Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions? Showing 501-550 of 1,997

[Graeme]

J. wrote: "There's always another Goldstein."

Indeed. Constructed upon demand.

[Scout]

Beau, I'm wondering if Kennedy will take a big bite out of Republican votes, since he's saying a lot of things they agree with.

Graeme, I'm not sure what you mean by "Tyranny requires subjects for the '2-minute hate,' process." It's probably something I should know about.

[J.]

The two-minutes hate was from 1984.
https://youtu.be/XvGmOZ5T6_Y?si=NiDCX...

INGSOC requires the citizenry to focus their hatred at the party approved scape goat, Goldstein, for two minutes every day. That way the people's animosity is pointed at a useful target. A potential rival is snuffed out. And those who don't show enough hatred to the enemy of the state can be identified, watched, and ultimately dealt with.

For Stalin, it was Trotsky. For Mao, it was Chiang Kai-shek. For the French National Convention, it was Robespierre. I wonder who could be drawing such attacks today.

[Graeme]

A corollary of the 2 minute hate was on display in North Korea after the demise of the previous supreme leader.

North Koreans had to publically display their grief and woe betide anyone who didn't cry enough.

REF: (AP News, 2 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BDz4...

[[deleted user]]

Saw the John Hurt/ Richard Burton version of 1984 again recently. Amazing acting. An absolute classic.

Mrs Beau delivered the immortal line of 'Wasn't very uplifting, was it?' at the end :)

Scout, if RFK Jr is going to do well, he needs to take votes off both parties. My prediction - essentially he's a Democrat, so he's going to end up taking more votes off Biden.

[J.]

Today was Election Day in the USA. There were mostly local and minor state matters on the ballots.

Pennsylvania county promises accurate tally after clerical error appears to flip votes for judges
https://apnews.com/article/pennsylvan...

I'm guessing that if the Dems lose next year, they'll cite this article. But if they win, questioning the security of voting machines will be down right treasonous.

[J.]

California governor Gavin Newsom has been sniffing around a presidential run. This sort of thing is what we can expect from a Newsom presidency.

More California prisoners are requesting gender-affirming health care, including surgeries
https://calmatters.org/justice/2023/0....

[Scout]

Thanks, J. and Graeme for explaining the 2-minute hate. I re-read 1984 a little over a year ago but didn't remember that. It's like a scapegoat, right?

And we need paper ballots in case of a recount. Otherwise, we have to believe the voting machines are impregnable. I don't.

The very idea of Gavin Newsom being a serious candidate for president makes me question the intelligence of Democrats even more than I already do. A grinning, supercilious hypocrite with an over-inflated ego, and a dismal record as governor of California - a state people are fleeing. Imagine what he'd do as president.

[Graeme]

Yes, a scapegoat.

Someone 'external,' must be blamed for all the misery caused by the Party's oppression and exploitation of society.

[Philip]

What was verdict on GOP debate? All I have seen is Haley calling Ramaswamy scum over comments about her daughter and that was before or after he called the Jewish Zelensky a Nazi.

[[deleted user]]

Loved your description of Newson, Scout.

Well, we've now had the 3rd Republican debate:

https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.amppr...

Didn't watch it but have read about it. Pure comedy gold...

Ramaswamy described Haley as 'Dick Cheney in 3-inch heels'.

Haley described Ramaswamy as 'scum'.

DeSantis promising to shoot drug smugglers 'stone-cold dead'.

All candidates v supportive of Israel.

However, I gather the GOP did badly in some elections this week. Don't know how much to read into that. Are voters being swayed by Philip or is there more to it than that? Perhaps US members can provide some insight?

[[deleted user]]

Contrast the wretchedness of Biden/ Newsom and the banality of the GOP candidates with this man:

https://www-pbs-org.cdn.ampproject.or...

RFK Jr is a real human being, a proper man, and an absolute breath of fresh air to politics. I would love to see him elected Leader of the Free World.

