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World & Current Events > Want to talk about the 2024 election? Possible candidates? Platforms? Predictions?

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message 451: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) Beau wrote: "Papaphilly, I loved your use of the word 'quixotic'. It was a little bit cheeky but quite endearing.

However, don't fall into the trap of mistaking brave visionaries for nut jobs.

When answers g..."


The problem with most conspiracy theories is that they have more holes in them than the event they were conspiring about. They also require thousands of people to enact them none of whom ever talk about what really happened. Not something that modern society encourages.


message 452: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) For our US electors a question...

Will the current shenanigans over Speaker of the House have an impact on voter intentions in Senate and House races in 2024?


message 453: by [deleted user] (new)

Saw that this morning, Philip. I know Trump has endorsed Jordan recently but could the man himself actually get the position?

Now that would be box office! Trump as Mr Speaker. Lol.

And of course conspiracy theories offer explanations about what really happened. That's the whole point of them.

Regarding them being unwanted in modern society, I'd agree with you there. The modern elite want their populations unquestioing and docile, lapping up everything they say, because it enables them to continue to take us for fools.


message 454: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) Beau wrote: "Saw that this morning, Philip. I know Trump has endorsed Jordan recently but could the man himself actually get the position?

Now that would be box office! Trump as Mr Speaker. Lol.

And of course..."


I meant that trying to keep something secret is extremely difficult and modern social media and societal behaviour seems to be to blab about everything and anything. Thus a conspiracy would breakdown because someone would talk or more likely post about the event...


message 455: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) On Speaker.
McCarthy out but wants to try again?
Jordon out
Scalise out
Trump can't stand unless Republican party changes it's own rules on indictments
Most majority Republicans seem to spend more time posting about each other's foibles than looking for a solution

Democrats when not laughing have proposed their leader Jefferies as Speaker but need 7-8 Republican votes to make that happen. Some Republican's want Democrats to join and vote for a moderate candidate - just no idea who that is.


message 456: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments Did Epstein kill himself?


message 457: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) J. wrote: "Did Epstein kill himself?"

Who knows/cares. Prisoners committing suicide is not unusual in UK or USA.


message 458: by [deleted user] (new)

Ah, I see. We had this conversation on the covid thread a while back. Often, it's surprising how few people would actually need to be in the know. Human nature usually takes care of the rest.

Re this happening in the Internet age, why do you think the authorities are so keen on censorship and taking down 'misinformation'. It's a blanket term that cleverly lumps together the obvious BS with credible alternative viewpoints, in order to stop people asking inconvenient questions.

Nik provides a very rare forum that allows us to debate these things. Try posting anything off message on the BBC's HYS and you'll see what I mean.


message 459: by [deleted user] (new)

Poor response to J's Epstein question, Philip.

See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil is not conducive to an intelligent, enlightened society. But it is the elite's absolute dream society.


message 460: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) Beau wrote: "Ah, I see. We had this conversation on the covid thread a while back. Often, it's surprising how few people would actually need to be in the know. Human nature usually takes care of the rest.

Re t..."


An example form last few days of social media danger. A video posted showing rocket attacks in Gaza/Israel only the footage was from Syria internal. Also see young children in cages claiming to be form last w/e when actually several years old. Cue rage and stupidity.

How can the platforms be held to account or the posters for submitting lies and disinformation? Broadcasters and Newspapers can be held to account by regulators in UK and sued (if you are rich) in courts but that process is also misused. Should IMHO preface every post?

As for those in the know, Downing Street like the White House has hundred of workers. The respective government ministries have thousands, The advice drawn up to the politicians from advisers and civil servants goes through chains of people before its turned into a soundbite. Have you seen how many people are in the White House Situation Room or UK's COBRA?


message 461: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments Philip wrote: "Who knows/cares.

Those who seek justice for all of the victims of him and his associates.


message 462: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) J. wrote: "Philip wrote: "Who knows/cares.

Those who seek justice for all of the victims of him and his associates."


Apologies for my trite answer. His death should be investigated as should his actions when alive. He is an example of power and the use of NDAs and legal threats to prevent exposure. I am sure that several of his co-conspirators would want him dead to prevent more evidence coming out. That doesn't mean he was murdered. Given the state of prisons in both UK and US negligence of care is more likely. Suicide watch is a common status of many prisoners. Even when under that status some still succeed in ending their own lives.


message 463: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 19850 comments An old story, but can someone really commence suicide with TWO shots in the head? https://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/06/wo...
Undoubtedly, a lot is being hidden from public knowledge. Sometimes what we are reported is convincing and makes sense. Other times, leaves a lot of questions unanswered and generally doesn't stich together well. When falsifications became easier with techs, it's harder to get to the truth and understand what's really happening at times.


message 464: by [deleted user] (new)

Western MSM passing off pictures from aftermath of Indian gas explosion as people dying from covid was another good eg of misinformation. Thanks to the eagle-eyed Indian who spotted it, they had to take those pics down.

