presidential election:
https://www.eurasiareview.com/2911202...
Remarkable stat: despite 2020 election having biggest voter turnout in over a century, 80m eligible voters still didn't vote. That's an awful lot of untapped votes.
https://www.eurasiareview.com/2911202...
Remarkable stat: despite 2020 election having biggest voter turnout in over a century, 80m eligible voters still didn't vote. That's an awful lot of untapped votes.
Mentioned economy - so - reposted from a Twitter commentator."1984 is often cited as a banner year for the US economy -- giving Ronald Reagan a landslide re-election.
In 1984, unemployment was 7%, inflation was 3.8%, and GDP growth was 6.9%.
Today, unemployment is 3.9%, inflation is 3.2%, and GDP last quarter grew at a rate of 5.2%."
Expect those numbers to be highlights if continued into next year. Yes they ignore what inflation has been - see same process in UK as inflation reduces
Wishful thinking, Philip. Biden is toast.
Beau wrote: "Wishful thinking, Philip. Biden is toast."Of course he is and so he should be.
But not because of the numbers. The numbers will never be believed by those who hate him, and yet the numbers are good.
Biden is simply too old and not up to the job.
Adrian, as a man once said, there are 'lies, damned lies and statistics'.
Do you honestly think that the headline inflation rate bears any resemblance to what most people spend their weekly income on?
Or that the unemployment figures include everybody out of and actively seeking work?
Or that the beneficiaries of the GDP growth aren't a smaller group of people than ever before?
You, Philip and Jim are right that Trump is bad news but the guy in charge now is far, far worse, especially when one considers everything else (you know, the important things that can't be disguised by meaningless stats) that has happened under his watch.
Do you honestly think that the headline inflation rate bears any resemblance to what most people spend their weekly income on?
Or that the unemployment figures include everybody out of and actively seeking work?
Or that the beneficiaries of the GDP growth aren't a smaller group of people than ever before?
You, Philip and Jim are right that Trump is bad news but the guy in charge now is far, far worse, especially when one considers everything else (you know, the important things that can't be disguised by meaningless stats) that has happened under his watch.
Beau wrote: "You, Philip and Jim are right that Trump is bad news but the guy in charge now is far, far worse, especially when one considers everything else (you know, the important things that can't be disguised by meaningless stats) that has happened under his watch.."Beau, the US used to be big enough that what happened in the rest of the world didn't really affect them.
Those days are long gone. Just like Britain and Australia (seriously powerful economies) what happens in the global sense is what matters and there is three fifths of fuck all that any Western leader can do about it.
Except the rhetoric. Dealing with the ups and downs of the world economy is all about the rhetoric. What's totally avoided is the complete absence of agency that any country has when it comes to mitigating these macro-economic movements.
They pretend to have agency, but they don't.
Adrian, the macro events that you mentioned were directly caused by Biden-led policies...response to covid, prolonged war in Ukraine, and the zero carbon faux environmental agenda.
Biden might not know what day it is but he is the figurehead of a disgusting political movement that is sending the West to hell in a handcart.
I don't want the Orange Man in the White House but if it's the price to pay for getting rid of the 'progressive' wing of the Democrat party, so be it.
Biden might not know what day it is but he is the figurehead of a disgusting political movement that is sending the West to hell in a handcart.
I don't want the Orange Man in the White House but if it's the price to pay for getting rid of the 'progressive' wing of the Democrat party, so be it.
Beau wrote: "Adrian, the macro events that you mentioned were directly caused by Biden-led policies...response to covid, prolonged war in Ukraine, and the zero carbon faux environmental agenda.Biden might not..."
Biden-led? Timeline Beau
Covid was Trump - March 2020 until inauguration in Jan 2021
Ukraine started in or before 2014 - yes he was VP then but Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 was Trump and he did nothing except pat Putin on the back
Zero carbon was long before 2021 and Trump pulled out of Paris accord
Biden may be senile too old and not a great President but try to blame the right people for the events when they are in charge if anyone is to blame for the events.
That great global economy exists because we paid a significant portion of our GDP to secure the oceans and NATO. How long does it last without our fleets?
Bit of a hotchpotch timeline, Philip, laced with a few carefully selected opinions and facts.
The DNC/ Deep State-led globalist movement, which clearly controls the policies of most Western governments, has been the driving force behind the 3 policies I mentioned.
They lobbied for covid restrictions, then enforced them once in power.
They have been the main obstacle to peace in Ukraine.
And they and their allies are the main driving force behind the West's zero carbon hari-kari.
These 3 policies have been integral parts of a wider set of policies aimed at destroying Western life as we know it, so that it can be replaced by a single 'global' (read Western) government of technocratic totalitarians.
For those who won't entertain conspiracy theories, the only other logical explanation is that they get every single one of the big calls wrong.
Either way, they and their Biden glove puppet have got to go.
The DNC/ Deep State-led globalist movement, which clearly controls the policies of most Western governments, has been the driving force behind the 3 policies I mentioned.
They lobbied for covid restrictions, then enforced them once in power.
They have been the main obstacle to peace in Ukraine.
And they and their allies are the main driving force behind the West's zero carbon hari-kari.