[Philip]

My influence in US elections

[[deleted user]]

Lol. Philip, in light of past allegations surrounding Trump and Brexit, I've been worrying about this lately. Is there any chance you or I could face charges of trying to interfere with the forthcoming US presidential election?

[Philip]

Beau wrote: "Lol. Philip, in light of past allegations surrounding Trump and Brexit, I've been worrying about this lately. Is there any chance you or I could face charges of trying to interfere with the forthco..."

We can join Assange awaiting extradition...

[J.]

Are y'all confessing to being Russian bots who are pretending to be British nationals?

[Philip]

J. wrote: "Are y'all confessing to being Russian bots who are pretending to be British nationals?"

I don't recall

[[deleted user]]

Amusing exchange.

Wait until AI really kicks in. You won't even be able to tell who's a bot in real life.

[J.]

Beepski, boop...

Password confirmation...................................fail
Status of Comrade Andropov cryotank......... functional

Returning to mission.

[Nik]

Scout wrote: "....A grinning, supercilious hypocrite with an over-inflated ego, and a dismal record.."

I think this should be added as definition of a "Politician" in Merriam-Webster and Cambridge :)

[Nik]

Finally the talk has begun to develop. More essential than most candidates :)

[Graeme]

Regarding Newsom,

A new poll reveals that more Californians disapprove of the job Gov. Gavin Newsom is doing (49%) than approve (44%).

The key shift is in swing voters

REF: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/70c6...

Maybe not a viable candidate?

[Adrian]

I've already posted this elsewhere in the Group but it bears repeating here...

My wife and I recently spent the best part of six weeks in the US and what most blew us away (everywhere) was the overt poverty. And I don't just mean people living on the streets, I mean places like New York and northern California where you see ramshackle homes and desolate neighbourhoods as far as the eye can see. These places (I guess) are owned or rented by the working poor - all of them flying the flag out front - but it looks like a really sizeable part of the population is in that condition. And NY and CAL are supposed to be wealthy states!

The only place we saw with some overt wealth (houses rather than skyscrapers) was Miami - and even that looked down-at-heel compared with Australian cities.

Compare this to just about any other Western country and sure - there'll be pockets - but not vast regions of poverty like we saw in the US. We've travelled a lot and if you go to places like the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Scandinavia, Japan, New Zealand and (obviously) Australia, you see a good level of housing / quality neighbourhoods (almost) everywhere. We were genuinely shocked by what we saw in the US.

The US is supposed to be (I thought) the wealthiest country in the world, but if that remains the case, the wealth is tied up in very few hands. Do Americans know about this?

If I was shocked at the level of housing and neighbourhoods in NY and CAL, how would the people actually living there feel?

These are traditional Democrat states so I can only speculate about conditions elsewhere in the US, but if I took people from northern CAL on a tour of Sydney or Melbourne... or the Thames Valley... or Provence, Tuscany, Auckland etc... they would feel ripped off and lied to about how good they have it. (I presume they feel good about their country because they all fly the flag.)

Could this mean that the Republican states are the ones with all the good neighbourhoods? Looking in from afar - we kinda assume that the money and intelligence go together. The rich live in NY and CAL so they must be the smart ones and they vote Democrat. Story checks out...

But could this be entirely wrong? Could the working poor of NY and CAL simply be the most deluded?

I genuinely fear for America on several levels but no matter how you cut it... if middle America knew how poor it was in comparison with other Western communities, there'd be big trouble.

And yet the only people who stand for President are billionaires (or claim to be).

[Graeme]

Hi Adrian,

I sometimes think the United States is like a corporation that has been subject to a hostile takeover. The new owners have been strip mining value out of the old corporation for decades. Once they have taken out all the value leaving only a dry husk of a facade behind, they will burn the place down to hide the evidence of their crimes while they collect on the final insurance payout and go live somewhere else.

I note the same could be said of western civilization as a whole, and if Australia is the better looking nag at the moment, we are all standing in the same glue factory...

