World, Writing, Wealth discussion
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Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?
J. wrote: "This is the third time I've posted this Michael Moore clip to help y'all understand why people vote for Trump https://youtu.be/TEHekdQSiXg?si=nnhOG...
And now they've had four years of Un..."
But we know all that (I've written about it myself), and no-one on here has been supporting Biden. We just don't get why anyone (not even his mum) would even contemplate voting for such an appalling creature as Trump.
Voting for? What makes you think that this will be decided by people voting for someone? Didn't you hear what Moore said? This won't be decided by people voting for someone. It will be decided by whom people vote AGAINST.So, who do more Americans hate?
Unless one of the candidates dies between now and then, there's going to be 3 serious runners (serious as in polling at 20%+)...
Biden, Trump and Kennedy.
If Americans don't want either of the first two, they know what to do.
Come on, it's there for you on a plate. An immediate end to the terrible twins and a positive vision for your country.
Grasp it.
Biden, Trump and Kennedy.
If Americans don't want either of the first two, they know what to do.
Come on, it's there for you on a plate. An immediate end to the terrible twins and a positive vision for your country.
Grasp it.
One for you Beau."Biden 2024? 62% of Democrats Want Challengers
Majority of Democrats support RFK, Jr. Presidential Campaign"
REF: Rassmusen poll on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/st...
A nice pair of linked stats, Graeme.
The other 2 candidates have both been tried. And they have both failed because roughly 50% of the population hates each of them.
The biggest obstacle to Kennedy becoming President is fear...Fear that by voting for him that either the hated Biden or hated Trump will get in (hated depending on which camp you're in).
A negative emotion like fear is a poor basis on which to cast a vote. It attracts negative outcomes.
Americans, cast aside your fear, stand tall and proud, and vote for something positive. Your vote and your country will then reap a positive> outcome.
The only positive vote is a vote for Kennedy because he is the only man with a positive vision for your country.
The other 2 candidates have both been tried. And they have both failed because roughly 50% of the population hates each of them.
The biggest obstacle to Kennedy becoming President is fear...Fear that by voting for him that either the hated Biden or hated Trump will get in (hated depending on which camp you're in).
A negative emotion like fear is a poor basis on which to cast a vote. It attracts negative outcomes.
Americans, cast aside your fear, stand tall and proud, and vote for something positive. Your vote and your country will then reap a positive> outcome.
The only positive vote is a vote for Kennedy because he is the only man with a positive vision for your country.
Beau wrote: "The only positive vote is a vote for Kennedy because he is the only man with a positive vision for your country."Only? We have yet to see who the Libertarian candidate will be.
Will there be a Libertarian candidate?
A bit like the Greens candidate, a minor player in current* US politics.*Of course, common place back in the late 1700s.
With the release of 40K hours of J6 footage, looks like the official narrative is crumbling.REF: https://twitter.com/CitizenFreePres/s...
REF: https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/17...
REF: https://twitter.com/BasedMikeLee/stat...
How will a shifting J6 narrative impact voting intentions?
I know there are honourable constitutional purists, like J, who disapprove of J6 (and obviously the TDS brigade do too), but I'd be surprised if it's something that most Americans would consider before casting their vote.
It strikes me as one of those issues which dinner party guests will condemn, to be seen by their peers as saying the right thing but, privately, they don't really care about it.
IMO, it was a bit of fun that got out of hand - tragically for one or two people - but ultimately a storm in a tea cup. 'Insurrection' it certainly wasn't.
BTW, whenever I think about it, the song 'Eton Rifles', by The Jam, always comes to mind...
Trump loaded the guns, then ran off home for his tea.
Left them standing like guilty schoolboys.
It strikes me as one of those issues which dinner party guests will condemn, to be seen by their peers as saying the right thing but, privately, they don't really care about it.
IMO, it was a bit of fun that got out of hand - tragically for one or two people - but ultimately a storm in a tea cup. 'Insurrection' it certainly wasn't.