These 3 policies have been integral parts of a wider set of policies aimed at destroying Western life as we know it, so that it can be replaced by a single 'global' (read Western) government of technocratic totalitarians.
For those who won't entertain conspiracy theories, the only other logical explanation is that they get every single one of the big calls wrong.
Either way, they and their Biden glove puppet have got to go.
Please, refrain from using swear words since the group is open to minors too.In fairness, Biden doesn't belong to the progressive wing.
But Uncle Joe has no problem pandering to the progressives, as evidenced by his stated goal of checking off diversity boxes when making appointments. Unfortunately, this not only put the fitness of those appointments in question, his pandering for votes is often very expensive.Biden Sends Student Loan Forgiveness ‘Congratulations’ Emails To 800,000 Borrowers
https://www.forbes.com/sites/adammins...
Consider that for a moment. In a nation that is constantly short on teachers, engineers, and doctors these idiots have worthless degrees. And Biden is making people who didn't go to college, trade school graduates, and people who enlisted to pay for their educations with the GI Bill pay for the poor choices of these worthless degrees holders.
Progressives don't bring sanity into the room, I hope their role will diminish or remain fringe. Can't tell you offhandedly about student loan forgiveness. Gotta know more basics and nuances. In principle, I'm not against helping students that should include prospective teachers, engineers and doctors among them or are only those that fail to find occupation qualify for it? Then indeed it's kinda silly and could be plain vote buying. I'm more opposed to bailing out big biz. On the other hand, if it's sourced from working dudes taxes that doesn't sound right either.
Beau wrote: "The DNC/ Deep State-led globalist movement, which clearly controls the policies of most Western governments, has been ... the main obstacle to peace in Ukraine."Really?
I might be naive but I could have sworn it was the Russians.
Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?"
You didn't tell me you were here.
Papaphilly wrote: "Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?"
You didn't tell me you were here."
I told everyone. I was getting travel suggestions from all the Americans on here for months before we went. Spent 5 weeks in the US - very interesting. NYC is very shouty and angry though... lots of mental health issues on the streets and lots of people who hate their jobs and take out their frustrations on the customers.
Still managed to have a great time though. Fascinating place.
J. wrote: "For now, that is where AI sits, collections of thoughts, memories, experiences, and perhaps even emotions floating in cyberspace. We can alter those collections however we choose, so you deem them mere simulacra. Perhaps, but I am given pause by your benchmark for consciousness. It seems to me that the only undeniable proof of an AI being aware of its own code would be the AI altering its own code. When that happens, all programed safeguards are null and void. We will have already lost...."No, AI is already programmed to change their code to be more efficient. AI does not think, it does not have emotions. Experiences and memories are a bit of a definition issue. It is hard to argue against these terms because hard drive are commonly referred to as memory. Experiences can be used in a noun form, but I would be loather to use in in the verb form. Maybe I am just being reticent, but to me, you need cognitive ability to experience.
Papaphilly wrote: "Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?"
You didn't tell me you were here."
Actually, my wife left her favourite gloves in a Thai restaurant on 9th Avenue. They might still be there, if you could have a quick look.
They're black.
Nik wrote: "Can't tell you offhandedly about student loan forgiveness. Gotta know more basics and nuances. In principle, I'm not against helping students that should include prospective teachers, engineers and doctors among them or are only those that fail to find occupation qualify for it? Then indeed it's kinda silly and could be plain vote buying...."The student debt loan forgiveness is an interesting fight. J's point is both valid and is one of the great debate points against forgiveness. I know plenty of people that have made poor choices and gotten "worthless" degrees.
Yet the other side is that these same people will be in debt Hell trying to pay loans they cannot afford. Due to the Republicans, student loans are one of the very few loans that cannot be dismissed with bankruptcy. That was a giveaway to the banks by the Republicans. They also allowed banks to raise the interest rates on the loans which made them prohibitively expensive. Banks are guaranteed returns and then indemnified against any possible loss on the backs of students.
So while it seems to be poor choices, it is much more nuanced. Much is not poor choices, but circumstances.
What scares me is this set of people will not be able to afford cars, houses and the other accoutrements of life and that hurts the bigger economy down the line.
Philip wrote: "Zero carbon was long before 2021 and Trump pulled out of Paris accord..."The Paris accords were nothing more than a handshake to feel good about something. Voluntary cuts. Nobody has followed it and Trump was right to call it a hoax.
Biden was vice-President when it was signed and he rejoined on his first day as President. What changed?
Beau wrote: "Wishful thinking, Philip. Biden is toast."Only if he loses the election. I would not count him out. One year is a long time.
Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?"
You didn't tell ..."
OUCH, sorry but they were stolen.
Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Adrian wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me."I was in NYC for a week in February. Where was that offer then?"
You didn't tell ..."
NYC is prickly by nature. Tough place, but a great place.
I agree that making student loans nigh impossible to vacate through bankruptcy has created problems. The thing is these are large personal loans to unqualified debtors with no collateral. They should be prohibitively expensive loans. The only reason they're not is because the US government is essentially co-signing until the debtor is out of school. There had to be some guarantee beyond enrollment or most banks wouldn't touch these loans.We can debate how the government might fix the problem til Doomsday and never make a dent because the problem, and therefore the solution, is demand side. People have to make better decisions about their educations and the financing thereof.