[Adrian]

Graeme wrote: "Hi Adrian,

I note the same could be said of western civilization as a whole, and if Australia is the better looking nag at the moment, we are all standing in the same glue factory..."

Unfortunately, I suspect you're right.

Westerners living outside the US often watch with bemusement the antics of Americans, like "those who see through a conjuror's trick and smile at the confusion of others".

But the confusion is coming. AI bots and other disinformation sources are throwing us down the American path.

So who's to blame?

There is a subtle power grab going on right now across the world and I suspect that the teams we're used to barracking for... like countries, systems and ISMs... are no longer relevant.

[[deleted user]]

Fascinating posts, Adrian and Graeme. While I'm not sure Adrian's description of the US particularly applies to the UK's housing stock, the state of our towns and cities is absolutely dire.

I know my country extremely well and could probably count on less than one hand the places that still appear to be thriving. The most notable decline is in what used to be bustling working-class towns, although many middle-class staples have gone the same way. There is an ever-widening gap between the haves and have nots. The progress of the post-war years is gradually being undone.

Like Graeme, I get the impression that the West is being asset stripped by people who will move elsewhere when there's nothing much left to take.

One of the problems is the party political system. When the average Joe is drawn towards ultra-capitalist billionaires because their own parties don't want to listen to their concerns and appear to despise them, you know we're heading for trouble.

I agree with Adrian about the decline in the importance of the nation state too. I don't welcome this change because the nation state is the best form of governance for a cohesive society. It strikes the right balance between efficient management and democratic accountability.

Who's to blame? A predator class, who lurk on both sides of the political spectrum. The ones on the right use the cloak of patriotism, while those on the left use faux social justice concerns, both to achieve the same goals. And those are to divide, rule and deflect attention away from themselves.

[Adrian]

Predator class... I like it. Except I'd suggest they lurk on neither side of the political spectrum, they simply exploit the spectrum, while it suits them.

Why else would there be calls for the end of democracy?

You need to have a look at America, Beau. I've spent a lot of time in the UK and it's nothing like the US for dysfunction. Not even Moss Side and Toxteth (although those are extremes.)

Getting there though.

[J.]

Welcome to the sickening world of captured electorates. In the USA, the most famous is the Dem control of the black vote. And the Dems do take it for granted.
https://youtu.be/AKCJ45QMyLU?si=U9SPi...

He really takes it for granted.
https://youtu.be/We6Qr9-dDn8?si=VEhox...

I do love how the narrator calls Dem "ownership" of the black vote "false". Yeah, they are getting such wonderful things for their loyalty to the DNC.

23 Baltimore schools have zero students proficient in math, state test results reveal
https://wsbt.com/news/nation-world/23...

Of course, the captured electorates on the Republican side are evangelicals and gun owners. Groups which I suspect are viewed as bad or stupid people by several on this thread, and certainly by Dems.

[Adrian]

J. wrote: "Of course, the captured electorates on the Republican side are evangelicals and gun owners. Groups which I suspect are viewed as bad or stupid people by several on this thread, and certainly by Dems."

No such thing as a uniformly stupid group (although a gun owning evangelical would make me extremely nervous).

[Philip]

J. wrote: "Welcome to the sickening world of captured electorates. In the USA, the most famous is the Dem control of the black vote. And the Dems do take it for granted.
https://youtu.be/AKCJ45QMyLU?si=U9SPi3..."

This was how the Conservative party in the UK went after traditional Labour seats in the UK North (The Red Wall). They stated quite rightly that Labour had done little for them. Only the Conservatives have turned out to have done even less e.g. taken away funds and cancelled projects.

As for UK high streets and deprivation a lot of that is due to us the consumers. We have Amazon deliveries etc not browsing for hours in over-priced shops while being charged a small fortune for parking. Empty shops give the appearance of failure

In my visits to USA malls still seem to be going strong (could be wrong my evidence is limited to places I visited) and jobs statistics in UK and USA appear to be good despite inflation and tech changes.

There remains a strong feeling that the rich are doing too well. Have not seen any candidates left or right pushing that narrative, probably because those standing for office are in that rich list.