BTW, whenever I think about it, the song 'Eton Rifles', by The Jam, always comes to mind...
Trump loaded the guns, then ran off home for his tea.
Left them standing like guilty schoolboys.
It's political theater, and was always meant to be. That's why Pelosi ordered the Capitol Police to stand down before the incident. That's why Ray Epps, the man seen making direct overtures to breaking into the Capitol (and being accused of being a narc by the crowd), has been protected by a majority Democrat investigation. And it's why they keep comparing it to 9/11. As a personal aside, I found it curious that, in her speech, VP Harris compared it to December 7, 1941 and September 11, 2001, but not April 12, 1861. The firing upon Fort Sumter was the most relevant possible citation. Perhaps, the Dems didn't want people to think about that one.
Now, both sides are working to shape the narrative.
Liz Cheney and Republican Senator Exchange Fiery Words Over Jan. 6 Videos
https://www.newsweek.com/liz-cheney-m...
As another personal aside, why hasn't the Cheney name been scoured from the halls of American politics? Seriously, how many lies and corpses does it take?
J. wrote: "As another personal aside, why hasn't the Cheney name been scoured from the halls of American politics? Seriously, how many lies and corpses does it take?..."I'm not aware of any society with the capacity to identify and actively remove high-functioning psychopaths from their midst.
I'm catching up, so this is in reply to quite a few posts back.Soros wants a senile puppet in the White House, not an equally uncontrollable egomaniac like himself :-)
You guys were talking about illegal immigrants as cheap labor. Do you think that's why Democrats support an open border? I think they're importing future voters. They'll give millions of illegals the right to vote, and whom do you think they'll vote for? Democrats will never lose the presidency again or probably any election.
This is especially repugnant because illegals don't pay taxes and suck on the government teat provided by legal tax payers of both parties. Illegal children have free education, free breakfast and lunch; all illegals have free healthcare due to their indigent status; they have food assistance - all paid for with US workers' tax dollars. As defined by Graeme, illegals are value extractors. Working Americans are value creators. And, as Graeme says: "In a functional economic society, the two modes are more or less balanced across everyone with value creation exceeding value extraction." I'd ask how much longer we'll have a functional economic society when there are so many value extractors, and when inflation and taxes are so high for the value creators. The working class feels hopeless.
So, getting back to the topic of the 2024 election, why would anyone vote for Biden or any Democrat who has supported his agenda?
Well, with slightly less than a year to go, I'm going out on a limb and make some bold predictions for the upcoming presidential election.For the record, these are my expectations, not my wishes.
[1] [100%, Certain] Joe Biden withdraws from the race due to ill-health, or other medical issue up to and including death. Before this happens, Biden's popularity will continue to plummet resulting in him becoming unelectable - then, he'll get sick, retire for ill-health, or [1.1] [Above 60%, likely] die in his sleep, and it will be diagnosed post-mortem as a 'heart attack,' due entirely to natural causes. The main stream media will mourn his death and extol his virtues. Harris will become president (caretaker only), and then step aside for another candidate in 2024, as she is even more unelectable than Biden.
[2] [Above 90%, almost certain] Kamala Harris, will not be moved up the ticket to candidate for President.
[3] [Above 80%, highly likely] Gavin Newsom, will be parachuted into the candidency for president by DNC fiat (no contest will be held due to 'lack of time,' or some other excuse). Harris may [20% unlikely] be his running mate, there is a [3.a] [Above 80%, highly likely] that a new running mate will be selected. In this case, [3.b] [Above 80%, highly likely] the VP candidate will be Michelle Obama.
[4] [Above 90%, almost certain] Trump will not be found guilty on any charge and will proceed to front-run as the Republican candidate.
[5] [Above 90%, almost certain] RFK-Jr continues to gain in popularity throughout 2024 until he's picking up more than 20% of the vote.
[6] [Above 80%, highly likely] Trump picks Vivek Ramaswamy as his VP.