Back on topic and in relation to this thread (RFK Jr in particular), powerful people who don't like answering questions have a penchant for dismissing valid points as conspiracy theories. A growing number of people are waking up to this fact.


message 465: by Scout (new)

Scout (goodreadscomscout) | 8071 comments I like what you said, Beau: "powerful people who don't like answering questions have a penchant for dismissing valid points as conspiracy theories. A growing number of people are waking up to this fact." I've never been afraid of considering that there really are conspiracies at work in government. It makes sense to me to question what we're told by those in power, those who want to stay in power.

My gut tells me that Trump loves this country and will put it first. That's what he did as president. There's no evidence of that in Biden's speech or actions. I've heard that he now thinks the wall is a good idea, after destroying our sovereignty on his first day in office. How anyone can see him as an effective president is beyond my comprehension.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gppiu...


message 466: by Philip (last edited Oct 17, 2023 03:46AM) (new)

Philip (phenweb) Arizona - not a Trump case but this time a complaint against Dominion voting machines that went to appeal

https://www.democracydocket.com/cases...

The article has the links to the court documents and filings.

Basically, Republican candidate for governor, Kari Lake, and state Rep. Mark Finchem (R), a candidate for Arizona secretary of state, challenged Arizona’s use of electronic voting machines. They lost appealed and have now lost again. They seem to have ignored the $750m Dominion defamation case. Not sure how this will apply to 2024 elections for those roles but I'm sure their opponents inside GOP and Dems will use it.

Adding actual court finding as citation

https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-co...


message 467: by [deleted user] (new)

Back in the day, when the West was sane, voters put a cross on a bit of paper, stuck it in a box, and then a team of volunteers, under supervision, separated the bits of paper according to whom the votes had been cast for.

It was simple. It was transparent. Recounts were easy, in the event of a dispute. The system was virtually impossible to rig.

But that wasn't enough for the happy chappy modenisers, determined to make their mark on history, was it? No, they had to introduce electronic voting, some of which doesn't just give computers responsibility for counting the votes, but actually uses a touchscreen method of casting votes too.

It is not transparent. It does not inspire confidence in the system. And even if it's not helping rig elections, its lack of relative transparency can be used by people to cast aspersions about unfavourable results. It's bad for democracy.

End the arguments once and for all. Bring back pen, paper and people.


message 468: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) Beau wrote: "Back in the day, when the West was sane, voters put a cross on a bit of paper, stuck it in a box, and then a team of volunteers, under supervision, separated the bits of paper according to whom the..."

It's not electronic voting its electronic counting or tabulation.

AZ use tabulation of paper ballots just like a bank machine counts notes.

From verdict
"Under the Arizona election system, voters mark their choices on paper ballots, which are then fed into electronic machines for tabulation.

After tabulation by machines, the paper ballots cast by each voter are retained for post-election audits and possible recounts. After an election, political party representatives conduct a sample hand count of the paper ballots under the oversight of county elections departments"

In this case the plaintiffs claimed irregularities were possible in the election they lost - but were unable to provide evidence of such. They also claimed damages without evidence then tried to change it to future election losses and damages because the machines might be tampered with. They lost on all counts at first hearing then this appeal.


message 469: by [deleted user] (new)

Philip, as I said in most post above, some systems use electronic counting, others also use touchscreen electronic voting.

Both systems are used in the US, depending on state. Neither seems to inspire confidence. Why not use people instead?


message 470: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments Why don't we go back to paper ballots and hand counts?

I believe y'all are familiar with Dominion Voting Systems. If not, they're the ones that sued Fox News.
https://www.opensecrets.org/federal-l...

Wow, it's not even an election year, yet.


message 471: by [deleted user] (new)

Extraordinary! Didn't even consider the lobbying implications. Can't remember BIC biros having to do that before we 'advanced'.


message 472: by Scout (new)

Scout (goodreadscomscout) | 8071 comments In Georgia, we vote electronically on a touch screen, but there's growing support for going back to paper ballots.

https://georgiarecorder.com/2023/08/0...

I'm all for it. How do you have a true recount if all the votes are on a computer somewhere owned by some corporation that bribed the government to get the contract?


message 473: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) I don't know who Dean Phillips is but apparently he's going to challenge Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/i/status/17168427...


message 474: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments Biden will not be on the New Hampshire primary ballot this election
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024...