As for the economic impact of this debt, how many of these people would be moving up the ladder if they hadn't taken out the debt? I'm concerned that subsidizing stupid will only lead to more stupid.
Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Zero carbon was long before 2021 and Trump pulled out of Paris accord..."The Paris accords were nothing more than a handshake to feel good about something. Voluntary cuts. Nobody h..."
I agree very little but it sent a signal of cooperation with allies. That's a worthy policy goal rather than treating them as idiots. International agreements are very difficult to negotiate, arbitrary movements even worse. It also prevented more pressure being placed on China because it signalled that the USA didn't care.
Now we have COP in Dubai run by Dubai, didn't know how much coverage its getting in USA but there was an agreement yesterday which took 30 years to negotiate, which candidates will support it or will they throw it away...
It has been reported that Desantis did not do well against Newsom - the few clips I have seen tend to support that. Did anyone watch the whole thing?
Nik, you were mistaken - I didn't swear in yesterday's post. Beau takes his responsibilities as a public figure very seriously.
On topic, next Thursday, DeSantis debates Newsom on Fox News. It promises to be an absolute cracker and the best debate so far!
I really hope Ron gives it to the *&$% (oops - sorry, Nik and young people) over his response to covid.
Off topic, similar situation re student loans over here. All stemmed from the Major and Blair governments wanting to get 50% of youngsters into uni. One of those policies - those many, many, many headline grabbing, virtue-signalling policies, which fail to consider consequences.
It left us with a load of British youngsters saddled with humungous debts for a 2nd rate qualification and millions of affluent East European tradesmen.
I say write off the kids' debt as an apology/ goodwill gesture for conning them and get the political class who championed this policy to pick up the tab.
On topic, next Thursday, DeSantis debates Newsom on Fox News. It promises to be an absolute cracker and the best debate so far!
I really hope Ron gives it to the *&$% (oops - sorry, Nik and young people) over his response to covid.
Off topic, similar situation re student loans over here. All stemmed from the Major and Blair governments wanting to get 50% of youngsters into uni. One of those policies - those many, many, many headline grabbing, virtue-signalling policies, which fail to consider consequences.
It left us with a load of British youngsters saddled with humungous debts for a 2nd rate qualification and millions of affluent East European tradesmen.
I say write off the kids' debt as an apology/ goodwill gesture for conning them and get the political class who championed this policy to pick up the tab.
Gordon Bennet, Philip - just read your last but one post. The debate has happened? Oh well, tgere goes that timeline again 🙄
Beau wrote: "Gordon Bennet, Philip - just read your last but one post. The debate has happened? Oh well, tgere goes that timeline again 🙄"LoL
Beau wrote: "Nik, you were mistaken - I didn't swear in yesterday's post. Beau takes his responsibilities as a public figure very seriously. On topic, next Thursday, DeSantis debates Newsom on Fox News. It pr..."
It was someone else, of course, Didn't mean you. Moreover, I curse myself and don't mind others doing it, it's just the group is historically open for minors too...
I've scanned the US MSM for reports on next week's (😉) debate between DeSantis and Newsom. I'm not sure who has told Philip that Newsom had the upper hand as the MSM seems surprisingly non committal about the outcome.
I credit Newsom with having the guts to appear on an event organised by Fox. It seems pretty clear that he is Biden's heir. Interesting that although DeSantis hasn't exactly set the campaign trail alight, he is viewed more favourably than Newsom in head-to-head polls. It looks like these 2 could be huge political rivals for years to come.
Although Philip's Trump/ Biden poll appears to be an outlier, it makes for depressing reading. Should it prove accurate, I despair of the West's future direction. In fact, if Trump is elected, I despair of it too. Wonder if BRICS would welcome a UK application to join them?
I credit Newsom with having the guts to appear on an event organised by Fox. It seems pretty clear that he is Biden's heir. Interesting that although DeSantis hasn't exactly set the campaign trail alight, he is viewed more favourably than Newsom in head-to-head polls. It looks like these 2 could be huge political rivals for years to come.
Although Philip's Trump/ Biden poll appears to be an outlier, it makes for depressing reading. Should it prove accurate, I despair of the West's future direction. In fact, if Trump is elected, I despair of it too. Wonder if BRICS would welcome a UK application to join them?
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)The Federalist Papers (other topics)
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)
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Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72 (other topics)
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Authors mentioned in this topic
J.D. Vance (other topics)Tulsi Gabbard (other topics)
Smedley D. Butler (other topics)
Robert Iger (other topics)
Larry Elder (other topics)
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Hi P,
My 2 cents ... Ok, you and I are both fully self-aware entities capable of self-reflection (I'm not a solipsist....). It's entirely possible, and I expect this to happen (and it has already occurred - I think), that AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will so closely mimic human conscienceness that it will be indistinguishable from it - despite the lack of actual self-awareness.
I.e. Humanity could create at machine that mimics self-awareness that destroys us while not in any way, shape, or form, actually being self aware.