[7] [Above 60%, likely] Late in 2024, Trump/Ramaswamy have a commanding lead in the polls as economic and cultural chaos, and substantial inflation stalk the land.
[8] [Above 80%, highly likely] Late in 2024, RFK-Jr maintains a splitting >25% of the vote, that is more damaging to the democrats than the republicans. I.e. He's taking more democrat votes than republican votes, as Americans look for a alternative to the establishment.
[9] [Above 50%, likely] RFK-Jr is killed by a lone gunman with an AR-15 who is identified by the media as a right-wing, white, incel, male, Trump supporting MAGA 'domestic terrorist.' The shooter then suicides with a bed sheet while in custody within the next 24 hours.
[10] [Above 20%, unlikely, but possible] The elections are temporarily suspended, Trump is killed by the FBI while resisting arrest for 'crimes against Democracy.' Ramaswarmy flies out of the US in his private jet to an island outside extradition laws. The elections are held two weeks later with only Newsom/Obama on the ticket. Newsom/Obama win all the electoral college seats, and are sworn in as president and VP in January 2025.
[10.1] [100%, Certain] The corporate media applaud the new president and VP, while declaring their win a victory for democracy and the rule of law.
[10.2] [100%, Certain] The US constitution is permanently suspended in 2025.
[10.3] [Above 90%, almost certain] An ugly civil war 'Civil War 2.0' ensues resulting in the balkanization of the US.
[10.4] [100%, Certain] China becomes a global hegemon.
Graeme wrote: "Well, with slightly less than a year to go, I'm going out on a limb and make some bold predictions for the coming presidential election.For the record, these are my expectations, not my wishes.
..."
Is this a joke?
Somewhat tongue in cheek but I'm quite serious about much of it. That said, I'd be very surprised if it all happened this way as I'm not some magical oracle...But some of the predictions may well land.
I honestly do not expect Biden to make the next election. The guy's already unelectable, and the people who sponsor him will not tolerate failure.He's definently will be 'let go,' before the main event. With that said, I'll revise my prediction [1] above to certain 100%.
After all, I'm being bold here...
Papaphilly wrote: "Is this a joke?..."Hi Papaphilly,
The key difference between us is that you expect normality ... whereas I do not.
We are in a cultural/social transition phase where what was normal in the past is breaking down and being replaced. What occurs over the next decade, I can't predict in detail, but what I can predict is the key thematic response which will be ... "WTF?!"
Expect the unexpected.
Normalcy bias (tomorrow will be like yesterday) is no longer applicable.
Kansas has gone "Bye bye, Toto."
The next 12 months will tell us who is closer to reality. Personally I hope you are.
Graeme wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Is this a joke?..."Hi Papaphilly,
The key difference between us is that you expect normality ... whereas I do not.
We are in a cultural/social transition phase where what was..."
You are right, I expect normalcy. I have history on my side. I am also a student of history. There will be changes, not all good and not all bad. That is why I am sanguine over much of people panicking. History suggests over the long run, normalcy continues.
Since 2001, I have seen normal shift so far from the America that I was raised to believe in that I sometimes can't connect the country I live in to the nation in which I grew up. For the last seven years that shift has been terrifying. We have witnessed the very pillars of our press carry out a propaganda war against a lawfully elected president and simultaneously beatify HRC, vile swamp creature that she is. We have internal FBI memos advising federal monitoring of parents who object to progressive agendas in the children's schools. We watched cities burn while the press gave them cover as "mostly peaceful". And now the talking heads are telling us that a sundowning octogenarian who can't handle stairs is in fine enough health to lead the free world for another four years. I won't discount bad things as impossible.I place the odds of Biden pulling an LBJ at a coin flip.
Harris' political career was torpedoed by Tulsi Gabbard. The only reason her political aspirations didn't die then and there was because the cracker who put more black men in prison than Apartheid needed to check off some diversity boxes. Her becoming president would risk divine retribution.