It's my way or the highway, you lying dog-faced pony soldiers.


message 475: by [deleted user] (new)

Intruder arrested twice after trying to break into RFK Jr's home:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...

RFK Jr is a serious candidate to become President, currently polling at around 20%.

Come on Biden, give the man Secret Service protection. What are you waiting/ hoping for - to reduce the field to a 2-horse race?


message 476: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments I have a couple of questions for y'all. We seem to be heading into a referendum on whom had the worse failing as a president, Trump or Biden. So, what are the greatest failures of each president? And which failures are worse?

From my perspective, Trump's biggest failure was not draining the swamp. If he had started his presidency by conducting a purge of the alphabet agencies, the second, third, and fourth years of his term would have been fairly quiet. Instead, his presidency was beset by constant backbiting from hostile actors within his own government.

Biden's greatest failing is his misunderstanding of deterrence. He understands that we field the most powerful military the world has ever seen. But he doesn't understand that deterrence isn't how sharp you keep your knife. Deterrence is when your enemies believe that you will use that knife on them. When Biden just cut and ran in Afghanistan, the world saw that he has no balls. Their view of Biden as wuss has emboldened them. If he had shown good order in the withdrawal, our rivals would be a little less cavalier in their actions.

Which was worse? Trump's failure undermined our provisions for domestic tranquility. Biden's failure has undermined the bargaining position of the West and therefore increased global hostilities. I despise mass Graves more than government infighting, so Uncle Joe is worse.

What do y'all think?


message 477: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) J. wrote: "I have a couple of questions for y'all. We seem to be heading into a referendum on whom had the worse failing as a president, Trump or Biden. So, what are the greatest failures of each president? A..."

J, My complaints with Trump are many, but he was a change candidate who tried to replace the swamp. unfortunately, this was with his own worse creatures. My animosity is not just because of his approach but in particular his treatment of allies. Biden may have screwed up the final Afghan withdrawal but Trump had already announced the surrender. International agreements are hard to negotiate and Trump destroyed hard won consensus on Iran and Paris while insulting all his allies.

Biden is a swamp creature, but at least he doesn't insult allies and impose trade sanctions on them like Trump did with steel amongst many others.

They are both awful, in my view and both too old and infirm. Biden, however does not face 91 criminal indictments. His performance in the last few weeks has been better than okay. Just like his support for Ukraine. Trump kowtowed to Putin at every opportunity, when he wasn't doing the same to Xi and little rocket man. Xi only got criticised when he wanted someone to blame for COVID

Biden is marginally better but neither serve the World or the USA well. Beau will promote RFK as marginally better than both T or B. Outside these we can wait for some other candidate to declare. Maybe Liz Chaney will continue her progress. Hopefully without too much input from her father- the architect of Iraq and Afghanistan failures - still his companies made money.

An awful choice, I wish you all had better options. Still you could be stuck like us with corrupt Sunak surrounded by incompetent sycophants and his bland opponents. You could have Macron or some other EU incompetent.

I suppose we should all be thankful we don't have worse although the GOP in speaker choice look to be trying. He makes Ayatollah's look sane.


message 478: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 19850 comments For me it would be hard to evaluate what Trump should’ve done internally, but didn’t. As far as I remember the establishment didn’t accept him well and maybe some attempted to sabotage his initiatives. There were scandals with his own team too. Some resigned or were fired, I don’t remember. “America first” wasn’t accepted well by some of the allies.
He honestly tried to achieve a deal with Kim, but it didn’t go far.
He withdrew from a deal with Iran and was prompt to liquidate suleimani once an American was killed. He meant to be more assertive to prevent Iran going nuclear, yet he lost elections and Iran sprang forward. Indeed, under Trump the world was relatively “quiet “ and aggressive dudes largely chose not to mess with him.
I’m not sure his tax reform benefitted common Americans on par with rich and corporations. However, what overwhelmed him was corona. Not a likable person, as he is, he had not that bad a tenure. I think the conclusion of his term was probably the biggest failure when he chose to encourage supporters not to recognize elections’ results.
Yes, Biden, as you’ve mentioned had seriously undermined the deterrence and that’s his biggest failure. His contribution and dealing with inflation was far from exemplary too. I don’t understand the striking inconsistency of how hard it is to get to the US by air even for tourists and how easy it is on foot for not tourists.
Trump was much more involved personally in steering the wheel than Biden. Unfortunately, both come with a big bag of problems that I think many would prefer none of them ran.


message 479: by [deleted user] (new)

J, I agree with Philip that both are v poor candidates. RFK Jr has his oddities but at least his heart seems to be in the right place.