[[deleted user]]

I agree with your point about the political spectrum, Adrian. Whether assuming the guise of left or right, essentially these people only stand for one thing - their own enrichment.

I was born and spent my early years in an area of Birmingham that is similar to Moss Side and Toxteth. These sorts of area used to be okay - certainly not affluent but with a good community feel if you lived there. Now, they are grim. In fact, if you were dropped there, you wouldn't even know you were in a first-world country.

What is even more alarming is that areas previously regarded as affluent are going the same way.

My knowledge of the US is limited to TV and I've no intention of ever visiting there (unless RFK Jr offers me an all expenses paid trip to help with his campaign).

The TV programmes I've recently seen on Detroit and LA don't paint a very rosy picture. Yes, probably worse than worst areas of UK. And as what happens over there always finds its way over here, I'm sure I'll get a first-hand account of it soon.

[Philip]

On thread - I see we have another candidate standing Jill Stein - Beau - she's a Green allegedly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...

More Dem vote losses I suspect. The article claims it was her taking of some Dem votes that cost Clinton in 2016. She wasn't the Green candidate in 2020

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jill_Stein

[Nik]

All this is not even on the agenda of parties and politicians. Not an issue in mass media. You'd hear anything but not about the growing gap and impoverishing. Last I remember voicing a concern was Bernie. I guess there are too many distractions (purposefully or accidentally) to deal with the core...

[[deleted user]]

Lies, damned lies and statistics paint a rosy picture on the jobs front, Philip. In terms of pay, pensions and working conditions, theses jobs are garbage compared to those around when you or I were growing up. They're great for employers though.

Yes to internet damaging the high street. I might have the pleasure of talking to you all through it now, but it's the biggest double-edged sword in history. That said, UK high streets appear to be suffering more than elsewhere.

[J.]

Adrian wrote: "...a gun owning evangelical would make me extremely nervous..."

Are there no Mormons in Australia?

[[deleted user]]

Nothing against Jill, Philip, but anyone who cares about the environment can feel completely satisfied their concerns are in capable hands by backing RFK Jr.

It's a 3-horse race.

Regarding Australia, I've visited every state bar ACT. Although Sydney is the standout one for tourists, because of the harbour side, Perth struck me as the best place in which to live. Smaller town feel but with plenty going on.

[[deleted user]]

Just one other thing on this recent conversation...

There's a rapper called Zuby. I've never listened to his music cause I can't stand rap but I find his political views enlightening.

He reckons in the near future many middle-class Westerners will leave their homelands to start new lives in countries currently deemed slightly less desirable than their own, eg US to Brazil, UK and Germany to Poland and Hungary, etc, etc.

If the West continues to decline (and accept huge numbers of their own immigrants), I can see this happening too.

[Nik]

I'm not sure it's necessarily about declining. The tendency of relocating from UK and other countries to Bulgaria, for example, is pretty old. We used to have a lady in the group (don't know if she's still here), who made this move and was happy. I too know people who moved to more "tranquil" and "cheaper" locations. If you can lease your real estate in your home country and live like a king/queen elsewhere, for some it makes sense.
Add to this digital nomads, who work remotely and can choose the optimal location to get the best value for their pay.
Some young adventurers do the same too.

[[deleted user]]

I accept what you're saying to some extent, Nik, but we clearly have a big difference in economic views.

I completely reject the idea of moving elsewhere and renting out one's old real estate because it completely distorts the real estate market in one's old homeland, making it far more difficult for former compatriots to own real estate of their own. If one moves, one should sell. And if one intends to visit one's old homeland in the future, for old time's sake, stay in a hotel.

I know it won't go down well with many group members, but I absolutely oppose 2nd home ownership. I've seen it wreck some of the UK's loveliest areas, reducing them to ghost towns for 11 months of the year.

Buy to let is also a particular bugbear of mine - pricing young people out of a home of their own, by using a decent credit rating to BORROW money off a bank, without even having the money to buy the property outright. No thanks.