Newsome is slick enough to slide clean through the primaries and cinch the nomination. Then the RNC will remind everyone that while we were locked down in our homes, many of us even forbidden from giving comfort to our dying elders, Governor Newsome was celebrating his birthday with friends and family at a Michelin starred restaurant.
Agreed, J.Normalcy has left the building.
No it has not. This is 1968, the 1920's again. Times are confusing, but not nearly as bad. Just not comfortable.
I am not comforted by your comparison of our times to the tumults of the 1920s because I know where that tumult led.
J. wrote: "I am not comforted by your comparison of our times to the tumults of the 1920s because I know where that tumult led."My only point is this is not the first time through.
Graeme, your prediction post is fascinating, as are the follow-up posts. With the exception of point 10, which still isn't inconceivable, I think there's a decent chance of any of those things happening.
Obviously, I hope RFK Jr isn't assassinated, but if he is I would bet my bottom dollar that the 'culprit' is exactly how you describe. Equally certain would be the fact that he wasn't actually the culprit.
And J, a very eloquent, powerful post. I feel exactly the same as you do. Today's UK is not the same country I grew up in, either. And I don't like the way it's changing.
Papaphilly, I've got a lot of time for your 'history repeats itself/ nothing new under the sun' argument. It's a philosophy I used to follow too, but we do seem to be living in quite extraordinary times. It's not a time of normalcy. And I would imagine none of us know the half of what's really going on in the corridors of power.
Obviously, I hope RFK Jr isn't assassinated, but if he is I would bet my bottom dollar that the 'culprit' is exactly how you describe. Equally certain would be the fact that he wasn't actually the culprit.
And J, a very eloquent, powerful post. I feel exactly the same as you do. Today's UK is not the same country I grew up in, either. And I don't like the way it's changing.
Papaphilly, I've got a lot of time for your 'history repeats itself/ nothing new under the sun' argument. It's a philosophy I used to follow too, but we do seem to be living in quite extraordinary times. It's not a time of normalcy. And I would imagine none of us know the half of what's really going on in the corridors of power.
"History repeats itself" isn't a comfort. It's a warning.
J. wrote: ""History repeats itself" isn't a comfort. It's a warning."You still miss the bigger point. It is all cyclical. Being a student of history, I am always amazed no matter how much changes, more still remains the same.
J. wrote: "Oh boy, the Endless Waltz."And you are surprised why? History repeats.
Point taken on the comfort/ warning point, J.
I'm sure that in July of 410 AD the good people of Rome rested assured that their city would continue as it always had. Would you want to trade places with them?
Good one, J., post 673.And I guess in some ways history is repeating itself. I remember that JFK was protected by the press when he was president, the same way that Biden has been protected by the press. But I think some things that are happening now are unprecedented: people declaring at a moment's notice that their sexual identity has changed, despite biology; a senile person being taken seriously as a presidential candidate; a sitting president being persecuted based on lies fomented by the opposing party, which were subsequently proved to be a conspiracy; a political party in favor of abolishing the police; an open border with no vetting of who's coming in or where they go; a president who refuses to answer press questions and just turns his back and walks away; AI up and coming to blur the truth; a president who is obviously incapable of leading the country, but who is a puppet controlled by someone behind the scenes. Maybe these things have happened before, but not in my lifetime.
Don't want to sound too conservative, but Biden - Trump II still looks more probable than any other scenario. Love Graeme's thoughtful predictions! As they envisage some fatalities, I hope latter can be avoided
Scout wrote: "Good one, J., post 673.And I guess in some ways history is repeating itself. I remember that JFK was protected by the press when he was president, the same way that Biden has been protected by th..."
All Presidents were pretty much protected by the press on personal matters. That changed with Gary Hart's baiting the press. Presidents cheated and you did not hear about it. The Press felt it was personal business and did not report it.