In terms of failures, I have to qualify this by saying I have a poorer knowledge of US politics than other active group members but...

From what I saw, Trump attempted to make good his 2016 promises. He succeeded in some areas but failed in others. He probably didn't realise the tentacles of the swamp creatures reached quite as far as they do. To some extent, I think the court cases show how far they stretch. It was always going to be an impossible task to drain the swamp, certainly in one term.

His biggest failure was probably his confrontational attitude - both at home and abroad. He created a lot more division amongst ordinary people than was necessary. He appears to speak before he thinks.

The reason I prefer him to Biden, despite the above, is that I despise everything Biden represents. It's more than just a personality or style thing.

As the swamp's current figurehead, he is the leader of a group that is perverting all the values I hold dear. Whether it's the creep towards totalitarianism, cancel culture, pushing digital currencies, cackhanded military interventions, faux social justice concerns while increasing inequalities, covid cultism, the hijacking of the environmental movement to enrich already rich people through the zero carbon scam, or the general denigration of Western values and history, this whole movement is based on a pack of lies and is sending us to hell in a handcart. They are completely destroying a way of life that, while far from perfect, was by far the least worst option available. Biggest individual failure? Just being what he is.


message 480: by Philip (new)

Philip (phenweb) Pence throws in the towel

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-c...


message 481: by Graeme (last edited Oct 30, 2023 04:30PM) (new)

Graeme Rodaughan J. wrote: "Did Epstein kill himself?"

My take....

On the twelfth day of Christmas my deep state sent to me

Twelve Cameras Failing
Eleven Agents Lurking
Ten Locks Opening
Nine Oligarchs Worrying
Eight Politicians Twitching
Seven Insiders Whispering
Six Prisoners Listening
Five ... Sleeping ... Guards
Four Mortuary Attendants Staring
Three Lawyers Watching
Two Doctors Examining
And an Assassin with a Bed Sheet


message 482: by Nik (new)

Nik Krasno | 19850 comments Good one, Graeme, the most realistic description of what and how it happened


message 483: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments I apologize for that sidetrack. Accusations of "conspiracy theory" are the cheapest well poisonings, and I'm tired of their banality and uneven application.

Seriously, January 6th was the gravest threat to the Republic since 9/11, and it was carried out by a cabal of the Evil Orange Man's fascist confederates. But if you point out that we know the Steele Dossier was commissioned by the Clinton Campaign from one of the guys who drummed up the BS Iraqi WMD report, was delivered to the FBI by a Clintonista through an act of perjury, was dismissed by the MSM until it was pushed by the Clintonistas, and the result of all of this was an attempt to depose a lawfully elected president...


message 484: by Papaphilly (last edited Nov 04, 2023 08:59AM) (new)

Papaphilly | 5042 comments As for Trump and Biden failures, we can argue policy all day. I think the biggest factor is that they are who they are.

Trump's biggest failure is he cannot not be Trump. He is truly one of the most irritating people. It is so bad that he has turned others against him because of who he is. Even when he has wins or does good, he cannot get credit because he has bothered everybody to the point they would rather see it die than give him kudos.

With Biden, he is the swamp. He has been at the game so long, he is the swamp. He is exactly what is wrong with everything right now, because he is in Washington far too long. I suspect if the Republicans hold Congress, he gets impeached. He is being upheld because the Democrats and media that back him cannot stomach the idea of another Trump term.

Now, in all fairness, I am not a fan of either guy. I think they both try, but nothing is working right now. The country is pretty evenly divided and that is not going to change this year, although I do think it returns closer to the center in the next few years as history suggests.


message 485: by [deleted user] (new)

Love the song, Graeme!

J's first paragraph is spot on - very well put.

I agree with everything Papaphilly says too. Nice summary. Just as I see it from over here. Hope to see Biden impeached and a return to the centre ground.


message 486: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments DeSantis has hit the podcast circuit.
https://www.youtube.com/live/ThxqH1E9...


message 487: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Thanks Nik and Beau, edited the above "Four ..." missing a verb.


message 488: by [deleted user] (new)

It's a shrewd move, J. He can get his message across without publicity-seeking simpletons like Ramaswamy hogging the limelight.

His campaign seems to be gathering momentum. Although he's no longer my number 1 choice, I still think he'd make an excellent POTUS.

Interesting talk of his agent/ marketing team previously holding him back. Would explain why outsiders like myself wrote him off. Pleased to say it's looking like I spoke too soon.


message 489: by [deleted user] (new)

RFK Jr campaign donation information:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11...