If people think they're financially smart, they should invest in stocks, shares, start-up businesses or precious metals. Houses are not investments, they're for living in - as our American friends would say - period.

[Nik]

All I’m saying is that the reasons for relocation are not necessarily a decline.
As of opposing 2-nd home ownership, I’d say it’s kinda “small” when dudes own hundreds of buildings, million hectares of land and what not. Those having 2-3 apartments are still a small fry.
There are ways to help young families to buy an apartment if there was a will.

[[deleted user]]

All points taken, Nik, I just don't regard investing in multiple homes as an ethical investment as there's always a knock-on negative effect for the local community - certainly in a densely populated area like the UK.

And don't get me started on the dudes who are buying real estate on the moon. Talk about having more money than you know what to do with. They're clearly not paying enough tax. Hopefully some aliens will camp out on the land as squatters :)

[J.]

For as long as I can remember, foreigners have criticized my home as backwards, corrupt, and belligerent to the point of dire financial straits. Y'all have a few points. But the moment that Europe or most of the Commonwealth feel threatened, y'all start screaming for us to spend the blood of OUR sons and daughters.

The Houthis have become a dangerous rogue nation. The US Navy should crush them
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023...

I do love how the editorial in a British paper is screaming for the US Navy to secure Europe's main canal for trade with Asia, while British men, women, and children are proudly singing, "Rule Britannia; Britannia rules the waves..."

[Adrian]

J. wrote: "Adrian wrote: "...a gun owning evangelical would make me extremely nervous..."

Are there no Mormons in Australia?"

A handful, but they're stripped of their guns at the airport.

[Adrian]

J. wrote: "For as long as I can remember, foreigners have criticized my home as backwards, corrupt, and belligerent to the point of dire financial straits. Y'all have a few points. But the moment that Europe ..."

Can you tell us of any US military interventions where American interests were not involved?

There are literally thousands of conflicts where they did not intervene, including the Malaya Crisis in the 50s when Australia asked the US to act under the old ANZUS treaty.

[Adrian]

Not that I'm criticising. I detest my country going selectively into conflicts (usually at the behest of allies).

I'd much prefer a policy of armed neutrality.

[J.]

Adrian wrote: "A handful, but they're stripped of their guns at the airport.

You think you can disarm Mormons?

That's cute.

You should read up on the Mormon Wars. It was wild. Basically, a teenager, in New York, started a religion. Led his followers to the Garden of Eden, in Missouri. After he died in an Illinois jail break/lynching, his lieutenant led them to Utah Territory. There, they got into a war with natives, locals, and the US government. Eventually, the US government got so tired of failure against the Mormons that they agreed to make Utah a state if the Mormons would lay off of the polygamy.

These people take being prepared for bad things as a personal, societal, and theological duty.

[Nik]

If Ken comes from the dynasty of whiskey importers (some suspect - bootleggers), with him the risk of another prohibition should be lower

[Graeme]

J. wrote: "I do love how the editorial in a British paper is screaming for the US Navy to secure Europe's main canal for trade with Asia, while British men, women, and children are proudly singing, "Rule Britannia; Britannia rules the waves..."..."

Securing the Suez canal has long been a key objective of our rulers. I think they task the US for the role due to the simple fact that the US has the military (albeit waning) might to execute the task while funding it from debt allocated against the US taxpayer.

It's a win for them without putting their own sons and daughters at risk nor spending a single cent of their own wealth to achieve a desired objective.

[Graeme]

Does anyone here think it's possible that the US presidential elections will not occur in 2024?

If so, likely, unlikely, etc...

[Nik]

The world 🌎 becomes less predictable. Many things deemed impossible or improbable prove forecasters wrong. Currently nothing endangers them happening on time, but who knows what happens in half a year? What does US law say if one of the contenders dies two weeks before, would it cause a postponement?
A month ago municipal elections were certain here, but they hadn’t happened and no certainty they’ll take place on a new date.