Scout wrote: "But I think some things that are happening now are unprecedented: people declaring at a moment's notice that their sexual identity has changed, despite biology; a senile person being taken seriously as a presidential candidate; a sitting president being persecuted based on lies fomented by the opposing party, which were subsequently proved to be a conspiracy; a political party in favor of abolishing the police; an open border with no vetting of who's coming in or where they go; a president who refuses to answer press questions and just turns his back and walks away; AI up and coming to blur the truth; a president who is obviously incapable of leading the country, but who is a puppet controlled by someone behind the scenes. Maybe these things have happened before, but not in my lifetime...."Ok, you want to see history repeat? Hmmmm.... A president that is senile being protected? Ronald Reagan was senile and was protected. He was definitely protected by both his people and wife. As a matter of fact His people covered for him during Iran Contra. The other famous one is FDR and his wife signing legislation.
A president being persecuted? Bill Clinton. Regardless of what you personally believe or I personally believe, the Republicans ran him to ground. There are people to this day think he killed Vince Foster. Herbert Hoover and Harry Truman are also good examples. History has been much kinder to the latter than the former.
Abolishing the police? Late 1960's through mid-1970's cops were castigated constantly and called pigs. They were under attack by the populace even though they had a terrible job to do. BTW, Watts riots. There were calls for lesser jail sentences and please understand the underclass. Guess what? Crime soared.
Transgender athletes? Ever hear of Dr. Renee Richards?
AI up and coming blurring the truth? Ok fair enough. However, take a step back and widen your view for a sec. The bigger issue is quick massive technological change in a short period. Before AI, the internet. Before the internet, TV. Massive game changer. It changed a Presidential debate into a win for JFK because he was much more telegenic. It brought Vietnam into the home live and it changed how families saw the war. It also changed a generation of kids and how they saw the world. Now, the internet and smart phones and it changed a generation of kids.
The Kardashians now, the Gabors then. Celebrities for being celebrities.
Border crossings? Been bad for 50 years. It waxes and wanes.
Avoiding press conferences? That is all of them at some point or another. Nixon and Reagan did not have many press conferences in general. Clinton foisted much of his press conferences onto his legal staff due to the Monica Lewinski mess. I think Biden has had the fewest. Do I even need to bring up Trump and his treatment of them and theirs of him. Since I am such a fan of history, McKinley was famous for ending press conferences when he was asked questions off script.
History does repeat.
J. wrote: "I'm sure that in July of 410 AD the good people of Rome rested assured that their city would continue as it always had. Would you want to trade places with them?"
BTW, America will fall at some point in the future too. That is the real lesson from Rome. Every country falls at some point. Governements change, but people go on.
Nik wrote: "Don't want to sound too conservative, but Biden - Trump II still looks more probable than any other scenario. Love Graeme's thoughtful predictions! As they envisage some fatalities, I hope latter ..."
I cannot disagree with you. I still think Nikki Hailey is my dark horse.
Superb long post, Papaphilly. Very convincing points. One to chew over and reflect upon.
Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, America will fall at some point in the future too. That is the real lesson from Rome. Every country falls at some point. Governements change, but people go on. ..."In the pre-industrial period, if a society fell, the vast majority of the people still lived on and from the land. They still grew food and had a chance to survive social and political upheavel.
In the modern era, less than 3% of the population know how to grow food, and they do it with energy and material intensive systems that are utterly dependent upon complex supply chains to operate.
In the 1830s & 40s, the US was riven with political divisions that culminated in the civil war, which killed (if I remember correctly approx 500K people, and/or 2% of the adult male population.)
What would happen in a modern environment with urban populations? Note, we have similar levels of social and political division, arguably even more intense than the mid-1800s.
All our societies are 1 week away from social chaos, 1 month away from mass starvation, and 3 months away from catastrophic collapse.
All it will take is the right triggering event to cause a cascade of interlocking disasters as our 'system of systems,' breaks down.
Being sanguine about a 'fall,' may be due to a lack of consideration of the potential downsides.