As a more astute political commentator than Politico, I know their conclusions are more wishful thinking than reality based, but the figures are interesting.

Note the amount donated by large donors with no recent donation history, as well as the number of small dollar donations. RFK Jr is really tapping into that large group of people, right across the board, who are fed up of Trump vs Biden and want a return to grown-up politics.

I must say, though, that the Republicans who are portraying Kennedy as a 'typical Democrat' are playing it very smart as this will not only shore up their own support, who are more open to 'conspiracy' angles, but also encourage moderate Dems, who perhaps might have been put off by the 'conspiracy' stories, to consider giving him a go.

All of which is bad news for Brandon.


message 490: by Scout (new)

Scout (goodreadscomscout) | 8071 comments Liked your post 483, J. Great summary of conspiracies against Trump. Yes, there are such things as conspiracies. They're not just theories.


message 491: by [deleted user] (new)

Faced with a choice between the evil Biden Deep State Swamp and former President Trump, now armed with an unauthorised pistol and showing signs of insanity, Americans appear caught between a rock and a hard place.

But don't despair. There is a way out of this mess:

https://www.kennedy24.com/

Yes, RFK Jr might have his oddities but, ultimately, he is a good, pragmatic man, whose heart is in the right place. He would make a great US President and would be an inspiration to the wider Western world.

Interestingly, he is already the most popular candidate amongst young people, who are, of course, our future.

So, why not join the ever-growing group of moderate US patriots, who are taking the sensible route to a stronger, happier America, by offering their support to Robert Kennedy - the latest in a long line of great American statesmen?

God Bless America.


message 492: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan Regarding Kennedy.

"When the hypothetical 2024 general election matchup broadens to include environmental lawyer and anti- vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. who is running as an independent candidate, Biden receives 39 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22 percent support.

Among independents, 36 percent support Kennedy, 31 percent support Trump, and 30 percent support Biden."


REF: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?rele...

That's a serious level of support, and there is still time for RFK-Jr to build on these numbers.

PREDICTION: Whichever main party loses the 2024 election, RFK-Jr will be publically blamed for the loss by the losing candidate and their followers. Why? It's a rare politician who has the integrity and courage to take full responsibility for their party's performance in an important election.

NOTE: The pollsters can't help but label RFK-Jr as an 'anti-vaccine activist,' which is a slur as his position on vaccination is nuanced - not some blanket 'all vaccines are bad.' I.e. The pollsters are biased against RFK-Jr.


message 493: by [deleted user] (new)

Good post, Graeme. I agree with everything you say but 2 slight caveats...

1. I've seen polls with RFK Jr primarily taking votes off each of the 2 parties. IMO, despite what some of those polls say, he will eventually take more off the DNC for the simple reason that he is (in essence) a Democrat.

2. I appreciate that most serious commentators regard the presidential election as a 2 horse race but even in the land of Dominion voting machines, no votes have yet been cast. If enough Americans are tired of Biden vs Trump, and want to give RFK Jr a shot, he wins and becomes president. And why not?

On a personal level, I'm jealous of Americans having this opportunity. I would love it if we had a party, polling at 20% +, espousing RFK JR's values. Alas, we don't. We're stuck with dumb vs dummer.


message 494: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments RFK Jr is supposed to be in Annapolis, MD, today. Let's see if he mention his uncle's exploits as the commander of PT-109.


message 495: by [deleted user] (new)

I had no idea what you were on about there, J, so looked it up. Interesting bit of history.

For anyone who might be disillusioned by being told to choose between evil Biden and insane Trump, here's a recent interview with RFK Jr, which he has described as 'maybe the most honest and fair window into my candidacy I've seen so far'...

https://www.deseret.com/2023/11/1/239...

See, there is an extremely attractive and credible alternative. All you need to do is vote for it.


message 496: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments The question is how closely he'll try to tie his candidacy to his uncle's presidency.


message 497: by [deleted user] (new)

It's a tough one. Although the Kennedy name should help rather than hinder his campaign, I would think he'd be better off not trading on the name of his father or uncle, so that he comes across as his own man. And everyone already knows who he is so no need for him to bother emphasising it.


message 498: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments As I've said before, the only polls that matter are on Election Day. However, I also enjoy watching Philip ranting about the Evil Orange Man.

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us...


message 499: by Graeme (new)

Graeme Rodaughan J. wrote: "As I've said before, the only polls that matter are on Election Day. However, I also enjoy watching Philip ranting about the Evil Orange Man...."

Tyranny requires subjects for the '2-minute hate,' process.


message 500: by J. (new)

J. Gowin | 7975 comments There's always another Goldstein.


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