EU: Where to?

[Nik]

After UK's exit, Germany - more and France - less are the remaining heavyweights within a 27 countries bloc/union. EU is still a coveted prospect by poorer European countries, hoping to receive additional funding, but maybe less attractive to its self-sustained and wealthier members. EU's bureaucracy and decision-making, dependent on unanimity, are well known and offer safety to each individual members for its position to not be overlooked, on the one part, but making sometimes making even banal things impossible, on the other.
Now, Germany seeks to change individual veto principle: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/... .
Bearing the above in mind, will the Union grow or shrink? Will Germany try to capitalize on its special standing of Union's financial anchor?

[Philip]

To join (Scotland pay attention and Catalonia independents)

Must join Euro and Central bank
Must accept Commission majority verdicts which already apply on Euro area
Muct accept Central Bank on interest rates and economic measures regardless of economic harm. e.g. inflation in Germany will dictate your interest rate - see Greek financial crisis
Euro Army - who knows
European Defence model regardless of NATO including allowing Neutral countries like Sweden and Ireland to overrule agreed NATO policy

etc etc

Of course you will get grants for you pet politicians area motorway or redevelopment project paid for by the net contributors and allowed to send a bunch of diplomats to Brussels and 5 times annual salary of national politician. Get to vote fro Euro Parliament too who pay 2-3 times national salary and move every few weeks. They can't vote on anything binding btw but its good to talk...

Where do we resign...

[Ian]

I suspect Germany will eventually get sick of being the donor of first and last resort. Germany does have the export advantage that the Euro does not keep appreciating like the old D-mark did, thanks to the likes of the Pigs. There will always be weaker countries that want "free money", without appreciating there is an actual price. If the Greeks can put up with it, I guess most can, Greece was treated worse than most others.

[Philip]

Another row underway over Northern Ireland as EU attempts to create single Ireland by imposing barriers between rest of UK and NI to protect Republic of Ireland and EU single market....

Banning sausages from UK to NI now...

[Ian]

Philip wrote: "Banning sausages from UK to NI now..."

Nothing like getting down to the important stuff :-) Those dreaded British sausages could well bring down the EU.

[Nik]

Poland claims a corona stimulus package's equivalent from Germany as reparations:
https://www.fox6now.com/news/poland-g...
Not a big deal, really. Will undoubtedly cement the union

[Ian]

Poland wants free money! Well, that is a surprise. The fact that Germany paid is fairly clear. Ever been to Breslau lately?

[Nik]

Renewed calls for EU "autonomy" and self-sustainability: https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...
Couldn't resist adding a juicy comment from Trump:
https://www.politico.eu/article/donal...

[Ian]

I suspect Macron is caught in a bind because the EU is in a genuine energy crunch. Trump's diplomacy style is, at the very least, different.

[Nik]

After dominating the world for centuries, Europe might be still entrapped in post WW2 euphoria and risks to be anywhere btw rendered irrelevant to eaten alive by aggressive tribes sometime in the future. That's what Joshka Ficsher apparently thinks: https://www.project-syndicate.org/com...

[Ian]

In my opinion, the linked article highlights the problem quite well, but does not quite locate the right answer. If it wants to maintain its cultural variety and not integrate, it has to become a Confederation of small neutral states, like a collection of Switzerlands. Europe's problem is its economy; it tries to be one economy but behaves as a number of smaller ones - it needs to make up its mind which. I think the smaller ones might do the trick, but that would be the end of the Euro. There is no right answer. The Europeans have to pick a plan that might work and make it work, but the Germans, say, cannot make the weaker economies do anything. That is why I think the Confederation of small independent neutral countries might work better.

[Nik]

Chief EU's diplomat view: https://www.theguardian.com/world/202... although I imagine many would know better

[Ian]

I suspect parts of Europe will swing towards the right, not so much because of fer, but because current governments are unpopular.I am thinking in part of France, where Macron seems to have protests all over the place.

But I also think the UK will go left, and the election is Starmer's to lose.