Papaphilly,I think Graeme's post covers why we need to fight against the fall.
I will take a small issue with your characterization of AI as a technological problem. The simple truth is that a truly self aware AI arising will be the first time in 40 millennia that a separate intelligent, tool using species has existed beside us. It should be noted that once we arose the others disappeared. Whether they were killed by us or merged with us, they no longer exist.
The rise of AI is a potential extinction level event, and the powers that be don't seem concerned.
J. wrote: "The rise of AI is a potential extinction level event, and the powers that be don't seem concerned..."
Humanity has an environment with multiple threats in it, AI being one of them.
Graeme wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "BTW, America will fall at some point in the future too. That is the real lesson from Rome. Every country falls at some point. Governements change, but people go on. ..."In the ..."
I have considered the downsides. I spend quite a bit of time reading on all of this area. You are certainly correct that it can happen, I just see it not likely. I do not discount it, just put it into perspective. We just went through a Pandemic and society did not die. We have been through much worse and society did not die. It is resilient.
Let me try it this way. If the United States had a catastrophe, the area affected would receive help from outside the area affected. this is a known phenomena, it is called the Waffle House effect. We can tell how bad a weather event is going to be by watching the Waffle House restaurants.
So lets make it Ireland. An island that gets hit with wide catastrophe that knocks it to its knees. International aide would pour in just like everywhere else when it happens.
Right now, the world is too big still to lose everything. Of course one of you wise guys should now ask what if a meteor hits us.... The exception that proves the rule. It can certainly happen, just not very likely in the next 500,000 years.
It was the same way for me when it came to nuclear bombs and everyone was up in arms. It was certainly dangerous, but not likely. I understood the MAD scenario and understood that both sides love their children. Possible, not probable.
Papaphilly, I don't doubt that history has cyclical themes within it - as it's always driven by humanity - who are a constant.However, environments can bifurcate producing a distinct 'before' and 'after.'
Consider if Dodos could talk (in posh English accents...)
[FADE IN] Island of Mauritius....
"I say, William, look at that giant wooden thing landing on our beach."
"My goodness, Horace, what on Earth could it be?"
"It appears to be inhabited."
"Apparently by hairless monkeys by the look of it. They're dragging the blasted wooden thing up on the sand!"
"A rum show that. There goes the neighbourhood. Such riff raff!"
"Hmmm..... bounders and cads the lot of them ... but what are those small grayish brownish furry creatures scampering across the sand?"
"They appear to have come from the wooden thing, William. They are a bit odd. I've never seen the like of them before."
"My dear Horace, they are most likely harmless."
"Indeed, my dear friend, after all , we have lived here in peace forever. What could possibly change that?"
"Clearly, those little scurrying creatures are not a threat. But ... (looking back at his nest) ... Ummm ... where are my eggs???"
[FADE OUT]....
The bottomline, your expectation that the future will be like the past (normalcy bias) is blocking awareness of bifurcation events that produce radically different futures. Normalcy bias is extremely common and we all fall prey to it. Nothing to be ashamed of - just something to be aware of.
J. wrote: "Papaphilly,I think Graeme's post covers why we need to fight against the fall.
I will take a small issue with your characterization of AI as a technological problem. The simple truth is that a t..."
I do see it as technological. I do not see a self-aware AI anytime soon if ever. I am not going to do a good job in my explanation be cause I am having a devil of a time articulating it. AI as we understand it is about 40 years old. it is a series of programs to perform given tasks. It has been programmed to teach itself and learn on its own. It has recently had many major accomplishments. it si going to be both a gift and a curse on humanity.
Yet, as far as consciousness, I see that as anything but technological. Right now, AI can be programmed to mimic human emotions, but not have them. So if you have seen the Japanese robots that look incredible human, yet they are creepy. That is because we see something is wrong.
If I understand it correctly, the argument seems to be at some point this will get so sophisticated that the AI will become self-aware. It will gain so much knowledge and it will trigger itself. I see it as mimicking, but not being the real deal. The only way I can describe it is that it is a spark of life. Not very rational, but it is as close as I am able to come right now.
Mr. Spok does a mind meld with VEGER in the original Star trek movie. Kirk is talking to his friend later about it and Spok holds Kirk's hand and says something along the line is that VEGER does not understand what that hand hold means. It is missing something basic and important.
You are certainly correct that if one does become self-aware, it will be a game changer for humanity. Yet, I just do not think it is likely at least in my lifetime.
Papaphilly wrote: "I have considered the downsides. I spend quite a bit of time reading on all of this area. You are certainly correct that it can happen, I just see it not likely. I do not discount it, just put it into perspective. We just went through a Pandemic and society did not die. We have been through much worse and society did not die. It is resilient...."Hi P, an excellent comment.
The key words are (not) likely and resiliant...
The essence of our discussion is in regards to [1] risk management. First identification, i.e. what could happen? Is it likely or not? What happens it it does eventuate? etc,
The second is [2] 'resiliance.' I.e our capacity to respond effectively to an actualised risk event to mitigate the harm of that event, and then stabilise post the event.
I strongly suspect that if we sat down in a pub with half-a-dozen beers we'd work out the differences b/w 'likely,' and 'resiliance.'
That said ... and in the absence of a pub with beer ... I'm going to assert that I'm somewhat more pessimistic than you are regarding our society's ability to recognise risk, manage risk, and respond to 'the resiliance bit,' risk events.
Graeme wrote: "Papaphilly, I don't doubt that history has cyclical themes within it - as it's always driven by humanity - who are a constant.However, environments can bifurcate producing a distinct 'before' and..."
No,
I do believe in normalcy, but I fully do not expect society to not change. So remember the opening of 2001 A Space Odyssey. When you watch it, it is always amazing how much they got right and how much they predicted. Yet, it is really amazing what they thought was going to happen and did not. Society is still recognizable. There will be changes, but still recognizable. The internet is probably the most important invention since Gutenberg's press. It was a true sea change for humanity. Still we are recognizable. Parts of the planet have skipped steps due to technology changes created by the western world. Yet, those skipped steps have not hurt the society skipping.
Let me try it this way, I fully expect China to come apart at the seems sooner than later. I do not see the CCP holding onto power another 30 years. I see it shattering much like the Soviet Union did and breaking into regions. Yet, there will still be a China, just not how we understand it now.
Graeme wrote: "That said ... and in the absence of a pub with beer ... I'm going to assert that I'm somewhat more pessimistic than you are regarding our society's ability to recognise risk, manage risk, and respond to 'the resiliance bit,' risk events..."I do not actually think any of you guys are as pessimistic as you let on. You keep going on and writing, living life, working, and having a beer. Life is still good. Worth living. If not, then why do these things? I do not sweat these things like everyone else. I have come to realize "been there done that" and it is liberating.
Now it does not mean I am always right, remember I predicted on the eve of the Ukraine war Russia would not invade. Yet, the world is going on. I fully expect Russia to lose in the end and probably fall apart. I am very much aware of the pain and destruction of all concerned. But this will pass. It will be a game changer for Russia, but not the entire world. The same could be said of Vietnem for the United States.
BTW, if you ever get to NYC, the first few beers are on me.
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)The Federalist Papers (other topics)
The Anti-Federalist Papers and the Constitutional Convention Debates (other topics)
Hillbilly Elegy: A Memoir of a Family and Culture in Crisis (other topics)
Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail '72 (other topics)
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Authors mentioned in this topic
J.D. Vance (other topics)Tulsi Gabbard (other topics)
Smedley D. Butler (other topics)
Robert Iger (other topics)
Larry Elder (other topics)
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https://youtu.be/TEHekdQSiXg?si=nnhOG...
And now they've had four years of Un..."
This is a good video of the same thing with better visuals: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ob-j...